zbigi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:35 am
On the other hand, coal is cheapest and most carbon intensive source of energy, so if people get poorer and the governments go into large deficits, who knows if coal will not come back to be widely adopted, thus increasing carbon footprint.
In the short term, at least in northwestern Europe, coal is
more expensive than natural gas. That is without taking any other factors into account, like carbon footprint externalities or demand surge adjustment. Both of those are in favour of natural gas.
In the medium term, with the upcoming surge in lng terminal capacity, and the natural gas contracts going with it, many crystal balls are forecasting any coal/natural gas delta to be small or in favour of natural gas until 2026-2028 at least.
In the long term, there's reason to be optimistic the energy problems can be solved in ways ever more resilient, cheap, ecologically sound and less beholden to the mad dictator of the day:
- Renewables and biofuels are catching ever more energy market share. Marginal cost is ever closer to zero.
- EU wide electric interconnects are making the intermittency of some renewables ever less of a problem.
- Nuclear fusion seems to be coming ever closer to reality.
- Green fuels are becoming ever cheaper. Many think of hydrogen, but somewhat more complex products like ammonia or green methane.
- Some are counting on cheaper/safer/smaller/less wasteful nuclear fission reactors.