Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

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zbigi
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by zbigi »

Can someone explain to me why America does have a giant problem with police and/or police perception, while none of the other developed countries do? Is it the decentralization?
Here in Poland, police is a central government responsibility and local authorities have nothing to do with it (the cities are welcome to offer suggestions, but ultimately the police commissioner answers to his boss in Warsaw, not to the mayor). So, is it the incompetence brought by keeping things on a local level? Or is it something else?

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Some would say the police are trigger happy because of citizens carrying firearms but in New Hampshire we have constitutional carry (open carry legal without a permit, concealed carry legal without a permit, gun purchases legal without a permit) with one of the lowest violent crime rates in the country, so it must be something else.

sky
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by sky »

The USA is a relatively violent place, with hotspots of violence and some not so violent areas. The people do not have much respect for authority and many do not follow the laws. Because firearms and especially handguns are available legally and illegally, the police have to assume that every person they confront is armed. Some police training tends to focus on saving/defending the officer's life in every case which sounds good until you realize the training essentially teaches to shoot at first suspicion of threat to the officer's life, and shoot means three shots to the chest to kill. The officers are always looking for anything that might be a threat to them, and anything that "frightens" them becomes a target. One wrong move and the target is dead.

I would disagree with the statement "none of the other developed countries do (have problems with police perception)". I would counter that during times of civil disorder, most countries have problems with police perception.

white belt
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by white belt »

The USA also has the highest incarceration rate in the world in part because it has waged a “War on Drugs” for decades, which really is just a code for “war on those with lower socioeconomic status” (e.g. take a look at the discrepancy in penalties for crack vs cocaine that existed for many years). A lifetime of dealing with this tends to sour many people towards police encounters.

macg
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by macg »

In my opinion, the fundamental issue is the police have been militarized. Money has been funnelled into local police from the federal level, with the caveat that they have to spend it on (what normal citizens would call) military hardware. This started at least during the afore-mentioned "war on drugs" (Nixon/Reagan), if not before, but seriously ramped up post-9/11.

There are other underlying issues. Education/training - barely happens; Systemic issues, such as systemic racism, makes it so that even good cops in bad departments can't do anything, and the bad cops get away with everything.

The situation now - protests, push to move funding from police back into social worker-type areas, etc - is a result of all these factors that have been going on for generations, and never getting better.

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

Nov 2021 Update

It's been a bit of a whirlwind in my life since I last updated here. Basically: I moved back home and joined a funded startup as a founder. I am super relieved and way less stressed to be out of Minneapolis. I don't think about getting car-jacked every day any more. But I'm also busier than ever and I took a pretty big pay cut to join this startup (although, that's kinda the deal the equity stake is what matters).

I don't have a permanent living situation now. I'm living with family and working out of co-working spaces and wherever I can. I was going to buy something small and out of the city but that's probably going to be delayed now since my income is going to be spotty for a little while while we finish raising more money from investors. I guess I could try to get an apartment here? I don't really want to though. I guess I could also buy cash? Again, not my ideal choice.

Oct 2021 summary

- Ending NW: 1.7million
- M/m change: +222k
- Spending: 7k+
- Wage income: 9k

Sept 2021 Summary

- Ending NW: 1.49 million
- M/m change: -63k
- Spending: 4k+
- Wage income: 9k

As you can see my wage income is pretty insignificant compared to my wild swings in net worth due to investments (lol crypto). I'm happy to have it though because it covers my daily living expenses & provides me with health insurance and stuff.

My spending was higher than normal because among other things I bought some guns. I used to never really think I would own guns because I didn't need them. My how times have changed.

So anyway, I'm super excited that I'm doing this startup now. I feel alive again. It's hard to feel very into a regular job when the money doesn't even matter to you, but this feels different. It feels like I'm in control of my life again a little bit.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

So are you a Glocktard now like everyone else?

