Generation-X' Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
Generation-X
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

ERE begins with retirement


For most people, not much changes in retirement. Unless you are part of the Donald Trumpers (1% of the US population) with at least 10 million dollars lying around (2016*), for most us, retirement simply means trading job for time, with a significant cut in income.

A reduction in standard of living inevitably follows a cut in income. Therefore, for the 99% of the population, the decision to retire must be a careful balancing act, weighed between time and the standard of living.

Time is a formidable enemy. After digging through the financial reports, I now fully grasp the true destructive power of inflation over time, especially spanning over decades.

Our lifetime savings, whatever it maybe at the time of retirement, must be able to provide each and every monthly paycheck, until we expire.

If compounding interest can make millions over decades, then the reverse must also hold true, with compounding inflation destroying millions.

ERE really begins with retirement. Because it is necessary for survival.

Whether they realize this or not, this is what faces the 99% of the population.

Generation-X
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual.
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" -- (George Santayana) viewtopic.php?p=202265#p202265

The Roehm affair, with the state openly engaged in mass murder, with the connivance of its old military elite and the endorsement of the electorate, directly foreshadowed the extermination programmes to come.

It was the sheer audacity of the Roehm purge, and the way in which Hitler got away with it, with German and world opinion and with his own colleagues and followers, which encouraged Stalin to consolidate his personal dictatorship by similar means.


Dictator for life': Xi Jinping's power grab condemned as step towards tyranny 2/26/18 [CHINA]
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... r-for-life)

Vladimir Putin just staged a constitutional coup. How will Russians react? 1/17/20 [RUSSIA]
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ans-react/)

McConnell fundraises off impeachment, says effort will fail 'with me as majority leader' 1/16/20 {US}
(https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 881997002/)


[ President for life "Maybe we'll have to give that a shot someday" https://youtu.be/09ZCJnf-qMw?t=41 ]
[ "I am the chosen one" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js4wcaPqSow ]
[ "I am your voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehvUQrRDyyU ]
[ "I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God has ever created, remember that" https://youtu.be/mzbzZwMzU38?t=15 ]
[ "nobody knows more about < insert subject > better than I do" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GqJna9hpTE ]


It is fascinating and yet, terrifying to watch history repeat itself. The difference is, I am now a part of it, instead of watching some documentary about a devastating world event that happened a long time ago.

I have no doubt that people 80 years ago weren't any different from people today, with similar hopes, greed and fear. Most were probably just like us, too busy to pay much attention to anything else other than going about their daily lives, going with the flow. What gave August Landmesser the courage that the masses didn't have? (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... a-1936.jpg)

If the world makes through this one, then I hope that people decades from now will learn from our mistakes - and have the courage that we lacked.

Otherwise, So long, and thanks for all the fish.

Image

Generation-X
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

business continuity / employer insolvency (Income - more thoughts)


On financial incentives to continue working


IMHO, the 3 legged stool model for traditional retirement works very well.

In the model, the normal working income is replaced with three smaller income sources in retirement - the pension, social security and savings.

When it comes to timing the retirement, it is a rather difficult decision because there is a strong financial incentives to continue working.

Starting this year, for each year delayed, I can increase the retirement net worth by about 250k/yr, through additional savings and increased pension. This does not account for social security and other incentives.

It adds up to a fairly significant sum and can mean the difference between "barely getting by" versus "being adequate" in later years, when I wouldn't be able to work even if I wanted to. (Yes, those years WILL come)



On pension and social security


I have spent a good deal of time analyzing the pension and the social security and I now have a decent ballpark estimate as to when the possible funding risks associated with the pension and the social security will occur.

The risk in both the pension and the social security were not as dire as the hype that plutocracy driven mass media made them out to be.

This is because both are annuities and the accrued liabilities are not payable on-demand in one lump sum. What's more important is the cashflow. What's being hyped, is the misinformation and the politics.

This much hyped social security insolvency is so "dire" that if the current social security paycheck withholdings were to be raised by 1.5%, then the social security will be fully funded for the next 75 years.

Better yet, by altering the social security withholdings from "pseudo" flat rate to true flat rate, the social security program can continue indefinitely.

