My side of the mountain

Where are you and where are you going?
jacob
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by jacob »

Veronica wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2024 8:06 am
Any books on this?
Probably described somewhere in Natenberg, which is the bible of complicated strategies. Note that box spreads are also known as alligator spreads due to how eat up your profit with fees. You need to put on 4 positions without any slippage (to avoid risk) and likely without crossing the spread (to make it profitable in the first place). Basically, it's like balancing pennies on the edge in front of a steamroller---if you can manage to balance 4 at the same time, you get to keep them. If not ... oi! Also, it requires a lot of money down for a limited profit. CDs at 5%+ seems far easier in comparison. Maybe I'm just getting old and boring though ...

Add: Boxing is basically a delta and gamma neutral strategy that plays away from ATM cf. the standard delta neutral which plays ATM. The problem with ITM and OTM is that those options are [much] less liquid. It's very hard to avoid crossing unless you're a market maker.

thef0x
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

jacob wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2024 8:56 am
Probably described somewhere in Natenberg, which is the bible of complicated strategies. Note that box spreads are also known as alligator spreads due to how eat up your profit with fees. You need to put on 4 positions without any slippage (to avoid risk) and likely without crossing the spread (to make it profitable in the first place). Basically, it's like balancing pennies on the edge in front of a steamroller---if you can manage to balance 4 at the same time, you get to keep them. If not ... oi! Also, it requires a lot of money down for a limited profit. CDs at 5%+ seems far easier in comparison. Maybe I'm just getting old and boring though ...

Add: Boxing is basically a delta and gamma neutral strategy that plays away from ATM cf. the standard delta neutral which plays ATM. The problem with ITM and OTM is that those options are [much] less liquid. It's very hard to avoid crossing unless you're a market maker.
As you noted, liquidity is super important for box spreads and I've really only heard of them traded on huge funds like SPY, VTI, etc, and I believe $BOXX trades on top of SPY.

Nailed it here re the effort -- I don't have time for that and don't want to inhibit freedom-to by having to sit there and manage my four options contracts (long call, short call, long put, short put) -- which is why $BOXX seems like a really wonderful way to achieve a similar outcome for a fairly modest fee (0.19%), IMO.

Right now I'm not trying to increase downside protection so I'm just hanging out and buying ($AVDV currently as my third purchase in my 2nd bucket). While I have no interest in market timing, US large growth sure does seem pretty dang whacky right now so happy to be buying counter-trend for some hopefully cheaper prices.

It's also worth noting that none of these strategies are required!

@Veronica, while I was still in my fatFIRE phase of planning (not spending) I noticed a ton of folks hit 1mm or 2mm or 5mm in assets on various forums and say "Now that I have a_lot_of_money I need to do something different like sell covered calls, buy box spreads, and purchase annuities. I should buy a ranch because of water like Michael Burry. My broker says he's good at daytrading energy and only wants 3%!" So unnecessary, as if somehow if you have a certain number in assets the previous strategies that got you there suddenly stop working.

Best to stay the course, keep it simple so conviction stays high, and avoid selling if you can.

Even with all of these weird strategies I'm using, I am really really optimizing for cost (while accepting I am lazy and do not want to day trade or follow much beyond the front page news).

I'm buying NTSX because it's so damn cheap and tax efficient. I purchased margin debt because it was so affordable and I had an immediate profit on yield (holding USDC and ETH to earn APY%>margin rates when rates were sub 2% and APY was 8%). I'm buying AVDV in my 401k because of taxes.

The vast majority of my portfolio is just VTI.

It's easy to want to complicate this stuff because it's fun and interesting -- I'm sure I'm doing too much already -- but goodness it's not recommended.

The reason many folks perform best with target date funds is not performance of the fund but because of the diminished likelihood to pull assets when they rub against trend/comparable indexes. People are simply more rational about their money when they hold indexes*. The more specific you get, the strong your conviction must be to fight the emotions of market comparison.

I get to sit pretty without stress just buying the market. Ultimately, I'm riding the global GPD wave and I'm throwing some spicy seasoning salt on top for funzies.

