"the budget is there. I'll do my best to spend it.
*Snip*
Inflation is eroding our wealth. "
The answer is right in front of you, yet you seem to choose to ignore it.
What I Spend
Re: What I Spend
I did a rough calculation of real returns, since retirement.
3/1/2021 - Baseline Retirement: 0%
1/1/2022 - Peak nominal net worth: 0%
9/1/2022 - Now: -22% - The bulk of this drop happened by 6/1/2022.
Saving $5-10k is noise against those losses. Bailing the titanic. It is a false sense of control.
On the other hand, spending that money massively increases our ability to buy quality of life. Maybe a 5x multiplier.
In a failure scenario, that extra money is irrelevant. Maybe I get 11 frugal years instead of 10 rich ones. I'd pick the latter. Especially if I'm forced back to work. I'd have no regrets over using my healthiest years to do fun, expensive things.
Given that my goal is to maximize the number of good days, I think staying the course is most rational.
I paid $100 for my wife and I to do a river float this morning. 10 years from now - is that river dry? Do I have physical capacity for the activity? Am I even alive? If the economy doesn't recover (the failure scenario), it's much more likely those questions have negative answers.
So yeah, I feel poor. But I'm doing my best to optimally spend the modeled SWR. I think that's part of an effective retirement. Better to hit 80 rich in memories, but financially broke, than the opposite.
3/1/2021 - Baseline Retirement: 0%
1/1/2022 - Peak nominal net worth: 0%
9/1/2022 - Now: -22% - The bulk of this drop happened by 6/1/2022.
Saving $5-10k is noise against those losses. Bailing the titanic. It is a false sense of control.
On the other hand, spending that money massively increases our ability to buy quality of life. Maybe a 5x multiplier.
In a failure scenario, that extra money is irrelevant. Maybe I get 11 frugal years instead of 10 rich ones. I'd pick the latter. Especially if I'm forced back to work. I'd have no regrets over using my healthiest years to do fun, expensive things.
Given that my goal is to maximize the number of good days, I think staying the course is most rational.
I paid $100 for my wife and I to do a river float this morning. 10 years from now - is that river dry? Do I have physical capacity for the activity? Am I even alive? If the economy doesn't recover (the failure scenario), it's much more likely those questions have negative answers.
So yeah, I feel poor. But I'm doing my best to optimally spend the modeled SWR. I think that's part of an effective retirement. Better to hit 80 rich in memories, but financially broke, than the opposite.
Re: What I Spend
I discovered my local forest preserve connects to dozens of miles of paved bike path. Maybe more.
I took a longer ride yesterday, turning around only because I was tracking to double my prior max distance:
Most of the paved path is a straight, level line. It runs along a river, so there are almost zero road crossings. At a certain point, I found myself wondering - is this really any different than pedaling in a gym? Yes there's nature on both sides. But it's the same view, for miles. The pavement is pristine. There's nothing complex. No decisions to be made.
If I stick to those easy paths, biking requires zero new physical skills. Only that I endure. It makes me reflect on what role I want biking to play in my life. Should I expect mental challenge from my exercise?
At the same time, this morning I was running home on the trail. Having some urgency, I decided to cut through a dirt path near my house. I've walked it dozens of times, minimum. But rushing, I tripped on a root and fell. My toe is hurt (hopefully not injured), my knee is skinned, etc. Despite my urgency, I had to limp home.
That has me thinking about the deficiency in my fitness. My 5 miles on a smooth limestone trail is nothing like @MountainFrugal's 5 miles racing through the mountain. Ignoring our speed gaps, his activity requires constant decision making. There's a whole different layer of complexity and mental stimulation.
I imagine that difference does a ton of good things for mental health. My outside is so manicured, that it's not much different than the gym. Something essential is missing. I'm not getting the full human experience.
I took a longer ride yesterday, turning around only because I was tracking to double my prior max distance:
Most of the paved path is a straight, level line. It runs along a river, so there are almost zero road crossings. At a certain point, I found myself wondering - is this really any different than pedaling in a gym? Yes there's nature on both sides. But it's the same view, for miles. The pavement is pristine. There's nothing complex. No decisions to be made.
If I stick to those easy paths, biking requires zero new physical skills. Only that I endure. It makes me reflect on what role I want biking to play in my life. Should I expect mental challenge from my exercise?
At the same time, this morning I was running home on the trail. Having some urgency, I decided to cut through a dirt path near my house. I've walked it dozens of times, minimum. But rushing, I tripped on a root and fell. My toe is hurt (hopefully not injured), my knee is skinned, etc. Despite my urgency, I had to limp home.
