the dollar journal

Where are you and where are you going?
thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

Thanks for looking out for me guys :)

Since the cost basis is so low compared to where it is now it wouldn't really impact me that much if it dropped back to more sane levels.

+++

With inspiration from another thread on this forum I have begun doing a "stress test" where I take my current net worth and substract the proportional difference from Shiller PE historic median and to the current level.

Historic median: 15.79
Current ratio: 31.26

If I had a net worth of 1 million USD and was 100% invested in stocks, I would thus have a net worth of (1,000,000 * (15.79 / 31.26)) = USD 505,118 if stocks were to drop to the historic median.

The interesting thing is that my net worth might have gained USD 296.202 since January, however, the gains are 'only' USD 43,483 when adjusting for the change in the median valuation scenario.

wolf
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm
Location: Germany

Re: the dollar journal

Post by wolf »

When reading about the Margin of Safety you accumulated, I could easily fall in the Margin of Safety Trap. It wouldn't be the one more year syndrome, but the 10 more year syndrome at least. Honestly, I don't know what to make of it. I am a risk averse type and do risk mitigation a lot of the time. It is already difficult for me to know when enough is enough (regarding years of expenses accumulated), but your numbers are way above everything I could think of. What would you recommend people, if they would like to see you as a role model?

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

@Wolf

I don't have an answer. I don't have the answers. I was unemployed for a while but I basically didn't do anything. That didn't work out because I was unsure of what to do with my time and my life. Who was I? What was I achieving? Where was I going?

I guess you need to figure out what's meaningful before pursuing it. For me it wasn't sitting around and doing nothing (might be for some) although it is sort of my default behavoiur. Life felt empty in some ways. I still had friends, girlfriends, family etc. but something was missing. Others may have something in mind they want to pursue; travel? sports? etc.

Having a job is the lesser of two evils for me - there are certainly some aspects I don't like but come to think about I basically do the same thing that I did before. The difference is that I now go somewhere else to sit around and read all day + co-workers are nice and the food is great as well. Yes, I also solve a few tasks every now and then.

Looking back the best time I had was during school. You didn't really have to prepare or deliver anything and you still went to a social place to hang out and do activities all day. If universal income kicks in for the majority I guess we'll have to create some kind of social clubs for adults where you can go and hang out and do activities with others.

Maybe at some point - if everything works out - I can create my own 'family office' for investments and employ myself and people I like. I guess that's what Warren Buffett ended up doing.

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

August update

Cashflow
Expenses: $N/A
Dividends: $2,015 (-25.3% YoY)
Dividends TTM: $2,016 (-$186 MoM)
Projected annual dividend: N/A

Total networth gain (loss): +$259,357

Investment allocation
Equities: 56.7%
Real estate: 23.1%
Cash: 20.0%

+++

Time for the big one. Largest monthly gain so far mainly due to TSLA and tech. Let's see where we go from here. :?

I'm fighting my urge to buy a variety of stocks where I feel FOMO. Funny how easy it is to get an urge to buy when the market is so euphoric and at ATM. In March when everything was crashing it felt very counter intuitive to buy anything.

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by ertyu »

i'm starting to think i should observe my psychological urges when it comes to this and do exactly the opposite :lol:

tl;dr: buy more tesla, given how much it freaks me out it's bound to go up :lol: :lol:

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

@ertyu Every time you have the urge not to buy, it's bound to go up. Please continue where you left off :lol: clearly you have been buying the last few days :?

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

I have been investing for a few years now I suppose. Maybe 5-6 years?

Anyway, I've grown tired of the market. It doesn't feel like there's a lot of oppurtunity left right now. I've built a decent portfolio of which 50% of my NW is invested in. I think I'll stop buying stocks now and stop following the market so closely.

I feel like focusing on building my real estate income and fixing up a property. My real estate income is gradually building up as my commitment to the real estate fund is called - but it's a slow process. So far it's taking a year and I'm only half way there in terms of being fully invested. Dividends won't be paid out until the money's been fully invested for a full year.

Right now I'll try to focus on doing three tings and forget about the stock market:
1) Push the real estate fund to invest/call the money
2) Do a smaller investment in real estate directly/on my own
3) Buy an apartment or house I can fix up
4) I'm doing a small start-up project with a friend that I find amusing

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

According to statistics people at my age live an average additional 51.62 years (with current technologies).

There was a 99% chance of reaching my age. There's a 0.05% risk of dying at this exact age.

There's a 92.4% chance that I'll live to at least 60 years of age and a 57.3% chance that I'll live to 80.

Eureka
Posts: 340
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:03 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by Eureka »

It seems odd that there is less than 60% chance that you will reach 80. Average life expectation is above that ...

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

@Eureka

It should be right. Have a look at this calculator: https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

The risk of dying at a given age increases massively once you are reach 70

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

September update

Cashflow
Expenses: $N/A
Dividends: $1,550 (-5% YoY)
Dividends TTM: $2,173 (+$157 MoM)
Projected annual dividend: N/A

Total networth gain (loss): -$78,492

Investment allocation
Equities: 53.8%
Real estate: 23.5%
Cash: 22.4%

+++

First month with a net worth decrease since March (-$78,492). I have sold some stocks (stock allocation went from 56.7% -> 53.8%), something I rarely do, to increase my cash position. I am still targeting a 60% stock allocation long-term, but things are getting out of hand right now in terms of P/E, uncertainty and real estate. I feel like it's time to prepare for whatever is coming. It's not a time to get carried along with the insane euphoria.