@Frugaldoc thx for the suggestions! I'll have to weigh actively managing these options against my general goals in life these days (be in the woods with my son and wife). I really do find markets and financial instruments interesting, perhaps in a slightly perverse voyeuristic way, but like the dark side of the force, I must ensure I am not seduced by INFINITE POWAAAHHHHH


*Anecdote from a recent video from either the Rational Reminder podcast or Paul Merriman's youtube channel.

frugaldoc
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by frugaldoc »

Just to be clear, box spreads do not require you to independently juggle four different options legs. Yes, there are four legs but it is traded as a net credit/debit depending upon whether you are short or long. To execute the trade may take 10-15 minutes as you slowly walk up or down your limit price until it is filled. You usually get filled at about 15-30 basis points above the equivalent term treasury yield. I would agree with Jacob that a 5% CD is easier if you are using it as an investment. And I wouldn't trade them actively as a retail investor. But for borrowing they provide a pretty economical way to leverage your portfolio in a tax deductible way. My use case will be as follows: find a property I really want and leverage my portfolio via box spread to make all cash offer on property. This allows me to stay fully invested. Then I use my considerable cash flows to accumulate assets to close spread. If I did it today, I would basically be issuing a zero coupon bond with yield of 4.5%, and I would receive a 60/40 capital loss on said "interest".

But these are tactics and not strategy. I find these things fun but they are certainly not needed for financial success.

thef0x
Posts: 84
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

Helpful addition, thank you -- I'm not curious enough about directly managing options trading to attempt purchasing them! Know that I know not.

BOXX attempts to replicate 1-3mo t bills and sure at the rates these days (5.24%!) that's a lovely "fixed income"-ish vehicle to buy but I would've missed out on this insane rally. I'll be implementing fixed-income-ish into my portfolio when I need to risk down.

\\ Related tangent: there are new arguments to never "risk down" for folks who aim to utilize their nest egg for more than 30 years because higher total risk may be required to retire for more than 30 years*.

How you suggested using box spreads as a synthetic mortgage seems like a brilliant utilization of cheap debt as well. Mr Money Mustache's post about buying his neighbor's house on margin is why I ended up getting an IKBR account to buy USDC yield.

BOXX is a pretty clever product, similar to NTSX in that these "actively" managed ETFs are coming out for cheap prices (active because a person has to execute the trades even if they are rules based). Us little guys are finally getting some of the cool stuff that financial advisors charge 1%+ for.

*https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=4590406

thef0x
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

Rant/ramble/more about:

How does one purposefully forget useless facts?

I have so many stored in my mind from my "professional*" career. I'll keep all the strategy and a few of the tactics but otherwise please delete.

I was just daydreaming about a book I read in my rhetoric and discourse class in college by Darwin, "The expression of emotions in man and animal". The class was themed around investigating writing about dogs. Why? because my professor could give a fuck. He was at that stage in his career where the lip spittle and chalk was fuckin everywhere (I'm trying to swear less b/c of my kid ya'll, its not working).

We read a bunch of books that had dogs in them to some degree or another. That was the reading list. We talked about how a dog(s) could mean so many different things as a sign, symbol, index, and as such, I learned about the whole knowledge / theory base of semiotics. It was 11 of us hanging out learning together for 90 minutes a few times a week.

I miss college. I liked learning those facts.

The academic part of college really clicked for me re philosophy class. I ended up being pretty serious about it immediately (was a B student in high school). It feels weird to write about it but I got a 3.9 gpa, did a thesis and honors thesis, won my department class award (definitely spent the money on weed), and studied philosophy abroad in Scotland. One of the most formal checklist of things I've done, including taking extra classes beyond dept requirements, extra classes with extra professors to ensure letters of recommendation from the whole department, yadda yadda. Academic career track.

I had never tried for grades before this or taken really much of anything seriously, despite being really into long AIM sessions about similar topics when I was a but a wee lad. Predisposed for sure but not excited enough to try. I really found a place I could excel in college.

But. lol. But. I decided that if my goal was to get others to think a little bit more deeply about their lives, perhaps writing Jstor articles arguing about the meaning of the word "noema" in Husserl's writing was not going to be the best way there. Being beholden to where I landed re PhD program, and then where I landed re philo professor, also not so good.

How, then?

In Scotland I read the 4 Hour Work Week**. I knew this strategy could create the freedom to do what I wanted, so that became template #1: earn freedom (in bursts to start), then do the stuff.

I also knew that I was not a good employee and a really terrible intern: I almost blew up a marketing department because I found out their $40k/mo ad budget created $0 revenue by doing the impossible and asking the sales team about it. My marketing manager hated that I thought the CEO's P&L presentation was interesting enough to ask him questions about it afterwards.

