Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Wow, congrats to the progress. You are so close now to cover full 4% spending. Well done. Have fun with your hobbies. What are these?

Thanks @wolf! At the moment, hobbies/interest are spending time with wife+child, walking a lot, golf, some coding, and trying to do not much if possible!

Update for Apr:

Current net worth (not including home): £480,272

To cover 'fixed expenses' (lean FIRE):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 3.7%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £-31,767
Years of savings to 4% SWR: -0.7yr/Aug 2020

To cover 'fixed expenses + optional expenses' (live as today):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 4.1%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £9,373
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 0.2yr/Jun 2021

---

Decided to add 5% of home equity into Net Worth (previously excluded all), on the basis that at some point we'll downsize and we will realise that 5% available for investing. Seem to be coming up to the second metric milestone sooner than I expected, so once that's done I'll be looking at reconciling with the 12-24mnth rolling average, and probably re-assessing the WR goals - 3.5%, 3%, moving the goalposts, One More Year etc.

Update for May:

Current net worth (not including home): £480,512

To cover 'fixed expenses' (lean FIRE):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 3.7%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £-31,180
Years of savings to 4% SWR: -0.7yr/Oct 2020

To cover 'fixed expenses + optional expenses' (live as today):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 4.1%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £9,720
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 0.2yr/Aug 2021

Update for Jun:

Current net worth (not including home): £488,129

To cover 'fixed expenses' (lean FIRE):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 3.7%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £-37,379
Years of savings to 4% SWR: -0.8yr/Aug 2020

To cover 'fixed expenses + optional expenses' (live as today):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 4.0%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £3,517
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 0.1yr/Jun 2021

Update for Jul:

Current net worth (not including home): £495,927

To cover 'fixed expenses' (lean FIRE):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 3.7%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £-43,378
Years of savings to 4% SWR: -1.0yr/Aug 2020

To cover 'fixed expenses + optional expenses' (live as today):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 4.0%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £-241
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 0.0yr/Jul 2021

---

Looks like I've hit 4% on the second metric, yay. Next is to add the margins of safety I feel like I need - Aiming for 3.5% or 3% WR, and reconcile against the 12-24mnth rolling average of ~actual spending.

More and more I'm finding I'm focusing on life stuff, and less on the financial stuff which is positive I think. Still exploring new hobbies, and slowly building that post-work life ready for when I opt to quit/downshift/adjust.

Update for Aug:

Current net worth (not including home): £508,018

To cover 'fixed expenses' (lean FIRE):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 3.6%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £-54,228
Years of savings to 4% SWR: -1.2yr/Jun 2020

To cover 'fixed expenses + optional expenses' (live as today):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 4.0%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £1,065
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 0.0yr/Aug 2021

---

Over £500k NW it seems, another yay. Still just focusing on day-to-day and I guess I'm settling into OneMoreYear syndrome until I 1/ get comfortable that the margin of safety sufficiently gives me that warm fuzzy safe feeling in the belly - Again, probably 3.5%-3% region I would think, as well as reconciling against the 12-24mnth rolling average of ~actual spending.

Update for Sept:

Current net worth (not including home): £507,243

To cover 'fixed expenses' (lean FIRE):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 3.6%
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £14,004
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 0.3yr/Dec 2021

To cover 'fixed expenses + optional expenses' (live as today):
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 4.1%
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £82,100
Years of savings to 3.5% SWR: 1.8yr/Jun 2023

---

Slight downtick since last month, just the markets doing their thing. No real musings this month, still just focusing on the moment, and trying to develop some hobbies - Develop too, in a way that doesn't suck the whole life out of it due to over-optimisation, systemisation and rigidity (the things us INTJ's are good at and naturally drawn to).

Have started to record against real 12 month expenses rolling averages which I'm happy about, as that's the next thing to solve for really.
Have also shifted the tracking goalposts to 3.5% SWR now, we will see how this goes.