That has me thinking about the deficiency in my fitness. My 5 miles on a smooth limestone trail is nothing like @MountainFrugal's 5 miles racing through the mountain. Ignoring our speed gaps, his activity requires constant decision making. There's a whole different layer of complexity and mental stimulation.
I imagine that difference does a ton of good things for mental health. My outside is so manicured, that it's not much different than the gym. Something essential is missing. I'm not getting the full human experience.
Re: What I Spend
Are you getting at some nature/Nature argument here in talking about the "full human experience"? Or just saying you want to make more technical decisions while running?Scott 2 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:16 amThat has me thinking about the deficiency in my fitness. My 5 miles on a smooth limestone trail is nothing like @MountainFrugal's 5 miles racing through the mountain. Ignoring our speed gaps, his activity requires constant decision making. There's a whole different layer of complexity and mental stimulation.
I imagine that difference does a ton of good things for mental health. My outside is so manicured, that it's not much different than the gym. Something essential is missing. I'm not getting the full human experience.
Re: What I Spend
Technical decisions.
The nature vs. Nature argument is moot in my case. I've never known Nature. I don't have access. In my area, if it's not forest preserve or golf course, it's paved. Even the mountain bike trails, while more complex, are entirely man made.
I'm annoyed a slight irregularity in the trail surface took me out. For all my attention to strength and cardio, there's a movement blind spot. While the barefoot shoes let me feel ground texture, it's so regular and perfect, that my mind disassociates. Same on the paved bike trails.
At that point, why bother going outside? It's not like I enjoy the humidity or sunshine. Once my mind wanders off, the surroundings are irrelevant. Part of me likes this answer. Exercising indoors is easier and cheaper. Do I care about the other stuff? Maybe I embrace my strengths.
More of me thinks about types of progression. v02 max was the original target. That lead to chasing hours near my aerobic threshold. Taking that outside raised the constraint of weak feet and ankles. Now complex surfaces highlight a lack of proprioception. The dull ache in my knee is a solid reminder.
Parts of my brain aren't working well. I could change what I'm doing, to turn them on. Run the mountain bike trails. Favor my hybrid bike on the limestone trails. Pay for mountain bike access to the pump course. Practice falling and rolling. There's a lot of low hanging fruit. Some of it seems akin to lifting a kettlebell, instead of a machine. Little downside.
Interestingly - One of the autofills for my web search was "proprioception... and autism". While I don't want to blame my neurodivergence for every weakness, that gives a stronger argument for training the trait. It could offer unexpected benefits. Maybe there are compensatory behaviors to learn, similar to bolstering my weak executive function with a digital planner.
The nature vs. Nature argument is moot in my case. I've never known Nature. I don't have access. In my area, if it's not forest preserve or golf course, it's paved. Even the mountain bike trails, while more complex, are entirely man made.
I'm annoyed a slight irregularity in the trail surface took me out. For all my attention to strength and cardio, there's a movement blind spot. While the barefoot shoes let me feel ground texture, it's so regular and perfect, that my mind disassociates. Same on the paved bike trails.
At that point, why bother going outside? It's not like I enjoy the humidity or sunshine. Once my mind wanders off, the surroundings are irrelevant. Part of me likes this answer. Exercising indoors is easier and cheaper. Do I care about the other stuff? Maybe I embrace my strengths.
More of me thinks about types of progression. v02 max was the original target. That lead to chasing hours near my aerobic threshold. Taking that outside raised the constraint of weak feet and ankles. Now complex surfaces highlight a lack of proprioception. The dull ache in my knee is a solid reminder.
Parts of my brain aren't working well. I could change what I'm doing, to turn them on. Run the mountain bike trails. Favor my hybrid bike on the limestone trails. Pay for mountain bike access to the pump course. Practice falling and rolling. There's a lot of low hanging fruit. Some of it seems akin to lifting a kettlebell, instead of a machine. Little downside.
Interestingly - One of the autofills for my web search was "proprioception... and autism". While I don't want to blame my neurodivergence for every weakness, that gives a stronger argument for training the trait. It could offer unexpected benefits. Maybe there are compensatory behaviors to learn, similar to bolstering my weak executive function with a digital planner.
