Brexit

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GandK
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Re: Brexit

Post by GandK »

bryan wrote:All I know, is this would be a great time for Netflix to come out with a new series "House of Cards: UK"
I'm 99% sure House of Cards was originally a British show and the Kevin Spacey version on Netflix is a knockoff. That said, you're right... this Brexit stuff would definitely make for good TV drama. 8-)

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »

100% guarantee that it was (just like The Office)... However, they're both quite different in "vibe"). Strangely I prefer the US versions in both cases as they went more in depth.

Incidentally, it's quite interesting to compare the US House Cards (present times) (so Gen X style) to West Wing (late 1990s) (so Boomer style).

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Peanut wrote:
BRUTE wrote:brute has heard that the brexit might be bad for britain's financial industry, but good for everybody else, or more working class people there. probably not a coincidence that in England, only London voted to remain.
What?? Only Birmingham voted leave out of all the major cities. Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bristol, and London were all remain.
Birmingham is an anomaly as the municipality is very large and includes a lot of suburbs. It is the biggest municipality in the UK with over a million people. Maybe the central area of Birmingham voted for Remain? By contrast, Manchester and Bristol have a lot of their suburbs in neighbouring municipalities. Taking Manchester as I know it well, the city itself is very modern and outward-looking whereas the neighbouring municipalities to the north especially are very insular and working class.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Boris Johnson, the main ringleader for Brexit, this morning says:

"EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU."
"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down."

So great, business as usual. But then he says:

"Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry."

So how on earth does he expect the EU to accept free movement for UK citizens whilst imposing a points system in the other direction?

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Egg wrote:Sure, it'll make it harder for a Brit to move to an EU country and vice versa, but that's hardly the end of the world.
Maybe you don't care about that, but it is the number 1 concern for me. It is completely wrong to make people live in the UK when, for example, the Netherlands is so much better. Just compare the cycling facilities and local public transport. Crucially too, the Netherlands allows assisted dying.

I might be alright as I'm reasonably wealthy and highly educated so would probably pass visa restrictions as I don't need to work. But what about the young people who want a better life? For example, British people can escape the extortionate university fees by studying English language degrees at Dutch universities and pay the much lower tuition fees there. Outside the EU, this may no longer be possible. Of course, kids with wealthy parents will always be fine.

So under a Brexit, individuals may well experience great hardship that they wouldn't otherwise have had. Hardship caused by continued EU membership is harder to argue.

There should be arrangements that UK citizens who want to maintain their EU citizenship can do so.

ducknalddon
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Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

bryan wrote:anyone else think there won't really be a brexit (https://twitter.com/nuttycom/status/746808436491431936)? though you have to wonder if Scotland or commerce may act too quickly.
I suspect that is wishful thinking. Judging by all the recent politics in the UK and EU I would guess we will have a half exit a sort of watered down agreement that nobody will like, we will probably end up with something that is nearly free trade and nearly free movement.

Egg
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Re: Brexit

Post by Egg »

radamfi wrote:Maybe you don't care about that, but it is the number 1 concern for me.


I am concerned that you don't seen to appreciate the compromise inherent in democracy and about your mistaken impression that the country is obliged to vote line with your personal priorities.
radamfi wrote: I might be alright as I'm reasonably wealthy and highly educated so would probably pass visa restrictions as I don't need to work. But what about the young people who want a better life?
Wait, I thought this was all about you? No? Those people, the working class with no fancy education or skills who will struggle to emigrate are the xenophobic thicko leave voters you were denouncing earlier. I presume they have a less 'greener grass' view of non-UK countries than you. Or are you talking about your fellow educated and wealthy crowd, who probably voted remain but will almost certainly be fine to work abroad even out of the EU as they have something useful to contribute to the receiving country?

I hope you are trolling because although your remain opinions do not bother me, your undemocratic views are incredible.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Egg wrote:I am concerned that you don't seen to appreciate the compromise inherent in democracy and about your mistaken impression that the country is obliged to vote line with your personal priorities.
The point is, there should never have been a vote that could potentially lead to such extreme hardship. If you want to leave the EU then fine, but don't ruin innocent people's lives in the process and let them stay in the EU.
Egg wrote:Wait, I thought this was all about you? No? Those people, the working class with no fancy education or skills who will struggle to emigrate are the xenophobic thicko leave voters you were denouncing earlier. I presume they have a less 'greener grass' view of non-UK countries than you. Or are you talking about your fellow educated and wealthy crowd, who probably voted remain but will almost certainly be fine to work abroad even out of the EU as they have something useful to contribute to the receiving country?
I'm talking about those people who may not have succeeded at school for various reasons, for example because they grew up in a dysfunctional family, but who nevertheless see the benefits of studying/living/working in the EU outside of the UK. Or those who did do well at school but can't afford to go to a UK university because of the fees and don't want the huge debt. I actually come from a working class background and have immigrant parents, but luckily university was free when I went and I even got grants to live off. I am in the position I am in now through extreme frugality and not through high earnings, broadly along the lines followed in Jacob's blog. I have never earned enough to pay higher rate tax.
Egg wrote:I hope you are trolling because although your remain opinions do not bother me, your undemocratic views are incredible.
So you don't believe I'm deeply upset and depressed because my life's dreams could be in a mess and just trolling for fun?
Last edited by radamfi on Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:07 am, edited 2 times in total.

