Investments Trade Log

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C40
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

How much of DWAC is Truth Social? Is it accurate to say the app has bombed? ( https://www.statista.com/statistics/129 ... loads-app/ ) But I guess there is a waitlist to download the app, which was at some point 400,000 users long. (?) that's odd.

I can see the potential in making a new platform for Trump and guys like him to say whatever they want - and maybe 50 million Americans would join just for that purpose (and more from other countries). But it also seems likely that it gets over-run and turned into a shit-show, both by fringe elements of it's intended audience, and other folks like kids from 4chan

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold PLUG Power and broke-even on long position. Added to VTI & VXUS in equal amounts.

Humanofearth
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Got a 7x long on btc. Liq around 33, lower than the liquidation wick on invasion day. Can’t imagine markets getting more anxiously uncertain than that day.

Nukes & WW3 didn’t happen. Worst to come is an interest rate increase lower than 25% of m2 and stopping asset repurchases, this’ll be contrasted with stimulus to offset the suffering due to increased gas prices for the citizens in welfare states and they’ll vote on the self custodied ponzis rather than the ponzis that can’t be verified and aren’t in one’s direct control. May add to if prices approach invasion day prices, may lower past 50’s and definitely lower around 60’s, lest my greed get the better of me, again.

plantingtheseed
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by plantingtheseed »

C40 wrote:
Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:45 am
How much of DWAC is Truth Social? Is it accurate to say the app has bombed? ( https://www.statista.com/statistics/129 ... loads-app/ )
It's still early to tell, but market seems to be pretty clear so far. The company's profile says a lot. :lol:

"Digital World Acquisition Corp. does not have significant operations. It intends to effect a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses in the technology, SaaS, fintech, or financial services sector in the Americas. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Miami, Florida."

Thinking in terms of soft drinks, it's hard to gain an entry into a market already dominated by Coke and Pepsi. Just because one likes a specific soft drink, doesn't mean that the rest of the world will. This was an easy call for those outside of the bubble mentality, as reflected in the current stock price.

I'm sure it will stabilize at a perceived fair value at some point. I intend to continue shorting until then.

Humanofearth
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Added to my longs. About 30% of my assets in lev longs on btc at 7x & 5x (liq around 33k) and 3x some rune, eth, luna, and avax. Up enough to pay 2 months expenses in a few hours. Don’t know how I took so long to experiment with leverage.

I failed at nfts, shorts, and small caps. Even when I found good projects, my psychology rekt me but I came out profitable in the end thanks to luck on Jewel, which I exited a while ago but not before a 50% drop, then took most profits before another 50% drop and I exited, then came another 40% drop.

Realized I feel and work better with low amounts of leverage in high liquidity positions. Will take profits in the 50’s and 60’s. By take profits, I mean lower leverage on some positions and move some to my safe Cold Card.

Humanofearth
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Holy…. best trade of my life so far. Up 5 years of expenses in a day. Still thinking btc at 46, 52, and 69 are the profit taking pts. Eth/btc at .1,.12, and .14. Liq point on btc just under 34 and eth just under 2.2, so levels not since last summer. Higher lows and higher highs keep developing in year long time frames.

Avax has the subnets narrative and will vacuum liquidity while eth has the zk and merger narratives developing. Luna has the strongest stable coin backing it while rune is a play on decentralized exchange between coins.

Take profits means lower leverage and move to spot btc. Will keep fiat around 3 months expenses in a local bank account, western fiat at around 2 weeks expenses.

plantingtheseed
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by plantingtheseed »

This will be my last post.

I usually do not post my trades but I felt that I wanted to give something back to the community. For those that followed, it is my sincerest hope that they were of some benefit.


One of the earliest lessons in trading that I have learned is to discount and guard against "experts", especially the self-declared.

One can easily spot them because they will usually start off with a grandiose introduction of their background or resume and a faux aura of self-importance.

I guess maybe in a way I'm doing the same, but in hopes that you will not make the same mistake that I did.


Back in the 90's I had done my due diligence in researching gold and concluded that gold was severely undervalued. It was my intention to purchase gold with everything I had in the mid $200's (oz) but thought maybe I should check with the financial "experts" first.

I went around town and asked the question to these experts and to put it bluntly, they all laughed. Gold is worthless they said. I came back deflated, and never made the purchase. It eventually shot up to $1,800 (oz).

Some of these places, don't exist anymore.


As with any institution, the market is a herd. It exists in a bubble. And it is the originality that often sets one apart. The only way that I know of having originality, is to work it out yourself. There is no free lunch.

The experts are no better in predicting the future.


The world is changing again. I guess wisdom really does come from experience. Because knowing when to hold or knowing when to fold fairly correctly comes from having made a lot of mistakes.

In the next world, early retirement will not be practical. In the brief illusory sub 2% (real ~4%) inflation world yes. We've somehow managed to pull it off for good 7 decades or so. But not in the 7.9% world.