-
mountainFrugal
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Fri May 07, 2021 2:26 pm
Re: What I Spend
I still fall running, but as you suggested, you can learn to roll to dissipate the energy of the fall. I usually fall on not so technical trails when I am not thinking about the present moment, but going off in my head working on something. Then some asshole root decided to grow there for the last 30 years got all up in my way 
. You are not alone in this friend. Falling is a reality of trail running. It is a reminder to come back to the movement. Similar in yoga... coming back to the breath. Come back to your form. Moving quickly (and safely!) over uneven ground is a skill to be developed just like any other. The 100 up exercise can help with more subtle weight shifts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1EBrxUCiGs . The 100 exercise will also help train you to pick up your feet more readily and more easily clear obstacles. If you get better at it, your balance on one foot will improve. The cadence and "feel" of running over uneven ground should be as quick and light as possible. If your cadence is faster you can more easily shift your weight to the opposite leg if you stumble on one foot instead of fully fall. Scott 2 must embrace a water/flow running mentality. 
. Run on trails slow at first to find your flow and actively think of form. Speed comes with experience. You have to have enough reps to make it more automatic. MTB trails (as long as they are not MTB only or one way only) are good places to learn.
. You are not alone in this friend. Falling is a reality of trail running. It is a reminder to come back to the movement. Similar in yoga... coming back to the breath. Come back to your form. Moving quickly (and safely!) over uneven ground is a skill to be developed just like any other. The 100 up exercise can help with more subtle weight shifts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1EBrxUCiGs . The 100 exercise will also help train you to pick up your feet more readily and more easily clear obstacles. If you get better at it, your balance on one foot will improve. The cadence and "feel" of running over uneven ground should be as quick and light as possible. If your cadence is faster you can more easily shift your weight to the opposite leg if you stumble on one foot instead of fully fall. Scott 2 must embrace a water/flow running mentality. . Run on trails slow at first to find your flow and actively think of form. Speed comes with experience. You have to have enough reps to make it more automatic. MTB trails (as long as they are not MTB only or one way only) are good places to learn.Re: What I Spend
I'll give that drill a try. For about 3 weeks, I've been fighting with a blister on the ball of my big toe. From what I'm reading, my fragile balance and the blister friction could be related. I can now move fast enough, for long enough, that my form is worth consideration. I'm working on improving my blister care as well, but it seems that might be a band aid. Based upon how my calf feels, it's clear I didn't get my foot high enough. I then over-stretched the lower leg when my toe box collided with the root, causing me to fall.mountainFrugal wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:09 pmThe 100 up exercise can help with more subtle weight shifts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1EBrxUCiGs
I'm also reminded getting hurt is expensive. The scraped / banged knee means I have to take it easy lifting. The hole in my foot precludes more running. I was able to visit the pool, but I had to coat everything in nuskin - ouch. I'm hoping to bike tomorrow. This puts a damper on the week leading up to my wisdom teeth removal.
I feel fortunate I did not fall while attempting to mountain bike. I am reconsidering how quickly I take risks on the bike. I wasn't going very fast when I tripped. Lose the bike at 10 or even 20mph, things will be much worse.
Re: What I Spend
5 days since wisdom teeth removal. I'm grateful:
1. For my wife's help and care
2. I have time to recover at my pace
3. I had means to select and afford an experienced oral surgeon
4. I have capacity to proactively address my dental problems
5. I have no complications. Recovery has been best case scenario.
6. The weeks leading up to surgery, I went all in on both activity and eating special food.
7. I had the means and time to afford both
Outside of surgery, spending has fallen way off. A $20 book. A $15 video game. My energy is other places.
The week leading up to surgery was dominated by anticipation. I've never had anything more serious than a cavity. Sitting in the chair, I was so nervous, my feet were shaking. Blood pressure was 140/70. The low diastolic number is something to show for all the v02 max training. I barely slept the night before.
Post surgery, I am developing appreciation for what fixing my bite means. A couple days without chewing left me feeling a little desperate. Now that I can have soft foods, I have to re-learn how to eat. It is discouraging. A bowl of peas took 20 minutes. My wisdom teeth were doing all the work. I'm not sure how much better this gets. I need a new diet, near term.
Braces are a month away, which will restart the process. I am learning to view dried and frozen foods in an entirely new light. Rather than over processed modern garbage, it is something (anything!) I can eat with out discomfort. Pop tarts are great. Instant potatoes is fine dining. That feels humbling.
Knowing we have a plan - there is an end where my bite works, makes this easier. I can only imagine losing teeth at 60, with far less capacity to solve the problem. It's amusing to joke about the time savings of blending every meal. In practice, a few days of that felt bad. Doing it forever... I have a lot more empathy for those with dental issues.
Looking forward to jaw surgery - eating and swallowing during recovery mighty be the worst part. It could be a week of liquid diet. Possibly through a syringe. I am going to practice soft and liquid meals over the next year. Hopefully food can be on auto-pilot by surgery time. I am now much less concerned about the surgery itself, as well as the associated pain. I think the medical system has that part figured out.
