Actually getting started investing (and some analysis paralysis)

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Michael_00005
Posts: 89
Joined: Thu May 04, 2017 12:26 pm
Location: East coast USA

Re: Actually getting started investing (and some analysis paralysis)

Post by Michael_00005 » Sat May 12, 2018 1:47 pm

Farm_or wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 7:50 am
Insider following. I've done quite a bit of independent research on this idea. I found out the hard way that it doesn't work so well short term, but what does? I think it is a valid consideration when including other fundamentals.
Buying simply because it's an insider trade is lazy. From time to time, I'll use insider trading as a filter to narrow down the search. Stocks that drift to the lower end of their trading range, or something that drops owing to negative news, but does not effect the fundamentals is attractive. That happened with FB, not too long ago. As an example I put a small amount into RDN shortly after seeing insider trading (recently), because it looked like a case of over selling.

I"m not big on the US market long term, so the intent is more short term (quarter to quarter).

The following link can be helpful, you can see who's investing, and if it's a sizable investment... I generally ignore token investment amounts.
https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?tc=1


To the question at the top, sit down and write out your thoughts:
1. What if I don't invest? Your answer
2. What are all of my investment options, include doing nothing and how do I feel about each (rate them)?
3. What if I invest and lose / gain? are you comfortable potentially losing money, if so how much?
4. What do you want from life and how does money fit into it?
5. Write out scenarios together and give them scores, then add them up and see what you come up with
6. Put some time into it and then start a new tread and give feedback, maybe it will be helpful to someone else.

Fear Not, or have "fear" of living a wasted life, any of us could die tomorrow.
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Michael_00005
Posts: 89
Joined: Thu May 04, 2017 12:26 pm
Location: East coast USA

Insider trading

Post by Michael_00005 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:12 pm

Regarding Insider trading, on May, 12 (as noted in above post)
RDN closed at $15.84
it closed today at $19.48.

While you don't win every time using this strategy, it's worked very well for me in the past. The insider trading tipped me off to the opportunity, and a little research gave the incentive to make a purchase. I have since closed out the position.

trfie
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 12:35 am

Re: Actually getting started investing (and some analysis paralysis)

Post by trfie » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:16 pm

Michael_00005 wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 5:14 pm
  • I've done very well finding a dip and buying 2-6 weeks prior to quarterly earnings on individual stocks. Especially with stocks that have a trend to beat estimates like FB. Then sell and wait for the next Q earnings.
Did not work quite so well for FB this last time.

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Michael_00005
Posts: 89
Joined: Thu May 04, 2017 12:26 pm
Location: East coast USA

Short term - Long term - mixed strategy

Post by Michael_00005 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:48 pm

Did not work quite so well for FB this last time.
It worked great, as I sold prior to earnings. Very often I'll do this when a stock is soaring like FB did prior to earnings. But had I got caught holding onto the stock over earnings, it would simply be a hold and wait. More often it means it's time to buy more, FB is a solid company IMO. Currently I'm looking for another entry point with this one, hopefully in the next 6 weeks. For the most part I'm cash sitting out the summer.

Now if you read one of my past posts you would see I got caught holding onto GOV from Nov. 2017. The 1st of current holding position was purchased in the $17-18 range, currently it's $16. As I liked the stock when the price dropped it simply looked like a better buy, so the holding has been increased... incrementally. But this one is easy because of the nice dividend.

You don't always win with stock picks short term, or even long term... don't expect it! Only recently I started selling some of a position in a stock that dropped almost 50%, that was over two years ago. This year it's been taking off, and likely will continue to - so when the profits start to come in then it's time to shrink the position and reassess.

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