Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Thanks.
@MI I see you’re the usual optimist :lol: (I’m joking I really appreciate your takes).

With cryptos, it’s fascinating to see the level of correlation between tether’s printing (it’s very blatant now that they aren’t backed almost at all - they are under investigation from the DOJ and somehow people are sending them billions per week…) and BTC price.
They print -> it goes up.
Almost as if someone was pushing Bitcoin prices up with funny money.

On uranium, it’s 100% a squeeze play, read about it following @kuppy.
Basically the narrative is
Production doesn’t meet demand now
Enter Sprott fund which is legally obliged to be a price insensitive buyer
Nuclear plants must buy uranium at almost any price
Big potential for a meltup

I put something around 0.5% of my NW into it. I guess it’s some sort of FOMO on the recent gigantic gains everybody seems to ha love been doing in the last two years with either meme stocks, fake currencies and jpegs of rocks.
I know/believe all of this will come crushing down to zero sooner or later, which is why I still own 0 crypto, 0 meme stocks and 0 NFTs (and focused on boringly profitable stuff), but I am not 100% impermeable to what happens around me.

Uranium squeeze seemed like a way for me to “jump in”, but I’m doing it with something that has a real use.

It is morally disgusting to me to try and profit from the public need for uranium, which is why I’m thinking I will give 50% of any net gains to charity (and will be weirdly happy if I lost some money)

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Before you get too generous with nominal profits just remember that you need 20-40% returns annually just to keep up with going rate of money printing.

Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

@Seppia

I question the fundamentals of a uranium squeeze for 2 reasons:

1. Uranium is a very small percentage of nuclear power plant operating cost.

2. Due to #1 and the criticality of uranium for a nuclear power plant to function, utilities already have multi-year contracts that lock in their supply of uranium at a particular price.

With that said, it is still possible that uranium related investments skyrocket because of massive inflows. Uranium is a small market with only a handful of miners, not an enormous market like silver. Kuppy usually has a pretty good handle on these sorts of things.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:36 am
Before you get too generous with nominal profits just remember that you need 20-40% returns annually just to keep up with going rate of money printing.
What are your preferred figures/charts/metrics to track the rate of fiat currency devaluation? Obviously the DXY doesn’t work when every central bank is devaluing their currencies in lockstep.
Last edited by white belt on Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Short squeeze in a sense that nuclear plants are naturally short uranium, as individuals are naturally short housing and if they need to drive to get to work they are naturally short an automobile. The “need” by hedge funds to buy meme stocks at high prices was artificially created in the financial markets by them borrowing over 100% of the free float, where this squeeze in uranium is a natural squeeze in the real economy.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

M2 calculated the new way:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

M2 calculated the old way:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

M3 calculated the new way:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S

M3 calculated the old way:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M3

(There may be more information in why they have to keep changing their method of calculations.)

But those are just dollars and not euros/yuan/yen, and are just rear view mirrors.

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giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Ah the uranium trade is finally paying off!

@Mister Imperceptible - I have to say I was expecting gold & silver miners to pay off a little bit sooner than the uranium miners. I have some URA / URNM / CCJ exposure I added late last year but just a nibble and not nearly as much as I wanted to have. Oh well, I'll also be looking to buy on the pullback like you.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold puts on AMD ($95) and CRSR ($25) about a month out.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

@MI when you buy physical gold and silver you mean actual bars or do you use something like the sprott trusts that buy gold bars?

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Gold:

One ounce coins are the way to go. Universally recognized and super liquid to both buy and sell. Fractional ounce coins cost a higher premium to spot. Larger bars are more suspect to counterfeit. The four major one ounce coins are:

American Eagle
Canadian Maple Leaf
Austrian Philharmonic
South African Krugerrand

In the US it is the first two which circulate the most by far. Eagles have a bit of silver and is therefore not the classic “crown gold” and commands a higher premium (at least in the US). The Maple Leaf is 4 nines fine and is my preferred coin. Beautiful and harder to counterfeit.

In Europe the Philharmonic is also 4 nines fine and would be my preferred coin were I there. Flatter and has a wider surface area, probably harder to counterfeit than even the Maple Leaf. The British Sovereign is probably more widely traded in Europe.

The Krugerrand is classic crown gold and was the first widely traded modern coin. It will be the most durable and least susceptible to wear. It is also the easiest to counterfeit.

Before March 2020 I could get one ounce coins at a 2% premium to spot. Now these run you 5% premium to spot. Eagles 1-2% on top on that. I sold Eagles one time to local dealers after March 2020 at a shade above spot for physical cash. The true spot for physical since March 2020 is above the quoted paper price.

As a rule I buy new coins to play the bullion value and do not mess with numismatic.

Silver:

Much greater variation. I pay lower premiums to get 100-ounce bars. Engelhard and Johnson Mathey were famous reliable producers but no longer and many of these older bars have tarnish. Mostly I have 100-ounce bars from the Royal Canadian Mint which are shiny and new. Before March 2020 I could get these at 5% premiums to spot per ounce. Now, 10-12%.

