Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Who are the experts that focus on where we currently are in the U.S. business cycle, and who post regular updates? And to what degree can we know we are in a certain stage of the business cycle, vs. only being able to judge where we were in the past?

I think I have a good idea of where we are in this cycle but I want to look into other sources of info on this topic, to either boost my knowledge and confidence level, or deter me from relying too much on economic data that doesn't really have much predictive power.

Also, I'm interested in commentaries on how this business cycle rhymes with past ones, and differences that will impact how the end of this one plays out.

I usually read the Fidelity monthly updates.

http://www.nber.org/

The national bureau of economic research tracks the economy, and they call the beginning and ending of all recessions.

Mind you, they had to change the definition of a recession, in order to call the start of the great recession before the election, so they aren't exactly neutral, but they are about as close as you can get.

Just read a few working papers, to get a feel. Then you can read a few trading blog's, for a feel for indicators. I prefer the MBS trade blog at mortgage news daily.

None of that will allow you to call the next crash or recession. It will get you a good feel for pressures, both up and down.

Good luck.

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/inv ... ness-cycle

Certain sectors tend to outperform others in different phases. Consumer staples > Consumer discretionary during recession, etc.

I am patiently waiting for Portfolio Charts to add sector data so I can backtest an all-stock Permanent Portfolio rip-off. Instead of different Asset Classes for each market condition, use different sectors. The link above is for active management based on market data/forecast.

cmonkey wrote:I usually read the Fidelity monthly updates.

Thanks very much for the link, despite the caveats, I found the diagram in the February report to be very helpful.