dull numbers journal

Where are you and where are you going?
ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by ertyu »

10cents wrote:
Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:23 am
it was terrible time for us as a humans. War. I didnt expect I can face it in my life.
I cant even imagine the pain, fear and anger of Ukrainian people. The first 2 weeks I started every day and ended every day reading new about the war. Tough time for me because I'm so empathetic man.
Strength. This was hard on all of us from that corner of the world. For me, it created a structural break in how I see the world. It made me realize how ephemeral everything is and how little one can rely on. Witnessing what happened -- and keeps happening -- both to Ukraine and to the young Russian men -- mean who had hopes and lives -- who have been murdered for nothing has been deeply, deeply sad. Wishing us all a better 2023.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

Life goes on like was in the past. No significant changes in both work and family life, except inflation. Inflation is a rule changer. Is 4% Rule still appropriate? Stocks, commodities and bonds can't beat inflation. Where I'm on financial independece way?
It is above stability but below Independence. I have enough savings to have good life for 12 years. But what would it be after? My investments income are not sufficient to have current standard of living for the rest of my life. Will I ever reach it? My NW (excluding house I live in) is 500K. Definitely great success - because 6 years ago it was only 18K.
To be compatible with 4% rule I would have over 1M. Will I ever get it? High saving ratio is not enough to reach FIRE in Poland in a few years. Salaries are too low. Now 4% of 500K gives 1666 PN a month and it is only 48,5 % of the sum I need. 6 years is only a half way to FIRE for me. Will I get it before I go retirement? I'm to old to retire young. I can only be social security-independent person and it will be my achievable target.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

February started something new and something bad in my work. Certain moves seem unclear. No promotions, no pay rise. Nervous behavior of the company's management. Could it be a crisis knocking on the door of the company I work for? It has been the first time for 6 years when I feel stressed at work. Every little mistake was magnified. Personally, I don't feel threatened, I had an annual review last month and I was rated: 'above the expectations'. I still continue to live my simple and frugal life with ~75% saving ratio and observe what will happen.
NW: 517K,
monthly cost of living = 3.515,
147 months of living out of my savings
or 49,17% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

NW: 526K
monthly cost of living = 3.530,
149 months of living out of my savings
or 49,68% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by ertyu »

strength, im following your journal even if i don't say much but im rooting for you and everyone else from poland

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

Last month was a time of both personal and work stabilization. Nothing really relevant happened. Slowly baby steps towards FI. I'm safisfied with my assets outcome. Yes, there are profitable. No, inflation cannot be overcome. I started to think about this year holidays. I have some dreams about it, like wandering on a bike on Europe. It requires some preparation and ideas where, when and how. I have never been to Paris, Bruxell or Amsterdam. I haven't seen an Ocean. It seems to be a time in my life when I can make my dreams come true, and of course I dont want to ruin my savings.

NW: 535K
monthly cost of living = 3.545,
151 months of living out of my savings
or 50,3% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

So, it seams, that my calculations anticipate 300 months of living when I retire (unfortunaltely, not early).

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by guitarplayer »

Just in case you don't know, this site has some good advice on cycling holidays in Europe

https://en.eurovelo.com/

Not all the routes are equally developed and some are more aspirational than others. You can browse when time allows. 5 of the 19 routes pass through Poland, but you could probably very easily catch a train to some other place in Europe.

ETA: Also, do you think your spending is standard in where you live or on the lower side?

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

@guitarplayer, I do know eurovelo site and some eurovelo trails. I have traversed EV 11 and EV 13 in Hungary before covid-19. Now I look for more.
My spendings are bizzare. I save every single PLN on needless spending and reward myself with one single big sensible spending. I dress almost like a poor man, I commute to work by bus or by train, I dont have any fancy electronic devices but I try to spend ~ 1 month on an abroda vacations a year. See diffent culture, ciusine, cities. But, to sum up - I live very frugal life, like 'one pair of shoes a year' and 'winter jacket one for 5 years' - both good quality but bought on promotion.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

I see a new and powerful enemy - inflation. What does the profitability of my investments matter if inflation is higher. There ia another one enemy. The government. They introduce laws significantly increasing minimum wages and that causes to inflation go high and high and high. But my investemnts (savings) can not beat the inflation. All this means that although I have more savings, I become relatively poorer that I was.
Where to look for extremely profitable investemts but at the same time, safe investemnts. Is my going toward Financial independent doomed to fail. For the last two years I tried to diversify my saving, but this is not enought. Whether it's stocks or bonds or renting an apartment, inflation can't be beat.

