Investments Trade Log

George the original one · Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:13 am

Beign a nervous nellie in this market, I sold all remaining UHT shares today and half of my AVA (recent quarterly report had a weak forecast). Had thought about selling them yesterday, but needed a push from the news today... I still scored UHT as a 5% capital gain and at least one quarter's dividend. AVA was a 10+% capital gain and one quarter's dividend.
That puts me at about 15% cash when combined with the earlier INTC sale while we watch the Euro melt-down.

DividendGuy · Post by **DividendGuy** » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:25 am

@George
That MLP question was a bit tailored to you as you seem to like MLP's and REIT's.
KMI is not set up as a MLP. They do own the general partner to the MLP Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. There was a great article on Seeking Alpha describing the company in general and more exact terms:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/303905- ... ks-to-sell
I didn't know if anyone had entered in a position with KMI or not. I'm interested, but I'll be honest in saying I don't completely understand how this will work out long term...so I'm out for now. But it does seem compelling based on the regularity and predictability of KMP's revenues.

MySavingStyle · Post by **MySavingStyle** » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:05 pm

Sold all my WEN, 850 shares at $5.50 last week. I bought it at 5.35, was hoping to hang for a while and see some gains, but just couldn't stomach it. I have a few shares of MCD, which I wish I wouldn've bought more last year (at 70). Oh well, hindsight!
I used the money from that transaction to purchase ABT, 90 shares at 53.30. Really excited to watch this for growth and dividends. The market took a bit of a plunge yesterday, but I can't get caught up in the day to day volatility.

George the original one · Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:50 am

For those of you holding muni bond funds, have you noticed prices heading up above NAV?
My personal choice, VKQ, is now trading for a 2% premium to NAV. This is usually a sign that people are fleeing perceived risk and putting money into something that seems relatively safe... usually lasts for a couple of months and then cycles back down. Consequently, I'll be tightening my stop losses and monitoring it more closely.

DividendGuy · Post by **DividendGuy** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:27 am

Bought 20 shares of GD and 50 shares of VOD.
http://www.dividendmantra.com/2011/11/r ... uy_15.html

Dragline · Post by **Dragline** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:19 pm

Bought PHYS and TLT today.

Post by **jacob** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:26 pm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/309314- ... retirement

DividendGuy · Post by **DividendGuy** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:08 am

Anyone here long on Telefonica (TEF)?

George the original one · Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:22 pm

@DividendGuy - I'm seriously considering TEF in the next 5 months. My taxable portfolio is now large enough that the semi-annual dividends wouldn't be a detriment, which was the main reason I had avoided it so far.
I have some doubts as to the sustainability of the dividend growth (not the current dividend, just whether it can continue growing at this pace), but the current yield is plenty high.

George the original one · Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:23 pm

Anyone considering GE or MSFT at the current prices? If not, why not?

dragoncar · Post by **dragoncar** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 3:29 am

I can't wait to see Jacobs microseconds trades here.

Hoplite · Post by **Hoplite** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 5:15 am

I've considered both GE and MSFT but have not bought; both have had a lousy 10 year run and I've been happy for each purchase not made. For MSFT, I can't really see the growth, even though the company has worked through some of its problems (Microsoft-we get it right the third time!) Still, with the dividend it can make sense to trade the range, since I see little prospect of real growth but don't see true sudden catastrohic failure either.
For GE, the best case for it that I've seen is at http://www.fastgraphs.com/_blog/Researc ... _Electric/

Basically overvalued during the Jack Welsh era, it may be low enough now to provide an above average total return over the next five years.

