ERE or Semi-ERE past Age 65

[chenda]

@7w5 @scott2 @ffj @Jin+Guice thank you all.

[ffj]

@7

If it were only as simple as to whether you got a pudding after Wheel of Fortune each night. I won't belabor the point too much but everyone needs an exit strategy and hoping for the best seems extremely counterintuitive to what this whole ERE thing is about.

[zbigi]

IOW, it's one thing if you wind up there suffering under the delusion that you were entitled to better, but it's another thing if you wind up there because "Oh well, rolled the dice and lost on that one. Hope there's pudding tonight."

From what I've personally seen, the worst scenarios do not revolve around availability of pudding, but for example sharing your room with someone who's borderline mentally ill and is screaming/moaning a lot (including in the middle of the night), cursing at you etc. Or (also a scenario from personal life), having staff tie you to a chair for hours because you misbehaved. The last years in a poorly funded and poorly supervised facility can be very grim. I personally can't imagine I'd ever attain the levels of acceptance required to feel ok in such situations.

[chenda]

Tomorrow I'm doing a preliminary visit to a care home for my parents. It looks nice, and it should. They charge £1800 ($2200) a week

Something we all should plan for. A final year of hell in a shithole abusive facility could easily outweigh 80+ years pleasant earlier life.

[7Wannabe5]

I won't belabor the point too much but everyone needs an exit strategy and hoping for the best seems extremely counterintuitive to what this whole ERE thing is about.

Planning for the worst is just as irrational as hoping for the best. Calculating the odds of outcomes and then making a choice and/or taking action in best alignment with your own value system and preferences is rational. The primary underlying value of ERE, as I understand it, is reducing expenses towards reducing your share of CO2 burn and natural resource depletion. ERE is also inherent of many other values and preferences which I don't share with Jacob. That is why I said (above) do not look to me as an example for ERE.

My outlook on nursing home care is likely somewhat positively colored by my experiences with my mother and uncle. My uncle was a n'er do well and ended up disabled from heroin use in his late 50s. The nursing home he was in was in a bad neighborhood, but was surprisingly nice, mostly due, I believe, to the fact that they could hire decent help inexpensively in that neighborhood. My mother's second hip replacement surgery was surprisingly successful, but prior to that she was all set to transition from Medicare to Medicaid (even though she has a pension of around $48,000/year) for nursing home care. The facility she was in was very nice, and the reason I mentioned the pudding was that the food was her primary complaint. They had physical therapy and laundry service and Jimmy Buffett lounge room concerts. Because she was in and out of short-term nursing care after a few different surgeries, she was able to kind of do a tour of all the facilities in her region and pick the best option.

One resolution I have come to based on this discussion is that I added End of Life Planning to my Skillathon 2024 for the month of November. I am going to create a very clear Living Will/ Advance Health Care Directive with the purpose of relieving my kids and younger sisters of as much burden as possible. I am not morally or constitutionally opposed to suicide in the event of incipient dementia or painful/extremely debilitating condition likely to end in death. It's hard to ask your loved one's to participate in such a plan, maybe that's something we could legally arrange to do for each other as frugal EREmites? I would trust an INTJ to pull the plug on me.

[guitarplayer]

Planning for the worst is just as irrational as hoping for the best.

I thought this would be just about the most rational course of action ! After all, this converges to ultimate tranquility however, aware this statement could be due to the fact that empiria and calculating odds had never been my departure point, though I learned some of this going forward.

[7Wannabe5]

@guitarplayer:

Yes, the most rational behavior is not necessarily the behavior most likely to contribute to happiness. For instance, it could be argued that it is irrational to believe in God or Agency, but it has been shown that humans who believe in one or both of these tend to be happier. In a way ERE is to Agency as God was to the Transcendentalists.

[jacob]

Recall that the median 65yo working stiff has but some 75k saved for retirement or retirement-homes. That's about 1/3 of the asset base that throws off 1jacob in (3%) dividends. As such, the financial aspect of ERE might not be Suze Orman level but it's still 3x more financially solid than the typical person.

[guitarplayer]

@7w5 agnostic whilst taking up as a potential working hypothesis is how I go with most things

[ffj]

@7

"Planning for the worst is just as irrational as hoping for the best."

Fair enough, but I know which side of that error I would prefer. Although I have children, I am going to assume they won't be available to wipe my ass if it came to it. I am also going to assume my wife will precede me in death. Is that a realistic view? Probably not but it makes me feel better knowing that I am covered either way. I also think it is responsible on my part not burdening family members long term.

But yes to the assisted suicide. If one meets some basic criteria it should be an option without question. Start an IV, allow the patient to push the drugs and let them go to sleep forever. It's clean and dignified and it lets the person go out on their terms.

@jacob

Which makes it even worse. These people have to go somewhere when they become incapacitated because they don't have the money for in-home care. Some will have family that step up but that only goes so far. I would expect even more expensive care as well as crowding in these homes.

