Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 5:01 pm
@ Rob
Normally, I would not start a thread like this with a persons name, but it appears you don't mind this type of thing.
I don't spend nearly as much time as I should learning about investments. I spend much more time trying to eliminate any reoccurring bill in my life. I have not had the chance to read everything you have posted or checked out your site yet as I don't read everything in general because I have to set priorities in my time. But I think I read that you have been completely out of the market since 1996. I think I understand your strategy in valuation. In layman's terms:
People should avoid getting involved with the Baseball card, Status/Luxury items, and Beanie Baby raves that plague the stock market/society. Stocks/things are not worth as much as people are buying them for because when you look in history we have always had periods where we could buy them at better values and history tends to repeat itself. You basically want everyone to shop for investments/food in season.
The only flaw I see in waiting for value is that things are worth what they sell for (that doesn't mean anyone is buying at a good deal) but if you don't buy what you need (investments/food) you risk inflation (the other tax) eating away your principle (starving) while you are waiting. I don't believe a luxury car/boat/vacation is worth what they are sold for, but as long as people buy them at the luxury prices they truly are worth that price. Something being overvalued does not mean people did not purchase the item with real dollars (think famous paintings). The kick is that these people need each other to value the items as they do or the items will no longer sell at luxury prices. Another problem is that if people want something now they have to buy things at the prices they can find.
I don't see any flaw with buying a few dozen stocks at a good value instead of paying mutual fund fees to buy many overpriced less risky (I only say this because higher returns are usually related to higher risk) stocks, but I think not being invested has its own risks. I have read (propaganda?) that most large gains are in nearly as few days as the falls.
Given enough time I think there is no doubt that you will be correct. I just hope that there is another repeating stock trend for you to jump on. It is possible that the stock market does not go as low as you want until a true collapse. Then the concern will be if money in the bank is worth anything. The question lies if people can afford to be out of the market for 20-30 years trying to time it using value.
Is there a reason you have not bought individual stocks that are a good value instead of being out completely while attempting to time the entire market based on value?
Normally, I would not start a thread like this with a persons name, but it appears you don't mind this type of thing.
I don't spend nearly as much time as I should learning about investments. I spend much more time trying to eliminate any reoccurring bill in my life. I have not had the chance to read everything you have posted or checked out your site yet as I don't read everything in general because I have to set priorities in my time. But I think I read that you have been completely out of the market since 1996. I think I understand your strategy in valuation. In layman's terms:
People should avoid getting involved with the Baseball card, Status/Luxury items, and Beanie Baby raves that plague the stock market/society. Stocks/things are not worth as much as people are buying them for because when you look in history we have always had periods where we could buy them at better values and history tends to repeat itself. You basically want everyone to shop for investments/food in season.
The only flaw I see in waiting for value is that things are worth what they sell for (that doesn't mean anyone is buying at a good deal) but if you don't buy what you need (investments/food) you risk inflation (the other tax) eating away your principle (starving) while you are waiting. I don't believe a luxury car/boat/vacation is worth what they are sold for, but as long as people buy them at the luxury prices they truly are worth that price. Something being overvalued does not mean people did not purchase the item with real dollars (think famous paintings). The kick is that these people need each other to value the items as they do or the items will no longer sell at luxury prices. Another problem is that if people want something now they have to buy things at the prices they can find.
I don't see any flaw with buying a few dozen stocks at a good value instead of paying mutual fund fees to buy many overpriced less risky (I only say this because higher returns are usually related to higher risk) stocks, but I think not being invested has its own risks. I have read (propaganda?) that most large gains are in nearly as few days as the falls.
Given enough time I think there is no doubt that you will be correct. I just hope that there is another repeating stock trend for you to jump on. It is possible that the stock market does not go as low as you want until a true collapse. Then the concern will be if money in the bank is worth anything. The question lies if people can afford to be out of the market for 20-30 years trying to time it using value.
Is there a reason you have not bought individual stocks that are a good value instead of being out completely while attempting to time the entire market based on value?