ERE or Semi-ERE past Age 65

[guitarplayer]

Interesting thread, thanks for setting up.

If the plan at 30, is still to have a million at 70, it seems worth noting.

I have this occasional recollection on the ERE1 project being in fact very intentionally a peak oil remedy project with disguise. If I had been setting up the ERE1 project, while acknowledging that the 'hey look you can retire in 5 years' will be a trigger for many, I would have cared relatively little about people stopping working immediately after hitting the 4% or whatever. I would instead have been much happier by people implementing the low expenditure part of the equation, because it is largely correlated with not getting a lot of unnecessary junk and putting breaks on the production of this junk with all associated consequences.

Of course, this is also written in the ere book, that the result is having options and not ban on work. Several decades starting from sometime in 30s or 40s is heaps of time to make money on occasions and end up with a million at 70. Actually, by then half of that in inflation adjusted terms should be more than enough because then it will be 30 years to get a congratulations letter from them king or what have you when you hit a century in the US.

Occasionally you get articles, essays or books on swiping death and dying under the rug, all the way from sugar coating old fables with happy endings by Disney etc. to ultra life span or however that recently popular movement is called. Think making peace with death, lots of pressure goes away.

Otherwise, I would go for the turquoise and other warm colours as well, like @7w5.

In my previous life before the fancy gig I am doing now I spend good several years living with people with no savings at all, on benefits and very vulnerable. And there I noticed that some of them were content with life and some where not, with the distribution being more or less like the one in the population at large.

[AxelHeyst]

@AxelHeyst - Understood. Of course ERE does not preclude accumulating financial capital. But hitting 65 with a 7 figure net worth isn't how I imagine the ERE elder. Something closer to the lifestyle @7Wannabe5 is heading towards. Her recent journal started me thinking. I have a very specific vision of aging, and the two don't match.

It's not that ERE doesn't preclude $ accumulation: ERE specifically includes the accumulation of financial capital to the point where there is a large margin of error. semiERE does as well, just a different route there (and possibly more risks since the accumulation phase is spread out). Any individual EREr certainly can run things at a closer margin than is Rx, based on their personal risk tolerance, but that's on them.

@7 is a unique snowflake. Taking her path as an example of under the bell curve ERE paths is an error, imo.

[urgud]

It seems like the threat of catastrophic failure caused by healthcare costs looms large as the backdrop to this conversation. I suppose this has been one of the major nuts to crack in the US FIRE community. My future projections include socialized free-at-point-of-care medicine still existing in my country during my old age. And if it doesn't? Who gives a shit anyway.

I am reminded of something I think jacob once wrote: ERE(1?) being about rediscovering how your grandparents used to live. To be honest, my 87-year-old grandma doesn't even know how to spend her social security check (her only income, probably ~$1700 net per month).

[zbigi]

Hyper-inflation reduces your portfolio to crumbs in a matter of months.

That's not true for most reasonable portfolios. Your bonds will likely become worthless, but stocks, gold and real estate will retain their value. War is more likely to be a portfolio-killer than hyper-inflation, but that's not something people in the US realistically have to worry about.

[7Wannabe5]

2) semi-ERE where the person has no plan to reach 25x - 33x intentionally (7W5? Not that I think she framed her lifestyle as semi-ERE, just that I think it fits this description)

