Taleb's New Skin In The Game Paper

[Ego]

Granted, we can be nincompoops, but saying that the average medieval person or the average medieval philosopher had a better grasp on metaphysics than the average person or philosopher today is.... a suspect claim.

[secretwealth]

@CS: Yes, I agree--I think Taleb's venom about academia (much like Soros's own quiet angst at not being a philosopher) have a lot to do with insecurity and jealousy. It's fascinating that billionaires envy the prestige of an Ivy League or Oxbridge chair, which are more likely to be gotten through an accident of birth than is a billion dollars.

[Chad]

@CS: Yes, I agree--I think Taleb's venom about academia (much like Soros's own quiet angst at not being a philosopher) have a lot to do with insecurity and jealousy. It's fascinating that billionaires envy the prestige of an Ivy League or Oxbridge chair, which are more likely to be gotten through an accident of birth than is a billion dollars.

Actually, I would bet statistically, it's easier to get a billion dollars. What are there? Twenty extreme top tier universities in the world? And, of those only a handful have the "old knowledge" feel and super notoriety. So, we have 4-5 universities and a handful of chairs at each university, but 1,324 billionaires per Forbes. Plus, probably at least another couple hundred they don't know about (I would bet it's more).

http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/#pag ... l%20states

For me, the odd part is that Taleb advocates at least some form of libertarianism, but seems oddly fixated on positions he claims aren't earned through worthwhile means. This is not a comment on libertarianism, but a comment on Taleb.

Another thing that bothers me about him is that he seems to prefer "old" to "new." Not that there aren't good things that are old or quality wisdom from ancient people and civilizations, but in the first half of Anti-Fragile I don't think he has said one good thing about anything that is new. I know we have problems, but so has every era in human history. There has to be something good that's new.

I know I'm bitching a lot about Taleb, but I actually do like Anti-Fragile, so far.

[secretwealth]

Do those 20 extreme top tier universities have 66 tenured faculty across all disciplines? I'd assume there are more.

[Ego]

Another thing that bothers me about him is that he seems to prefer "old" to "new." Not that there aren't good things that are old or quality wisdom from ancient people and civilizations, but in the first half of Anti-Fragile I don't think he has said one good thing about anything that is new. I know we have problems, but so has every era in human history. There has to be something good that's new.

One of his points is that there is an inherent strength in something that has been tested and refined over time and conversely there is more likely to be potential unforeseen weakness in the new. The ruthless refinement of evolution, for instance, or the adaptive fluidity of city-state powers.

Seeing that he is the grandchild and child of the ruling elite I've wondered if he isn't openly embracing the Marx-opiate for its time-tested control elements.

[Chad]

Another thing that bothers me about him is that he seems to prefer "old" to "new." Not that there aren't good things that are old or quality wisdom from ancient people and civilizations, but in the first half of Anti-Fragile I don't think he has said one good thing about anything that is new. I know we have problems, but so has every era in human history. There has to be something good that's new.

One of his points is that there is an inherent strength in something that has been tested and refined over time and conversely there is more likely to be potential unforeseen weakness in the new. The ruthless refinement of evolution, for instance, or the adaptive fluidity of city-state powers.

Seeing that he is the grandchild and child of the ruling elite I've wondered if he isn't openly embracing the Marx-opiate for its time-tested control elements.

That's interesting. I didn't know that. It is probably a major influence.

I was attributing a lot of it to the ancientness of where he is from. He actually thinks Beirut is good example of an anti-fragile city. I guess it has survived, but it hasn't even made it back to the level it was in the early part of the last century.

He is also infatuated with the Levant and Aleppo. Not that the area isn't interesting or important in history, but it's not quite as impressive as he makes it out to be.

[JasonR]

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[CS]

@CS: Yes, I agree--I think Taleb's venom about academia (much like Soros's own quiet angst at not being a philosopher) have a lot to do with insecurity and jealousy. It's fascinating that billionaires envy the prestige of an Ivy League or Oxbridge chair, which are more likely to be gotten through an accident of birth than is a billion dollars.

SW, haha, that is exactly the opposite of what I meant. I don't think Taleb is jealous or insecure from what I have read. Not in the least.

From what I have read about places like Harvard, the people that come out are shockingly uniform, at least for the Businessman/CEO groomed people. They want extroverts that do A, B and C. And only A, B, and C. And they hire people who do A, B and C. So Taleb's independent thinking is a breath of fresh air. That it happens to run contrary to what is being pushed is perhaps why he is getting push back. It sounds like he is getting quite a few threats

I have seen people criticize school for no other reason than they are sick of not getting same respect because they did not go to school. They have some valid points, but that is the jealousy I had meant.