My bosses were the people that taught me the acronym "CYA".

Thus, I had to start a business .. and then I'll get back to the philosophy class or the film making or writing sci fi.

..There's a lot that happens from about 21 years of age to today at 37 that was absolutely fucking awesome. Life experiences that I would've died with regrets had I not done. Plenty I'll probably write about.

But so much useless facts about stuff related to providing a product or service to a customer for a dollar amount that I really really really do not care about. I want those facts to be about the meaning of Husserl's 'noema' and names of sci fi characters from books I haven't yet read.

Time to defrag the brain.






*Pajamaful

**I loved the idea of geoarbitrage and location independence and continue to optimize for them. I also like Tim's idea of modeling attributes of people you admire instead of trying to emulate the whole person; put differently, it's good to look at the whole person you're admiring and ask yourself what specific attribute you admire about them so you can cultivate and grow that in yourself.

thef0x
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

Finances update since discovering the forums in December 2023:

Current spend has been just below $3k/mo in Q1 2024 (I'm projecting March out but we'll see). I've amortized the car over 10 years with a recoup cost of 8k based on nissan leaf depreciation schedules -- it's likely we'll drive the car into the ground, but we'll see. Some of this spend is also CapEx which I hope reduces net spending over time as well (dual mode toilet system, EV, tiny electric heater for my son's room).

I'm not counting my mortgage payment in the above ($2k/mo) but I'm also not counting it toward my investment bucket that I'd plan to live on if I had $0 income tomorrow.

We did hit "the milestone" this month. $1.5mm in equities means that, including our mortgage payment, we're FI.

We are FI.

Crazy to write that.

The thing is I now know we're not even close to max-level efficiency based on learning from others in this community, so thank you all. Being totally honest, I feel a bit of guilt/shame just hitting our FI number knowing how much more I have compared to others here.

Retrospectively realizing how reckless I may have been feels not so great, even if I was operating at a high level based on the paradigm I was in (4 hour work week, MMM, fatFIRE*, now ERE). I guess it's worth noting for context that I have never spent over $83k/year in my life. Even so, it feels good to be at $60k/year for a family of three in a VHCOL county, including a mortgage. I know we can get go lower. Plenty of you will read this paragraph with a critical eye and I will probably feel the same way eventually too (like I do today seeing how my family and tech-worker friends live).

More to aspire to but even so, I'm feeling accomplished even if I have barely internalized any of this yet.

\\

Income robustness score: 2.0

Income robustness score if we rented out our house and maintained expenses: 2.71

Living on $3k/mo traveling indefinitely (rent, investments, business): 3.0


\\

* My fatFIRE goal / mission has been about living in a VHCOL city/county on an efficient-ish budget while generating more than enough to be able to give to charity (effective altruism) / steer the direction of future capital toward environmental technology (I am irrationally bullish on nuclear fusion). I still dream of buying land to put in trusts for conservation and to act as a natural playground for friends and family but then I remember that BLM exists and yeah, idk, that idea doesn't really make any sense. I've also thought about buying shared properties with friends all over the world and am now really reconsidering that (also no one I know wants to do this, even if it was $50k of acreage split 10 ways at 5k each). Excess money is powerful, especially when you're not beholden to it; there are still a lot of things I plan to do with the extra (beyond de-risking via nestegg growth).

AxelHeyst
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by AxelHeyst »

Nice, congrats on The Number! I'm hoping to hit mine soon.

I really appreciate your frank introspective updates. I'm reading even if I'm not commenting.

Joint/distributed ownership of properties in various places is something I'm interested in fwiw. We'll have to chat about it when we hang out irl later this year.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Congrats, lurking your thread for a while, just popping in now.

The idea of ERE land coops is intriguing......

ertyu
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by ertyu »

Congratulations, dude!

thef0x
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

I have not been feeling "The Itch" as much these days (more better new). [Edit: full credit to @Smashter for this phrase]

Part of it is that I've built up a repository of awesome gadgets and gizmos and tools and gear to keep me happy for a lifetime of projects and adventure, kinda feels like cheating. But even so, I know I'll feel The Itch again.

\\

I don't think The Itch is a bad mentality applied to the right project. But probably not a life.

The Itch is big part of why my business has been successful. Constant grinding improvement. Dissatisfaction.

There's a place for it, strategically, but it's best kept compartmentalized.