Update for Oct:

Current net worth (not including home): £518,546

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.5% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-175. Years of savings needed: 0.0yr/Oct 2021

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 4.0% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £68,507. Years of savings needed: 1.5yr/Apr 2023

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 5.1% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £142,054. Years of savings needed: 3.2yr/Dec 2024

---

Interesting to watch the portfolio ups-and-downs each month, and get used to the fluctuation - Good practice for the eventual retirement, to desensitise and get used to the normal fluctuation. Added YMOYL figure tracking, which includes all the random bits of crap purchases and one-off bits that are left out of the budget - We could do without them easily, but we choose not to right now, so it'll be good to keep track of YMOYL WR cover over the coming months. Continued to develop hobbies, and enjoying them.

Update for Nov:

Current net worth (not including home): £558,432

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.2% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-40,407. Years of savings needed: -0.9yr/Jan 2021

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 3.7% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £29,109. Years of savings needed: 0.6yr/Jun 2022

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 4.9% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £119,868. Years of savings needed: 2.7yr/Jul 2024

---

A bump in NW this month due to a jump in some cryptocoins which is nice. Settling into a bit of a groove again with a few regular side hobbies and home life.

Update for Dec:

Current net worth: £563,850

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.2% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-42,127. Years of savings needed: -0.9yr/Jan 2021

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 3.7% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £30,301. Years of savings needed: 0.7yr/Aug 2022

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 5.0% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £61,217. Years of savings needed: 1.4yr/Apr 2023

2021 review

Back in 2020 review I said "I need challenge, structure, and something meaningful to focus on". This remains true, and I think it always will. I managed to expand some areas of learning/mastery and some of those areas were even meaningful. So I'll keep following this path and see where it leads me. I still daily journal, and I find this monthly and yearly FI/RE journalling and review cathartic so I will continue these.

Date: Dec19 -> Dec20 -> Dec21
NW: £344,667 -> £377,752 -> £563,850

Lean FIRE:
WR: 7.0% -> 4.3% -> 3.2%
Deficit to 4%: £254k -> £27k -> N/A
Years to: 4.9/Nov24 -> 0.6/Jul21 -> N/A

Live as ~today/real-world 12mnth average:
WR: 7.6% -> 4.7% -> 3.7%/5.0%
Deficit to 4%: £308k -> £66k -> £30k/£61k
Years to: 5.9/Dec25 -> 1.4/May22 -> 0.7yr/Aug 2022 / 1.4yr/Apr 2023

A pretty big leap in NW this year, and makes me more confident by the end of 2022 I'll be in a position where I'm more-or-less FI again. Added a YMOYL-esque tracking to start to get more square on things as I approach this point.

Update for Jan:

Current net worth: £529,062

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.5% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-3,540. Years of savings needed: -0.1yr/Jan 2022

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 4.0% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £69,850. Years of savings needed: 1.6yr/Jul 2023

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 5.4% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £107,738. Years of savings needed: 2.4yr/May 2024

--

Quite the drop in NW this month - 6%/£34k. First real time there's been a significant drop (paying off the mortgage aside). As it stands, corresponds to ~1yr extra at work. I'm feeling comfortable though (of course with a job it's easy to tolerate these drops), and things will rectify themselves in the end. A chunk of this drop is due to crypto holdings, and the other chunk is due to index investments. Will be interesting to see what other folks updates are this month with some of the investment pullbacks

Update for Feb:

Current net worth: £527,010

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.5% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £6,106. Years of savings needed: 0.1yr/Apr 2022

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 4.0% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £82,510. Years of savings needed: 1.8yr/Jan 2024

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 5.4% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £109,790. Years of savings needed: 2.4yr/Aug 2024

--

Another slight drop of NW this month, due in part to the crypto, and a couple of bigger one-off payments coming out.

Read a good article by Dan Pink on "If Only" and "At Least" thinking at
https://behavioralscientist.org/regret- ... ing-of-if/ - this is certainly a good time to practice "At Least" thinking.

