Early Retirement Extreme Forums

OTCW wrote:Currently 2.53%. I pay full price for health insurance right now, so that number would go down if I quit my part time job and my income went down to an amount where I could get a subsidy.

Wow, with a SWR that low I have to ask. Why still work?

2016 - 28%, I'd be broke in just a few years

2Birds1Stone wrote:

OTCW wrote:Currently 2.53%. I pay full price for health insurance right now, so that number would go down if I quit my part time job and my income went down to an amount where I could get a subsidy.

Wow, with a SWR that low I have to ask. Why still work?

I enjoy it (mental challenges, social interaction, being productive), and I get to more or less set my own hours depending on deadlines, which usually aren't that tight, but sometimes can be. I quit my full time job about a year and a half ago, and was approached to do this part time shortly thereafter. Same field, but different work environment.

Small office, so there are only a few people I see all the time, but peripheral interactions with lots of other people (vendors, sub- consultants, clients, contractors, sales reps, etc). My full time was just about the opposite, and I have found that I really am better suited for my part time job environment. The full time job was a grind, but the part time, so far, has not been.

Plus, I enjoy investing, so having new money come in is good. Right now, I am concentrating on diversifying into new areas, and simplifying my existing investments.

bryan wrote: 2011: 85%
2012: 29%
2013: 22%
2014: 18%
projected 2015: <6%

Though I'm currently living in a van; awesome and sustainable except for bringing another human or two under the roof.

my projection for 2015 had some needless voodoo and it ended up having an error in it.. so it was a bit off, despite my spending/income being pretty predictable:

2015: 9%
projected 2016: <6%

slightly disappointing that my projection is the same as last year's! For some back-of-the-napkin fun:
projected Oct 2017: 5%
projected Jan 2019: 4%
projected Feb 2021: 3%

Healthcare (insurance) future cost is now becoming a large factor to consider. Though, I'm generally keeping some of my numbers and assumptions very rough since I'm pretty young and still have my whole future to think about; maybe in two or three years I'll re-visit my future spending assumptions.

The probability of a significant factor change in the next 4 years is 99.999% (no more vandwelling? marriage? new job? move out of super high savings land? begin a semi-retirement? etc).

4.5%* and doing a trial run of retirement. Last day was today.

*Not wise on a historic peak but I still have time if I get cold feet. I'm also car dwelling and later 2nd world traveling. Kinda unstable not calculating rent but I anticipate more enjoyable jobs.

Toska2 wrote:4.5%* and doing a trial run of retirement. Last day was today.

Congrats!

Well done Toska2.

Nice Toska! Happy first week off the treadmill.

I'm averaging something over 6% for the past year. Not great. Had a 4.1% month in January and it was lousy, actually. If I were to plot my happiness versus spending on a graph, it would look like a flattened bell curve.

2.9% for just myself based on my current spending. But I will be providing for my whole family, so more like 6-7% to cover all that.

Q1 2016 achieved WR (monthly spending/prior month invested asset total):
- 3.94% strictly speaking
- 3.47% considering anticipated proceeds after downsizing house

Anticipated equivalent WR were I to retire today (annual spending/invested asset balance at start of year):
- Based on planned level of spending which is higher than my average spending back through 2012 and hopefully more than I actually spend during ER.
- 4.47% average until age 70
- 0.51% average age 70 and up
- 2.55% average now to age 85

Although it is maybe not necessary, I would like the "now until age 70" number at or below 3%. The Q1 2016 numbers are more optimistic than what I anticipate for the year (I don't expect to be able to maintain that low of a spending rate).

My calculation is what you might call an instantaneous calculation, where by the Trinity Study method, for example, the calculation is done once using the initial asset balance at the start of retirement. I use the method I do because of the time sequencing of fixed income sources (one of which is a non-COLA-adjusted SPIA) meaning my withdrawal profile is not fixed (relative to inflation).

I don't like to use the acronym SWR, as it is often taken to be "safe withdrawal rate" and I'm not sure anything on the order of my anticipated situation can be considered safe in an absolute sense. I believe in the original context, S -> "systematic".

I did some soul searching about the amount of money I would honestly need to get by.

Current SWR 12.17% (Current annual budget) 7.96% (Current barebones spending)

2016: 3.7%

~12.5%

I was curious where I stand in this regard, so I put together another spreadsheet, and searched my bank records.

I just hit about 4.75%, based on my current net worth, and my trailing 18 months average expenditures.

I live in a luxurious condo that I could easily down-size from if needed. If I went ERE I would need to pay a lot more for health insurance than I am having to pay for my employer plan (or at least, have to foot the bill for a much higher deductible from a subsidized ACA plan.)

I feel like I'm soooo close. Ooooh soo close. I think if I moved to a lower cost-of-living area, I'd be FI now. But I am involved with someone right now who wants to remain in Chicago. I'm willing to work a couple extra years to make this possible.

Update:
End of year numbers:
2010: 16%
2011: 11%
2012: 8%
2013: 6%
2014: 4%
2015: 6% (Higher because of increased spending on Van and house improvements)


Current:
At rolling 12 month actual spending: 4.4%
At projected forward spending ($15k/yr): 3%

I have calculated my SWR based on my expenses for the first 6 months of this year and then assumed that the expenses will be the same the next 6 months.

In my net worth I have included my stocks, but not my car, retirement accounts or that I will get money from government when I retire for real. I think the taxes I will pay on my investments and the money I get in retirement will approximately cancel each other in the long run, so I do not include tax effects in my SWR.

With my current level of expenses my SWR is 3.3 %.

I'm mostly a lurker, but I started following the blog and forums in September 2010. I hit the 4% mark at the end of June. It took me 5 years and 9 months.

I won't have my mortgage paid off until March 2018. Because of this I track two percentages. The first one ignores the mortgage debt since I'm planning to have it paid off before I FIRE. The second number is more accurate if I pull the plug early. I would pay off my mortgage at that time. I hit the 4% mark in June for both calculations.

The first calculation
(Expenses - Mortgage Principal) / Investable Assets

The second calculation, in parentheses
(Expenses - Mortgage Principal) / (Investable Assets - Mortgage Debt)

2010 - 50.8% (-17,273.8% didn't have enough investable assets to pay off mortgage)
2011 - 23.9% (70.9%)
2012 - 14.3% (23.2%)
2013 - 7.1% (8.9%)
2014 - 6.4% (7.4%)
2015 - 5.4% (5.9%)
June 30 2016 - 3.75% (3.96%)

Because of some policies at work it makes sense to quit in the Spring. My plan has always been to quit in 2018. I'm considering 2017 now. That mostly depends on my job satisfaction between now and then.

July 30th 2016 - 11.07%

Nice, enalynom2! Enjoy your last few months/years at work, knowing that you could already retire if you wanted to.

And 2Birds1Stone, you're slowly getting there . And you're, as you might know, miles ahead of most other people (99% or so?). Hardly anybody has 9 full years of expenses saved up...

Currently at around 5.7% SWR ... hope to reach 4% or less by mid-2020 (my target FIRE date) since I'll have to factor in healthcare costs at that point.