Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

[giskard]

Update Dec 4th 2023

It's crypto season again, NW back up to 1.5 million lmfao.

If your networth doesn't have a +50% yearly volatility, what are you doing? Are you even trying to retire bro?

[Lemur]

I held SoFi despite being down 90% at one point. Does that count? lol. It was never 50% of my networth though

A friend made me aware of BitCoin in 2012. If I could go back…

Have fun in Asia travels btw. Also something I want to do one day.

[giskard]

I held SoFi despite being down 90% at one point. Does that count? lol. It was never 50% of my networth though

A friend made me aware of BitCoin in 2012. If I could go back…

Have fun in Asia travels btw. Also something I want to do one day.

Yep fun in markets , SOFI looks like a good ride too. I had many BTC in 2012, hundreds. I sold them all for, idk, about $7 average price during the very first bubble. I try not think about it.

I will post here about how it goes! Already bought some plane tickets!

[bostonimproper]

It's crypto season again, NW back up 1.5 million lmfao.

If your networth doesn't have a +50% yearly volatility, what are you even doing? Are you even trying to retire bro?

I'm honestly flummoxed by how on-point the four year cycle seems to be. Not that I’m complaining.

[giskard]

I'm honestly flummoxed by how on-point the four year cycle seems to be. Not that I’m complaining.

The fact that tradfi completely ignores this highly predictable and tradable phenomena is what is flummoxing. It's like jesus guys your job is to make money. Here is some money. It happened 4 times before in extremely similar ways.

[giskard]

I'm thinking hard about how to best get max long risk assets now without liquidatable leverage.

What are the riskiest risk assets? Probably dog coins, AKA meme coins.

I will summarize how I'm thinking about the time period we are in now with a meme:
(maybe you all don't see this on the horizon, but I am seeing it)



I have been thinking a lot about George Soros.

Reflexivity. Memetic virality. TikTok. Things are going to move even faster and stupider than in 2021.

People will be prepared for this, they will sense it like sharks in the water and the bubbles will be ferocious and insane.

I am seeing it NOW. People are front-running the frontrun. It's insane.

Here is a popular dog coin that listed this morning on coinbase. You can see exactly what hour it started trading:




One problem is finding the fastest horses.

Another problem is getting into them at good entries.

The next problem is knowing when to get out.

What are the top signals?

I am good with a 50% loss on a 500% gain. It's not as simple as selling at some 200 day moving average cross. It's not going to be that easy this time. We are in the clown timeline and things will be even more insane than last time.

Anyway, my feeling is hounds have been unleashed. I haven't seen this much frenzy in the markets in more than two years.

It's a lot of work to find this junk and then build conviction enough to enter and hold positions and ride them up through enormous gains without dumping then for a 2x or a 3x and feeling safe. A lot of them will go -99.9% loss if you don't get out. Quality high beta will go -80%. More risky stuff will go more like 90% to 95% loss. The absolute trash will flatline at -99.9% and never recover.

But if you are right... Every 2k you yolo into something might net out 20k at the top.

[bostonimproper]

Honestly the top signals seem kind of obvious? Like Elon Musk going on SNL, “to the moon.” It’s not exactly subtle.

At the very least, you can follow some VC’s and when they start pumping their bags, you’ll know they’re looking for exit liquidity. Or when Vitalik sells his coins to donate you’ll know it’s a local top, though that’ll probably be less of a tell in this SOL cycle.

For what it’s worth, I’m planning to sit on my ETH and SOL allocations and minimally trade this cycle. Maybe I’ll throw some airdrops into one or two things, but I honestly can’t take 18 months of constantly checking my phone to watch the price movements of the new CumRocket.

[giskard]

I honestly can’t take 18 months of constantly checking my phone to watch the price movements of the new CumRocket.

It's hard work but somebody has got to do it

Or when Vitalik sells his coins to donate you’ll know it’s a local top, though that’ll probably be less of a tell in this SOL cycle.

This one is on my list: "Ethereum foundation sells ethereum".

Another one is: Coinbase #1 app in the app store.

[giskard]

Investing in crypto is 90% market psychology and 10% fundamentals. It's both harder and easier than traditional markets.

One memecoin I personally like and thought was funny was one called "HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu", ticker $BITCOIN.



A very ironypilled memecoin obviously. It's so blatantly stupid that it's actually a little too intellectual with the layers of self-effacement.

Visit their website and you a greeted with late 90s era web aesthetic:


This worries me: too clever by half is the phrase that comes to mind.

Therefore I didn't allocate a single penny into it. It has crabbed around recently and done nothing after it hit a high of 100m market cap.

Let me show you another one:

"Dog wif hat" ticker $WIF.

People on twitter say things like "it made me laugh". Everyone is posting pictures of dogs with hats on.

This coin has performed remarkably well:



This one got to 100 million mk cap very quickly. If it breaks out of that it might be a runner. I'm not sure yet but I haven't allocated to this memecoin either. I'm sticking to the bluechips (DOGE & BONK).