I don't think I would enjoy retiring early in a world full of wage slaves. It would be a world filled with unhappy servers at restaurants. Businesses would be overflowing with disgruntled workers that do not care about their jobs.

World would be full of anger, resentment and despair. A world of half truths, where bullies thrive and reason gives away. People couldn't careless about right or wrong. And People wouldn't have hope.


I would much prefer to experience retirement in a world where people looked at you with a smile, took pride in their work, would dream of their future and were happy to be around in each other's company.

A utopia you say? This was the 70's and the 80's. Just about everyone was middle class. Millionaires were rare. We've had the same problems, but people were happier and life was better.


Good luck in your journey.

Humanofearth
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

Took some profits on some longed btc, from 5x to 3x. Liq now around 31-32k. Up so much. Taking half profits out into spot btc in the 45-52 range. All to spot around 60

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Yet another one of my positions was (will be) bought up and disappear. Thanks Warren :-P

This trend is annoying. The number of publicly registered companies is going down as companies merge and consolidate. At least this transaction is cash-based rather than based on ZIRP debt.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 1:01 pm
Yet another one of my positions was (will be) bought up and disappear. Thanks Warren :-P

This trend is annoying. The number of publicly registered companies is going down as companies merge and consolidate. At least this transaction is cash-based rather than based on ZIRP debt.
Kuppy had a blog post about a similar topic a few weeks ago, except his gripe was with PE swooping in and buying value stocks that he has large long term positions in: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022 ... ying-risk/

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

The 2s10s inverted yesterday
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 9:57 pm
Prepare for adversity and insanity
Image


Image


Image





plantingtheseed wrote:
Sat Mar 19, 2022 6:09 am
Good luck in your journey.
And for you in yours, if you really go.

plantingtheseed
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by plantingtheseed »

Sold 3/4 of DWAC for a quick profit. (~+70k) Leaving rest for a free ride. Good luck ERE, this is the last.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Bought more SOFI because way too oversold but I'm also averaging down still.

WFJ
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by WFJ »

Be careful on the long side, market is teetering on low volumes, which are making markets subject to major moves.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@WFJ.

Agree but continuing to add small amounts every paycheck to my SOFI position. "Be greedy when others are fearful" etc. etc. There was some insider buying recently (could just be a PR move by the CEO) which lends some confidence.

But also feels like I'm catching a falling knife too.

Tough to say. FinTech is a volatile monster...

The solace I take is that if I think in terms of a "10 year time horizon " then SOFI just feels like a no brainer with its growth and the fact that either this quarter or next, it will be net positive for income for the first time I believe. Once a stock has a couple of quarters of net profits, then usually big institutional money starts flowing in - and that is what I'm counting on.

WFJ
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by WFJ »

I don't know anything specific about Sofi beyond they named the multi-billion dollar stadium in SoCal. If you look back at the dotcom bust, naming sports stadiums and Super Bowls ads (see crypto this year) were the clearest signal that the bubble was bursting. In a market where there will probably be one winner (Defi/FINTECH) picking that winner is incredibly risky. The only moat for Fintech is hiring competent programmers, that's it.

My experience with some of the "disruptive" finance platforms is the only disruptions is that they convince naive investors of "disruptions" through advertising and when analyzed, provide subpar services at higher costs compared to the big three discount brokers (Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard).

Humanofearth
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Humanofearth »

20% my portfolio in 3x lev btc at the moment. 80-85% in safe assets now (btc & eth). Realizing I do better focused on these than on small caps.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Fun fact is BRK-B is up 10.59% YTD compared to VTI which is down ~11% YTD.

Edit: Bought another $1.2k of SOFI today. Average Cost Per Share now at $14.03. Started averaging down since the stock starting falling at the start of the year .... Interestingly, this stock is nearly trading at its book value per share of $5.29 by most recent quarter. Crazy that this stock is almost at a value where it is pricing zero growth....

Earnings Date is May 10.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

On SoFi, are the yahoo numbers wrong?
Because they say the stock, at $6, is valued 6x revenues, has a net debt that’s like 3.5x revenues, negative cash flow, and negative margins.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Seppia

No that is right. $14.03 is my personal cost basis per share. I’m way down and need more than 100% gain to break even. :? I don’t sell because I do believe SOFI can recover or just become a takeover target. Also less than 5% of my portfolio anyway so I just don’t have the need to rush or anything. I’ll wait it out.

Book value is $5.29. “Book value per share (BVPS) is the ratio of equity available to common shareholders divided by the number of outstanding shares. This figure represents the minimum value of a company's equity and measures the book value of a firm on a per-share basis.” Debatable how useful this metric is but is one of many gauges for valuation - especially when compared to competition.

But anyway…the stock itself is trading at $6.21.

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