Unpredictability

riparian · Post by **riparian** » Sat May 19, 2012 9:25 pm

Have y'all noticed that life is really uncertain?
I have a friend who lives without money, plastic, metal, or any of the other things he feels weren't intended by the Christian god to be for humans. Last winter he had a pretty sweet structure and had made an amazing warm sleeping bag entirely out of cotton and wool and stuff from the dumpster. He thought he was pretty set for life, or at least the winter. His version of ERE. Then right in the middle of a forty below snap the cops came along and burned all his stuff (same happened to me with a squatter cabin once). He ended up with a lot of frostbite and still hasn't replaced what was taken.
It seems like a premise of ERE is that you can keep doing what you've been doing. If you're living on $200/m now, you can do it next year and the year after too. But life is uncertain. The future's unpredictable. Without my current set up I probably couldn't live on less than $4-500/m. And anything could happen anytime. Money is supposed to be a buffer for certain problems, but the less you need the less you have the less you can keep things from changing. (So, by the way, the government wants to build some bridges and make a road right past my land.)
Possibly becoming a total ninja is the only solution?

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Sat May 19, 2012 9:45 pm

I think this is why Jacob stresses being a renaissance man (or woman) in his book--one needs to adapt to changing situations.
The accumulation of capital is just one part of the equation. Knowing how to build, how to manage changed situations, and how to react to different challenges is all part of ERE. I'd say in your friend's case he wasn't really ERE because he didn't have the capital to adjust to his situation. Nothing wrong with squatting, but I think a large financial cushion is necessary in case that option no longer remains viable.

chenda · Post by **chenda** » Sat May 19, 2012 10:01 pm

Absolutely, life is very unpredictable. We plan ahead, but in the long run the only certainty is we're all dead.
I think having a goood set of skills and an adaptable nature is more important than financial capital. Its more reliable.
This road building plan - are you concerned for financial loss, or the loss of isolation and privacy ?

Post by **jacob** » Sun May 20, 2012 12:05 am

"Possibly becoming a total ninja is the only solution?"
"I think this is why Jacob stresses being a renaissance man (or woman) in his book--one needs to adapt to changing situations."
Yes and yes. Those who think that more money is the solution to uncertainty and especially the solution to resilience has a lot more faith in the system than I do.

Post by **jacob** » Sun May 20, 2012 12:36 am

The web of goals (ERE book chapter 4-5) is designed to deal with this uncertainty. The bigger the net and the more interwoven(<-also important both for resilience and the ability to "catch smaller fish"=gain more efficiency) it is, the less of a problem if one of the strings break. Putting everything into a job, a large pot of retirement money, or a sleeping bag is risky.

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Sun May 20, 2012 1:27 am

http://www.wikihow.com/Be-a-Ninja
The skill set is important, but I also think the process of building the "web" teaches you to be a more resourceful and enterprising person.

Christopherjart · Post by **Christopherjart** » Sun May 20, 2012 2:01 am

@riparian
Can we suppose that the friend whose stuff was burned was living in a place he didn't own or rent?

I can't imagine that living on the street would be stable in any way. Sure you don't pay rent, but your stuff wouldn't be protected nor would you be.

This just motivates me to keep saving, there is very little stability while you don't have a place to call your own.

Ego · Post by **Ego** » Sun May 20, 2012 4:20 am

Your friend's burned structure and your government's bridge-building plans may be the very things that cause you both to expand your basins of attraction and become more resilient to the unpredictability.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXLMeL5nVQk

riparian · Post by **riparian** » Sun May 20, 2012 6:18 am

@secretwealth -
"I'd say in your friend's case he wasn't really ERE because he didn't have the capital to adjust to his situation. Nothing wrong with squatting, but I think a large financial cushion is necessary in case that option no longer remains viable."
If you have 150k so you can retire with expenses of $500/m - low because your house is paid off - and then the state decides to build a road through your house or there's a flood and your house disappears, does that mean you weren't really ERE if you can't afford to buy another house and still live on your SWR?
@jacob, thanks, I'll fill out another inter library request for it. I'm excited to hear it goes beyond the financial. Once upon a time I was gonna start a resilience school for women and teach primitive skills, self defense, and money manifestation. Sounds like your concept is similar.
@Ego, I'd love to watch but my ere lifestyle doesn't include fast Internet. Summary, pretty please?

celliott · Post by **celliott** » Sun May 20, 2012 12:56 pm

I wouldn't classify his situation as "ERE".
I would classify him as "homeless".
I think there's a huge difference.

Scott 2 · Post by **Scott 2** » Sun May 20, 2012 1:10 pm

Life has risk. We either mitigate it ahead of time or deal when stuff happens. Dealing can be rough.
I personally would much rather mitigate ahead of time, even if it requires more resources. The resulting certainty provides a peace of mind I find worthwhile.

Ego · Post by **Ego** » Sun May 20, 2012 1:17 pm

The way to maintain the resilience of a system is to allow it to probe its boundaries.
If you never burn a forest, the species in that forest that are capable of putting up with that fire eventually get out-competed. The only way to make a forest resilient to fire is to burn it.
If you keep children inside away from dirt and dust they become prone to diseases and asthma. The only way to keep children resilient to the environment that they live in is to expose them to it and to disturb them in that environment.
Resilience is maintained by disturbing and probing the boundaries of resilience. Otherwise the ability to cope becomes less and less.
_________________
I am glad you asked for an outline. It gave me the opportunity to rewatch the video then type out the main message. Hopefully I will be able to remember it the next time my boundaries are being probed or disturbed.

Post by **jacob** » Sun May 20, 2012 11:18 pm

@Ego - This is the exact opposite of the "safety through technology"-attitude that's so culturally predominant currently.

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Sun May 20, 2012 11:41 pm

@riprarian: You bring an interesting question. I'd say that the situation you hypothesize is theoretically untenable. Eminent domain laws being what they are, the government does have to compensate you at FMV, so theoretically you could use that money to buy a house of equal value without touching the 150k. This is assuming no closing costs, which is of course unrealistic, but it's a minor enough consideration to ignore for this hypothetical situation.
I'm with celliott: there is a big difference between being ERE and being homeless.

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Sun May 20, 2012 11:47 pm

I don't know--having been in Alaska I think the customs might be a little different than in the lower 48.

Felix · Post by **Felix** » Mon May 21, 2012 9:28 pm

"Becoming a total ninja" - I like that. It appears to be the opposite of "going full retard".

riparian · Post by **riparian** » Tue May 22, 2012 4:43 am

Where's the line in savings or expenses that y'all find to be ERE or not ERE?
If I can live on 1k/year and save $30k to ERE, am I not really ERE because of my lack of cushion?
@secretwealth: okay then, not eminent domain. An act of god not covered by insurance.

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Tue May 22, 2012 5:05 am

I don't think there is a clear-cut line. If you can live on 1k/year and have $30k, you're financially independent until circumstances change (inflation is much more likely than an act of God, eminent domain, or anything similar). There's a difference between sustainable financial independent and unsustainable FI. However, I don't think one can predict either--not even the FIRE calc is foolproof.