You have think stupider

The people buying these now while they are ONLY on dexes are: tactical traders & speculators.

Ok, now think of the stupidest person you know who could do the dumbest possible thing with money and make it even stupider. You can't even get into this mindset - your IQ is too high.

But later, once they get listed on the big exchanges you need to think like this. Then the people buying them will be: the yolo-ets, the uneducated, the uninitiated, the crypto novices, the tiktokers. Basically "the unwashed masses".

The traders & speculators will, in net, take their money every single time.

But only if they get listed on the major exchanges. These people cannot figure how to use metamask or phantom so easily. Managing private keys securely is a high IQ task. I don't make the rules, it just is.

Do you think these people will install a browser extension and write down 12 words? Absolutely not. It needs to be stupidly simple and from the app store. It needs to take a credit card or cash app or whatever.

Stupidity is the thesis

The one memecoin that is already listed on the all major exchanges that I am unsure of is PEPE coin. It blew up last May and that in itself is remarkable for a bear market. It's listed everywhere, but is the meme too intellectual?

Does PEPE appeal to the most low IQ people you know? No, sorry I just simply don't think it does. It appeals to a terminally online crowd of 4chan nerds but sorry you need it to appeal to the guy that made a ton of money on commission selling used cars last month and wants to "yolo" it. It needs to appeal to the personal trainer building an instagram/tiktok following making 50k a month shilling products and paid course referral links.

And finally, it needs to appeal to the great white whale: dumb, rich professional athletes. E.g. Dennis Rodman. E.g. Mike Tyson. E.g. Allen Iverson

Anyway, this is my thinking going into the next year. I want to allocate to the most broadly appealing meme coins that get so large they are on the main exchanges and cults of idiots are forming around them.

These markets are social in nature, who do you want to be trading against?

[white belt]

The fact that tradfi completely ignores this highly predictable and tradable phenomena is what is flummoxing. It's like jesus guys your job is to make money. Here is some money. It happened 4 times before in extremely similar ways.

I don’t think this is true. Maybe pre COVID it was, but nowadays every trader knows very well how crypto trends vs various other assets. There may be some institutional funds that have their hands a bit tied due to regulatory reasons, but I can assure you there is a ton of “smart” money operating in the space, legally or illegally. Like your other posts say, there are people front-running the front-runners. It’s not hard for someone with some money to move the market on various smaller coins.

Most macro thinkers I’ve listened to have been increasing crypto holdings over the last few months to hedge the possibility that a soft landing happens. I need to check my sentiment indicators and positioning indicators to see of the vibe I’m getting from my personal life and information sources lines up or not. I feel like there is a lot of bullishness because of Santa Claus rally.

[giskard]

I don’t think this is true. Maybe pre COVID it was, but nowadays every trader knows very well how crypto trends vs various other assets. There may be some institutional funds that have their hands a bit tied due to regulatory reasons, but I can assure you there is a ton of “smart” money operating in the space, legally or illegally. Like your other posts say, there are people front-running the front-runners. It’s not hard for someone with some money to move the market on various smaller coins.

Most macro thinkers I’ve listened to have been increasing crypto holdings over the last few months to hedge the possibility that a soft landing happens. I need to check my sentiment indicators and positioning indicators to see of the vibe I’m getting from my personal life and information sources lines up or not. I feel like there is a lot of bullishness because of Santa Claus rally.

Yes, agreed, they know about "Crypto" which to them is just the oldest & largest market cap stuff that is easily accessible.

Guarantee you 99% of them never ventured on chain and have signed a transaction before. Meanwhile there are 5 figure airdrops happening.

But disagree that most macro thinkers are seriously positioning into even bitcoin, it feels like still a small minority to me. I follow a mix of traditional finance people and crypto people and the tradfi people seem to be in disbelief that the "Mag 7" keep running and are too afraid to touch anything riskier. They are all falling over themselves predicting big moves in the bond market one way or another and they seem to think the bottom is about to fall out of the economy.

[giskard]

We are 4 market days post pivot, risk assets continue to rip.

My thesis is simple:

[Slevin]

So let me try to understand:

The theory is, people are dumb and will buy altcoins. But you are smart, so what you will do is also buy altcoins, but the difference is that you will sell them off near the market top, while everybody else sells them after they crash?

And you choose altcoins by the combination of memes they represent, so you want a meme that is mainstream enough for people to get, but also hasn't quite blown up yet?

[mathiverse]

My understanding of the argument is different than yours, Slevin. I may have misunderstood though.

I think the theory is that people are dumb, so they are unable to buy altcoins directly before they get onto major exchanges/apps. If you are smart, then you have the ability to buy altcoins directly (or get them for free during air drops) right after they are first available, but before they are on the apps that the masses buy from. Then you have the chance to sell during the increase that is common once the altcoin is offered on a major exchange. In addition, sometimes you will get windfalls due to social media promotion by others once the coin gets to the main exchange.