I may sign up for a 4 mile race in November. A promise to keep some physical capacity, as I make the transition into braces and relearn how to eat.
1. For my wife's help and care
2. I have time to recover at my pace
3. I had means to select and afford an experienced oral surgeon
4. I have capacity to proactively address my dental problems
5. I have no complications. Recovery has been best case scenario.
6. The weeks leading up to surgery, I went all in on both activity and eating special food.
7. I had the means and time to afford both
Outside of surgery, spending has fallen way off. A $20 book. A $15 video game. My energy is other places.
The week leading up to surgery was dominated by anticipation. I've never had anything more serious than a cavity. Sitting in the chair, I was so nervous, my feet were shaking. Blood pressure was 140/70. The low diastolic number is something to show for all the v02 max training. I barely slept the night before.
Post surgery, I am developing appreciation for what fixing my bite means. A couple days without chewing left me feeling a little desperate. Now that I can have soft foods, I have to re-learn how to eat. It is discouraging. A bowl of peas took 20 minutes. My wisdom teeth were doing all the work. I'm not sure how much better this gets. I need a new diet, near term.
Braces are a month away, which will restart the process. I am learning to view dried and frozen foods in an entirely new light. Rather than over processed modern garbage, it is something (anything!) I can eat with out discomfort. Pop tarts are great. Instant potatoes is fine dining. That feels humbling.
Knowing we have a plan - there is an end where my bite works, makes this easier. I can only imagine losing teeth at 60, with far less capacity to solve the problem. It's amusing to joke about the time savings of blending every meal. In practice, a few days of that felt bad. Doing it forever... I have a lot more empathy for those with dental issues.
Looking forward to jaw surgery - eating and swallowing during recovery mighty be the worst part. It could be a week of liquid diet. Possibly through a syringe. I am going to practice soft and liquid meals over the next year. Hopefully food can be on auto-pilot by surgery time. I am now much less concerned about the surgery itself, as well as the associated pain. I think the medical system has that part figured out.
I may sign up for a 4 mile race in November. A promise to keep some physical capacity, as I make the transition into braces and relearn how to eat.
Re: What I Spend
Congratulations on taking the first step. I hope it all goes well.
Re: What I Spend
Have a good recovery! I find sick time away from the routine leads to major lifestyle breakthroughs. You realize a lot when you're knocked out of normality.
Re: What I Spend
Thanks for the well wishes all. I am recovering, but I do miss my teeth!
September 2022 Total (Couple) - $4638
Healthcare/Medical - $1728
Groceries - $901
Home Maintenance - $556
Clothing/Shoes - $439
Pets/Pet Care - $332
Exercise - $237
Utilities - $212
Entertainment - $123
Video Games - $45
Automotive - $43
Streaming - $22
Spent $4638 against the budget of $5910. Dealing with surgery, I gave up on discretionary spending. We hit about $800 of the allocated $1800.
Unusual expenses - river float, 20lbs of protein, wisdom teeth surgery, vet, 4 pairs of shoes, swimsuits, video games, my wife painted a room.
The vet has become shockingly expensive - $332 for our cat's annual physical. We are staying with the practice but recognize it as a luxury.
Unusual inflows - I sold $200 of lifting gear on OfferUp. The expensive gym didn't charge us for August.
Spurred by the recent markets, I started switch of my cell from mint mobile to tello (~$130/yr savings). Comcast raised our internet bill (from 20 to 30 per month), so I also applied for the ACP internet subsidy. If we qualify, that is worth $360 / year.
October 2022 Estimate - $3991(Couple)
Lower than recent months. The cat needs a dental in November, so we opted to save the unplanned budget, rather than allocate more to discretionary. We're still carrying plenty from last month.
The top goal for October is to start braces. My orthodontist sent notice she's beginning a "slow transition" into retirement, so we're on the clock.
I got my bivalent covid booster this weekend, so my second priority is rejoining society. Social distancing works for me, but it's probably not a good long term life plan. I might turn on the Gym Pass benefit via my insurance. Maybe I'll look for a play job or some light volunteer work.
Overall
It's been a tough month. The down markets have my attention. Combined with pain from surgery, I had several sleepless nights.
Normally I'd cope with exercise. but that was unavailable. When I fell running, I hurt my foot and knee. Then I had recovery from surgery. Then the covid booster. October looks better, but I needed some other tools.
