Useful Hard Skills for the near future

[theanimal]

You can do it in your house or apartment. The bucket can live in the bathroom or a separate room/closet. I have friends who have their composting toilet adjacent to their kitchen (in an enclosure). There is seriously no smell. The trick in an urban area would be finding carbon based material for cover. I think that is the limiting factor and would be very difficult to come by the more urban you are. I don't keep detailed notes on timing, but our current trash bag of sawdust has lasted more than 2 months for 2 people using it every day as the main "toilet." If you have the space and are concerned about sewage services being shut off, it may be worth getting a trash bag of wood shavings in advance. Any lumber yard and some home improvement stores will give it away for free. Make sure the shavings are from straight wood and do not contain any composite/plastics.

ETA: I forgot about the disposal aspect which I imagine is what you're referring to. I don't suppose most cities would look kindly upon people dropping off their humanure at the local park to compost. I think using the bucket is still is the superior solution and beats out the next alternative (plastic bag?). If you are already going to use a bag and throw the excrement in the trash/dumpster, using a bucket would be no different but would be far easier to use, no smell and help everything compost quicker than something in a bag. Another option would be emptying the bucket into a bag (or 2) and then disposing of that.

[white belt]

You can do it in your house or apartment. The bucket can live in the bathroom or a separate room/closet. I have friends who have their composting toilet adjacent to their kitchen (in an enclosure). There is seriously no smell. The trick in an urban area would be finding carbon based material for cover. I think that is the limiting factor and would be very difficult to come by the more urban you are. I don't keep detailed notes on timing, but our current trash bag of sawdust has lasted more than 2 months for 2 people using it every day as the main "toilet." If you have the space and are concerned about sewage services being shut off, it may be worth getting a trash bag of wood shavings in advance. Any lumber yard and some home improvement stores will give it away for free. Make sure the shavings are from straight wood and do not contain any composite/plastics.

ETA: I forgot about the disposal aspect which I imagine is what you're referring to. I don't suppose most cities would look kindly upon people dropping off their humanure at the local park to compost. I think using the bucket is still is the superior solution and beats out the next alternative (plastic bag?). If you are already going to use a bag and throw the excrement in the trash/dumpster, using a bucket would be no different but would be far easier to use, no smell and help everything compost quicker than something in a bag. Another option would be emptying the bucket into a bag (or 2) and then disposing of that.

I think your suggestions could work in an emergency situation. I know there are also compressed pine shaving products available at big box stores that are designed for animal enclosure bedding, which should also serve the same function. One of my projects is to see if we can use that instead of litter for DGF's cats because it is cheaper and more biodegradeable.

I looked into closed loop compost toilet systems for an urban environment awhile back and ultimately decided the space requirements just aren't practical at this juncture. Rob Greenfield had a setup at his Orlando tiny house which seemed to work, but the disposal is still a challenge. He used 3 sealed 55 gallon drums to compost his humanure for 12 months, so rough estimate is a household of 4 people would require 12 such drums, which takes up a lot of space. I'm not sure if such a setup would work in an area with freezing temperatures, since I imagine there isn't much composting happening in the winter. Then there are the legal issues; all it takes is one neighbor to complain that the drums in your backyard look hazardous or unsightly. I think @Riggerjack made the point in an old thread about the people who know least about sanitation tend to be the ones with the strongest opinions. I feel like a community-sized biogas digester might be a better solution for the urban space, but that requires much more infrastructure.

[Ego]

This is a pretty good overview of the critical infrastructure that is vulnerable to cyber attack

https://cipher.com/blog/the-16-sectors- ... rsecurity/

Sixteen critical sectors.

Communications Sector
Chemical Sector
Commercial Facilities Sector
Critical Manufacturing Sector
Dams Sector
Defense Industrial Base Sector
Emergency Services Sector
Energy Sector
Financial Services Sector
Food and Agriculture Sector
Government Facilities Sector
Healthcare and Public Health Sector
Information Technology Sector
Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste Sector
Transportation Systems Sector
Water and Wastewater Systems Sector

Since it was published we learned about how Israel (allegedly, though I believe they may have admitted it) used Stuxnet to infect Siemens controllers and send centrifuges at the Iranian Natanz nuclear power plant (Russian built) spinning wildly out of control. A thousand centrifuges which comprised about 10% of Iranian capacity were destroyed.

Which of those sixteen are the most likely targets? How can we insulate ourselves from the potential damage?

[white belt]

Cyber warfare can be thought of in similar ways to nuclear warfare, so concepts like proportionality and deterrence play a role. There is no infrastructure that is 100% safe from a cyber attack (except low/no tech), so one has to think in terms of managing risk.

For the individual, the first line of defense is identifying all the ways you are reliant on systems that connect to the internet or other networks. Then work to have alternative options so you aren't so reliant on those systems. This is harder and harder to do because now we are to the point where many modern homes have systems that touch the internet (light bulbs, door knobs, appliances, heating/cooling units, cars, and so on). It's also hard because it's likely that all infrastructure upstream is reliant on some sort of cyber backbone, which is why it is possible for cyber actors to damage things like pipelines, power plants, and water treatment facilities from the other side of the world. Low tech almost always wins if you are concerned about cyber threats.

