Investments Trade Log

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Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

Selling some shares of ACI at $22 and shorting CACC again now at $527.

This is an all time high for CACC and their business model is subprime and deep subprime auto loans to folks with bad - terrible credit. Think 20% + interest rates and 37% default rates. It’s legal loan sharking with many political connections and lawyers to push for collections, repos, etc. Awful business. Likely most customers don’t know what they’re signing - they just need a car. With moratorium on evictions expiring, many will be forced to choose between keeping their apt or keeping their car.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Jumped on a few CLX, dropping 10% today due to earnings miss

Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

Amending above post - not able to short CACC due to no shares available to short - NTS or HTS. Attempted trades were canceled.

At least on TD Ameritrade…I installed their thinkorswim app (at suggestion of TD rep) which also did not provide this info.

Any suggestions? Not too mad, since it went up even more today. ;D

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Macerich (MAC) - I still hold this 'meme' from when I overbought in January at $20.22, I've been selling covered calls since. The price is very predictable because we know that they're tapping equity to reduce debt and they do so whenever there is a short-term rally or like on there last earnings call they were very specific that they tapped equity at $18.41. So...selling CC's at $18 lately. My cost basis is actually $15.23 now so I'm in the green technically. Would like to still dump around $20.

Nokia (NOK) - Mostly trades sideways - this was the other meme I bought in January where I was down quite a bit but still held. For this one I actually believe in the fundamentals so it is a long-term hold. I sell the covered calls at $6.50 but so far have not had my shares called away. I am in the green with cost basis at $4.90. Past 2 earnings the price rallied. Something to keep an eye on.

Corsair Gaming (CRSR)- 22% YoY growth and stock fell 8% or so yesterday. No brainer...opened naked puts near ATM this morning and I'm already profiting from those. I texted a friend of mine about Corsair and he said "Of course I know Corsair! Everyone has that stuff." All I needed to hear really. Caution - apparently some capital venture called EagleTree owns a large majority of this company and they've been selling off. I would expect price to be held down in the $30-$40 range for a while. There should be growth in this sector - I don't believe COVID was a one off.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - My largest holding and one of the few times my CC strategy really kicked me in the nuts. I'm still profiting but right now I'm looking at quite a bit of lost upside with CC's at $97.50 for the Sept. 17 expiration. I sold some naked puts at the $95 price for the same expiration. I plan to roll the CC and try to inch my strike up slowly at net credits until I'm back in the green.

Bank of America (BAC) - Another holding that is very predictable in its movements lately. Buy below $40. Sell above $40 or sell puts below $40 or sell calls above $40.

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C40
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

Seppia wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:00 am
Jumped on a few CLX, dropping 10% today due to earnings miss
I'd bought CLX back in 2014 at $90, then sold it at over $200 at the end of 2020. Maybe I should buy it back now (at $160)

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

For me, CLX and a few other USA companies, it's a fabulous display of "anchoring" at work.
Those are great stocks I've wanted to purchase for a long while, always thought they were expensive, missed out on big gains, and now jumping in at prices I'd never bought in 6 years ago but feel like a bargain looking back at the last 52 weeks.

I'm fully aware of the tricks that my brain plays with me, which doesn't make me less prone to mistakes.

Only, due to my financial situation, I'm allowed to cheat as I never need to sell and just throw in money every month, so much so that my mistakes disappear and become irrelevant.
On average, I think I would have been slightly better off just buying index funds regularly, more aggressively in downturns and less aggressively at high valuations.

But that would be boring so I just end up in a similar place, only with a lot more time wasted in research
But
1/ I enjoy the process
2/ it's sustainable to me, meaning I can stick to it long term (I tend to give up some performance but have less volatility than an index)

So it's worth it

Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

Seriously, I should stick to My Vanguard ETFs like VOO. I’ve held some shares of ACI since last Sept. As soon as I sold about half of them at $22 on Tues, the stock starts strongest up trend all year! Up 11% in past four days. Maybe grocery stores are the new Tesla! Oh well, the other 240 shares are looking good. CACC, it turns out, is either HTB or NTB currently - at least on TD Ameritrade - so that idea was a bust. Anyway, it’s up over 5% since I wanted to short it…seems like it’s in the stratosphere, but who knows. Company is basically a pawn shop: deep sub-prime car loans.
Instead of that trade, I bought 100 shares of BWA at $46.50, which celebrated my investment in them by promptly dropping 2% today. :lol: They are in a strong position to profit in accelerating EV sector as a major tier one supplier. P/E of 13.5 seems like a cigar butt valuation currently. Will hold that for a good while.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

YTD I'm underperforming SPY by a few percentage points. Mainly due to missed upside from covered calls and taxable events created from options trading.

There is certainly no shame in a transition back to index funds (which make up 60% of my net-worth anyhow) especially late in the FI game where risk ought to be reduced.

But like in a boxing fight...sometimes all it takes is one to move drastically to change your portfolio (either up 8-) or down :shock:) so there is a certain allure to that.

No trades this week. Just monitoring my naked puts and CCs. Lately trying to reduce activity.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Why not do both? 95% in a world tracker & 5% fun money for trading (with a rule of only adding to fun money once long track record of outperformance is established).

