Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
white belt
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Trade ideas to profit from possible Russia military action in Ukraine:

-initial vol spike (tricky since vol is high at the moment)
-short EU equities (FTSE?)
-short Ukrainian equities (although probably already priced in)
-long defense companies with large presence in Europe (probably more of a longer term trade)
-long natural gas

I need to do some more digging about the economic impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2014 on the EU specifically. If Putin wants to cause the most pain my guess is he will make moves during either the holidays or the coldest months because that’s when EU energy demand is going to be highest. However, if we learned anything from 2014 it’s that he may limit the pain to the EU as much as possible to reduce the likelihood of any sort of NATO intervention.

Any one have other ideas? Let’s keep the discussion to trade ideas rather than stray into political discussions.

white belt
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

To follow up on my last post, I've done some research and refined my ideas. Here's what I came up with:

1. The most obvious trade is to buy puts on RSX. The first issue is that everyone is thinking the same thing and RSX options are expensive at the moment due to high IV (although Taleb would argue that the tail risk is likely not fully priced in). The second issue is how RSX is largely made up of commodity producers and any destabilization of the region could shoot commodity prices even higher. My guess is Putin plans on pitting domestic interests in Europe against EU/NATO interests, betting that politicians will ultimately yield to domestic pressure for lower energy prices. So a possible scenario could be that Putin takes action and EU/USA talks big game with sanctions but ultimately decides not to reduce energy imports from Russia, thus RSX remains relatively unscathed. If RSX vol drops and/or the underlying rises, then this becomes a more attractive option (pun intended).

2. If I lived in Europe, I would strongly consider buying puts on stocks in countries that are extremely reliant on Russia for economic/energy reasons. Most of the former Soviet Bloc countries are the obvious choice, but there are other countries like Poland and Finland that I think are going to have issues. Poland could face a humanitarian crisis due to the large shared border with Ukraine and the fact that it falls under the NATO umbrella (we may have seen a rehearsal for that with the recent Belarus/Poland border situation). Finland is also entirely reliant on Russia for nat gas (only 7% of total energy consumption, but of that 66% goes to power plants and industry so any disruption to supply will hurt the economy). At the very least, any Russian action will shoot vol through the roof in the region. I still might do this if I can get my currency hedges straight.

3. Buy calls (likely call backspread) on Canadian Dollar/Russian Ruble (CAD/RUB).* In my mind, this somewhat hedges the risk of Russia taking action and being sanctioned while also causing commodity prices to rise. If Russia takes action, the RUB likely gets crushed due to the risk of sanctions. Even if commodity prices rise higher in the process, the CAD will rise with them. The worst case is that Russia does nothing and the commodity bull market ends, then I'd be down on the trade. I may very well be missing something important because I'm brand new to FOREX trading, so please tell me if I'm an idiot.

* = I'm assuming I can do this on my brokerage platform, but from I've read IB allows some pretty complex FOREX trading.

Edit: On second thought, RSX will already give me large RUB exposure, so option 3 might be overly complicated.

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Rented out some NFTs and moved the profits from the rental into ETH.

User avatar
Lemur
Posts: 1604
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am
Location: USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Looks like the market is only up because it priced in a tougher monetary policy. But the Fed is not being as aggressive as it could be. Or the market is glad the uncertainty is over. I sold a bunch of puts this morning on AMD, PLUG. Looks like I'll profit soon.

MU earnings call in 5 days. I own nearly $100k worth of shares.

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Lemur wrote:
Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:22 pm
...the market is up...
It's not at all time highs if you chart it against the m2 supply. You're using a misleading denominator (x dollars/share of broad US stock market rather than broad US stock market/m2)

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

As the year comes to an end, I’d like to review my year. I started around .9x and reached 3.1x. Income around .14x so investment income around 2x.

My biggest mistake by far, again, was being too safe. Held way way way too many safe assets. I have decreased my safe asset exposure (btc + eth) to about 1/3 of assets. My biggest holding is jewel atm, has ballooned beyond what I thought it would and been my best performer by far. Was farming it at 5000% apr and the price has 10x’d in that time as well. After that, eth, then btc, then avax, sol, luna, matic at 4%+ each then less in atom, rose, and some dust in near and nfts. Don’t copy trade as I may exit these positions at any time.

I will also stop assuming I know anything. I will research more when I find something that others find useful and act more quickly. I will keep liquid assets to easily move and have less positions I don’t understand well so I don’t paper hand them.

My biggest mistakes in trades taken were profit taking in sol at 112, luna in the 50s, avax in the 60s, and again, way way too much btc instead of eth or alt L1s at the beginning of the year.

I did move some btc into cake in May before the crash had hit bottom but I left that trade within a week and fixed the damage by buying quality assets.

My strategy for 2022 will be to read and understand more. To trade more quickly with deeper conviction but fewer positions as tracking 30+ coins is very difficult. My goal is to beat eth and exit to dai/alt stable coins if the fabled 80% crash comes and lasts over a year.

