Investments Trade Log

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Seppia
Posts: 2016
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I bought a tiny bit of ASML

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Seppia
Posts: 2016
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Came recommended by @dividendgrowth
Great site https://roic.ai
The "classic" view is very similar to value line graphs that I always liked

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Lemur
Posts: 1612
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Location: USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold some $5.00 Puts on SOFI on margin about a month out (with the aim to close out at 50%). Collected a nice premium. I've not sold short puts for a long while but I feel like things are getting close to bottom for this stock. I watch this stock quite religiously so I believe I've a better feel on its fundamentals and how its going to move. Purchased more BNDW with the premium.

Adjusted my target allocation to now include VYM. Previously, my final allocation was VTI/VXUS/BNDW but I decided that a dividend income ETF deserves to be in this mix...this year has proven that its probably not a bad idea to include a mix of stable dividend stocks (see VYM, SCHD year-to-date performance compared to benchmark etfs).

To keep things simple, aiming for 25 % VTI - Vanguard Total US Stock Market ETF, 25 % VXUS - Vanguard Total International ETF, 25 % VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund (VYM), and 25 % BNDW - Vanguard Total World Bond ETF. So a lazy portfolio if you will.

tylerrr
Posts: 679
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:32 am
Location: Boston

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by tylerrr »

Lemur wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:40 pm
Sold some $5.00 Puts on SOFI on margin about a month out (with the aim to close out at 50%). Collected a nice premium. I've not sold short puts for a long while but I feel like things are getting close to bottom for this stock. I watch this stock quite religiously so I believe I've a better feel on its fundamentals and how its going to move. Purchased more BNDW with the premium.

Adjusted my target allocation to now include VYM. Previously, my final allocation was VTI/VXUS/BNDW but I decided that a dividend income ETF deserves to be in this mix...this year has proven that its probably not a bad idea to include a mix of stable dividend stocks (see VYM, SCHD year-to-date performance compared to benchmark etfs).

To keep things simple, aiming for 25 % VTI - Vanguard Total US Stock Market ETF, 25 % VXUS - Vanguard Total International ETF, 25 % VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund (VYM), and 25 % BNDW - Vanguard Total World Bond ETF. So a lazy portfolio if you will.
Nice and simple. I like it.

What is your withdraw rate?

tylerrr
Posts: 679
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:32 am
Location: Boston

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by tylerrr »

I'll keep DCA into BITCOIN, VTI, EDV, GDXJ, and small amount of cash.

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Lemur
Posts: 1612
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@tyler
viewtopic.php?p=223492#p223492

Haven’t calculated in a while but I’m still working and accumulating. I’m in a perpetual state of being around 5%.

tylerrr
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Location: Boston

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by tylerrr »

Lemur wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:54 pm
@tyler
viewtopic.php?p=223492#p223492

Haven’t calculated in a while but I’m still working and accumulating. I’m in a perpetual state of being around 5%.
nice...

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Seppia
Posts: 2016
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Things may be breaking

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:20 pm
Things may be breaking
Wdym?
ETA: oof that's a scary one on the EURUSD and probably not just there
ETA2: damn holy fuck first spike down got bought but it's selling off again should be fun when the markets open
Last edited by ertyu on Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

I'm just surprised that the market is acting surprised that the Fed is continuing to be hawkish...

Hoping for a short-term relief rally at least but VTI will probably hit a new 52-week low first. I'm in the middle of picking up pennies with an oncoming steam roller. Increased odds I'm gonna end up taking an L on this one but we'll see.

On the other hand, it may be time to start looking for opportunities...or keeping track of things of things on a screener. When AMD was above $100...did I wish it was back in the $60s....stuff like that. The only difference from then and now is that now I care about things like the P/E ratio and Yield. And overall re-studying financial economics a bit for a refresher...think my mind got boggled by post-modern investment curriculum. 2022 has sure been humbling. A whole generation grew up in a non-stop bull market. I still think about that now and then - at least for me, seeing the market in disarray is good experience.

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Seppia
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Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:30 pm
Wdym?
GBP collapsing, Yen collapsing, all non-usd currencies getting pummelled.
Fed powering forward while we are clearly in a recession already (just look at container rates for one example)

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:17 pm
GBP collapsing, Yen collapsing, all non-usd currencies getting pummelled.
Fed powering forward while we are clearly in a recession already (just look at container rates for one example)
except the rand, apparently, my south african colleagues were doing a cheer earlier haha

white belt
Posts: 1452
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:20 pm
Things may be breaking
Seppia wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:17 pm
GBP collapsing, Yen collapsing, all non-usd currencies getting pummelled.
Fed powering forward while we are clearly in a recession already (just look at container rates for one example)
The recent collapse of the GBP is due to the UK government announcing tax cuts and energy stimmies while they have 10% inflation. Although we've seen a bit of a retracement, the GBP is collapsing vs currencies other than just the USD. As Ertyu points out, there are a few currencies that have held up pretty well against the USD like the Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real. I agree that a strengthening dollar will wreck a lot of other economies due to the dollar's reserve currency status, which we've seen happen in previous global downturns.

