Investments Trade Log

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Jason

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Elon Musk has the ingenuity of Thomas Alva Edison but the personality of P.T. Barnum. What other corporate titan is up on the stand parsing out exactly what he meant by "pedo guy" while his company stock soars. I thought often of buying the stock but never did and now I semi-regret it.

ertyu
Posts: 1182
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

TSLA 430 -> 413 overnight, coulda woulda shoulda

oh well

took profits on GDX @31

Looking to re-enter - curious: what price would you re-enter at? I have a tendency to overshoot, e.g. set a buy order for 26 then wonder why we never get there.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1350
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

“Why We Have No Heroes”

Or

“Shameless Tone-Deaf Apologia for Central Bankers Made in Anticipation of Collapse Caused by Central Bankers”

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we-h ... -ray-dalio
Ray Dalio wrote:Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi were each faced with existential debt crises that came to them because of what others before them did and that would have led to deflationary depressions and social and political disasters if they didn’t buck the cynics and politicians to make the controversial, unconventional moves that returned the world economy to non-inflationary growth. I watched their every move closely every day so I saw the decisions they made, the strains they were under, the fights they needed to have, and the personal attacks they had to endure in order to bring about stability.

While these moves averted past disasters, we are still faced with large debts and non-debt obligations (like pensions and health care) and growing deficits, so there are storms brewing. Now central bankers have less effective monetary tools and will have to coordinate with polarized politicians who have to agree on taxes, spending, and regulations. Most likely the challenges ahead will be harder rather than easier. If we keep treating the heroes the way we are treating them, we might not have any when we need them the most.

That’s my greatest worry as well as the greatest injustice.
Go fuck yourself Ray.

thedollar
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:00 am
They are a structurally bankrupt company with extremely shaky accounting to say the least*, headed by a lying fraudster**, so there’s that.
But Q4 is going to come in relatively big on the back of subsidies ending in the Netherlands (the model 3 has been the top selling car in the country), and Tesla has an army of completely irrational fanboys (and some shady cheerleaders who are at the same time pumping the stock and dumping shares - see ARK investing) pushing the stock up.

I wouldn’t touch the stock with a 10 foot pole.



*See this thread and look up the follow up from Einhorn
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/11 ... 66561?s=21

**see the current Solar City derivatives trial, see the completely made up claims - 1000000 robotaxis, “full self driving” -, see the completely idiotic products he comes up with and nobody in the news media call him up for - the underground tunnels!
It really is amazing
Looking just at current fundamentals (except the extreme growth rate) Tsla is definitely not worth current market cap. Such a view would imply the assumption that the world is mostly static and never changes. That is in my view a false assumption. Just to state my point 20 years ago there was no Instagram, Facebook, iPhone, Twitter, Snapchat, Tinder, Android, Youtube, bitcoin, Spotify....... All things that have changed the world.

The world is ever-changing and current companies will fail while a few new will dominate. There are three things I look for when trying to evaluate investments that could possibly dominate the market place in the future:
  • Rate of innovation
  • Ability to hit
  • Moat / competitive sustainable advantage
It's become clear with latest electric car models from traditional automakers that Tesla is ahead and has an efficiency/range/charging advantage. Next year they are rumored to introduce a 1 million mile battery/drivetrain leaping ahead of everyone and everything. They are changing how cars are produced with the new Cybertruck. Traditional manufacturing will become obsolete due to the low cost of producing the truck. The Model 3 is the car of the year in several European countries.They are delivering an awesome product right now while main competitors have delayed competing vehicles (ID3 and EQC).

Seppia
Posts: 1465
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I’m not sure I’d call this an “extreme growth rate”
https://images.app.goo.gl/ChAmd9xdwv18Zpsr5

In mature markets such as Norway (considered to be the most advanced in terms of EV acceptance), the model 3 is getting slaughtered

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/11/03/nor ... di-e-tron/

As for the rumors about the battery I’d point out that
1- Tesla doesn’t make their batteries (Panasonic does), so no edge.
2- they are not exactly stellar in respecting timelines

As for “Changing how cars are produced”, it seems irrealistic. I’d be surprised to learn how a famously inefficient company that has lost money every single year of its existence can come up with a substantially better way of making cars than established, profitable companies that have been doing it for decades.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but with the history of BS Musk has, I’d request a little more details.

thedollar
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Revenue:
2017: 11,759 USDm
2018: 21,461 USDm

That's pretty extreme in my book.

Mature market sales/deliveries... The cars are shipped to Europe every quarter that's why you'll see some months with bursts of Tesla sales in Norway and other European countries. Probably Tesla is also prioritizing Netherlands over Norway atm due to incentives disappearing. By the way Model 3 is car of the year in Norway!

Battery cells currently produced by Panasonic - true - but they are going to take over production according to earnings call this summer: https://electrek.co/2019/06/12/tesla-ba ... well-tech/

You might doubt their ability to come up with a substantially better way of making cars but it's right there!! Look at the cybertruck - there's no stamping involved.

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Dream of Freedom
Posts: 553
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Started a small position in HCKT @16.02. Long term investment. Will probably be buying more.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Terrible execution this morning. I saw the price move back and forth through(*) my limit orders twice before getting filled.

(*) This is technically(**) and legally not supposed to happen because of Regulation NMS. So likely means that when I hit the submit button for an order, it is not actually submitted to the market but rather some internal routing/matching widget.
(**) It can technically happen but the broker will be fined/expected to make up the losses for not executing at the national best price.

