Investments Trade Log

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prudentelo
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by prudentelo »

I'm not suggesting that this is a bottom or that it is not a bear market

I suggest that stock at current PEs look like a better investments than other bad investments (cash, bonds) for a long term non-levered investor, like most of us here

Even tech stocks (PEs posted above)

thedollar
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

10 yr treasury rate decreased from 2.99% in beginning of May to 2.74% now.

What's up? Inflation top nearing? Outflow from stocks to bonds pressuring bond prices? Expectation of changed Fed plan?

The current fear in the market could soon disappear.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

thedollar wrote:
Sun May 29, 2022 1:42 pm
What's up? Inflation top nearing? Outflow from stocks to bonds pressuring bond prices? Expectation of changed Fed plan?
"Inflation might not be as bad as feared" is the most trending narrative I've seen over the past week. If true, the Fed plan should change accordingly. I can't imagine US politicians being too happy with high short term rates since that's essentially how they (re)fund the debt and debt/GPD>1 so growing the economy out of the debt at anything higher than 3ish% is nearly impossible at this stage of financialization.

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unemployable
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by unemployable »

I love how people think sub-3% interest rates are "high".

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

I've been taking some risk off the table during the (IMO bull trap) rallies over the past few days. Currently sitting on a lot of cash which I may use to buy more RWM and PSQ, or perhaps some puts on individual tech stocks if the opportunity presents itself (e.g. if we get more significant rallies). I fear I may be too early for my puts on AAPL and TSLA, but that's why I bought them longer dated since my previous trading experience tells me I'm usually early rather than late on trends.

Crypto has also had a few rallies that I sold some of my ADA, BTC, and ETH into. Took a huge haircut on ADA (-75%) and smaller haircuts on BTC (-30%) and ETH (-43%). I still own BTC and ETH positions with limit orders if there is a larger rally. I like the long term bull case for crypto, I just feel like the QT/recession probability means that I will be able to buy back in at much lower prices. For my trading portfolio, I feel much more comfortable taking macro risks on puts rather than holding on long to assets that I feel like are going to get hammered over the coming months. I also sold a small position in BLDR (~1k cost basis) for a 10% profit. I'm uncertain about the home builder narrative at this point and also believe I will be able to get it at a bargain if I try to enter new positions.

candide
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by candide »

@white belt
Are you aiming for a certain percentage of your portfolio (or percentage of your active portfolio) to be crypto?

I've set up my portfolio to be one or two decisions a week while the household is in baby mode.

20% long vol positions (TAIL and VXZ) in my Roth. That way if there is some large draw-downs my protection doesn't become a huge taxable event just to look like I am breaking even.

Selling those positions which had been in a taxable account leaves me with 20% cash right now. Again, motivated more by not wanting to mess with it too much than anything else, I am going to DCA into VYM in the taxable account.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

candide wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:54 pm
20% long vol positions (TAIL and VXZ) in my Roth. That way if there is some large draw-downs my protection doesn't become a huge taxable event just to look like I am breaking even.
I hold some crypto as part of my macro portfolio, but at the moment I'm trying to reduce my positioning. Some of the technical analysis I've seen indicates a possible floor on BTC at <20k and ETH at <1k if bear market trends continue, which is a long way down from where we are now. Crypto has traded like a pure risk-on asset for this entire cycle, which leads me to believe we are not at a point of it decoupling from traditional risk assets.

Have the long vol positions worked this year? We've seen a large downward trend in equity indexes, but it seems volatility has stayed relatively low because of how orderly things have been. I don't own any of the vol ETFs, but I do have some long vol exposure with my puts on megacap tech names.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by candide »

@white belt

I bought into them in increments, so it looks pretty close to a wash.

Still, happy to realize that if they pop, I don't want them to do so in a taxable account.

thedollar
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

I think the cpi coming out tomorrow will bring more clarity. Could cause a lot of volatility though because it is still unclear if inflation is accelerating. I've sold a few of my positions.

I've seen some investment/collectables decreasing a lot in price recently and it also seems like the property market is lot less active due to higher interest rates. Fed Beige Book also had a few indications of inflation slowing.

It doesn't seem like there are layoffs happening atm so either this crisis won't be that bad or otherwise we are very early. I always wondered if I would have been able to detect the financial crisis coming. Now it seems so obvious that we are at the beginning of a crisis - but on the other hand I'm not so sure? It feels more like we will have a long period (like 5 or 10 yrs) of the economy/market just moving sideways.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

thedollar wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:07 pm
I always wondered if I would have been able to detect the financial crisis coming. Now it seems so obvious that we are at the beginning of a crisis - but on the other hand I'm not so sure?
This is the rub with actively trading/investing. You're going to have to deal with feeling like you're wrong and everyone telling you that you're an idiot. Sometimes for a long time. Hindsight is always 20/20 but at moments of inflection there is never consensus in financial markets.