There seem to be 2 camps when it comes to the economic outlook. On one side you have those who say we are already in a recession, inflation is transitory, bond yields have peaked, the Fed is pushing too far, etc etc. Most of those people have been banging that drum for the past few months and if they've made portfolio decisions based on that outlook, they've been crushed. I've listened to Raul Pal come on Real Vision Daily Briefing every 2 weeks for the past 3 months saying the same thing and he's been wrong every time.

Personally, I take the alternate view that yields have not yet peaked, even if we've seen unprecedented bond volatility this year. Although we might already be in a technical recession (2 quarters of negative [real] GDP growth), many of the forward leading indicators show that the economy is still growing, so we are not yet in an actual recession. Here are some data points:

-August ISM Manufacturing reading was 52.8 (anything over 50 indicates expansion)
-Retail Sales are still growing at a 5.9% rate, which is higher than the 3.4% pre-Covid average for 2015-2019
-10 year/3 month yield curve hasn't yet inverted, which is something that has happened prior to every recession that we have data for

It is true that the rate of growth is slowing, however the economy is/was running so hot that it will take at least a few more months for things to cool enough to hit contraction territory. Which means recession isn't a Q4 '22 as much as a Q1 '23 or later issue.

All that's to say that the Fed will likely continue on their path of QT because it will be months before the economy actually cools enough to justify a pivot. Good economic news is probably bad news for risk assets in the short to medium term. I agree that at some point something will break, I just don't think we are there yet.
Last edited by white belt on Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

In related news, my PSQ and RWM positions have finally gone positive again (5-10% profit at the moment). I think we have some more downside to go so I'll be holding on to them until I see more signs that a recession is priced in to markets. Despite the past few weeks of downward price action for equity indexes, I see no signs of capitulation that one would expect to see if a recession is fully priced in. VIX is still in reasonable range, positioning is not overly bearish despite bearish sentiment, and bad news is still causing large moves to the downside.

ETA: We are getting towards the end of the year, which means big money managers will be facing redemptions if they don't piece together some positive returns in Q4. This means you might see hedge funds and other institutional players putting on risky positions to try to generate Alpha and save their jobs, which could increase volatility. You also have the tax implications of a down year, which means we could see some more downward pressure if participants start harvesting losses in November/December.

ETA2: Bitcoin has been a a pretty good leading indicator for net liquidity and the SPX as a whole, so another leg lower on XBT might indicate that equities as a whole are about to move lower.

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Shorted LUNC at .0003. Aside from that, holding my btc/eth and lots of usd, some local money too.

sky
Posts: 1726
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:20 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by sky »

The market triggered my limit order and I bought some MMM today. This is a long term buy and hold position. I am tempted to get a job to be able to buy more dividend aristocrats at these yields.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

META

PE @ $8.78.
Earnings Yield 11.37%

I don't use social media anymore so I'm not up to date with what "Facebook" is up to lately but I can only gather from the headlines that basically META is a money-making machine but its CEO has gone mad with all-in investment on the Metaverse. So that's what is dragging its down along with concerns about growing competitors such as TikTok.

Anyone here looking at this stock as a turnaround pick?

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Slevin
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Slevin »

I've heard a good argument that META is all on in the metaverse because all the large scale ad competitors are building walled gardens from which META can't compete or play. Google builds phones and operating systems that can block out META tracking on the base level (look at the changes in privacy for chrome), and Apple is already doing that with iOS and . Firefox is back in the game purely based on being "pro privacy". So basically META sees itself losing ad value and data gathering ability, and that will be accelerating in the near future, so it's trying to become a hardware company to try and keep competitive ad being a Data broker. Also, Zuck is the majority stakeholder, so it isn't like the company can just fire him and replace him and keep on being just a large scale advertising platform.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Facebook is a declining social media that had its main way of doing money (for both FB and IG) castrated by a change in policy by Apple.
I think we will actually see the same coming from Google.
They spent billions and billions of usd to repurchase shares at 3x current valuation, and are now incinerating capital investing in something nobody seems to want or care about (except the founder, which everybody seems to despise).

Screams value trap for me

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Seppia wrote:
Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:42 am
I think we will actually see the same coming from Google.
Do you mean that google would go the way of meta or that google with throttle meta like apple? i don't follow tech

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