So what I've done (beyond video games):
0. I declined to change our investment strategy. While returns have been miserable, I am not confident active investing ends better, for me. Maybe next time CAPE brakes 35, or the fed rate hits 0, I'll allocate more to cash. It would have felt reasonable to take 3 years living expenses, instead of 1. I never would have guessed with 9% inflation, cash was a great asset to hold.
1. Whenever possible, we are delaying expenses to the last moment. Braces can be paid monthly. Property taxes spread out. Discretionary spending delayed. Appliances nursed along. Etc. We'll sell investments only as cash is needed.
2. I redesigned our budgeting strategy, making 2023 and 2024 projections. My wife and I have discussed those. We have a plan, enough to stay the course, and contingencies for further market drops.
3. An important step was planning 2024, since we have big one time expenses in 2023. On top of fixing my teeth (~$10k), we are also looking at my wife's teeth (~$7k). Spending $62k in 2023 is not a big deal, if subsequent years run ~$45k.
4. From an ERE perspective, even $45k is a big annual spend. One contingency is cutting expenses. The free changes (cell phone, subsidized internet), we are making. We dropped the expensive gym ($1700/year). My wife ended her concierge doctor ($2000/yr). We've ear marked others, but find those cuts much less appealing. Spend less eventually ceases to be the path of least resistance.
5. The final contingency is work. I assumed my subsidized insurance precludes this option. But looking more carefully, that's not true. I can divert the first $12k of earned income into IRAs. If I contract via an LLC and setup a solo 401k, that number jumps higher. I think it's closer to $30k.
The new understanding gives new considerations:
5.1 We decided against full time work. Braces and surgery are already going to be miserable. No need to pile on, especially given my wife's healthspan considerations. This option would also disrupt insurance, though the money makes that a minor annoyance.
5.2 What about online freelancing? I spent a week diving into UpWork, earning an impressive $5 after fees. My skills in enterprise software development are not immediately suited. I would need to retool, create a portfolio, build a brand, learn to sell, etc. Frankly, I don't want to. Ramp up is more effort than a full time position. Pinning myself behind a computer, even on my terms, remains unappealing. Maybe I could hit up old employers to short circuit the curve, but I left those places for reasons.
5.3 What about a hobby job? Something that gives access to tools or entertainment, taking maybe 15-20 hours a week. Given my need to rejoin society, this could be an overall win. I've had ideas like thrift store staff, personal trainer, bike mechanic, autism support staff, physical therapy aid, dog walker, etc. It's possible food bank volunteering could be a middle ground, given the surplus others here described. This option does hinge on conclusion of my social distancing.
5.4 Obviously lacking in this list, is a scalable business. So far, I'm not that guy. Maybe I could learn. But, if I'm going to do human tricks solely for money, full time tech remains far more reliable. I could crush the leetcode / systems design / behavioral interview grind. I can be that guy. The thing that bugs me about most scalable business - they are selling things people don't really need. If my primary goal is to extract wealth, it's again easier to be the big tech guy.
So, should we take further action, it'll probably be the hobby job or volunteering. While doing nothing could be fine, the added socialization might be good for me. If I liked it, an extra $12k in annual earnings would largely decouple our lifestyle from investment returns.
With a plan in place, I'm back to sleeping well.
September 2022 Total (Couple) - $4638
Healthcare/Medical - $1728
Groceries - $901
Home Maintenance - $556
Clothing/Shoes - $439
Pets/Pet Care - $332
Exercise - $237
Utilities - $212
Entertainment - $123
Video Games - $45
Automotive - $43
Streaming - $22
Spent $4638 against the budget of $5910. Dealing with surgery, I gave up on discretionary spending. We hit about $800 of the allocated $1800.
Unusual expenses - river float, 20lbs of protein, wisdom teeth surgery, vet, 4 pairs of shoes, swimsuits, video games, my wife painted a room.
The vet has become shockingly expensive - $332 for our cat's annual physical. We are staying with the practice but recognize it as a luxury.
Unusual inflows - I sold $200 of lifting gear on OfferUp. The expensive gym didn't charge us for August.
Spurred by the recent markets, I started switch of my cell from mint mobile to tello (~$130/yr savings). Comcast raised our internet bill (from 20 to 30 per month), so I also applied for the ACP internet subsidy. If we qualify, that is worth $360 / year.
October 2022 Estimate - $3991(Couple)
Lower than recent months. The cat needs a dental in November, so we opted to save the unplanned budget, rather than allocate more to discretionary. We're still carrying plenty from last month.
The top goal for October is to start braces. My orthodontist sent notice she's beginning a "slow transition" into retirement, so we're on the clock.
