Investments Trade Log

[giskard]

I still believe these two companies are awesome. People should go read about NVO. They are extremely profitable and they are only serving 1 million Americans with their new obesity drug, while there are 100 million Americans who are obese (BMI 30+). The potential is huge.

I 100% agree w/ you on NVO. Been long it for years building a large position. The GLP1 situation is just icing on the cake now.

Additionally Lilly is a great one too. Both LLY and NVO look like hockey sticks now.

[thedollar]

As of this minute you have made $14,653.00. You can sell and live like JLF for two years.

Or I could almost buy two tickets to Superbowl at $8,600 per ticket or 3 tickets to a Swift concert at $3,801 each. Has the world gone mad? Seems like people or a number of people have become more spendy since these prices are working.

I 100% agree w/ you on NVO. Been long it for years building a large position. The GLP1 situation is just icing on the cake now.

Additionally Lilly is a great one too. Both LLY and NVO look like hockey sticks now.

Yup, Eli Lilly is also great, but I'm biased since I'm from Denmark. I think Novo will be quicker to ramp up production. Also, Novo has an awesome track record for returning almost 100% of profits. They pay their executives peanuts compared to Eli Lilly too. Lol, Elil Lilly is handing out 30-40% of their profits each year in sharebased compensation to employees while it's nearly nothing for Novo. I'd much rather be a Novo investor.

[Henry]

It's such an epic and historic event that I need to be a little bit in on it. Can they keep it up? When will it end? How will it end? We've never seen anything like this before.

NVDA passes GOOGL to become third largest US company.

[Smashter]

I love to imagine Henry swaggering around his neighborhood right now, high on NVIDIA earnings, devastating any old person that annoys him by informing them they will never be allowed on his yacht.

I have a coworker who tends to get carried away by hot investment trends just before they turn south. This happened during a crypto rally a couple years ago. He is currently very excited about NVIDIA. Today was the first mention of it on a work call. Possible bearish signal to monitor

[Henry]

Not (yet) at Elmer J. Fudd "I am a millionaire. I own a mansion and a yacht." status, but we did splurge on an extra pound of chicken wings at our local inn today (even the fact that those Mothereffers did not provide corresponding increase in blue cheese did not bother me) and there admittedly was an added glint in my daily dispensation of elderly eye fucking. A CNBC commentator made the point that NVDA buyers are five years late to the party which is exactly when I bought the bulk of our shares. They have 14x to 16x. The real spike to yesterday's earnings came after the greatest of all men who has ever lived and shall ever live until the AI bubble bursts and I am too old to recover Jensen Huang reminded/sold people that NVDA is an infrastructure stock. The question being asked is, using CSCO during the internet period as an analog, is this 1994 or 1998. I have not bought since 2021 and do not plan on buying more but I am committed to the ride for the time being.

[thedollar]

Guess Henry just reretired. Are you still with us @henry?

Anyway, is it a bubble if you owned the stock but are still experiencing FOMO?

Now we just need the TSLA comeback of '24 once the market realises what's going on.

[giskard]

Now we just need the TSLA comeback of '24 once the market realises what's going on.

Yes please. Elon needs to start pumping it and talking about how Tesla is an AI stock.

Related: a lot of the AI crypto tokens are starting to run. I am long these: Worldcoin, Render network, Nosana, Akash, Filecoin.

[delay]

I have a coworker who tends to get carried away by hot investment trends just before they turn south. This happened during a crypto rally a couple years ago. He is currently very excited about NVIDIA. Today was the first mention of it on a work call. Possible bearish signal to monitor

A familiar thought! When colleagues talk about a stock it feels like it must have peaked. The pool of new money to draw in must be emptying.

Then I remembered a colleague from 2019 talking about having made a killing with Apple. That sounded like a very bearish signal to me. I said I wouldn' stick to investments after having made a killing, because the hype would surely pass. Well... Apple is now worth four times as much as in 2019.

That doesn't mean the bear signal is wrong. It just confirms that the average investor does not have access to signals that allow him to predict the market.

[Seppia]

Yes please. Elon needs to start pumping it and talking about how Tesla is an AI stock.

I would personally not be comfortable owning a stock where this is the investment thesis.
Be careful out there, using normal car company metrics TSLA would be overvalued at $20.
I have detested Musk/Tesla for many years now* so I’m not the most objective observer here, but I’m fairly certain of how this one ends (with Tesla crashing back to earth and staying there). Just not sure of the timing.
For now, I’ll just observe that the stock has gone nowhere in 3 years.

*how could anybody take the guy seriously? My realization came with the solar tiles fraudulent presentation, when he used Tesla to bail out the failing Solar City.
In general, Elon has not delivered on any of his promises/pumps in… I don’t know, 8 years?
FSD is an obvious scam, the semi is non existent, the cyber truck is a complete mess, he has introduced a “robot” using a dancer in latex and doctored videos, he has admitted that dojo (one of his last AI pumps) is a POS.
His managerial ability is on full display on Twitter, which has now 10x the bots it used to have and has managed to lose users when the only alternative is a shitty Zuck app.
Icing on the cake is the “I just sold a shit ton of my stock but please hand me more or I’ll walk away with the ball”.