^^ Realizing this more and more re the "speed running vs savoring" dichotomy I wrote about a bit ago.

\\

I was reading @Smasher's early journal about training really hard, really purposefully, for basketball (dude ended up playing D1 ball, crazy). I think there's something to dissatisfaction. Here is the relevant blurb:
Smashter wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:46 pm
What I’ve been thinking more about lately is the fact that part of the reason I liked basketball so much was that I was so committed to it. I chose something I was good at, I worked very hard at it, and I didn’t give up when times got tough. I pushed through tons of obstacles and always came out stronger. The mere fact that I was so committed made me so much better, and happier. This can get toxic if you try to hold on too long. But the core idea of picking something at a young age and seeing what would happen if I just committed to it was a good one, at least for me.
The easy to point to extreme basketball example is MJ or Kobe. I don't think I'd want to be them, so driven to beat someone else, to be the best in the room at XYZ. But maybe for the right thing for the right amount of time, I could wear that jacket. Really try to be, not the best compared to others, but the best and most competitive that I could ever be for that pursuit. Trying way way way beyond my hardest ever, longer term, even more focused. Idk.

A different approach to "best" is "balance" (Nicomachean Ethics).

I'm gonna keep noodling on this theme I think.

Right now, personally, I know this: the idea of "total satisfaction / no more striving" in all areas of life sounds boring, but I'm good with taking a break, not having a plan, and destressing/chilling out while being active and doing the projects I've always enjoyed doing.

I know I'm the kind of person to not take a long enough break between "big" things. So the focus is on slowing down and being commitment-less.

Kinda boring, kinda awesome, and glad to be experiencing both.

\\

DW is dying for high octane photons in her eyeballs via nearish travel. I feel like I should stay local because my mom's husband is in hospice and I want to be there for her and him/his family. Of course I'd enjoy a warmer climate and sunshine right now and for none of this to be happening! That's life. We might end up going somewhere for a few nights to sleep outside-ish and have our thighs out in the daytime, we'll see (flight points + minivan rental for accommodations).

\\

Went backpacking. The rain, early season, and weekday gave us the whole area to ourselves. Often times that means more wildlife in a good way. Plenty of sunshine as well. What a world. More dramatic in person:

Image

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Video of the sun and the rain and a hint of rainbow: https://i.imgur.com/cFiFn3I.mp4

Sub 10lb baseweight with food, water, everything. Mostly MYOG.

Here's another pack, this time made with a 40 denier nylon I sourced from Alibaba, some 70d from the same manufacturer, and then your classic 100d robic nylon on the back. The body design is mega simple: 3 large panels (back+bottom 100d, sides+front 40d, collar 40d). Side pockets were designed to be boxy, specifically to fit my stove.

Uses modular "running vest" shoulder straps I created and can lace into whatever pack I want to use. Water filter and phone live up front on each strap pocket and when the water is flowing directly on the trail for most of the hike, you don't really need to carry water, just bend down, fill up, and drink directly out of the filter (I use katadyn befree). Save lbs of weight off your back.

Feeling good outside in a large range of conditions is more skills than gear, *with enough gear*. But I think folks overestimate "enough". I suppose I've put myself in less than safe situations to test those limits but to each their own. Don't get me started on natural TP, or do?

^^ Example from this trip: woke up at 1am cold as hell, knew I should smash 500+ cals of food to be able to actually sleep, did so, warmed up in 40 minutes, slept well the rest of the night. My knowledge weighed as much as insulated pants and an extra jacket but I didn't have to carry them with me.

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MYOG alcohol stove and titanium wind screen with a toaks 750ml pot. In summer I'll cold soak unless I'm spending a lot of time in camp with friends (like this trip).

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Camp for the night, myog tarp w/ perimeter bug net (~6'x9'). Stayed dry in the downpour but would've brought a wider tarp for more days in the rain to manage condensation even better (7.5'x9').

Image

Such a good nibble at the season to come.
Last edited by thef0x on Mon Apr 01, 2024 8:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.

thef0x
Posts: 84
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

Thank you all for the kind words! I want to listen to all of you on Axel's pod :D

\\

Finding the good in what's necessary

Stack homeotelic behaviors on top of required daily work.

My son makes a total mess every time we feed him. He's a baby, part of what you sign up for, just like home ownership requires time as maintenance. Not something to complain about but it might not be fun / what I'd choose to do.