[secretwealth]

One of his points is that there is an inherent strength in something that has been tested and refined over time and conversely there is more likely to be potential unforeseen weakness in the new.

Seriously, I say this with zero snark: can anyone explain to me how this isn't completely fucking obvious?

[jacob]

One of his points is that there is an inherent strength in something that has been tested and refined over time and conversely there is more likely to be potential unforeseen weakness in the new.

Seriously, I say this with zero snark: can anyone explain to me how this isn't completely fucking obvious?

Obviously, because "new is always better", otherwise "they" wouldn't have invented it.

Also see, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neophile

[Ego]

One of his points is that there is an inherent strength in something that has been tested and refined over time and conversely there is more likely to be potential unforeseen weakness in the new.

Seriously, I say this with zero snark: can anyone explain to me how this isn't completely fucking obvious?

It can be obscured by the money to be made from the new while there is little or no money in the old. Voices proclaiming the value in new things are amplified by that money while those exulting the values of the old are drowned out. There are times when new is indeed better so the choice between new and old is not obvious to the amateur. In many domains those who are experts are drowned out by the salespeople.

[jennypenny]

One of his points is that there is an inherent strength in something that has been tested and refined over time and conversely there is more likely to be potential unforeseen weakness in the new.

Seriously, I say this with zero snark: can anyone explain to me how this isn't completely fucking obvious?

It's not just the message, but the messenger. He's engaging and enthusiastic, and his steadfast conviction in his own ideas (whether new or not) is persuasive.

I love the comparison with Munger. They are complete opposites. Munger. considers. each. word. he. utters. They take the same amount of time to get an idea across, but Munger uses 15 words and Taleb uses 150.

[Chad]

and Taleb uses 150.

Which completely goes against his support of simple over complex and annoys the hell out of me. I will take Munger.

[Felix]

Taleb is the Slavoj Zizek of finance.

[secretwealth]

Let me rephrase my question: What has Taleb taught you that no one else ever did and that you didn't already know?

[Chad]

Nothing. He just shinned a brighter spotlight on it, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

[secretwealth]

Is it possible your reaction to Taleb is much akin to ideological extremists reading like-minded bloggers: A confirmation of bias that is emotionally gratifying?

(I don't mean this as an attack on any single person--Jacob's post about the consumerist emphasis on the new brings me to this conclusion, as well as some other comments in this thread and others about Taleb.)

[jennypenny]

Let me rephrase my question: What has Taleb taught you that no one else ever did and that you didn't already know?

I've completely changed how I manage my portfolio. It's mostly because of Taleb and a few other authors suggested here over the last couple of years (McGinn, Klarman, Mandelbrot, Kahneman). I take a lot more risk on some investments, and take a lot less risk on most of my investments. I'm also much better at assessing risk v. volitility v. fragility (to use his term). So far, the change has been very positive.

Maybe I'm just more of a noob than most of you.

[secretwealth]

Taleb hardly invented barbell portfolios!

[Ego]

Let me rephrase my question: What has Taleb taught you that no one else ever did and that you didn't already know?

That's a great question. I find the idea of Antifragility very appealing. Before reading Black Swan it had never occurred to me that there was a level above and beyond resilience even though I knew that much of the natural world, including my mind and body, actually requires periodic abuse to improve. One thing I knew for sure was that I felt alive when I was struggling. I also knew that I was constantly tempted to take the easy road, move toward safety, make my life more secure and avoid struggling. I consider myself lucky that I am tempted in both directions. I believe that most of us are being surrounded (suffocated?) by encouragements toward ease, security, and safety, and away from discomfort. Take the blue pill. Create the impenetrable safety net. Avoid hardship.

Taleb has certainly taught me quite a few things (iatrogenics & hormesis to name a few). He's also prompted me to learn more about some subjects. Most importantly, he has prompted me to think about some aspects of life differently. I guess that's the ultimate goal of a philosopher. I now make a conscious effort to try and embrace the difficult times a little more. I find that when things go wrong I'm constantly on the lookout for the antifragile strength to be gained from it.

Silver linings are not always there, but when I look for something I am less likely to miss it if it is there. Taleb made me look for it in areas I wouldn't have thought to do so.