Edit: See my earlier posts in this thread about my RSX trade for a prime example. Or re-watch the Big Short for real world examples from people who are actually good traders.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by unemployable »

thedollar wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:07 pm
I always wondered if I would have been able to detect the financial crisis coming.
I saw it coming. There were several shots across the bow in 2007, and perhaps my line of work at the time (meeting with hedge fund managers) afforded me somewhat of a front-row seat. I was well positioned for it and would've liked it to have been a little worse, like with house prices down more and for longer.

Recessions strike me as self-fulfilling prophecies. The more people talk and worry about having one the more likely it is to happen. And people have been talking about it a LOT more in the last few months.

I don't have a good feel for what's going to blow up first or most spectacularly, but I strongly believe something will. It might not be purely economic in nature; consider, for example, the 1980 presidential election as a referendum on the 1970s inflation and oil crises, or 1932 if you lean the other way.

prudentelo
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by prudentelo »

https://www.tweedy.com/resources/gvf/Fa ... 220331.pdf

Thinking about this fund

It seems to take on the investment ideas espoused here, and by others I respect

Past performance is very good especially when considering it comes out with relatively low PE, low leverage, IR-resistant companies. Quite close to SP500 roaring bull market performance.

xmj
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by xmj »

from that same doc:
Total Annual Fund Operating Expense Ratios( 2 ) ( 3 )
As of 03/31/2021: 1.38% (gross); 1.37% (net)
As of 03/31/2022: 1.38% (gross); 1.34% (net)
be aware how much you give up to participate in that fund.

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unemployable
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by unemployable »

Wow, TBGVX. I've owned it for some 20 years, and it's now the only actively managed fund I own. It's done OK relative to an all-world index but not to a US index. You're going to have European market beta whether you like it or not.

They do hedge back their currency exposure, so will outperform (again relative to the world) when the USD is strong.

Even with the fees, assuming I would have put the money into international stocks anyway, I'm not sure I would've done better going passive.

If this is your kind of thing and you want active management, look at OAKLX too.
Last edited by unemployable on Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

WFJ
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by WFJ »

xmj wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:49 am
from that same doc:


be aware how much you give up to participate in that fund.
+1. This fund will only enrich the managers at the expense of the investors.

prudentelo
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by prudentelo »

unemployable wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:43 am
Even with the fees, assuming I would have put the money into international stocks anyway, I'm not sure I would've done better going passive.
Also my feeling.

While giving some "diversification" from passive "paradigm"/"cult"/"coordination"

I don't feel that 1.2% fees for a fund with actual management decision and trading fees is a scam. Maybe a bad deal, maybe not, but not a certain scam. @WFJ (though I often agree with your posts)

For better or worse I am an intl investor

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Not all international exposure is created equal. Personally, I think Europe faces the exact same macro issues as the USA, just with much more worse demographics and growth prospects. Inflation is hitting Europe harder and the ECB has much fewer options than the Fed (basically the option is to raise rates and send Southern Europe into another debt crisis, or keep rates low and send all of Europe into another political crisis). The track record is not great for politicians that come to power during periods of high inflation in Europe. And of course Europe has big energy problems.

Other places like South America, India, China, the ME, or east Asia might fare better. I made the bull case for China over the next 12 months or so earlier in this thread but I haven’t yet put on any positions. My point is that I’m skeptical of anyone that uses international as a blanket term and mumbles something about “diversification.” The macro outlooks for the different regions are quite divergent and will become even more so if the de-globalization trend continues.

prudentelo
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by prudentelo »

Sure. Fund linked just invests globally, doesn't aim to invest proportionally in all countries (shown in holdings in the link I gave)

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by unemployable »

white belt wrote:
Sat Jun 11, 2022 3:34 pm
My point is that I’m skeptical of anyone that uses international as a blanket term and mumbles something about “diversification.” The macro outlooks for the different regions are quite divergent and will become even more so if the de-globalization trend continues.
You know what? I agree and have said so ("Europe is a continent-sized value trap"). Just be aware you're arguing for active management.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

The S&P500 finally hit the bear marker.

DowJones: -17.4% (correction)
S&P500: -22.2% (bear)
NASDAQ: -32.8% (bear)

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