That is the actual price of those $0 commissions.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

My uber-wealthy friend recently transferred some shares of a stock (over $100,000) as gifts to multiple parties. A few days later he noticed that his broker had sold/transferred the wrong shares-those acquired at a higher price. I witnessed him pick up the phone and instantly have this error corrected. Is that normal level service?

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

@7wb5 - It's expected service (it's happened to me too once with the broker eating their error after I pointed it out), but I don't know if it's normal. Especially not with these cheap-ass online "brokers".

ertyu
Posts: 1182
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

thedollar wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:57 am
I have the opposite problem... someone should tell me not to increase my tsla holdings :D :roll:
congrats man shit's gone parabollic hope you catch the top alright and get out on time

thedollar
Posts: 159
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

ertyu wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:50 am
congrats man shit's gone parabollic hope you catch the top alright and get out on time
Thanks... I'm not good at catching tops or bottoms which is why I've been changing my strategy to 1) never sell and 2) slowly move all investments towards index funds / tracking indexes.

Also, I'm most likely one of those irrational fanboys mentioned by Seppia which is why I won't be selling my tsla stock at all. I'll hold it til death or bankruptcy - whichever comes first. I think you are right though that there'll be some kind of correction short-term.

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 452
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@thedollar... you could always go the middle route by selling TSLA to get your original investment back, but let your profits ride for the long haul = you won't lose money and you still have option for "to the moon".

thedollar
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

@black_son_of_gray... Thanks for the advice. I'm probably delusional but I think there is a chance that the stock could hit 1 trillion market cap during the 20s. Even after a crazy run-up like this it looks cheap to me (I know, I know! :shock: :? ). So in essence I don't want to sell shares, I actually want to buy more. I'll compromise and just keep what I have.

ertyu
Posts: 1182
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

dude you give me anxiety just by existing lmao good luck hope it works out.

Edit 1/8: dear lord, 480 bucks pre-market, I don't even own it and I'm getting the heebie-jeebies
Last edited by ertyu on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

Jason

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Seppia wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:56 am
It feels like there may be some additional ugly news on Boeing, trade carefully
Can someone just give me one death by electrical car malfunction to take this shit off the front page. Like a pregnant woman on her way to the emergency room. Or one of the Democratic Presidential nominees. One of the old ones who can afford an electric car. I don't think its that much to ask. Maybe they'll catch a break and it will turn out to be terrorism but damn an exploding phone and some random douche suffers some burns on his ballsack but a product like this its just so magnified.

Edit: This stock seems to have more bounce than a fat guy who fell out of one of their 737's. I have to think that a company that killed 176 innocent people only to have a one day stock drop might have some moat. If this was Beyond Meat or Baby Yoda or some cancer treatment situation I'd have to think this shit would have dived faster than one of their planes. And my condolences to anyone who may have had a loved one on board one of these flights although I hope you get seriously hosed on the settlement.

Edit Redux: Well, it turns out it was in fact an accident, but the accident turns out to be Iran's fault not Boeing's. Now I'm not sure how one accidentally shoots a missile into a plane. Where does the accident lie? Was it the wrong airplane? Or did someone lean accidentally lean on a button and the missile just so happened to hit a plane. I'm thinking they had enough time to blow it up before it hit something so maybe they didn't realize they had launched one. Who knows with those crazy Iranians. Being that it's an Iranian Missile, on an American airplane filled with Ukrainian passengers the timing does seem a little odd. This has Rudy written all over it. Maybe this whole Iranian war concoction was to prop up Boeing which would be fucking great for us shareholders. Nike and Apple have sweat shops. Boeing has sacrificial passengers. All in the game. Any ways, stock is up slightly more than $1 since I bought in.

Lucky C
Posts: 586
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

I don't understand what happened today. The market closed in the red without a report of trade setbacks or Middle East conflict escalation? CNBC said something about disappointing jobs data but I know that's not supposed to matter :P

Bought some TAIL to add on to my exhausted-with-this-bull-run hedging. Usually a terrible idea when the market is making new highs but I believe there are valid reasons, when looking "under the hood" of the market and economy, to expect a decent pull-back in the short term that warrants putting a few percent into such hedges.

I like TAIL as a hedging option in Vanguard since it is commission free and should in theory be a slightly better option than SH which isn't even allowed on Vanguard any more. Also has decent volume / low spread unlike some other Cambria ETFs. The downside would be the expense ratio, higher capital needed, and inability to choose precisely what options you think you would be best, vs. making the same type of bet by just picking your own individual SPY puts. The advantage is if you don't quite know what you're doing when it comes to buying SPY puts, the Cambria guys can probably do a better job picking & buying more when they're cheap (when volatility is low).

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »


thedollar
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

@Seppia

Very interesting indeed.

There is no doubt that Elon Musk has lied on several occasions (420 funding secured, Solar City merger). The document contains a lot of information on Musk and honestly - reading the conclusion - it seems to be mostly an attempt of character assassination. Just because the CEO has lied, smoked pot and so on I don't think that you can conclude that Tesla must be a fraud.

It's not like they are making a specific claim backed by evidence like: "Tesla only delivered 300,000 cars last year despite reporting 360,000". That would be huge. These are just random (but interesting!) facts on Tesla and Musk to back a conclusion saying that the company is a fraud.

I was a little taken back by the suggestion that Musk might have cancer. I cannot seem to find any information suggesting that doing a quick search. I guess if it is really true and it came to light the stock would take a hit.

Seppia
Posts: 1465
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Explosive growth
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N

"One can assume that Tesla has hit peak performance in the U.S. because they have not exceeded their 2018 results for five months now," said Shane Marcum, vice-president of Cross-Sell.

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