The current "pseudo" flat rate exempts the ultra rich from social security withholdings by not taxing them on earnings over $137,700 (2020).

While 97% of the population fully contributes into the system with all of their earnings, the ultra rich 3% only partially contributes into the system with some of their earnings. Why?

Don't the plutocracy and their party of special interest advocate flat rate? Perhaps it is the "pseudo" flat rate that they genuinely love.

This is where misinformation and the hype about social security insolvency and the politics begin. (I'm guessing they want to have the cake and eat it too.)



When it comes to the pension, they have already begun addressing the cashflow issue with benefit changes and the tires will meet the road in about 12-15 years. At that time, the pension income will match the expense.

This provides ample time to recover the cost of pension (bird in the hand) and the worst case expectation is that pension will continue, albeit in a somewhat reduced form.



There are risks. To hedge, I can build addtional savings in the next few years that will allow investing into rental income (housing) and real income (chickens and the vegetable garden). In addition, market investments will be maintained on the side.

Particularly in California, the housing investment makes sense as the foreclosure protection shields other assets. In addition, there is the primary residence exclusion.

By working few years longer, I will be aiming to acquire housing with minimal mortgage to induce positive cashflow in rental income while looking to benefit from primary residence exclusion.

Included in the calculation is the expectation that the housing market will fall along with the stock market while I build savings in the next several years.



This should complete the income planning:

Social Security
I-Bonds/TIPS - i.e. inflation protected CASH generating interest
Job-Pension pair
A House/Rental Income
The Stock Market
A Real/tangible income generating assets (a vegetable garden, chickens that lay eggs etc.)

Generation-X
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Healthcare


Until Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law in 2010, the way most people acquired and maintained healthcare coverage in life was to have a job and work until Medicare at age 65.

ACA changed this in 2010. In fact, ACA perfectly suited ERE because the cost of healthcare was entirely based on income and not on net worth.

If one could adjust to a reduced standard of living of no frills essentials, not only would the required savings needed to sustain life be less, it also opened the door to having a real healthcare coverage for life.

This was a trifecta. It finally provided an option of early retirement for the masses, especially for those who were willing to sacrifice material wealth over freedom - something that only the rich could afford to do before.

That is until Trump came along and became a boon to the Republicans, especially McConnell and Graham, the party of special interest working hard for the oligarchy hell bent on eliminating the so called "entitlement programs" - Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Social Security and Medicare.


Trump's Second-Term Plan For Social Security: Starve The Beast
https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghil ... dd2a237949
Image

Mitch McConnell
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/ ... l-security
https://www.newsweek.com/deficit-budget ... nt-1172941
Image

Lindsay Graham:
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/15/what-il ... ntary.html (I usually refrain, but I must say this - imo Lindsay is full of it)
https://crooksandliars.com/2019/07/lind ... l-security
Image


These social safety net were the result of the harsh lessons we learned after paying for the consequences of the Great Depression with much hardship and suffering.

Those who were there, lived and bled through it, enacted many safeguards in hopes of protecting their children and the future generation from having to go through what they just went through.

Call it an "entitlement program" if you will, but that's an easy pill to swallow for those with millions and billions of dollars in the bank.

Donald Trump - 3 Billion (https://www.forbes.com/donald-trump/#174723b82899)
Mitch McConnell - 22.5 Million (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_McConnell)
Lindsay Graham - 5 Million (https://www.wealthypersons.com/lindsey- ... 2020-2021/ -- a note worthy public comments section)

Why should the rest of the country, allow these 1% ultra rich politicians to alter the course of our nation and change the social safety net that our great grand parents set forth, in hopes of preserving their children's future, and paid-for with their blood?

For whose prosperity, security and well being are these cuts for?
(As the rich get richer, more workers are serving their needs: https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/20 ... story.html)

IMHO, this is a question for every generation.

Because freedom is something that everyone aspires to, not just the rich 1% - and even to those who aspire to ERE.