Basic cyber security practices like using unique passwords, multifactor authentication, keeping devices updated, and so on will provide some robustness against the basic cyber attacks that consumers encounter, but might not do much in a collapse scenario.

Note that the internet is still largely intact in Ukraine, but a prolonged conflict will likely degrade all cyber systems.

[Scott 2]

This is harder and harder to do because now we are to the point where many modern homes have systems that touch the internet

We have dumb everything for this very reason. I can't wrap my head around exposing home infrastructure to the internet. The systems are so difficult to patch or monitor. Even if the vendor has secured them well (highly unlikely), there's little chance they sustain security updates long term. Doing so is prohibitively expense. The benefit just doesn't seem worth the risk.

Same with voice assistants. What stops Amazon from pushing a software update, turning that Echo into a 24/7 surveillance device? I can't get on board.

[ducknald_don]

This is a pretty good overview of the critical infrastructure that is vulnerable to cyber attack

I wonder about that. Ukraine has been under cyber attack but I've seen little to indicate they have had much success. Perhaps all the probing over the last decade has left systems hardened to attack, at least more so than we might have thought.

[Ego]

Note that the internet is still largely intact in Ukraine, but a prolonged conflict will likely degrade all cyber systems.

I wonder about that. Ukraine has been under cyber attack but I've seen little to indicate they have had much success. Perhaps all the probing over the last decade has left systems hardened to attack, at least more so than we might have thought.

Combatants hold weapons in reserve for use when they can have the most impact. High impact exploits like Stuxnet can only be used once. The moment they are deployed they are revealed to the world. Patches are rapidly developed to guard against future exploit.

[7Wannabe5]

I think you guys are smart enough that you could probably hike down to your local water and wastewater plants and get them started up again for everybody.

[jacob]

https://peterkalmus.net/books/read-by-c ... her-earth/ --- which includes the humanure experience.

[Ego]

https://peterkalmus.net/books/read-by-c ... her-earth/ --- which includes the humanure experience.

I read @theanimal's posts about this and pondered where I might get sawdust in an emergency. I usually look up from my computer and out the window when pondering.

“Flushing” is accomplished with a few handfuls of leaves (shredded is best), horse manure (dried is best), or any relatively fine mulch (generally referred to as brown material)

When looking out the window I look at the area of the park where the park maintenance crews bring trees, branches and leaves to mulch them. I just walked over and noticed that the large twigs and bits are on top. Beneath is a thick layer of fluffy sawdust. Right under my nose.

I guess in a pinch we could place several buckets on the fire escape, one on each floor and dump them in a designated area in the park. Reminiscent of turn of the century tenement buildings with shared facilities.

[white belt]

Not sure if this qualifies as a useful hard skill for the near future, but I think another useful thing to have on hand are stimulants for an evacuation scenario. As we've noted, in a short term crisis situation, it's quite likely that you'll eventually have to resort to traveling by foot. It's also extremely likely that as a situation drags on, you are going to be stressed and sleep deprived. In my experience, you're going to want to have some stimulants on hand to keep you going if you can't stop/rest for safety reasons. Most stimulants are also appetite suppressants, which is useful if you're trying to stretch food rations. For obvious reasons, this is not a sustainable or long term solution; more of a short term enhancement to get you out of trouble.

Here are some common stimulants:

Caffeine
This is the one most people are familiar with. Caffeine is a well documented performance enhancer in athletics. I find caffeine pills, gum, and the "energy" gummy candies/snacks to be the most effective if one is also having to do a lot of physical activity. The chewing associated with gum can help to further keep you awake. Coffee and tea are inconvenient to consume, require effort to prepare, and can lead to GI distress if one is also on the move. It's also much easier to track caffeine doses with the former than with the latter. One downside of caffeine is that due to it's long half life, it is very likely to disrupt your sleep if taken within a few hours of a rest period.

Nicotine
Most people are familiar with the common nicotine delivery methods like cigarettes, chewing tobacco, vapes, and cigars. Although those could make for good barter items in an emergency, they also will draw a lot of attention to you. If you don't want to be taking in a bunch of bonus carcinogens along with your nicotine, I recommend going with something like nicotine gum. It has the same advantages of the gum mentioned above. Another advantage of nicotine is that it has a much less disruptive effect on sleep compared to caffeine, so it could be useful for times when you just need to stay awake for a few hours before going to bed.

There are of course other options (see pharmaceutical industry), but those are the two most widely available and legal across jurisdictions.

[Ego]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/ukraini ... drive.html

Fadey tells CNBC that he made a peer-to-peer (P2P) exchange with a friend, trading $600 worth of his bitcoin savings for złoty, the Polish national currency, which he then used to pay for a bus across the border, a bed in a hostel for him and his girlfriend, and some food.

The speed and ease of that crypto transaction proved instrumental. Within two hours of Fadey’s safe passage into Poland, Ukraine closed its borders to all men of fighting age.