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

October update

Cashflow
Expenses: $N/A
Dividends: $1,019 (+11.5% YoY)
Dividends TTM: $2,183 (+$10 MoM)
Projected annual dividend: N/A

Total networth gain (loss): -$72,208

Investment allocation
Equities: 52.7% (53.8%)
Real estate: 24.0% (23.5%)
Cash: 22.8% (22.4%)

+++

Another month of progress except for returns which I have absolutely no way of offsetting with income or expense level. I'm in the hands of the market now. I sold more equities to increase my cash reserves in these uncertain times. Health and fitness wise things are slowly improving. I've been doing weight lifting and I'm considering to run a lot more. Maybe my goal would be being able to run 10k.

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by ertyu »

Rooting for you on fitness front and keeping fingers crossed on financial. It's scary not to have that regular paycheck coming in...

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

Thanks ertyu!

November update

Cashflow
Expenses: $N/A
Dividends: $1,713 (+27.5% YoY)
Dividends TTM: $2,214 (+$31 MoM)
Projected annual dividend: N/A

Total networth gain (loss): +$322,562

Investment allocation
Equities: 57.3% (52.7%)
Real estate: 11.2% (24.0%)
Cash: 31.1% (22.8%)

+++
  • 15,83x yearly target expenses in TSLA. If it hits 1,000 I'll be FI just in TSLA stocks. :lol: On the other hand I might loose a _lot_ of money.
  • The market is getting greedy. I feel the same way, but at the same time I know that I shouldn't get carried away. I've done some small investments in Palantir and bitcoin so I guess greed got to me as well.
  • My job situation is worse than ever. Not the job itself but the way I feel about it. Before the job provided me with structure and colleagues (and of course food every day). Now adays I sit at home and do nothing but stress about all the stuff I'm not doing.
  • I'm not even going out as I did a few months ago - partly due to covid and partly due to being stressed about not doing anything.
  • Insane monthly gains for November.. I don't think I'd be able to use that amount in a decade.

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

2020 general/goals review:
  • Achieve $18,200 spending goal Not achieved. Looks like it's gonna be closer to $32,000 - wow.
  • Achieve $30,000 dividend goal Not achieved. Right now dividends are at $27,218.
  • Invest additional $270,000 in stocks Achieved
  • Invest additional $300,000 in real estate Achieved
  • Achieve 50%+ stock allocation Achieved
  • Slowly move allocation towards index funds to reach 80% of all stock investments Partly achieved
2021 goals:
  • Financial goals:
  • Achieve $30,000 stock dividend goal
  • Achieve spending below stock dividends (!)
  • Achieve $40,000 real estate fund dividend
  • Achieve first direct real estate investment
  • Become fully invested (= no cash)
  • Health:
  • Every day either do 8,000 steps, 100 push ups or 5k
  • Try to minimize sugar, fast food and calorie intake
  • Adventure/the important stuff:
  • Publish one hobby project each month
  • Do 1 big trip to either Australia or the US
What: I'm gonna put the pedal to the metal in 2021 both in terms of investments but also in terms of publishing a major (for me) project each month

Why: I think I have a decent chance of making an impact on this world. I need to accumulate as much capital as possible. My initial plan was to use 50% of the returns each year to donate / improve stuff for people once I was securely FI. Right now I'm leaning towards re-investing all returns to take advantage of compound interest. In the end I should be able to do even greater projects/donation.

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

Barebones FI achieved -- in TSLA equity (25x yearly barebones expenses) :lol:

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by ertyu »

dear lord

i don't have a fear of heights, but i assume people standing on ledges have the same feel as me hearing about your TSLA stock :lol:

keeping fingers crossed :D :D

User avatar
giskard
Posts: 320
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: the dollar journal

Post by giskard »

thedollar wrote:
Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:31 pm
  • The market is getting greedy. I feel the same way, but at the same time I know that I shouldn't get carried away. I've done some small investments in Palantir and bitcoin so I guess greed got to me as well.
  • My job situation is worse than ever. Not the job itself but the way I feel about it. Before the job provided me with structure and colleagues (and of course food every day). Now adays I sit at home and do nothing but stress about all the stuff I'm not doing.
This was pretty much my feeling back in November. Wasn't sure what to do and ended up buying some PLTR and bitcoin so literally made the same moves.

Also in a similar job situation, it sucks.

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

December update

Cashflow
Expenses: $N/A
Dividends: $1,962 (-4.7% YoY)
Dividends TTM: $2,278 (+$64 MoM)
Projected annual dividend: N/A

Total networth gain (loss): +$44,088

Investment allocation
Equities: 59.2% (57.3%)
Real estate: 14.0% (11.2%)
Cash: 26.2% (31.1%)
Other: 0.6%
Last edited by thedollar on Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

thedollar
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: the dollar journal

Post by thedollar »

January update

Cashflow
Expenses: $N/A
Dividends: $1,326 (+39.7% YoY)
Dividends TTM: $2,310 (+$32 MoM)
Projected annual dividend: N/A

Total networth gain (loss): +$116,611

Investment allocation
Equities: 59.5% (59.2%)
Real estate: 13.7% (14.0%)
Cash: 26.1% (26.2%)
Other: 0.7% (0.6%)

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