GandK
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Re: Brexit

Post by GandK »

It's not extreme hardship for everyone, though. For some, the EU created more pain than gain. I could be wrong about how Britain works, but here in the US it's the uneducated blue collar folks who do not benefit from immigration. So they tend to vote against it. And we end up with things like Trump (and Brexit). Not because people are xenophobic halfwits, but because it is literally not in these people's best interests for new people who are willing to do their jobs for half the pay to move in next door to them. The newcomers may be trying to make a better life, but that situation would not make life better for those already there. It would cause them hardship. And do their rights not matter? A lot of the US media doesn't care about these people's hardships. Again, hence Donald Trump.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

In the UK, eastern/central Europeans have been doing jobs that working class Brits don't want to do. Without the immigrants, the vacancies would stay unfilled. Unemployment is not particularly high in the UK and if it wasn't for the immigrants (EU and otherwise) a lot of public service, especially the health service, would be in deep trouble.

GandK
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Re: Brexit

Post by GandK »

But isn't that because those industries and jobs don't pay a living wage? That's the problem over here. Take health service. Immigrants take any available job at any available wage, and if the wage is insufficient, they get a second or third job. Natives tend to say they want another $5 an hour before they'll consider that job when a wage won't support them. Is the problem then the natives or the company paying the wages that no one can live on? Wages will always continue to stay low until no more people are willing to take three jobs. Those who benefit from this are immigrants and the company owners (already rich). Not the existing middle class.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Low pay is an issue in the UK, although it has been mitigated by tax credits and now the recently introduced "living wage". If wages are too low then it's the government's responsibility to set the minimum wage appropriately and has nothing to do with the EU.

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »

Today's [US] hangover after Friday's blood bath: Financials still hurting. The rest of it is mostly just the dollar being up further which drags US companies down in general but especially big exporters/transnationals (Apple, Walgreen, etc...) and the energy sector and its relatives. Viewed in other currencies, it doesn't look nearly as bad.

(Anyone with discretionary/active investments should now have a pretty good idea of how they will perform against the market when things go down.)

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Trading in RBS and Barclays was suspended for a while. After 2008 I decided I would never directly buy shares in financials ever again.

BRUTE
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Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

radamfi wrote:So under a Brexit, individuals may well experience great hardship that they wouldn't otherwise have had. Hardship caused by continued EU membership is harder to argue.
Bastiat pointed out this way of thinking ages ago (http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html). That which is seen, and that which is not seen.

it's always easier to point to things that have existed and now won't exist, but that doesn't mean those things are stronger/more important/better than the as of yet unseen things that might come to be or saved.

this might be the cause of unintended consequences. all else being equal, everybody likes free trade and movement. but all else is not equal, and the effect was impoverishment of the lower and middle classes.

brude also agrees with GandK, there are winners and losers of globalization. the winners vote for it, the losers against. hence the urban/rural split. claiming that the brexit voters are dumb because they have different interests is a bit short sighted.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Judging by today's pronouncements EEA membership is looking most likely, which should be the least worst option, but that doesn't seem to have calmed the markets.

As soon as the turmoil in the two main parties start to clear up (yes folks, the UK stupidly has a First Past the Post system so only those two parties matter) we have to campaign strongly for EEA membership and not take anything for granted this time.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

I just found out that Labour voters voted strongly for Remain by about 2 to 1. So it is actually the middle class Tory voters who have voted us out, rather than the working class Labour voters worried about immigrants taking low paid jobs.

saving-10-years
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Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

These two articles makes interesting reading. The first captures the mood of the working class beyond the affluent cities in some of the more neglected corners of the country (based on some great journalism as counterpoint to what we usually get). http://www.theguardian.com/politics/com ... estminster Story rather than stats.

The second (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/ho ... /)includes the graphic below and is based on a survey of nearly 12.5k voters. Its striking that all categories from lower middle class down (C1, C2 and D) showed a majority voting to leave and 2/3 of council and housing association tenants did so. Its also asked why people voted as they did. Lots of different slices of that data, including by party and (second pic) attitudes. Stats rather than story. (Perhaps the most interesting of all is that c.10% made up their minds on the day they voted, it was not a clear or easy and straightforward decision for many of those who voted).

Image

Image

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Can the "Leave" people on here say whether they would be happy with EEA membership (so including full single market access and freedom of movement)? I see this as fair compromise as we would still be "out" whilst minimising the downsides of leaving the EU.

saving-10-years
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Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

@Bryan
this would be a great time for Netflix to come out with a new series "House of Cards: UK"
Several episodes drawing on the 33* resignations from the Shadow Cabinet within 24 hours with the Labour leader (Corbyn) still sticking to his guns. (Well its the UK so these are not guns as you guys understand them).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... -on-after/

EDIT: * its now 34

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