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Bankai

Basically what I do now but the fun money is in the 40% range. Looking to reduce that ratio over time. Can't help but think since our current expenses are in the 16x to 21x range (depending on high vs low spending projections) there is becoming less and less reasons to take on unnecessary risk.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

The Macerich saga is over. I bought at the absolute high at $20.22 during the meme run-up in January (big mistake) and since January I've written covered calls on the way down and occasionally bought more to dollar cost average...I saw this stock go almost under $10 and I still held...

Macerich Shares: 1849.6340
Cost Basis Per Share: $19.106 $35,339.03
Shares Sold: 1849 @ $16.86 $31,174.14
Total Premiums Made Selling Covered Calls: $7,103.87
Net Profit/Loss: + $2,938.93
% Gain/Loss: 8.31%

Today I exit this rollercoaster at profit. I'm so relieved. All trading here was done in a retirement account so I've no tax situation to deal with here. I put the funds back into VXUS. This is part of my ongoing plans to shift back towards more passive investing...Interestingly enough VXUS is up 9.42% YTD so I would've been better off never doing this to begin with.

On the other hand - had I not bought so high and bought this stock a week later after the meme crash....this would've looked like a 'brilliant' move where I could've nearly doubled my investment.

I also sold SPG at profit and put funds into Visa. I'm out of the REITS / Malls industry.

Things that prompted my moves here...

1.) Continued uneasiness with volatility.
2.) Delta Variant (and probably more variants).
3.) Macerich has most of its business in California - a place that continues to be plagued by the virus and now wild fires...
4.) I was initially bullish on MAC attempts to invest more in office spaces but I think remote is here to stay.
5.) Generally I don't see much value in malls going forward; I tried to convince myself otherwise though not gonna lie.
6.) Management made it clear that they will continue to ATM / dilute shares in the $18+ range. Why should I hold this when a simple index can get me the same return, if not better, without being capped?

Overall - I'm happy I was still able to profit. This shows the flexibility of options to me; otherwise, this could've just been a $4k loss without all those premiums.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Good premium, delta rising. On a down day...easy money here.

Sold 2 OTM puts on MRNA 210924 P 350.00 for $13.25 a contract. BTC set for $6.60.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I have bought a few Tencent shares on the way down, with an avg price of 451hkd per share. Big jump today.
You rarely get companies with almost no net debt, huge margins and growth rates so high that 20% YoY is "somewhat disappointing" at these valuations.
Sure there's a fairly big country risk here, but it was worth taking the plunge (I've allocated a grand total of 1% of my NW so not exactly betting the bank either).

I'll try to buy some Kweichow Moutai as soon as I manage to activate trains in Shanghai shares

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

MRNA puts closed after 9 days. I said it was easy money :lol: . Might just do it again if it takes another dip.

Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

So, it turns out ACI is the new Tesla! It’s gone up to 33 now after another 10% jump yesterday. Fortunately I held onto 240 shares of it, when I sold off about 200 at 22 about 5 weeks ago. BWA is still down at 43, but will bounce back.
The other good / news bad news trade is CACC: since I thought it’d be a great idea to short it at that time, it’s gone from 530 to 660, including a 12% jump yesterday. Luckily, I had a hard time finding shares to borrow and finally borrowed just 2 (at 562) to follow along.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

STO (Sell-to-Open) PUTS on Moderna again. $350 P. Also sold some really far OTM on Intel. Was surprised to see open interest on the $48 ones but they were there. Like picking up money on a sidewalk.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

STO 5x 10/08/2021 PUTS on AMD $102

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Anybody following what’s happening with Uranium due to Sprott’s trust?

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Seppia wrote:
Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:25 pm
Anybody following what’s happening with Uranium due to Sprott’s trust?
From a momentum perspective, it’s becoming the meme commodity. Sprott generated a bunch of interest from retail investors by launching their Uranium ETF and now it seems like people are piling in. I wouldn’t be surprised if hedge funds are fueling the fire like they do/did with all of the other meme stocks.

I liked the fundamental bull case for uranium a year ago when I purchased some URNM but now it seems to be catching fire from momentum, so slightly disconnected from fundamentals.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I do wish I bought some of that Uranium ETF or CCJ/URNM but I will not chase a parabolic move. Kaplan and Rosengren sold their stocks and have been telegraphing a taper for months.

Image

Cryptos have also been up the last few weeks and together with uranium it looks like a possible meltup and short squeeze.

I took out $125,000 more in personal loans and bought more physical gold and silver, trading near 52 week lows. I am holding the rest in cash and waiting to see how the end of the eviction/mortgage moratoriums and end of stimulus checks shakes out at the same time the rate of aggregate central bank stimulus slows. They need an external event to blame a potential crash on and justify more stimulus. In early 2020 it was Covid-1984. I suspect the next down wave will be blamed on the unvaccinated and the concomitant potential disruption in the labor markets and civil unrest as we see vaccine mandates resisted. In the event of a downturn I have plenty of cash to buy precious metals miners and uranium exposure. In a crash, miners will be at a discount but physical will not be available at the spot price.

I am now working two jobs and potentially soon I will be working three.

I also bought several more firearms and I am always armed, often dual wielding.

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