Dream of Freedom
Posts: 753
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Humanofearth wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:06 am
My biggest mistake by far, again, was being too safe. Held way way way too many safe assets. I have decreased my safe asset exposure (btc + eth) to about 1/3 of assets.
Why btc & eth as safe assets instead of a stablecoin or bonds? I understand that they will be around in 10 years, but they have high volatility which isn't ideal for your safest money.

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Bonds and stable coins are guaranteed losses when compared to their dilution rates (m2 growth). I feel very anxious every time I’ve tried holding them for long. Best I could do there is probably hold ust (Luna’s stable coin) at 20%apr on the anchor protocol but even that is less than m2 growth. Most consumables are increasing in cost at less than m2 growth, the inflation is largely in assets and I am not good at timing tops. Much better at identify strong assets and hodling them.

Btc is the most decentralized form of base layer money I’ve found. Eth is too useful for everything finance related. Can be transformed nearly instantly into almost anything, especially if held on a quick L2 like Avax or Matic.

I might dca out a little bit if things get too bubbly but those are my safe haven treasury assets.

Currently debating on when to exit my Jewel farms as they’re by far my largest position.
Last edited by Humanofearth on Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Seppia
Posts: 2009
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Wait there’s a stable coin pegged to the dollar that pays 20% apr?

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

@Seppia
Yes. It is with a stable coin called Terra (UST) on the Luna chain. You stake it with the anchor protocol in a web extension called the Terra Station.

If you ever want to invest more than a few thousand dollars, highly recommend a hardware wallet directly from the manufacturer. Ledger Nano X is my preferred but I don’t like that it is closed source.

It is a bit of a pain to set up but there’s no minimum investment so you can play with it with 100ust to get comfortable.

User avatar
Seppia
Posts: 2009
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Doesn't it sound a bit too good to be true?
If it trades like a dollar and it is backed by dollars, how can it offer dramatically more than a CD or a savings account?

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

@Seppia
That doesn’t beat the monetary dilution rate, before taxes. How is it too good to be true? I hold none. Thinking to put in $10 to practice with the protocol in case I ever wanted to use it more seriously but I’ve tended to farm more than loan out assets or play with stables.

It generates yield by being used for transactions. One example is to be borrowed against. You provide your coin to be borrowed, they deposit another coin as collateral while paying interest. If the loan:collateral rate falls below a limit, assets your counterparty deposited are automatically liquidated to ensure the value of your stable coins.

take2
Posts: 317
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by take2 »

@Seppia - AFAIK most defi is not actually backed by dollars. Some of the very high APYs that smaller defi crypto protocols offer are a way to generate interest (no pun intended) in their coin. However, if the (dollar) value of coin you earn interest in drops, then your total return is less, despite the high APY.

To be fair to @Humanoftheearth that’s not actually what he’s talking about, as he mentioned earning interest in a stable coin. I don’t know enough about Luna/Terra but would imagine the high interest rate is at least partially driven by a lack of supply of lenders and/or an initial offering to attract people to use the protocol. I would welcome @HotE’s more detailed explanation, noting that comparisons to dilution of m2 isn’t very helpful in explaining why you have confidence that the 20% earned in Luna/Terra is sustainable, or what the potential risks would be.

In general I’m a bit surprised at the knee-jerk reaction against crypto of many on the forum. Besides @HotE, @ego, and a few others I’ve mainly seen (very) negative views assuming it’s all a Ponzi scheme. Reality is usually in the middle of (extreme) narratives - there are of course some Ponzi schemes in crypto, and crypto will not be solving all of the worlds problems. It would serve most well to try to understand it with an open mind about the premise, whilst remaining sceptical about the specifics.

To that end @HotE I would for one appreciate if you could provide an overview of the key aspects you’ve learned (mainly focussed on risks/mitigants), especially within the defi space of earning a yield on and/or farming for assets.

Edited to add: Maybe on a different thread so as not to hijack this one.

User avatar
Seppia
Posts: 2009
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

take2 wrote:
Tue Dec 28, 2021 4:51 am
In general I’m a bit surprised at the knee-jerk reaction against crypto of many on the forum. Besides @HotE, @ego, and a few others I’ve mainly seen (very) negative views assuming it’s all a Ponzi scheme. Reality is usually in the middle of (extreme) narratives - there are of course some Ponzi schemes in crypto, and crypto will not be solving all of the worlds problems. It would serve most well to try to understand it with an open mind about the premise, whilst remaining sceptical about the specifics.
My two cents: the crypto space is similar to the “new economy” stocks in the late 90s.
Something potentially interesting and maybe very useful and transformative will come out of it, but most retail investors piling in will lose a their shirt. I don’t want to be among them so I stay away at the moment.

I personally assume 95% of the space is full of fraud, for one simple reason: it’s (for now) unregulated.
The stablecoin which accounts for 70% of all crypto trading volumes (tether) will not produce an audit of its reserves, it’s hard to give them the benefit of the doubt when there are zero benign reasons to not do it.

Plus, I save 3 months of expenses every month and I don’t need to look for the “home run”.
Lastly, I don’t like the energy intensive nature of BTC.