[AxelHeyst]

For those who incorporate high quality end of life care to cover worst case scenario into your FIRE plan, what does that look like? I’m assuming ye old 4% rule is irrelevant. What sort of multipliers or stash sizes are we talking here? What’s the math for this? How did you decide you were done earning?

[Jin+Guice]

I have two friends who have a suicide pact. I'm not sure if it's serious. I'll let y'all know if they do it.

@AH: Great question!



Let me try to answer the OP in the form that I believe it is intended to be answered in:

Since I am semi-EREing, my plan is to make a plan when I am closer to actual retirement. I hope to be able and willing to keep working until the very end. I also hope to not need the money.

I think that, barring an advanced collapse scenario, I will end up with more than enough money. If social security remains intact, I will have more money than I know what to do with, even if I never save another dollar (or even if I actually lost all of my savings).

Something that makes this tricky is that I think it is difficult to estimate how much more you will need when you are old. This is a bit like trying to anticipate collapse scenarios. There is no perfect preparation. I plan to have a more solid plan the closer I come to that reality*.

I don't know what to do about end of life care. It's scary to think about losing all my faculties and I don't know what I'll do when that happens. A lot of people say they will kill themselves and don't. I'm sure in those moments, if money would ease my suffering, I'll wish I had more of it. But since I make that choice before I am in that state, I am deciding not to pursue saving enough money for expensive end of life care. Maybe that decision will change as the time gets closer.

I agree with 7's statement that I don't want to sacrifice the active years of my life to ease my suffering at the end. I hope I have a community of people who will take care of me so that I could avoid a nursing home and I hope I have lived a life that allows me to embrace the end, suffering and all. If not I'll suffer the consequences when I get there.



*Disaster planning is used a lot as the "gotcha" in ERE/ FIRE. My response to that is what @jacob said. In almost every disaster scenario I am better off than the average person bc of ERE. I am prepared in multiple ways. One cannot prepare for every eventuality, every disaster, whether that disaster is personal or bigger.

[Ego]

For those who incorporate high quality end of life care to cover worst case scenario into your FIRE plan, what does that look like?

viewtopic.php?p=271596#p271596

and

viewtopic.php?p=282893#p282893

[Scott 2]

I appreciate everyone's contributions to this thread. I think it's an essential conversation.

@AxelHeyst - My loose end of life strategy, as a couple:

1. The full Medicare suite. Plans A, B, D and G. Starting at age 65. Roughly $5k per person.

2. Delay social security as long as possible, as well as own my home. Each of these have some protections, if one spouse needs LTC.

3. Long Term Care - there's a couple paths depending how the portfolio is doing, around age 60-70. Health influences start age.

3.1 Run away growth - multi millions. In home care until it's too burdensome, then pay whatever a premium facility costs. I assume this is possible, but unlikely.

3.2 The portfolio does well, but nothing crazy. Maybe it's in the 1-2M range. Towards age 60, I'd start exploring options around senior communities with assisted living. Build a phased glide path down. I'm doubtful in home care is rational here.

3.3 $500k - 1M - This is probably the lowest range where I'd feel confident in LTC. I'd target a planned transition from my home to a good facility that first takes your assets, then medicaid. My understanding is it's around a $200-300k buy in, then some drawn down rate to medicaid. Your social security's ability to offset enters in as well.

3.4 $300 - $500k - I hope not to be here. Headed that way, I'm reducing consumption. This is where at the top end, I'd hopefully get something comfortable by working the systems. Our household social security could be decent, so this is feasible. It's most likely if one spouse has early or unexpected LTC needs, leaving the survivor to scramble.

3.5 Sub $300k - I have zero intention to be here. I am taking a job. If stuck, it's volunteer at the local Medicaid homes, hoping to find something tolerable. Most likely, stay home as long as possible, then wander off into the woods.


LTC featured in my FIRE planning only in a minimal way. I don't think I'd commit more than 2-3 extra years in hedging the risk.

I don't maximize SWR, keeping an eye towards affording comfortable aging.

I would do whatever is required to afford the Medicare suite and delay social security. I think those are great trades.

I have mixed feelings on burning the portfolio for end of life care. No interest in heroic medical care. I'm too young to be certain what I think about trading my estate to an assisted living facility.

The woods may become more or less appealing, based on a variety of factors. But I'd like the choice.

I have zero confidence in social capital saving me. I assume I'll outlive everyone who cares about me. Providing LTC as an individual is also nearly impossible, past a certain point.


So with my biases - the ERE elder spends a third or more of their income on healthcare. Because of that, food and shelter is very constrained. Then it's time for the woods.

I don't think it's a bad plan, especially given the freedom in healthy years. But I don't have skin in that game. I'm not qualified to define it.

[theanimal]

If you're willing to share, I'd be interested in hearing what Mrs. Ego and you are thinking in terms of plans. How have those conversations with your friend and seeing your tenants in Soylent Towers influenced your thoughts and desired outcomes? What will you do towards the end of your healthspan?

[candide]

Scott's second-to-last comment -- where he brought up sufficientism and displaced accumulation -- truly activated a bunch of things in my mind, but as I am trying to organize those things, I am left with a mess which I feel would overly derail the thread. I will keep trying to giving structure to those thoughts and will work them into my journal in time, but I think I have two coherent comments about the end-game.