"Live Free or Die", indeed.
Last edited by Generation-X on Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

ertyu
Posts: 295
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by ertyu »

my thoughts are with your country man. they're not gonna govern me, i'm not american, but i don't wish this shit on anyone

Generation-X
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Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

When I wrote that journal what I had in mind was retirement planning. It was on the front pages today:

'Hobnobbing With Billionaires in Davos,' Trump Admits—If Reelected—He Will Seek to Cut Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/ ... cut-social


The left-right political rift is nothing but a smoke screen. This is what they're clearly after. ;)

(Translation: serve us, until you drop)

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Lemur
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Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Lemur »

@Generation-X

Really hoping this is the year that Americans can wake up and vote out a pathological liar....
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/sta ... 44?lang=en

I'm embarrassed that this is the leader of our country. Literally plunging us into fascism, authoritarianism, and undermining Democracy on a day-to-day basis. History sure does repeat itself.

Anyhow....looking ahead. Politics is one of the most complicated subjects I've ever studied. At least in my case, I am always conflicted not between left vs right or socioeconomic class warfare, but between idealism and pragmatism. Real institutional change needs an idealist vision but often doesn't lead to real-world results in the legislature. For instance, Bernie...I like his vision but practically I cannot see him getting anything done in Congress. Andrew Yang is a favorite but likely doesn't stand a chance. Amy Klobuchar actually seems like the most practical choice and doesn't have any sort of baggage that I am aware of. I hold neutral opinions on the rest of the candidates though Biden seems off to me (which my views here are is in-line with similar demographics...I wonder why).

What are your thoughts when you're looking at potential US candidates or even your local politicians? Do you have a favorite candidate at this time?

Generation-X
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Couldn't agree with you more. "Don’t steal, don’t lie and don’t cheat. Republicans hate competition." :shock: LOL, Ok seriously..

Leaders make all the difference, in most situations that involve many people. (One can relate I'm sure, at work etc. :roll:)

We are fortunate that we can choose a few and try them out for a while in our lifetime.

Probably a good indicator of a person is to go by their character ("the mental and moral qualities distinctive to an individual") and personal values (for example, Shackleton's - optimism, patience, idealism, courage and "By endurance, we conquer") because while people change, these change slowly.

Ladies can probably better relate but imagine if you are being wooed by multiple potential suitors. How do you pick a good one? :D

Their background (family, religion, life experiences), potential (capabilities), values, personality, respect along with shared partnership and interests probably come to play.

Since choosing a candidate is not unlike speed dating, comparing what they say against what they do should be a good indicator. The bar is so low with the Republicans right now, it's hard to get this wrong, even for a child.

But one must also consider the overall picture as well. What I have noticed over time, given the two-party political system that we have, is that our system tends to work well when there is a separation of power with one party taking over the Congress and the other the Executive, minimizing collusion.

Because then, they tend to dialogue and come up with a compromise because they have to go home at some point.

What are your thoughts when you're looking at potential US candidates or even your local politicians? Do you have a favorite candidate at this time?
I tend to lean conservative (the true conservatives with morals and decency, not the current ones) politically, especially over finance and tend to lean moderate over social programs because I believe that everyone deserves a second chance, so long as they don't abuse the system and payback what they borrow once they're up again. You don't kick a man that's down.

Life is a balance, and most everything is a compromise. Only the children want things their way.

to be continued

Generation-X
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Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Continued
What are your thoughts when you're looking at potential US candidates or even your local politicians? Do you have a favorite candidate at this time?
It is morally right to provide aid to those in need, but there shouldn't be an expectation that it is for life.

Likewise, it is the society that places the burden of children onto the parents with complete responsibility. Therefore, it makes sense that the society place a similar burden of elderly onto the children, as adults - to make things whole. There shouldn't be an expectation that life is free.

The so called "entitlement programs" of Social Security and Medicare, as coined by these unsophisticated conservatives that are twisting the truth, undermine the intent of these programs to benefit the society as a whole, while establishing fairness. One can only imagine the train wreck in a society that only sought after pleasure and did away with responsibilities.

Unfortunately, the current so called "conservatives" are not only unethical, they are as fake news as Trump himself. I threw my vote away in the last election, but after watching the consequences of my actions, for the first time, I will vote Democrat in the next election.

I can live with Biden. But in earnest, I can live with Warren, Yang or even Sanders.

Given the current economy, I believe it will be a tall order but to me, the country is far more important than any political party - and I'm going to throw my vote away again, but in the right direction this time.

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