But when I'm sweeping up the crumbs, I'm hip hinging on purpose, knees at the slightest bend, and stretching dynamically through my hamstrings. Deep breaths throughout.

Ends up being pretty nice, frankly. The clean up is a good excuse, as it turns out, to do the thing that I should be doing.

In "The Book of The Five Rings," Musashi preaches "Do nothing useless". Philosophy brain immediately tears apart the idea of "useful" into all its parts etc but the point remains interesting, at least.

I'm not trying to optimize everything but I will say this: when I don't really want to do something, but I have to, it certainly feels better to notice the good in it. Makes it go by faster as well.

Put another way, that quip: "enlightenment, and then the dishes".

\\

draft 1 of a higher lvl categorization of homeotelic "tags" I can overlay on top of actions for this "feelsgoodman.jpg" attitude about basically anything:

community
  • friends
  • family
  • wife/romance/life-partner
  • teachers
  • undiscovered wanderers
health
  • mental
  • physical, interior
  • physical, capacity
financial
  • assets
  • expenses
  • risk-reduction?
purpose
  • regret minimalization framework
  • The Future
  • learning
creation
  • video
  • writing
  • music
  • select all
contribution
  • money
  • time
  • knowledge
  • organization
  • impact

\\

Edit:

I think a lot of the personal appeal of doing these exercises is to create a language of optimization outside of my business. I know the things to measure in my business so well (ugh I hate jargon but the "KPIs"). Dashboards on dashboards because so much is quantitative.

But the strategy, the prioritization, the sequencing, for what to do next.. a lot of that is built around stacking similar "business tags" on top of each other when deciding what to do for max impact.

So I'm reflecting on my own impulse to write this "wellbeingRPG" tag system and perhaps that .. structure or behavior is what I'm after. The organizing and categorizing and prioritizing.

I'm enjoying taking these ideas / systems-thinking outside of my business and into my life. I keep saying it but I feel so lucky to have found these forums, so thank you all. Everyone here is so freaking smart and interesting and I've been inspired directly by folks here to apply these kinds of thought experiments / thinking strategies outside of just work.

WellbeingRPG 1.0 inbound

\\

Satre had a lot to say about "freedom-to". One of his most extreme ideas, to me, was that as long as you have your mind, you are free. Even in a jail cell, the fundamental unit of freedom is your subjectivity.

In a "I'm in philosophy class" sort of perspective, sure, I get it. So to some degree, all of us could find a version of The Good in prison. Reminds me of the last scene of the book The Stranger.

I remember being in class discussing this idea and frankly to me 17 years later, it still sounds mostly like hoity-toity hyperbole from the towers of academia.

But idk, maybe even in prison you could stack enough of these tags to feel good, even if done mostly in the mind.

I'll skip prison, though.

\\

FOOD

Fast ricotta / farmers cheese:

Image

Bring full fat milk up to a low simmer, where there are a bunch of tiny tiny bubbles, almost like the first bubbles of foaming milk for a latte. Turn off the heat, add 1/2tbspn of distilled white vinegar at a time, while stirring. Continue stirring and adding in increments every minute until the milk curdles and the greenish-yellow whey separates into a liquid.

From what I've read, you can let the curds cook in the heated whey for a more bouncy texture, depending on what you do with them, or just pull them. I let these sit for a couple of minutes to see if I notice the difference and with how I prepared the cheese, it didn't really matter.

Strain into a cheese cloth. I didn't need to squeeze the curds, just let them hang for a bit.

Throw a hunk of curds with half a stick of warmish butter and your favorite seasonings (this time: red chili flakes, garlic powder, salt, home grown basil) into a blender, process until the curds are very fine / we prefer spreadable instead of crumbly.

Soak the cheese cloth in vinegar to reuse.

Major hit without spending up for fancy cheese, has a story, is customizable, tastes great. DW + her GFs approve, what else matters ;)

\\

!!

Day 14!

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Vs day 1 / when I 'transplanted' the pellets to the reservoir

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Healthy roots

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Close up of the air roots, so cool.

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I have done *nothing* for this set up since day 1. Lights on a timer, a fan on the plants to ensure transpiration, and that's it.

Talk about a high ROI/rewarding project.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by Western Red Cedar »

Congratulations on crossing the FI threshold. That has to feel great!

I used to think getting out in the Cascades in early May was ambitious, but you are taking it to another level. As they say, no such thing as bad weather...