DividendGuy · Post by **DividendGuy** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 8:35 am

I've looked at both MSFT and GE.
With respects to GE, I'm concerned about the debt load and any lingering issues from GE Capital. Although the stock is cheap, it isn't dirt cheap. I think it will be profitable and the dividend will continue to be raised, but with so many other companies out there that were in better shape and were able to keep going strong through the last recession, why take the gamble? On the other hand, GE used to have higher multiples, so one can reasonably predict this will trade higher in the future...much like some of the big banks. Dividend cuts, recent dividend hikes, becoming profitable again, but why take the risk unless they're dirt cheap? I go back and forth on GE and some of the banks.
MSFT has no growth catalysts, but it's a huge cash cow with a pretty large cash stash. It's pretty cheap and the dividend and valuation are pretty fair even if it just keeps collecting money from the businesses it has (Windows, Office suites, licensing) and has no big growth catalyst. A growth catalyst (new product, success of windows phone) could just be icing on the cake. Although I think INTC is the better tech play, MSFT is a hedge on that bet, as well as a little cheaper.

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 6:24 pm

I think MSFT will use some of that cash to purchase growth over the next decade. I don't see INTC and MSFT as being the same kind of tech company, so I could see owning both.
I'm avoiding GE (seems like there could still be a lot of buried risk). But take that with a teaspoon of salt since I'm avoiding most things right now

George the original one · Sun Dec 04, 2011 6:58 pm

> MSFT has no growth catalysts
People have been saying this for what seems like ages, yet MSFT continues to grow revenue and profits at a decent clip. I've been coming around to the point of view that MSFT is like T; we think there should be a hot new product (iPhone exclusivity for T) to drive growth, but that isn't really how T works.
I can understand that INTC has been a better play. It's been easier to buy INTC on dips and sell portions at peaks to build the INTC holding. But, INTC has sporadic, rather than consistent revenue growth, which means it's not as solid to hold.
> I've considered both GE and MSFT but have not bought;

> both have had a lousy 10 year run and I've been happy

> for each purchase not made.
MSFT was vastly overpriced a decade ago, so of course its market returns were lousy. Chuck Carnevale has a wonderful FAST graph on that from last year... http://seekingalpha.com/article/227011- ... soft-a-buy. Since then, the valuation picture has improved even more.
The chart for GE is not as strong as MSFT.
> With respects to GE, I'm concerned about the debt

> load and any lingering issues from GE Capital.
I had those concerns last year and that kept me buying because there were better options. With time, the concerns have eased and I'd rather be early to this party... if it turns out to be boring, then an early exit can find another party. Either that or I just sit on the sidelines and not join any party (because there are darn few promising ones right now).
****
So thanks for your thoughts! They've helped me make up my mind and, as a result, I'll definitely buy MSFT and set an entry price for GE (which it looks like I missed two weeks ago).

George the original one · Sun Dec 04, 2011 7:57 pm

re: TEF

"do not forget that Spain’s withholding tax is 35%"
Hmm, that changes the picture a bit and should help establish an entry price.
update by a different person: "Spain's withholding is 19%"
Not sure which to believe, but at least those are numbers to consider.

Hoplite · Post by **Hoplite** » Sun Dec 04, 2011 8:04 pm

Thanks for that link on MSFT--spot on from someone who actually did get in and get out according to their analysis.

I like your thinking here. In another thread I believe you mentioned pari-mutual betting as a skill for investing. I know something about betting (at least harness racing) and apply some general rules. It's usually a poor strategy to bet favorites to win. It's also usually a poor strategy to bet yesterday's favorite to win but with better odds. But a good fallback is to bet yesterday's favorite to show (depending on the relative size of the pool) to gain some ground while waiting for better opporunities. There are worse things than hanging out in the show pool, I mean party!

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:27 pm

@George-I hope you jumped in with GE. I saw two firms upgraded them today.

Chris · Post by **Chris** » Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:19 pm

GTOO: don't forget to factor in the Foreign Tax Credit when figuring the impact of foreign tax on dividends.

m741 · Post by **m741** » Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:37 am

I'm cautiously buying right now. Picked up some UGI, added to BLV on dips. Looking to load up on some more EHI, but I've already got a large position. If I feel more comfortable about the Eurozone I'd pick up some more PFF but I don't want too much exposure to the financial sector.
I've done very well with INTC and would buy more on dips as it's a good dividend payer in the tech sector.
I don't trust MSFT's leadership (Ballmer is just horrendous) and although they have a broad moat that's the only thing going for them.