I’m sure there’s plenty of money to be made (or lost). It’s just not for me.

zbigi
Posts: 968
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by zbigi »

Married2aSwabian wrote:
Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:46 am
When your country has a debt to GDP ratio of 128, that’s a pretty strong indication that the $ printing has gotten a bit out of hand.
Can someone please educate me re: the state-owed debt? If the debt is issued by banks who just borrow money from FED, who in turn is just printing it - can't the US govt at some just legislate that this debt is cancelled? This would be basically a victimless crime - the printer will not care if it doesn't get it's dollars back :)

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

@take2
I only claimed it was not “too good to be true” because I see 20% returns as far too low a goal when m2 is above 20%. My returns this year we’re around 180%, including all my massive mistakes. Could’ve easily been triple that.

“ key aspects you’ve learned (mainly focussed on risks/mitigants), especially within the defi space of earning a yield on and/or farming for assets.”

It’s been a hard year, just trying to keep moving forward. I’d say to always keep learning and experiment as much as you can, even with a few dollars if that’s all you feel comfortable with. Build a node, run a pay or Lightning server and get the qr system working, bridge avax to eth, try farming and calculate your yield manually to see how much impermanent loss really is, burn Luna for Terra and see how the anchor protocol works for yourself. To farm and experiment, I’d recommend against eth L1. Meaning, buy matic or avax or sol or etc and use their cheaper fees. You can still farm or hold wrapped eth there but gas will be under a penny mostly instead of 10-100usd. The biggest risk mitigator is to learn constantly, see what the narratives are. Use Twitter to find the best projects and then follow those projects, what’s the development team like and how well do they communicate/ develop the project?

@Seppia
If you hold bonds, you support the military directly and building nukes is always far more destructive than burning the very cheapest energy-ie- hydro in China during flood season- and distributes assets in a far more concentrated way. Is proof of ownership through violence really better for our future than through channeling energy and building communities around the cheapest sources of energy like solar in the Sahara?

Back to thread
Took a trade on this crash, diversified some btc into solunavax, matic, and atom. This is the lowest btc amount I’ve held so far but I feel better being more diversified and risk on. I’ve played extensively with all the ecosystems.

At the moment, roughly 40% Jewel, 15% eth, 7% each atom, sol, luna, avax, matic, btc, and the remaining 3% in scrt, a few nfts, about .05-.1% in fiat, mostly a local bank account. Some coins staked, more farmed.

User avatar
giskard
Posts: 317
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

I guess I will also do a review for 2021:

This year SPY did about 30%. The valuation by traditional metrics is hilariously stretched.

My year / year change in net worth is up by about 30%. Basically this was a lot of outperformance in the crypto part of my portfolio and terrible underperformance in the stocks part of my portfolio. On the crypto side, I mostly hold BTC and ETH but the biggest gains came from other L1 tokens I added like SOL, LUNA, FTM and stuff like that. I only hold around 1/3rd of my net worth in crypto.

I have a pretty large stock portfolio of various miners, precious metals, natural resources, US MSO companies, lot of foreign ETFs and tech stocks. Tech stocks went up or went sideways (the more speculative ones). Things like oil and miners did well, anything precious metals related did nothing or was negative.

Overall, I feel good about my diversification. I am holding a little bit too much cash right now, but I'm in the process of trying to buy a small house so can't really avoid that.

I'm already pretty much at my FI number and now I am very picky about what I do for work, it's essentially only fun stuff I want to do but I still work a fair amount so I still spend less time on investing than I might if I wanted to maximize things. In 2020 my performance was MUCH better, I was focused on it more.

I'm happy to have a big allocation to bitcoin and precious metals and a diversification across a lot of different equity markets (internationally as well). So to have that much diversification and basically be at parity with SPY makes sense to some degree. I do think I am better prepared for weird market conditions than most but I suppose we will see! I think we are in for some chop with the combo of rate hikes, midterms, inflation, and all of the geopolitical crises brewing.

Dream of Freedom
Posts: 753
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

To get the kind of very strong labor market we want with high participation, it's going to take a long expansion. We can see that participation is moving only very slowly, and to get a long expansion, we're going to need price stability - Jerome Powell
The FED wants a long expansion not to pop the bubble by raising rates. All-time highs here we come!

Der Leiermann
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon May 11, 2020 5:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Der Leiermann »

Dream of Freedom wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:46 am
The FED wants a long expansion not to pop the bubble by raising rates. All-time highs here we come!
To me, in the current environment price stability and low rates are mutually exclusive. I suppose we’ll see what the FED values more.

User avatar
Lemur
Posts: 1604
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am
Location: USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

SOFI just received its National Bank Charter and popped 16%. If you believe in this FinTech company for the long run, now would be a great time to get in if you believe the growth in membership can be sustained. SOFI stock price is 1/2 of its 52 week high of $28.26 (currently trading at $14.06).

I bought the majority of my shares at $20.00 (oof) but averaged down enough to get cost basis per share at $15.57.

Post Reply