Maybe when I'm back in your neck of the woods we can meet up for a backcountry adventure. I was just giving @2b1s some suggestions on itinerary for NCNP, MRNP, and ONP as he'll be heading there for some boondocking on his way to EREfest. It will be his first time in the PNW. You might be the perfect guide for his first overnight, backcountry experience in the area.

Smashter
Posts: 545
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Location: Midwest USA

Re: My side of the mountain

Post by Smashter »

thef0x wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:54 pm
Right now, personally, I know this: the idea of "total satisfaction / no more striving" in all areas of life sounds boring, but I'm good with taking a break, not having a plan, and destressing/chilling out while being active and doing the projects I've always enjoyed doing.
I feel this. When I take a break from full time work I am also going to try to embrace a similar mindset.

I'm glad you got an interesting takeaway out of my journal! I loved reading old journals from start to finish when I first joined the forum (and still do.) I am self conscious about how much of a normie I feel like compared to so many folks here, so it's cool to know people still get something out of my ramblings.

Finding the balance between striving and “wanting what I have” ( relevant forum thread ) has been a constant theme in my life. It’s hard to deprogram from sincerely wanting to be my version of Kobe/MJ for so many years, overall happiness be damned.

It looks like you’re taking really positive steps toward building a fun life on your own terms. I’m excited to keep following along!

thef0x
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Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2024 2:46 am

Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

Skill Levers

What skills can I develop to transform something I need from "inflation susceptible" to "a-inflation-ary"?

Examples: Gardening

-- Composting [soil]
-- Seed harvesting [seeds]
-- Free material sleuthing [soil]
-- Rain water [water]

Lots of overlap with "change from waste to resource" as well.

The problem with spending all your time doing these activities is indeed time consumption, inhibiting freedom-to (if the above is not directly in your freedom-to wishlist).

Map out "time consumption" vs "reward payoff from doing this thing as expenses reduction (biproduct: inflation irrelevant)" and you're probably going to notice that beyond transportation, for housing and food, the time commitment to solve those problems in full is absurdly high. We have to find some balance, then, of "owning inflation" via participating with the goods and services of a scaled economy.

So you could map out a different graph that's: "time consumption" vs "reward payoff from managing a specific part of a larger need as expenses reduction" and then map skills instead of needs onto that graph.

I wonder what the largest skill-levers are.

I suppose it only matters specifically to how those skills manage your needs. Even if you might have mega high ROI on home-crafted katana blades, if you don't care about katana blades, it's moot.

So, modified question: what are the largest skill-levers I have to 80/20 handle my web of needs, acknowledging that fully solving many of my needs would be an immense and wasteful use of my time/consumption?

thef0x
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2024 2:46 am

Re: My side of the mountain

Post by thef0x »

@WRC @2b1s -- would love to. So much good hiking in the region outside of the parks as well. @2b1s if the timing works you guys can crash at my place (I have a 18 month old baby so be warned!) and then we can venture out. My only vague hope/plan is "Autum Japan Vibrations" but I'm confident I can make all of the timing work. Would love to host a gaggle of ERE folks headed South for fest.

@Smashter -- I've been chewing on that balance. Questions are: does "trying really hard" mean that you inevitably have to suffer, and it will suck? How much suck is the right amount, is there a sweet spot? How do I walk myself back from "embracing the suck" too much (have done this plenty) and making myself miserable for the sake of 'progress'?

I keep going back to the Nichomachean Ethics for these kinds of questions, frankly. I don't think there's an abstracted answer, it's particular to each of us, in each situation, in our specific lives. The question, then, might be: who do I look toward to emulate a healthy balance of "the suck" vs "the stoke".

I see a lot of folks on this forum who really seem like they have that balance. It's always greener, of course, but I admire folks here who are doing amazing things while seemingly having a blast 80%+ of the time. It's inspiring.

loutfard
Posts: 381
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by loutfard »

thef0x wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:07 pm
Skill Levers

What skills can I develop to transform something I need from "inflation susceptible" to "a-inflation-ary"?
The largest lever certainly is learning that you can do without and how you can do without.