Fadey also took a USB stick with him across the border containing 40% of his life savings, or about $2,000 in bitcoin. That thumb drive, combined with a unique passcode, became the key to his financial survival.

and

“How are you going to access your Ukrainian bank account in Poland? Good luck,” said Gladstein. Even with the laws passed to protect asylum seekers, Gladstein warns that most Ukrainian refugees won’t be able to just walk into the Bank of Poland and open a bank account.

“Not everybody has a crypto wallet, but those who do are treating it like a bank account and transacting with it in these times of need,”

[zbigi]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/ukraini ... drive.html

In this story, he still needed someone local in Poland who'd buy crypto from him. Does not sound like a very reliable solution for his particular situation, although apparently there are some cash machines in Poland which allow you to exchange bitcoin for cash (https://flyingatom.com/bankomaty-bitcoin/).

[Ego]

In this story, he still needed someone local in Poland who'd buy crypto from him.

https://localbitcoins.com/country/PL

Or Bisq. Also, on the ground word spreads on who can be trusted in person.

[Ego]

That's where getting into the habit of having a buffer (instead of a stock that just sits in a closet) and being able to turn it into edible meals comes in as a "hard skill".

Two weeks ago I pulled the last 3lb bag of raw pumpkin seeds from our stockpile in the bomb shelter basement and began watching prices both locally and from the restaurant supply houses. The cheapest I could find was a 10lb bag of conventionally grown Chinese pumpkin seeds for $5.60 a pound so I waited. Last week Sprouts had organic raw pepitas on sale for $4.99 a pound, the best price I've seen in years, so I called and ordered a case. Picked it up today. At the rate we eat them it should last about 6 months.

[Ego]

From NYT
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/opin ... ussia.html

First, the electricity went out. Then the water disappeared. Money lost its value. Bartering — gasoline for bread, bread for cigarettes, cigarettes for firewood — took its place.

Cold: It’s cold everywhere. There is no heat. It’s the same temperature inside as it is outside.

Water: The most expensive thing. They drank water from puddles. They drank water from the central heating system. They drank water from the snow. Happy are those who found natural springs. But they are a minority.

Shelter: You make it out of anything. After the entire Livoberezhny district was turned into ruins, people took shelter in the theater. They seemed safe. But a Russian bomb from a Russian plane killed many of them.

Security: A word that has lost all its meaning.

Dead people: Everywhere. At first, people tried to bury in mass graves, but when the density of shelling made it impossible, people just lie covered with sheets. Everywhere.

— Petro Andrushchenko, 47, a Mariupol city official

[johnsmith84730]

What could specifically happen is that more than one major breadbasket fails in the same year.

Jacob - I would be interested to hear your thoughts on global food supply-chain risks at the moment with the Russia-Ukraine war seemingly not ending any time soon, and the massive amount of calories that will likely be missing from several high-risk countries in the next few months...

[Gilberto de Piento]

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/10903127 ... ere-rubles

More bartering stories:

When the USSR collapsed, the ruble tanked and items like bricks became a more desirable form of payment. The post-Soviet economy became a laboratory for curious experiments in money. A barter economy briefly emerged. Then a gas-backed currency. All this in less than 10 years.

[jacob]

Jacob - I would be interested to hear your thoughts on global food supply-chain risks at the moment with the Russia-Ukraine war seemingly not ending any time soon, and the massive amount of calories that will likely be missing from several high-risk countries in the next few months...

As far as I can figure out, the world grow 750Mt of wheat. 172Mt are exports. Russia/Ukraine is responsible for 30% of those exports so 51.6Mt or 6.8% of what the world grows in total. The real problem here is not missing 6.8% of calories but that prices are much higher (+40%) since the war started. Wheat futures remain elevated well into 2023. This will price people who spend the majority of their budget (40-60%) on food (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%8 ... ice_crisis ) out of the market, whereas first worlders who spend 15-20% of their budget on food may only experience more expensive steaks and burgers ... and continue to pay it thus pricing poorer countries out of the market. A wise move would be to have strategic reserves of food, both personally but also nationally. The world still very much operates on a JIT-delivery system where the world's reserves are pretty much all "in transit".

[Campitor]

The world still very much operates on a JIT-delivery system where the world's reserves are pretty much all "in transit".

The industry standard is to keep 3 to 5 day worth of inventory on hand; decades of experience as a buyer of medical supplies and supply chain analysis are my bona fides. Even the factories making the products operate on JIT (just in time) for their raw materials.

There are some industries that keep a month supply of hard to procure materials, and will increase inventory if they suspect a supply crunch is coming; this hoarding causes downstream impacts as other industries try to procure the same raw materials. It also increases operating costs since more inventory on hand means more money tied up inventory rather than operations or other capital requirements; you don't earn money on supplies sitting on shelves until they are sold to consumers. The cost of idle inventory is folded into the price of the consumable.

I'm very concerned about these supply disruptions. Bread/gluten is in everything. In the US, wheat can be replaced by corn from a caloric standpoint; both are products with a long shelf life. And wheat production can be increased if its selling price makes it competitive to grow. Currently government subsidies make it profitable to grow crops (like corn or soy) over more desirable/needed agricultural items. Of course any change in food products takes time since you can speed-grow crops.