Junk silver (pre-1965 US dimes, quarters, half-dollars) were available near spot before March 2020. Much harder to find now.

The premiums on modern one ounce silver coins like Eagles and Maple Leafs are just too high. If I cannot get junk, I get 100-ounce bars. Generally the local dealers ask for a deposit and only get you the big bars if you front the cash. But they have always delivered for me.

I have never sold silver given its historical undervaluation and higher premiums, and cannot speak to how much the premiums can be recouped.




I have never bought any paper ETF representing the metal but if I had no choice I would pick Sprott. They have a reputation for honesty and have employed intelligent people like Rick Rule that openly speak of the government as corrupt. But no human being or corporation is infallible. To me, buying a paper/digital representation defeats the purpose. The attraction of gold and silver is that they are not of man which is what differentiates them from other financial instruments.

If I am going buy paper it may as well be mining shares, and those shares have treated me well. And they still look undervalued. They trade as if gold was at $1400. It’s value with explosive growth potential rolled into one. Probably why I sound monotonous, I do not see that combination anywhere else.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ZAFCorrection »

white belt wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:40 am
2. Due to #1 and the criticality of uranium for a nuclear power plant to function, utilities already have multi-year contracts that lock in their supply of uranium at a particular price.

My understanding is that producers (e.g. cameco), when they do have multi-year contracts, are also buying on the spot market to fulfill those contracts because it is cheaper than running a mine. So the squeeze might be on the producers as well as utilities, to the extent that they are paying highee prices while also trying to bring idled mines online. In any case the price of uranium would still increase, but investing in particular miners might be a bad idea depending on whether they are currently short.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

By October 15, I plan to have most of my naked puts closed out. I'm thinking that the U.S. debt ceiling not being raised is a real possibility and not just normal theatre. We shall see I guess.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:34 pm
Gold:
(Cut)
What a great post thanks a lot!

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Well...this sucks. My YTD gains on short options trading were all but wiped out today when I closed my short puts on Moderna for a big L. Lost nearly $13k. My timing could not have been worse...I sold these last week...and Moderna is down more than 20% in the last 5 days. I also had to sell my long positions in AMD (took a $12k realized gain) to meet the margin call and will be taking long-term capital gains tax on that.

Time to reevaluate where I went wrong. I fell for a "bull trap." Perhaps if I had done a put credit spread or not even touched this stock I wouldn't be having this debacle but I take it this was bound to happen eventually. I was getting too aggressive and not appropriately managing tail risk.

There are lessons to be learned here. Not the first time I had to question everything I know about risk management....

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

I'm back on the saddle rather quickly. Opened up a put credit spread on Moderna. Previously I was just naked...but now with defined risk. Also shortened my time until expiration from 30 days to 21 days. I'm thinking the stock price has bottomed out and I can ride some of the wave back up. I tihnk the market really overreacted to this "COVID Pill."

I also added to some of my long positions - AMD, MSFT, PEP, BAC, and AAPL during the recent dip.

Edit: I ended up taking another L on this Moderna put credit spread but thankfully I was out early in the morning before it really burned a hole in my account. Did take a win on MSFT. Needless to say, this is not a great environment for bullish options plays...stay careful folks.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:38 pm
On this the ninetieth anniversary of The Great Crash weekend, I chant and dance in drunken ecstasy to INVOCATE the spirit of John Larry Kelly Jr.

Levered long gold, levered long volatility.

IACTA ALEA ESTO
jacob wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:35 am
S&P500 finally reaching new heights surpassing the last record from 20190726.
Total market cap to US GDP now at 144%. Highest point during tech bubble was 148%.
20211025 total US market capitalization to GDP 209%

20191025 SP500 to gold ratio ~2.02

20211025 SP500 to gold ratio ~2.53

Options portfolio 20191025-20211025 performance -60.5%

Options portfolio peak performance August 2020 +415%

Total NW 20191025 to 20211025 +147%

Total NW peak performance from 20191025 August 2020 +246%

Large reallocation of cash to options portfolio 20211025.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:02 pm
Large reallocation of cash to options portfolio 20211025.
what are you betting on?

p.s. I finally bought my first Maple Leaf 1oz, just to test the seller*, thanks!

*should be fine, I bought from the most established seller with a massive office in central HK, but I still like to test first

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Seppia wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:36 pm
what are you betting on?
the ratio

“Do not begin unless you intend to finish”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M0TjT53qpFY

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

$30k on General Mills.

Good Dividend (3.30%)
Stock slowly goes up.
Consistent Revenue Growth.
Defensive Stock in a Recession (People have to eat)
Brand Power
6.85% ROA
23.48% ROE
0.78 Current Ratio
Significant Insider Buying Transactions
16.47 PE Ratio (Great in this environment - same as peers).

Continuing to switch over to value plays.
Running naked puts on AMD, INTC, and Visa.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Jumped on a few LMT during the sell off

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