Update for Mar:

Current net worth: £544,008

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.5% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £6,648. Years of savings needed: 0.1yr/May 2022

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 4.1% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £87,397. Years of savings needed: 1.9yr/Mar 2024

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 5.3% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £92,792. Years of savings needed: 2.1yr/Apr 2024

--

A bump back up, due to stocks and crypto recovering. Am enjoying the continued learning about crypto and finance, and generally leaning away from goals and toward systems/routines instead (HT:JCD)

Update for Apr:

Current net worth: £527,506

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.4% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-13,448. Years of savings needed: -0.3yr/Feb 2022

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 3.9% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £67,575. Years of savings needed: 1.4yr/Sep 2023

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 5.7% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £139,161. Years of savings needed: 2.9yr/Mar 2025

--

https://metarationality.com/stem-fluidity-bridge is an interesting read on Kegan level 4->5 transition, and notes the stage 4.5 of nihilistic depression - which definitely rings true, and is somewhat comforting too.

Stocks and crypto back down again, so another drop - This at least is a good test at helping me step back and get used to these swings, and keep focused on the long-term.

Update for May:

Current net worth: £517,765

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.5% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-4,536. Years of savings needed: -0.1yr/May 2022

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 4.1% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £82,470. Years of savings needed: 1.7yr/Feb 2024

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 6.1% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £181,968. Years of savings needed: 3.8yr/Mar 2026

--

Another downtick in NW again this month - Given that this is due to crypto and stocks, it's in general a positive as I'm still in accumulation mode it means I'll be able to accumulate more in this period (recession/slowdown).

Update for June:

Current net worth: £513,845

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.5% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £2,422. Years of savings needed: 0.0yr/Jul 2022

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 4.1% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £92,562. Years of savings needed: 1.8yr/May 2024

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 6.3% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £201,889. Years of savings needed: 4.0yr/Jul 2026
--

The ennui continues, although is fading as I'm trying to keep focused on the now and have a break from the meaning-seeking mode.

Another little NW drop this month with the continued market drops. It's a good test of mindset on strategy - I'm not bothered one bit, and I'm actually happy to the drop continue as I'm still in accumulation mode for now.

Something to ponder on:

"Let's suppose that you were able every night to dream any dream that you wanted to dream. And that you could, for example, have the power within one night to dream 75 years of time. Or any length of time you wanted to have. And you would, naturally as you began on this adventure of dreams, you would fulfill all your wishes. You would have every kind of pleasure you could conceive. And after several nights of 75 years of total pleasure each, you would say "Well, that was pretty great. But now let's have a surprise. Let's have a dream which isn't under control. Where something is gonna happen to me that I don't know what it's going to be". And you would dig that and come out of that and say "Wow, that was a close shave, wasn't it?" And then you would get more and more adventurous, and you would make further and further out gambles as to what you would dream. And finally, you would dream ... where you are now. You would dream the dream of living the life that you are actually living today"
-Alan Watts

Update for Jul:

Current net worth: £527,879

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.2% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-40,052. Years of savings needed: -0.8yr/Nov 2021

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 3.9% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £53,079. Years of savings needed: 1.1yr/Aug 2023

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 6.0% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £180,921. Years of savings needed: 3.6yr/Mar 2026
--

Slight uptick in net worth, just the usual +/-5%. Continuing to focus on the now and just let the automated portfolio system continue to accumulate as per plan.

Update for Aug:

Current net worth: £537,916

To cover fixed expenses (lean FIRE): 3.3% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £-36,669. Years of savings needed: -0.7yr/Dec 2021

To cover fixed + optional expenses (live as today): 3.9% WR required
NW deficit to 3.5% SWR: £60,522. Years of savings needed: 1.2yr/Oct 2023

To cover YMOYL (real-world 12mnth average): 6.0% WR required
NW deficit to 4.0% SWR: £180,484. Years of savings needed: 3.6yr/Feb 2026