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:22 am
So are you a Glocktard now like everyone else?
Heh, no I haven't gotten a 9mm sidearm yet. I got some rifles to get comfortable with and a .22 pistol for practice. I'm thinking about a Ruger Security 9 but not sure yet. I'm trying to decide on if it makes more sense to get a compact or something more full size. I got really into researching stuff and now I already have 3 guns and I'm finding it's really fun to spend time going to the range :lol:

detect_148
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by detect_148 »

Sorry to hear about the troubles you had in Minneapolis, I'm glad you made it out safely. I've been largely ignoring current events to minimize stress, but I find it valuable to hear a personal testimony about what is going on in other parts of the country with respect to these particular issues.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Ruger LCP Max .380 Auto 10+1

Consider .45ACP/10mm >= 9x19mm

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

Update May 2022

I've been busy working on a startup, we are funded by VCs, raised money, etc. I think it's going to be hard to write about this stuff now because it's sensitive and it's also weird to explain. The shares I have as a founder in this company are either worth nothing or millions (already) based on current valuations. I'll just say it's an advertising company, but know I'm a programmer and it's in tech.

The outcome of this company will either dwarf my net worth I've already accumulated or it will not have much affect since I am not saving much now and just taking a big enough salary to pay my living expenses with little left over. If for some reason the company fails, it will probably end in an aqui-hire which doesn't usually have a great financial outcome. I'm having fun, learning a lot, and getting to do something I always wanted to do though! Anyway, it's going to take several years to play this out so that's kinda what I'm up to these days.

Mostly the prices of equity markets have impacted my net worth but I've honestly been to busy to pay much attention. I'm in a huge drawdown to 1.2 million last time I really looked at it all.

I will say that the public markets being down is starting to impact startup valuations but our company is so early stage it's definitely the least worse off spot to be of these and we already have revenue & a fair bit of traction. It seems like the bigger companies that are at series C / series D looking for massive $50 million checks are having more trouble that little seed stage companies taking $1 million checks.

As far as I can tell it's still really really difficult to hire experienced engineers that are willing to work hard and are good at problem solving. I can't afford to pay the salaries of a lot of my friends with 10 years of experience. I don't see the job market for engineers changing anytime soon, there is so much dead weight at the big companies in my experience so the layoffs will hopefully be among the un-productive employees with meme job titles (assistant product manager - lol).

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

June 2022 Summary

Another month another terrible update on the net worth chart. I'm at a 41% drawdown in networth from this time last year, basically I've had a six figure drawdown almost every month since November 2021 where it peaked out at 1.8 million. Down to about 1.02 million now.

It's not bothering me a ton though because I figured I did the best I could in allocation in expectation of this market action - meaning that yes I knew holding on a bunch of tech stocks and crypto through an interest rate increase cycle was going to hurt but I also sold every single bond I owned & I bought commodity related equities well in advance. I was holding a fair amount of cash and I've been buying some choice tech stocks that are in 70% + drawdowns.

In reality this hurts more than I thought I was going to. I was expecting risk assets to sell off hard while the fed tightens. I was expecting crypto to go down. I didn't expect sub 20k bitcoin, I think the level of contagion between lenders that are failing in the crypto market is unexpected. But personally I am (mostly) unaffected - not your keys not your coins and I keep 95% of mine on hardware wallets. Yeah the drawdowns suck but I didnt get rugpulled aside from a few LUNA tokens I was speculating in.

It definitely seems like things are starting to come to a head in the financial markets. Based on the the GDP forecasts we are more than likely going to have 2 quarters of negative GDP in about a month here when numbers are officially released (the definition of a recession). The DXY is at very high levels, debt markets have sold off swiftly, housing market is stalling out, and other countries around the world are feeling a lot of pain from the feds actions.

I think something important will break soon. The kind of insane contagion and collapses we are seeing in the crypto markets (Terra, Celcius, Three Arrows, the BlockFi bailout) are to me a preview of failures we will start seeing in the fiat financial markets. Crypto seems to lead the other markets by a few months and it seems like in the crypto markets there have been so many collosal failures maybe we will see a few more but it's probably done for the most part.

