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jacob wrote: ↑
Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:01 pm
A conspiracy theory can be created as a coherent set of disinformation. It can also be a coherent explanation of information. It can even be an explanation of misinformation(*)
. To some degree these are increasingly bleeding into each other as disinformation takes hold and people become increasingly unable to tell the difference what true/false and fact/lie whether that's out of ignorance or sheer exhaustion.
No disagreement with that.
I would tend to call your first option simply disinformation, or maybe propaganda. A conspiracy could certainly be behind the disinformation. I think the problem as I see it is that anytime conspiracy is mentioned it becomes conflated with the popular media/political usage of "conspiracy theory" which is often a smear against opponents; and when uttered by the appropriate ideological authority, adherents can safely ignore whatever the subject is and maintain their orthodoxy. Ironically, perhaps, the label becomes a tool for disinformation--sort of like "Nothing to see here, everyone move along."
I happen to think there is credible rationale to suspect nefarious covert conspiracies have occurred recently in our government. While facts and evidence are being gathered these are conspiracy theories. Time will tell, but I'm not sure the ongoing investigations are simply about disinformation. I guess maybe I've wandered off track of the thread, so I'll steer clear of this one going forward.
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The earliest "year in review" from David Collum that I can find is for 2010. Does anyone know of earlier posts (and can possibly provide a link?) or an archive, possibly?
I like to make an exercise of matching a person's opinions/predictions from long ago to their subsequent performance and I like the way Collum communicates. Unfortunately, he strikes me as super pessimistic BUT also seems to be an idol/hero figure to the doomer/prepper community in general. I have a feeling that his personal financial performance since the start of the bull market is probably very poor in comparison to any random indexer who cashed out yesterday... I digress.
I've read the entirety of Warren Buffett's letters to shareholders (the optimistic take) and I want to read the entirety of Collum's letters (the pessimistic take). Thanks in advance!
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A ten year streak of writing such lengthy review is nothing to sneeze at. The peak prosperity (which dates to about the same time) people love their 100% gold in the same way that the bogleheads love their 100% index funds. (In practice, they just might have other assets, but at least that's the official party line.) Going back to earlier peak oilers, gold also featured heavily: The general attitude in that community is to "buy physical assets" => paid off homestead + gold with the leftovers. This is to the point of cashing out 401ks and the likes.
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they've got a good idea but the next stable asset won't be gold. I agree with those who argue that gvts or corporations might get on the blockchain or otherwise create a crypto solution. No idea how to invest for that though
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Why is it necessary or rational to be either generally pessimistic or optimistic? I definitely do not recommend myself as a model of investment wisdom, but I think it is more fun and interesting to invest in a lot of different realms. For instance, my very small nut is currently fairly equally divided between rare books, vacant urban real estate, a very specific investment in blockchain, and a very specific investment in biotech, because I prefer being a relatively big fish is several small ponds than vice-versa. Index funds and gold just seem super boring to me.