I got my bivalent covid booster this weekend, so my second priority is rejoining society. Social distancing works for me, but it's probably not a good long term life plan. I might turn on the Gym Pass benefit via my insurance. Maybe I'll look for a play job or some light volunteer work.
Overall
It's been a tough month. The down markets have my attention. Combined with pain from surgery, I had several sleepless nights.
Normally I'd cope with exercise. but that was unavailable. When I fell running, I hurt my foot and knee. Then I had recovery from surgery. Then the covid booster. October looks better, but I needed some other tools.
So what I've done (beyond video games):
0. I declined to change our investment strategy. While returns have been miserable, I am not confident active investing ends better, for me. Maybe next time CAPE brakes 35, or the fed rate hits 0, I'll allocate more to cash. It would have felt reasonable to take 3 years living expenses, instead of 1. I never would have guessed with 9% inflation, cash was a great asset to hold.
1. Whenever possible, we are delaying expenses to the last moment. Braces can be paid monthly. Property taxes spread out. Discretionary spending delayed. Appliances nursed along. Etc. We'll sell investments only as cash is needed.
2. I redesigned our budgeting strategy, making 2023 and 2024 projections. My wife and I have discussed those. We have a plan, enough to stay the course, and contingencies for further market drops.
3. An important step was planning 2024, since we have big one time expenses in 2023. On top of fixing my teeth (~$10k), we are also looking at my wife's teeth (~$7k). Spending $62k in 2023 is not a big deal, if subsequent years run ~$45k.
4. From an ERE perspective, even $45k is a big annual spend. One contingency is cutting expenses. The free changes (cell phone, subsidized internet), we are making. We dropped the expensive gym ($1700/year). My wife ended her concierge doctor ($2000/yr). We've ear marked others, but find those cuts much less appealing. Spend less eventually ceases to be the path of least resistance.
5. The final contingency is work. I assumed my subsidized insurance precludes this option. But looking more carefully, that's not true. I can divert the first $12k of earned income into IRAs. If I contract via an LLC and setup a solo 401k, that number jumps higher. I think it's closer to $30k.
The new understanding gives new considerations:
5.1 We decided against full time work. Braces and surgery are already going to be miserable. No need to pile on, especially given my wife's healthspan considerations. This option would also disrupt insurance, though the money makes that a minor annoyance.
5.2 What about online freelancing? I spent a week diving into UpWork, earning an impressive $5 after fees. My skills in enterprise software development are not immediately suited. I would need to retool, create a portfolio, build a brand, learn to sell, etc. Frankly, I don't want to. Ramp up is more effort than a full time position. Pinning myself behind a computer, even on my terms, remains unappealing. Maybe I could hit up old employers to short circuit the curve, but I left those places for reasons.
5.3 What about a hobby job? Something that gives access to tools or entertainment, taking maybe 15-20 hours a week. Given my need to rejoin society, this could be an overall win. I've had ideas like thrift store staff, personal trainer, bike mechanic, autism support staff, physical therapy aid, dog walker, etc. It's possible food bank volunteering could be a middle ground, given the surplus others here described. This option does hinge on conclusion of my social distancing.
5.4 Obviously lacking in this list, is a scalable business. So far, I'm not that guy. Maybe I could learn. But, if I'm going to do human tricks solely for money, full time tech remains far more reliable. I could crush the leetcode / systems design / behavioral interview grind. I can be that guy. The thing that bugs me about most scalable business - they are selling things people don't really need. If my primary goal is to extract wealth, it's again easier to be the big tech guy.
So, should we take further action, it'll probably be the hobby job or volunteering. While doing nothing could be fine, the added socialization might be good for me. If I liked it, an extra $12k in annual earnings would largely decouple our lifestyle from investment returns.
With a plan in place, I'm back to sleeping well.
Re: What I Spend
The hobby job is part of our plan for a multitude of reasons. With spending levels slightly below yours, a 15-20 hour a week job, even at minimum wage in most MCOL+ states, just 6-9 months out of each year creates an insane buffer that's inflation adjusted and optimized from a tax standpoint. The social benefits can be great, as can having a bit of structure to your week. Some jobs, like UPS even offer part time staff generous health insurance benefits.
Re: What I Spend
If you are concerned about finances, the place to start would seem like decreasing that dependency, building up skills and reducing expenses rather than doubling down and accumulating more. It seems like there is a lot of low hanging fruit in your Groceries and Clothes sections. Based off your past few months, it seems like you have 6 figures worth of lifetime savings to be had between the two, even at a much higher multiple than 1 JAFI level. That is worth many years of part time work!