It definitely does NOT feel like we are at the bottom when it comes to equities. I don't see total panic yet, and SP500 is barely sold off at all imo. Yes the high flyer tech stocks are down bad, but I want to see SPY get closer to the lows of the corona crash of 2020. Maybe not that low but like, idk closer to 300 on SPY. We are going to need to see some large public failures and financial contagion before the fed reverses course. And then when they do.... look out.

A lot of people are speculating on the fed doing something to pump the markets before the mid term elections. I can see that happening, we have a couple more months here to go down and then they pump a month or two before hand. I actually thinks it's more likely the Democrats do some stunt like forgiving student loans in late October because it will be easier to pull off and drive more young voters. Whatever they do there will probably be more free shit dangled out to the public. Maybe a combination of things happen. The biggest question to me is what happens after the midterms between then and the next presidential election. It just feels like any wild range of outcomes is possible but the easiest path will still be to print & inflate once they get inflation to stall a little bit.
Last edited by giskard on Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

zbigi
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by zbigi »

Regarding panic in SP500 - can someone elaborate on why they think SP500 should go much lower than today? I.e. why people who own these stocks should now just start selling them at major discount, instead of holding them? They still provide a 5% return (P/E 20), which, in current world, does not sound terrible? People often hold to overpriced real eastate (in hope that it bounces back) instead of selling it at a loss, why stocks would be different?

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

zbigi wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:15 am
Regarding panic in SP500 - can someone elaborate on why they think SP500 should go much lower than today? I.e. why people who own these stocks should now just start selling them at major discount, instead of holding them? They still provide a 5% return (P/E 20), which, in current world, does not sound terrible? People often hold to overpriced real eastate (in hope that it bounces back) instead of selling it at a loss, why stocks would be different?
I'd love to hear others weigh in on it, but to me it just feels like we have not hit a true panic & capitulation yet and usually these trends seem to continue in one direction until that happens and there is a shift.

Also what good is a 5% return with 8% (maybe higher) inflation? I think stocks need to get a lot cheaper to be valued correctly unless inflation swiftly abates.

ertyu
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by ertyu »

@giskard and @zbigi :

I follow a bunch of investment podcasts and there are two main arguments why the market will go lower:

argument 1, we've had a multiple compression but we're not yet in an earnings recession. the tightening by the fed will hit the real economy, and combined w demand destruction from inflation, will lead to a drop in demand and thus to a drop in profits. a second leg down for stock prices is coming.

argument 2 is, the fed will continue tightening because they have no reason not to. inflation numbers are still high and the labor market is still tight. In a situation where inflation is high and the labor market is tight, according to the dual mandate, you take care of inflation until you have a "but": but the qt/rate hikes are causing credit markets to lock up, or causing a housing market crash (most analysts consider this to be unlikely) or cause unemployment to go too high. the market moves on liquidity. liquidity will continue to be withdrawn until such a time that some other trashfire elsewhere is a bigger priority.

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

ertyu wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:33 pm

argument 2 is, the fed will continue tightening because they have no reason not to. inflation numbers are still high and the labor market is still tight. In a situation where inflation is high and the labor market is tight, according to the dual mandate, you take care of inflation until you have a "but": but the qt/rate hikes are causing credit markets to lock up, or causing a housing market crash (most analysts consider this to be unlikely) or cause unemployment to go too high. the market moves on liquidity. liquidity will continue to be withdrawn until such a time that some other trashfire elsewhere is a bigger priority.
In order of likelihood which happens first imo:

- credit markets lock up
- unemployment starts to spike
- housing market crash

Another option:

- people start flipping shit over their retirement savings evaporating / we have a pension fund crisis / political pressure that necessitates fed policy change.

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

Official Jan 2023 update

Been 6 months since I updated this journal. It's a been a wild ride to be honest. The startup I'm a co-founder of raised a big seed round over the summer, and we are starting to get a lot of press and customers and I'm busier than ever. The future looks good if we don't screw it up.

