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Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:15 pm
by justjohn
Does anyone know of a retirement income calculator that takes into account Social Security?
I'm 55 and was trying to figure out what I would have if I just quit now. I have the SS info claiming about $1400/month at age 62, add $700 to that at age 67 for spouse's SS. But I haven't found a calculator that would break retirement up into three periods and come up with a level monthly income spreading my retirement account over all the time frames.
This is probably just an academic exercise for now, but maybe useful in a few more years. And obviously longevity, inflation and earned interest will drastically affect the numbers.


Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:28 pm
by jennypenny
Try firecalc. I can't remember if it factors in two SS payments though. You could always enter the second SS payment as a pension or annuity as a work-around.


Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:35 pm
by Maus
Do what I do. Open an Excel spreadsheet. Since you're 55, start at row 15 and populate the first column from rows 15 to 21 with $0 (no SS payment until 62). Then populate rows 22 to 50 with the yearly SS benefit (you indicate $16,800 and I am assuming payments until 90 y.o., add or subtract rows based on your own assumption of longevity.)
Now, go back up to row 1 and enter this formula: =NPV(rate, A15:A50). The "rate" is the discount rate. I use the yield on the U.S. 10-YR Note, since this is the closest thing to a guaranteed investment return. Yesterday, that rate was 1.86%. It is available daily on the Yahoo Finances page.
Quick calculation with your numbers and my assumptions shows that the net present value of your anticipated SS benefit at 62 is $328,682.65. You can then apply whatever safe-withdrawal rate you intend to use to this figure to determine how much annual income you can use from you current capital as a proxy for receiving SS at 55. If 3% SWR, then $9,860; if 4%, then $13,147. The draw down from 55-62 will be replenished by the higher dollar payments beginning at 62.


Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 9:45 pm
by justjohn
Thanks to both for the responses!
I had looked at Firecalc last year, seems like it has been enhanced quite a bit since then, even adding exactly what I was looking for. (but I'm still playing around with numbers in it, trying to understand better)
And Maus, I have created the excel file and am getting the same results you suggest.


Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:14 pm
by secretwealth
Wow, a bet on social security bumps my success rate well over 100%, and helps me to retire 6 years earlier. The irony is that I still need to work those 6 years to qualify for SS!


Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:58 am
by Maus
@secretwealth

Yeah, unfortunately the "anticipated SS benefit" bump only works for folks like @justjohn and myself who are really too old to qualify for the "early" in ERE. There was some discussion in the forums about whether it was worthwhile to work a few added years to qualify. If I recall, it takes 40 points, up to 4 a year maximum can be earned, and each point represents a minimum of $1,130 of earned income. So for the typical worker, it takes 10 years of half-time work at minimum wage to establish eligibility.
The benefit is tied to the average monthly income of your highest 35 years; so many EREistas will have $0 years entering into the calculation. Given university, grad school, and my years in the monastery; even though I'm older than 50, I will be relying on wages I earned part-time in high school and a few years of $0 income to arrive at my average monthly index. Personally, I am not inclined to keep working to plump up a benefit that may get reduced by operation of law in the not-to-distant future.