I understand that a job could offer other aspects like social interaction and mental stimulation, but that does not appear to be the driving motivation that I am getting from your writing.
I understand that a job could offer other aspects like social interaction and mental stimulation, but that does not appear to be the driving motivation that I am getting from your writing.
Re: What I Spend
I struggle with balancing optimal use of financial capital, human capital and time. Taking the gym as an example, which tier to pick:
Monthly Cost - Tier - Round trip commute
$250 - Upper - 20 mile drive
$120 - Middle - 10 mile drive
$40 - Middle - 12 mile bike
$25 - Lower - 11 mile bike
$0 - Lift at home - NA
($50) - Add physical tasks to lifestyle, exercise less - NA
($1000) - Work at the gym - NA
When I envisioned retirement, it included the Upper tier. That was my escape. Absent work, is it worth $3k per year?
Is it fair to price the drive? Should I assume "sit at home forever" as my baseline? 4000 miles per year isn't a crazy amount.
Is driving to the middle tier a reasonable compromise? All these options carry time costs as well.
We have great memories from the Upper tier gyms. No regrets. But in aggregate, such choices yield a baseline annual budget of $45k.
It's worth noting - some reductions were already made. Purchasing power in the 2023 plan is down ~20% from 2022. We accounted for new market valuations and rebuilt the safety margin. Recency bias makes further reductions look especially painful.
Fortunately, much of the 2022 discretionary spending went into durable goods. We'll have those items next year too.
Re: What I Spend
Another option is to partially offset gym costs, e.g. pay for transportation but get a personal training client that pays you 250/120/40 per month. That said, if all options have pros and cons, it might be impossible to arrive at the One Correct All-time Optimal Choice.
Why not make the decision conditional? Decide on some values for asset valuations / withdrawal rate and make some sort of rule e.g. lift at home while withdrawal rate is between bla and bla, work at gym if assets/withdrawal rate fall below blah value, etc? The boundaries will be arbitrary - you could justify them in terms of maintaining some withdrawal rate e.g. we will not withdraw upwards of 2% of current assets no matter what those are or some such, or you could justify them in terms of another quantitative system, but ultimately there is no objectively optimal solution here because you don't know the future. There's only optimizing according to subjective criteria - making these criteria quantifiable is one way to appease the subjective self that needs quantifiable things to feel that its decisions are Correct.
Tl;dr imo the solution to this conundrum is to accept that an objectively correct solution is impossible.
Why not make the decision conditional? Decide on some values for asset valuations / withdrawal rate and make some sort of rule e.g. lift at home while withdrawal rate is between bla and bla, work at gym if assets/withdrawal rate fall below blah value, etc? The boundaries will be arbitrary - you could justify them in terms of maintaining some withdrawal rate e.g. we will not withdraw upwards of 2% of current assets no matter what those are or some such, or you could justify them in terms of another quantitative system, but ultimately there is no objectively optimal solution here because you don't know the future. There's only optimizing according to subjective criteria - making these criteria quantifiable is one way to appease the subjective self that needs quantifiable things to feel that its decisions are Correct.
Tl;dr imo the solution to this conundrum is to accept that an objectively correct solution is impossible.
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OutOfTheBlue
- Posts: 297
- Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:59 am
Re: What I Spend
I'd suggest making insourcing the default, then measuring other solutions against that.Scott 2 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:58 pmI struggle with balancing optimal use of financial capital, human capital and time. Taking the gym as an example, which tier to pick:
Monthly Cost - Tier - Round trip commute
$250 - Upper - 20 mile drive
$120 - Middle - 10 mile drive
$40 - Middle - 12 mile bike
$25 - Lower - 11 mile bike
$0 - Lift at home - NA
($50) - Add physical tasks to lifestyle, exercise less - NA
($1000) - Work at the gym - NA
When I envisioned retirement, it included the Upper tier. That was my escape. Absent work, is it worth $3k per year?
Is it fair to price the drive? Should I assume "sit at home forever" as my baseline? 4000 miles per year isn't a crazy amount.
Is driving to the middle tier a reasonable compromise? All these options carry time costs as well.
We have great memories from the Upper tier gyms. No regrets. But in aggregate, such choices yield a baseline annual budget of $45k.
It's worth noting - some reductions were already made. Purchasing power in the 2023 plan is down ~20% from 2022. We accounted for new market valuations and rebuilt the safety margin. Recency bias makes further reductions look especially painful.
Fortunately, much of the 2022 discretionary spending went into durable goods. We'll have those items next year too.