A very large lever in our fairly high cost-of-living, highly taxed and regulated area is learning how to avoid labour cost and taxation:
- learning to geo-arbitrage: for dentistry, education, whatever. Example: I had an American acquaintance come study in Belgium. His masters' degree cost him under 5k€, compared to a high multiple of that for a bad quality one in his native Montana.
- learning the law of comparative advantage can sometimes be a law of comparative disadvantage due to receiving income post-tax and paying for expenses pre-tax. Example: I know a few well-compensated public sector employees who dropped back to part-time for a year to work on their house. They did the math of earning under 20€/h after taxes full-tiime, versus significantly more part-time, all while having to spend 70€/h on a tradesman.
- learning to navigate incentives like tax advantages and subsidies. Example: My kitchen cost me less installed by a tradesman than if I had installed it myself. VAT incentive.

All of these examples take some of the teeth out of inflation, but here's one that does better and beats inflation.

In the area around our summer house, other skills prevail. Many have a barn with wood piled up. They get it sawn from trees on their own land for a very low price and don't push it through drying ovens. They just pile it up and let it dry naturally. Any wooden house is bound to need some work done on it eventually, and if not, it can be used for furniture or sold. While they're waiting, they're safe from inflation in wood prices, and their forest patch is growing back. Not a lot of work needed, just patience.

This last bit might or might not be the most relevant to you. It's basicly directly managing an asset with the goal of avoiding part of inflation and even beating it. Play it right, and you've got a mostly worry-free asset with lots of freedom to go into managing it from a to z. Play it wrong and you have a troubled asset that requires you to invest a lot of your precious time into things you're not interested in.

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mountainFrugal
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by mountainFrugal »

thef0x wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:40 pm
How much suck is the right amount, is there a sweet spot?
There is a relatively recent book addressing just this topic:
viewtopic.php?p=254179#p254179

ertyu
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by ertyu »

Here are my thoughts on protecting against inflation:

The three major categories of consumer spending are housing, transportation, and food.

1. When it comes to housing, own. Whether outright (best), or w mortgage (still good as gvts have debt to inflate away so interest rates are likely to rise slower than inflation). A landlord is going to seek to raise rent to keep up with inflation. Contractor costs will rise in line with inflation, so doing your own maintenance is best.

2. Live somewhere walkable. Do not drive. Public transportation is good as it is not for profit but reliability and availability might decrease if local/municipal gvts are not solvent. Private transportation (e.g. a private company operating bus lines in a city) will seek to raise prices in line with inflation.

3. To the best of your ability, produce your own food. Inflation usually hits food prices first. I didn't save it, but the other day a chart rolled around my social media where, regardless of what has or hasn't happened with overall inflation, individual food items have seen inflation in the realm of 50% (caveat: location dependent). Raising your own meat/animal products is most protective. Staying away from branded processed foods, ditto -- so double down on the "from scratch, from staples" tenet of ere.

loutfard
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by loutfard »

ertyu wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2024 8:58 pm
3. To the best of your ability, produce your own food. Inflation usually hits food prices first. I didn't save it, but the other day a chart rolled around my social media where, regardless of what has or hasn't happened with overall inflation, individual food items have seen inflation in the realm of 50% (caveat: location dependent). Raising your own meat/animal products is most protective. Staying away from branded processed foods, ditto -- so double down on the "from scratch, from staples" tenet of ere.
I'm not entirely sure of the producing your own food bit. Gaining experience with gathering and producing it, definitely. Owning the right to cultivate a cheap plot of fertile agricultural land within cycling distance of where you live, good idea. But producing your own food all the time? Better not unless you're ERE and/or care about more than inflation. Food is heavily and universally subsidised in all functioning advanced societies. For a reason.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: My side of the mountain

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

thef0x wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:40 pm
@WRC @2b1s -- would love to. So much good hiking in the region outside of the parks as well. @2b1s if the timing works you guys can crash at my place (I have a 18 month old baby so be warned!) and then we can venture out. My only vague hope/plan is "Autum Japan Vibrations" but I'm confident I can make all of the timing work. Would love to host a gaggle of ERE folks headed South for fest.
That would be amazing, I would be extremely interested to hang and do some outdoorsy stuff together.

If all goes according to plan, we're leaving NY due west around August 15th and should hit the Glacier NP sometime between the 20-25th (depending on speed of travel and what we find along the way). The plan was to spend time in the parks/areas WRC mentioned till around 9/7 and then shoot down to ERE fest hitting San Fran (family for a day) and Yosemite/Sequoia before hitting Tyler's around the 11th or 12th.

If you could, maybe PM more a more specific location you're at and we can coordinate via email/txt!

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