1) on ERE merging with trad retirement.

Financial capital is different from both social and skill capital in that it is has the ability to reduced to a number and that number (and rates associated with instruments) can be locked in. These unique attributes are why it is the only capital that can go on auto-pilot. Old age can and will ravage body and mind until you cannot use your skills. And you are one crabby or even scary-looking day away from losing most of the people who could visit you. Back to my cousins: after my grandmother went to assisted living I visited her at a ratio of 50 to their 1. I visited every Sunday, and then whenever things needed to be done. I had learned that kind of reliability through routine from ... the example of my grandparents.

But any time someone doesn't want to pay back social capital investment... what exactly are you going to do? Giving a lot to others is no guarantee they will be there for you. Especially in our era of pathologizing all negative emotions, and then treating that as some consumer preference that all the NPCs need to deal with. "My anxiety prevents me from seeing someone so... old" Yeah, put the phone down and take a walk after the visit. I know this shit hurts, but other people have needs.

Again, pointing out that indeed smartphones are social cancer. The medium is the message, people, but as another active thread right now shows this observation is being met with "what medium?" Do not count on social capital from those fully participating in mainstream culture.


2) on legacy for family members

I want my daughter to get quite a bit of wealth from me, and I don't want that amount to be held hostage by the price of keeping my husk of a body respirating past the point of it being able to embody any of my values.

Yeah, yeah, suicide... Not sure I'd have the guts to do it, though. So more important is to give gifts while still alive, protecting what can be by structures like a living trust, maxing out daughters IRA, etc. But also the option of storing and sharing wealth off-book.

[Henry]

Living in the US, the social net, which does include charitable institutions run by religious organizations, makes it virtually impossible for 7W5 to wind up as a 90 year old lady publicly fertilizing someone else's daffodils. Maybe the person who winds up wiping her ass is not doing it with moist eyes and a tender manner, an abundance of two plies in their hands and a gentle finish of a rub of baby oil up her ancient taint, but no doubt someone will be putting their hands up her asshole and possibly gaining some enjoyment from it which is a whole other story. I appreciate ERE but radical pragmatism does not and cannot solve all the complexities and indignities of human life, especially the getting old and dying part. We are talking time and no one knows what that is. Time past and time future what might have been and what has been point to one end which is always present. TS Eliot 4 Quartets. Not to mention people plan, God laughs.

[Ego]

If you're willing to share, I'd be interested in hearing what Mrs. Ego and you are thinking in terms of plans. How have those conversations with your friend and seeing your tenants in Soylent Towers influenced your thoughts and desired outcomes? What will you do towards the end of your healthspan?

I wish I could say that we have firm plans. We don't. Systems are changing fast and the Boomer tsunami will almost certainly take away options when the wave recedes. There are too many variables to have firm plans this far out. Committing to any one course of action requires assumptions that we are not confident in making just yet.

Mrs. Ego is pretty adamant that my friend and his wife who entered the Continuing Car Retirement Community (CCRC) made a terrible mistake. I am not so sure. He admits that it is not good for healthy people to spend a lot of time with those who are in serious decline. This is Mrs. Ego's biggest concern as well. We saw how Soylent Towers affected us. On the other hand, they have a nice, comfortable place to live for the rest of their lives. Like us, they do not have kids and they feel confident that if they were to become incapable of making decisions for themselves, the CCRC will make good decisions for them. His wife was a hospice nurse. She has a lot of experience in that field and has seen first-hand how these things play out.

There is a very steep entry fee as well as a monthly fee to be in a nice CCRC. Barring any unforeseen decline in our nest egg or massive increase in the cost of a CCRC, we will be able to afford it when we reach 70 and begin collecting Social Security. My friend is 75, won his age group at a recent half-marathon and seems too young for the place, so we probably have even more time.

So, these issues are likely 20-30 years out for us. I plan to continue learning how these things work and hopefully keep one step ahead.

[7Wannabe5]

Maybe the person who winds up wiping her ass is not doing it with moist eyes and a tender manner, an abundance of two plies in their hands and a gentle finish of a rub of baby oil up her ancient taint, but no doubt someone will be putting their hands up her asshole and possibly gaining some enjoyment from it which is a whole other story.

Were you a fly on the wall when my 83 year old bi-polar mother (from whom I directly inherited tendency to store large amount of adipose tissue posteriorly) was recently reflecting on her post-surgical short-term care facility stay? She drives me and my sisters nutz, but all the young adult grandkids find her hilarious even though there was also a certain lack of political-correctness in her commentary along the lines of the particular sort of Aide most likely to gain enjoyment.

[Frita]

Hm…I am ever curious, if agency is highly valued, why self-selected termination is not discussed more. I think the biggest challenge would be timing, not ending things too quickly but not being trapped. A legal path would allow more choice of a gentle method supported by loved ones while decreasing stigma. Ultimately, it’s more of a philosophical question than a matter of finances.