NW: 546K
monthly cost of living = 3.560,
153 months of living out of my savings
or 51,1% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

I needed to adjust my monthly cost of living. It grows faster than I expected, but summer is already here in Poland. Summer is good, summer is cheap. Ones can buy more vegetables and prepare cheaper food. Situation in work starts to be worse. There is a tension 'in the air'. Some managers bahave strange and this impact on workers. I dont like this sotuation. I started to worry about what willl happen in my workplace. But, nevertheless, I have a big financial cushion and it makes me not to be scared.

NW: 556K
monthly cost of living = 3.660,
152 months of living out of my savings
or 50,6% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by guitarplayer »

Well done keeping the cost of life still rather low despite the inflation @10cents!

Wondered if you are aware of and what do you make out of the new legislation coming to force on Saturday in Poland. Seems like first time buyers
- can open accounts and deposit up to 2000 PLN / month where the funds will be inflation protected/linked and interest rates will be free of income tax
- can take mortgages for their first flat that are capped at 2% interest

Caught my attention a short while back.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

This offer is great for buyers, I wish it wasnot introduced 20 years ago, I would go. Now, its not for me, but it could be for my kids.

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by guitarplayer »

Yep it looks good, though I would check with you as you are more in touch with the economy than me. If @zbigi reads your journal, maybe he could chip in with his thoughts.

I have recommended it to my sister and myself am considering participating. Even if I end up with a property abroad before, I read in their FAQ that properties abroad are disregarded in terms of eligibility due to logistics.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

Situation in work became to be harder and harder. New manager introduces new way of team management. Management by shifting responsibilities to others and avoiding replying to emails. I don't predict it will last a years when something bad happen. 6 months ago I wouldn't even think about job change. I would be wondering if and when he will get a promotion. Now, situation is quite opposite. I need to increase saving liquidity and prepare for job change. Relationships between employees become worse - and I don't like it.
What are my job change prospects? I hope there are good. I don't want to finish my carrier now.

NW: 566K
monthly cost of living = 3.690,
153 months of living out of my savings
or 51,2% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

I went on a holidays, but taking into account price increases, this time it was a out of the beaten track holidays. I went to Czech Republic. This country is close to Poland, so costs of transportations were low. Accommodation prices prices are low also. There is a lot to do if you prefer active holidays (not a beach holidays). Cost of food, beer, cravings is also low. I think that cost of holidays in popular tourist places is too high and inexplicable. 200 euro for night in a room for 2 in Italy? 120 euro for night in a room for 2 in Croatia? I said - No. In Czech Republic you will pay 40-60 euro for night in a room for 2. Back to investments - process of diversification is ongoing. I don't like what is happening in Poland, when you consider budget expenses. It will end up earlier or sooner with currency crash - like in a Hungary. I sold some of PLN assets ( bonds and stocks) and bought some etf valued in EUR currency. It was only 7% of my assets but I will successively do similar operations.

NW: 584K
monthly cost of living = 3,705,
157 months of living out of my savings
or 52,6% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