[Slevin]

@mathiverse, okay that makes a lot more sense, thanks.

So its more of an arbitrage trade, where:

* people are feeling better about the economy because the FED said rates go down
* when people feel good about the economy, they buy more speculative investments
* crypto is a speculative investment
* when people buy crypto as a speculative investment, most buy it from large exchanges
* Thus, if you buy the right coins before they hit the exchanges, you can hit the premium from them getting listed on the large exchanges.

Which would lead me to the question, whats the ratio of altcoins that end up publicly listed on large exchanges? And this is where you are caring about the meme coins, because meme's have some sort of recognition factor, so they are more likely to be recognized by those choosing the coins that go onto the apps? Or is it more, all altcoins eventually make it onto the exchanges, but memes get bought by the masses, so meme coins get the bump when they hit the large exchanges, whereas others don't?

[giskard]

I think the theory is that people are dumb, so they are unable to buy altcoins directly before they get onto major exchanges/apps. If you are smart, then you have the ability to buy altcoins directly (or get them for free during air drops) right after they are first available, but before they are on the apps that the masses buy from.

You are right - I will clarify:

100% of the new meme coins originate onchain only before being listed on major exchanges. E.g. BONK was an SLP-20 token that was around for a year. It gained a lot of momentum in the Solana community, large protocols integrated it and promoted. 100% clear its a blue chip, but you can only get it on a DEX.

As soon as it gets listed on major on major CEXs (in this case Coinbase) huge outside buying volume comes in. Now it's on all the asian exchanges as well, which is the place that really matters now imo.

[giskard]

Which would lead me to the question, whats the ratio of altcoins that end up publicly listed on large exchanges? And this is where you are caring about the meme coins, because meme's have some sort of recognition factor, so they are more likely to be recognized by those choosing the coins that go onto the apps? Or is it more, all altcoins eventually make it onto the exchanges, but memes get bought by the masses, so meme coins get the bump when they hit the large exchanges, whereas others don't?

It's small, most of them die. But imo it's very clear which ones will get uplisted. Usually they:
- have some staying power over several months
- have a strong social media following / cult like behavior
- reach at least 500 million mk cap on chain.
- has some strong group or person actively promoting it in some way.
- is "cheap" less than a dollar preferably (this serves many purposes I might elaborate more on later).

Meme coins have no fundamentals so they can run incredibly high, instead of fundamental analysis you are conducting social analysis.

[giskard]

* people are feeling better about the economy because the FED said rates go down
* when people feel good about the economy, they buy more speculative investments
* crypto is a speculative investment

I want to respond to this set of statements as well.

IMO people (the masses) are not feeling good about the economy. People misunderstand inflation and think that prices will come back down. That's deflation and it's not going to happen so people are still upset. Even though price increases are moderating they are unhappy with the price levels.

It's in my opinion that it is of no importance what the masses feel about the economy. It might even be good if they feel like the pinch of inflation is hurting them. Maybe they will try to get rich quick gambling on a bubble.

They will see a bubble forming in crypto and they will hop in. It's reflexive, nothing will keep people away from a bubble like that.

These bubbles are hardly localized to America either, crypto is bigger is Asia. Bitcoin is currently trading at a premium again on both Korean and Vietnamese exchanges.

Bloomberg article - WON is now biggest trading pair against bitcoin: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ring-rally

[giskard]

2023 summary

Ending NW: 1.63 million
Change in NW: +59% --> compare to QQQ which did 54% in 2023.

Compared, previously:
2022 ending NW: 1.02 million
2022 Change in NW: -34% (oof - buying & holding through the dips lol)

2021 ending NW: 1.56 million
2021 change in NW: +41%

2020 ending NW: 1.1 million
2020 change in NW: +65%

2019 ending NW: 670k
2019 change in NW: +54%

Reflections

As you can see, I experienced a large rebound the most recent year.

In the years 2018-2021 I was a highly paid software contractor. Now I am CTO of a small startup taking a meager salary. I save much less than I used to. At least I have health insurance, but I'm not really accumulating much.

Primarily, I do buy and hold investing at the far end of the risk curve. Tech equity, speculative resource related equity, and cryptocurrencies / crytpo adjacent businesses. My investment returns look pretty similar to QQQ generally speaking.

I don't include any of the equity I own in private companies (including my own) but it would probably change these numbers substantially. However I tend to consider this worthless until the potential of a liquidity event draws near... which it is not happening anytime soon.

Next year

My focus for next year is:
- focus on the business, either double down or extricate myself from it and move on.
- spend more time traveling, especially in Asia and potentially consider life abroad.
- reduce expenses in the US.
- continue investing in a similar manner as before.

One of my main goals is to find a new place to live and a community to orient my future around. I'm not certain where that is or what it will be but I consider 2023 as a year of recovery from a great loss, and I hope that 2024 can be a year of growth and focus.

The journey continues.

[mathiverse]

What websites and social media accounts do you follow to get ideas about what altcoins might be worth flipping?