Personally though, I just lost someone I was profoundly close to after a long battle with health issues and subsequent addiction in the aftermath of many surgeries.

I would give up a lot for her to be alive again and be the person she was 5 years ago. It's hard to feel like any of the stuff with money and business matters after losing the person you were closest with in the entire world.

There isn't any part of me that wishes I never met her and could have saved myself from the pain. All the pain was worth it and I would do it again. In some people you see them close off in grief, but for me it feels like my heart is even more open than before.

What's next

I would consider myself financially independent now if I wanted to be (cut some expenses and changed lifestyle). At this point my journal is documenting my life after reaching FI. I have taken many more risks over the past several years and my life is now different. I doubt I will want to ever work a job again. I would probably just try to raise money for another startup or do some kind of consulting if things went south with the business.

I just like to build stuff and now that I feel like I reached the FI goal I am just focusing on that. I am not bored like I was working a job. I should have honestly never worked more than a few years and done this path way earlier. I don't think about money much these days, I just think about building the business.

But after this personal loss I also want to make a big point to focus on friends family and human connection. You never know when you are going to lose someone and once you do you want to cherish all the time you have with everyone left.

I like to travel but it always felt empty and vacuous to me. I get more meaning out of reading a thought provoking book, learning about history or discovering a piece from Brahms I never encountered before. But at some point in the next couple years I want to spend an extended amount of time traveling and I want to experience actual different cultures not just pretty sights and tasty food.

Stats

Net worth is still about 1.1 million. Hasn't changed much in the last 6 months since my tech stock exposure was offset by my natural resource exposure. Taking a salary now of about 120k / yr and that's plenty to live off of and save a bit. We have 10 employees now and 2ish years of runway.

If we exit from the startup it will dwarf off all of these numbers so I am pretty focused on that. I forget to update my finances spreadsheet months in a row sometimes now.

sky
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by sky »

Its good to hear you are doing well and great that you found a passion that may pay off in the future.

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

June 2023 update

Hmm what to say... I am focusing on myself a bit and trying and learning a lot of new things. Eating mushrooms & lifting weights, experimenting with nootropics, upgrading my wardrobe etc.

One thing I really started to think about is where I want to be the next 3-5 years and what I want to be doing. I'm going to turn 34 this year and time is running out on various things. I did decide on 2 things:

- I want to spend a lot of time in SE Asia and focus on enjoying life more and having new experiences
- I want to find a wife and have some kids. I do want to have a kid in 3-5 years.

Additionally the startup business is not doing well so we are thinking about doing a pivot. I think in terms of the business I would like to do the following things:

- get to some point where its cash flowing
- OR wind it down completely and get out of it (and just go back to contracting)
- OR sell it after its going well

NW was at 1.2 million last time I checked. I don't really pay attention anymore, I just rotate things around a little bit and DCA into things I'm interested in.

Part of the SE Asia thing means I need to try to think about how I'm going to extricate myself from the US. I'm not sure but I think I will keep a house here, I think I will have one toe in one toe out for a while. It's going to change based on the wife thing maybe but idk.

Weird update, but I guess that's it! I'm very grateful to have done the ERE thing now bc I could theoretically just go to Vietnam and retire in high luxury right now. Not in the cards though, my ambition is getting the better of me with the startup stuff.

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giskard
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Re: Giskard's Journal - slingin code to reach FI

Post by giskard »

Update Sep 2023

Not any real changes in finances etc, since last update.

I have been continuing to gear up for some traveling in Asia. Getting various gear, doing research on places to go, learning about cultures, languages & history, getting various vaccines I need.

Thinking about how to simplify my life a bit stateside so I can spend more time traveling. This is going to be a long project I suppose, trying to get rid of the condo now. Thinking about if it makes sense to still keep my house or downside in some way (how? rents are insanely expensive, only thing I could really downside to is a storage unit and I'm not ready for that yet).

Anyway, life goes. Working on the startup, etc.

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