A few sentences about my saving ratio/budgeting. My salary is about 12,100 and my wife salary is about 8,800, so we have 20,900 combined/month. This is pretty high for Poland, it is about 2 x average family income. We both have PPE (private company pension scheme) with our contribution 2,600 both of us. So 20,900 - 5,200 = 15,700. Our cost of living (food, bills, petrol, public transport tickets) is about 5,000. So 15,700 - 5,000 = 10,700. Yes, we still have a mortgage for our house, and it is 1,200. So, 10,700 - 1, 200 = 9,500. Each year we want to go on a holidays, that holidays are also frugal and I dont want a big expense in a single month, I put aside about 1,000 per month, and this makes 12,000 yearly holidays budget. So, 9,500 - 1000= 8,500. If yyou have a house, a family, a car, there are irregular expenses (home insurance, car insurance, private dental care, some staff can break down). I dont want theses expenses make my budget unpredictable, so I put aside another 1000 per month. So 8,500 - 1000 = 7,500. Later on, there are tax dedectable pension account (in Poland called IKZE) with limit 8,000 per person, per year. Both me and my wife have one and we put asside ~ 1400 per month on them. So 7,500 - 1,400 = 6,100. I want to get rid of my mortgage in a few years, so I over paid my mortagage about 3,000 per month. So, 6,100 - 3000 = 3,100. There is also 1,000 craving/emergency/improvement budget for house/garden redecoration, children school trips, kitchenware replacements, small gift for family/ any unexpected and unpredictable expenses. So, 3,100 - 1000 = 2,100. The rest goes for another pension saving account, called IKE for which you dont need to pay taxes from profits. (Yes, we have in Poland 4 types of pension saving account), and both of us have 3.
------

NW: 593K
minimum monthly cost of living = 3,720,
160 months of living out of my savings
or 53,5% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

The diffenrences between minimum monthly cost of living and my current cost of living are, because, we dont live on a minimal spendig. We afford for much more than minimal cost of living. And current cost of living includes children keep, but there are 15 and 20 years old and we expect them to leave out house in 3-5 years, and then we will be living with mentioned above minimal monthly cost of living.

zbigi
Posts: 978
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by zbigi »

10cents wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2023 7:09 am
or 53,5% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.
Hello from another Pole :) Have you given any thought to how to get the 4% average real returns, particularly while living in Poland? Or is the "fullfill 4% rule" just a milestone and not an ultimate goal?

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

4% rule is a books-based treshold, when you savings are high enought to retire early. For me it is a point in time (or it can be my target). Times are interesting, and many things can happen after parliament elections. I try to get ready for each election result and portfolio diversification is my best friend. I have both polish stocks (thera are vey undervalued now, but it can change when PO will win an election). I have foreign etf, both index eft and sector etf like IT or Health Care companies. I also have both polish bonds and foreing bonds. Polish bonds are pretty interesting, especially 10 years bond which are inflation bases. Some cupons are ~15% a year, but polish currency value drop is less than 15% a year, so polish bonds can overbeat DE or NL bonds. I also have USA corporate bonds (in investment founds). So, I look for win-win strategy nevertheles who will win in government elections. Can I get 4% average real return? Will polish currency lost his value? Are polish shares better than overprices foreing ones? Nobady knows the future.

10cents
Posts: 113
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents »

The situation at work became normal, but some factors are unfavorable for me. I started to observe generational gaps. I work with young people. I work with only young people. There is only 1 person in my team (30 people) that is less than 10 years younger. Its a new challenge for me. Work, communicate and cooperate with people half my age. Is it hard for me? No, but it is strange. I feel like kind of mammoth. People do respect me, but there is an invisible border between us. I don't like it, but how can I expect to disappear it. I know, this is only work, but month after month I feel like I don't fit in this job. This is a task for me to beat it.

NW: 606K
minimum monthly cost of living = 3,735,
162 months of living out of my savings
or 54,1% of the sum, when I can fulfill 4% rule.

delay
Posts: 182
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:21 am
Location: Netherlands, EU

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by delay »

10cents wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:51 am
The situation at work became normal, but some factors are unfavorable for me. I started to observe generational gaps. I work with young people. I work with only young people. There is only 1 person in my team (30 people) that is less than 10 years younger. Its a new challenge for me. Work, communicate and cooperate with people half my age. Is it hard for me? No, but it is strange. I feel like kind of mammoth. People do respect me, but there is an invisible border between us. I don't like it, but how can I expect to disappear it. I know, this is only work, but month after month I feel like I don't fit in this job. This is a task for me to beat it.
The invisible border is a familiar feeling! Most of my colleagues are 20+ years younger.

It was initially surprising that I could pass on so little knowledge. They make the very mistakes I told them about for without even realizing it. Transferring knowledge is unexpectedly hard.
10cents wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:51 am
minimum monthly cost of living = 3,735,
In what currency? 3,735 zlotych is 836 euro or 885 dollar.

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