Oh and I forgot that he is basically a junkie now (did you watch the interview with Sorkin? The one where he told advertisers to go F themselves)

From a shareholder perspective, the reddest of red flags at Tesla are 1/ they developed their own ERP in house 2/ the inexplicably super high account receivable line.

[Henry]

I am not exactly sure how much of the recent NVDA rise and the TSLA corresponding fall has to do with the polar opposite Huang vs. Musk how to be/play a corporate titan/genius/techno-prophet but I think its safe to say it has played some role. I'm not sure Elon coming out and saying anything at this point would help. There still seems to be a Menlo Park analog to TSLA so for that reason alone I'm hanging in. Not sure about adding though.

[Lemur]

Sold off my 7000 shares of SoFI at $8.53. Small profit with cost basis at $8.37 but I ran covered calls for a few weeks. Split the money equally between JEPI, JEPQ, and SCHD. All in my brokerage. That was my last stock. I'm all in on ETFs and other Index funds. Split between USA etfs, International etfs, Value etfs, Intermediate Treasury etfs, and Dividend/Income ETFs.

I'll be watching stock prices curiously from the sidelines.

[urgud]

Lemur: it was exciting, exhilarating even, to read about your adventures with stocks in your journal. Did you by any chance keep a total tally to see what the yearly returns ended up being? I'm a little curious about the focus on dividend-paying ETFs in this recent purchase as well: are these advantageous tax-wise compared to accumulating ETFs in the US?

[Lemur]

Hard to get exact numbers but VTI (my benchmark) returned 25.17% annually in the past 7 years (source: https://compound.mywallst.com/compound- ... VTI/100/7/) meanwhile my brokerage account shows a performance of 15.30% in the same time frame. Not counting taxes I paid for realized gains. I would've been much better off in index funds from the beginning. No regrets for the experience...at least now I understand better why I have the allocation that I do now. Total performance isn't so much my goal now as making sure that the cash flows from yields can cover our expenses for the next 60ish years. I've an allocation now that should help keep our money preserved from multiple market conditions. Luckily all my retirement accounts, 401(k)s, and such had index funds so I didn't blunder those over the years as well .

Biggest blunders: Being bullish on semi-conductors but then selling them all before they rallied. AMD I made big money on but should've held even longer. Wasting a lot of time dancing in and out of SoFI stock. I was once down 90% but held that until breakeven. Felt good to come out unscathed but also a tough lesson.

Generally U.S. has favorable tax treatment compared to other countries but I'm no expert here. I do know that controlling for income is important though to stay out of certain marginal tax rates. Easy for the ERE person no doubt.

ETA: SoFi up nearly 7% the day after I sell. As is tradition lmao.

[Henry]

First post-Munger BRKB interesting. Exceeded earnings but Warren states that they are too big to do anything and boom days are over.

[giskard]

I would personally not be comfortable owning a stock where this is the investment thesis.
Be careful out there, using normal car company metrics TSLA would be overvalued at $20.

TSLA only trades on vibes. Don't overthink it, buy when vibes are low, sell when vibes are high. Soon its going to be time to buy with both fists maybe.

[giskard]

Buying small amounts of Solana meme coins:

- "Jeo Boden" - $BODEN
- $RETARDIO
- $HARAMBE

[giskard]

Buying small amounts of Solana meme coins:

- "Jeo Boden" - $BODEN
- $RETARDIO
- $HARAMBE

Update: These all went up 5x to 0.5x in value, and proceeded to nuke 50-75% from there

[ertyu]

Update: These all went up 5x to 0.5x in value, and proceeded to nuke 50-75% from there

Over 2 days? Amazing

[Lemur]

Is there a VIBES^ index?

Funny thing is this day and age that might be a legitimate question.

[thedollar]

Things are so weird these days.

Bitcoin - we've never seen anything like it - will it go to 1 mill or $0?

We are now in "greed" down from "extreme greed" and the market is higher than ever. Macro economics looking full of risk. A lot of huge stocks have extremely high P/Es when looking at last year but fairly OK / only "expensively" priced when looking at forward P/Es.

NVDA P/E: 75
NVDA Forward P/E: 40

NVO P/E: 48
NVO Forward P/E: 39

Chipotle P/E: 65
Chipotle Forward P/E: 54 (who's buying a restaurant business at these prices?! - that's bubbly)

Compared to those you have Taiwan Semiconductor Man. Co. (TSM) at a P/E of 26?! That's insane. You got extremely fast growing Pinduoduo / TEMU at a P/E of 29?! That's so cheap compared to everything else.

Even 40 or let's say 30 P/Es are still extremely high compared to the historical average. I just read Peter Lynch's book written before Japan's stock market declined from the 90's. He said he kept going to Japan but couldn't figure out how they priced the stocks because they were so expensive - however, they just kept going up. If that's what we are in for because we are willing to accept these P/Es there's a world of pain coming for a lot of people. Can't even imagine what 30 years of a declining US stock market would do to the economy/us.

MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor, that's a completely different ballgame. He uses his stock's momentum to raise cash to buy more bitcoin creating more demand for bitcoin inflating his own stock price. That's insane. He's basically cornering the market.

Anyway I don't dare to sell aanything atm, not even MicroStrategy lol