There is a sense of empowerment from decoupling specific needs from money-costing solutions.
Why would you need to go to the gym in the first place? Is it the only way to achieve your goal? What can you do or how far can you go with what you already have? Can you find examples of other people who do this? Remember you are also more time-rich than most, so that you can train longer/more often.
Also, I think it could be a great time to go on a no buy year challenge that you define in your own terms. You may take away insights that are more valuable than the money saved.
Re: What I Spend
@OutOfTheBlue - It's fun and motivating to visit the gym! Play with their toys. See what people are doing. Get heat shock proteins in the sauna. Cool off in the lap pool. An Upper tier gym is a resort style experience. My physical goals can be achieved at home. But I enjoy some gym time.
I do need to eventually post the 2023 strategy for feedback. Buy nothing feels daunting, in light of other life considerations.
@ertyu - No right answer. It's an example of choices leading to my luxurious budget. We're making similar decisions for housing, cars, pets, food, insurance, etc.
In practice, I plan to vary the gym based upon my training cycle and weather. It could be something like - Upper drive for winter, lower bike for Spring and Fall, middle drive for Summer, nothing the months of my surgery. If I work at a gym, that could change. Gym Pass is great, in that there's no contract. You can change tier monthly.
For 2023, we plan to allocate the discretionary budget at year start. $3600 per person. My gym membership comes out of that. So I'll also vary based upon other consumption. The mileage estimates above won't come out of my $3600. We have separate buckets for gas ($1100) and car repairs ($1000). In practice, I don't think we'll constrain life to save on gas. Hence the non-ERE budget.
I do need to eventually post the 2023 strategy for feedback. Buy nothing feels daunting, in light of other life considerations.
@ertyu - No right answer
. It's an example of choices leading to my luxurious budget. We're making similar decisions for housing, cars, pets, food, insurance, etc.In practice, I plan to vary the gym based upon my training cycle and weather. It could be something like - Upper drive for winter, lower bike for Spring and Fall, middle drive for Summer, nothing the months of my surgery. If I work at a gym, that could change. Gym Pass is great, in that there's no contract. You can change tier monthly.
For 2023, we plan to allocate the discretionary budget at year start. $3600 per person. My gym membership comes out of that. So I'll also vary based upon other consumption. The mileage estimates above won't come out of my $3600. We have separate buckets for gas ($1100) and car repairs ($1000). In practice, I don't think we'll constrain life to save on gas. Hence the non-ERE budget.
Re: What I Spend
Or thatScott 2 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:05 amIt's fun and motivating to visit the gym! Play with their toys. See what people are doing. Get heat shock proteins in the sauna. Cool off in the lap pool. An Upper tier gym is a resort style experience.
..
In practice, I plan to vary the gym based upon my training cycle and weather. It could be something like - Upper drive for winter, lower bike for Spring and Fall, middle drive for Summer, nothing the months of my surgery.
. So here's the question: would working at a gym interfere with the kind of enjoyment you describe obtaining from your experience as a client?
Re: What I Spend
It might. The resort style gym is also unlikely to hire me. I have neither the charisma or the look.
My sweet spot would be training at a ymca, park district or hospital attached facility. I could offer "move better" and "age slower" to the 40+ crowd. Training someplace worthwhile also requires $500 for a cert and insurance. Twenty years ago, I held a couple certs from ACE and the ACSM, so that'd be the easy part.
The public might be too germy for me though. I dunno if I'm ready for that. Volunteering could be an interesting bridge, to test those waters.
For now - my big unknowns are returning to the world and how my face feels with braces. I need to check those off before anything else. The braces could be a huge problem. As it stands, I can no longer eat foods like nuts or peas. Raw vegetables are completely off the table. Trouble eating has me cranky and slow.
I am still mulling over the expense reduction contingency. While our overall strategy is unlikely to change, small choices could add up.
My sweet spot would be training at a ymca, park district or hospital attached facility. I could offer "move better" and "age slower" to the 40+ crowd. Training someplace worthwhile also requires $500 for a cert and insurance. Twenty years ago, I held a couple certs from ACE and the ACSM, so that'd be the easy part.
The public might be too germy for me though. I dunno if I'm ready for that. Volunteering could be an interesting bridge, to test those waters.
For now - my big unknowns are returning to the world and how my face feels with braces. I need to check those off before anything else. The braces could be a huge problem. As it stands, I can no longer eat foods like nuts or peas. Raw vegetables are completely off the table. Trouble eating has me cranky and slow.
I am still mulling over the expense reduction contingency. While our overall strategy is unlikely to change, small choices could add up.