Yes, puhleeze, do not hold me up as any form of likely outcome of following ERE. Due largely to personality type, the behavior I have exhibited would be more in alignment with Robert Wringham's "Escape Everything!", but due to my gender/generation, it would also be towards Amy Dacyzyn's "Tightwad Gazette" with a whole stack of super-liberal breast-feeding, home-schooling Hippie Mom magazines thrown into the mix. For instance, when I read and undertook the "YMOYL" program way back in 1992/3, my endgame was being able to afford to buy a house while I continued to stay-home with our kids mostly full-time and my wanna-be-musician husband could keep working at his reasonably fun/fulfilling, rather low-paying day-job. I zero-percent saw a path to FI given 4 humans living on maybe $30,000/year in 2024 dollars. I did manage to pay off our small student loans (maybe $5000) and scrape up $8000 for down-payment on cheapest house per square ft in tri-county area ($78,000 for 2800 square ft.) My plan was to keep the old decrepit, drafty house in duplex form and just live in one half for a few years while fixing it up, but my ex vetoed that plan due to being super-cranky INFX sort of extremel introvert who does not want other humans sharing his roof-space. So, that's why I did end up having to work a corporate job for a few years after my kids started school, after I did pretty much all the renovation work on the house on my own Then I started my own rare book dealing business, and eventually dumped my too-cranky husband and the too-drafty old house, exactly as I was becoming empty nest and no longer needed them. Then I had a super fun time being frugal, empty-nest, single-again human in my 40s, but I was too busy having fun to make very much money (but, I also still spent very little money.)Then I entered into my second "marriage" under Islamic contract with Millionaire Next Door frugal type, and I had no need to make very much money, because he had tons, and there was a lot of stuff I could do to help him with his teenage daughters, social obligations, and landlord responsibilities in exchange for having virtually all my expenses covered. Then I dumped him due to extremely overbearing around the same time I joined this forum. In fact, it was one of my second "husband"s comments along the lines of "It is impossible to save money until you are making around $40,000/year" that inspired me to join the forum due to cognitive dissonance in need of resolution/validation. Although, since joining the forum, I have been much more inspired by the eco-logic of the program.

However, since I have not even vaguely approached making $40,000/year since I joined the ERE forum, I have not yet been well able to dispute my Millionaire-Next-Door second "husband's comment. In fact, according to the Social Security Administration, in the last 10 years , roughly covering the time I've been member of this forum, I have averaged an income of only $8300/year! So, clearly, the ERE program is not to blame for my current circumstances which are not really all that dire ( I gots me some options), and is mostly due to the fact that I am the sort of scrappy optimist who is pretty well convinced that she will always eventually be able to somehow scavenge up some semblance of the ingredients necessary to make a Red Velvet cake, no matter what personal to global level apocalypse befalls her. And frugal advice in alignment with Infinite Regress of Creative Substitution is pretty much the only form of frugal advice I (as biochemically eNTP type) am at all fit to offer any of the other much-more-born-old-and-wise members of this forum As physiologically old woman type, the only advice I would offer is some-way some-how bring some love into your practice. You'll never regret that move.

[mathiverse]

I think this discussion would go better if we distinguished between 1) ERE with 25x - 33x expenses (jacob and most people here), 2) semi-ERE where the person has no plan to reach 25x - 33x intentionally (7W5? Not that I think she framed her lifestyle as semi-ERE, just that I think it fits this description), and 3) semi-ERE with plans to reach 25x - 33x expenses at some point (AxelHeyst, J+G).

(1) and (3) both have a financial backstop at the end. (2) may or may not depending on how things went, accidentally.

@7W5: Sorry, I didn't mean to imply your outcome was likely or unlikely. I was pointing out that it is a different category than most people on the forum. ETA: And, now, I realize you were probably talking to Scott 2 with that.

I'd also add the context that assuming any EREr has very few financial assets is pretty weird given that very, very few people on here are living at a Jacob or below, FI or not. It was less than 10 at last count. Given that most people who are FI here are at 2 or more Jacobs in spending per year, they have closer to $500k or more right now, implying they will probably be rich when they reach traditional retirement age.

I think the category (2) above is the only one unlikely to be able to take advantage of your plan, Scott 2.

[chenda]

72 hours ago my parents were healthy retirees planning their next holiday. Now their both disabled with mum in intensive care right now and no idea if she'll recover in anyway. Yesterday was the worst day of my life, seeing her have a seizure in front of us and being told to prepare for the worse. My sister and I have spent the last few days clutching each other and sobbing uncontrollably in hospital corridors just so grateful we have each other. But I am also grateful for the financial security they/we have. It does matter.

Plan ahead, protect your assets, and build up social capital. And tell your loved ones how much you love them whilst you still can. And don't do what I did and wait till morning to call 999.

[7Wannabe5]

@mathiverse:

No worries. This discussion is actually putting me in a very chipper mood.

I think the category (2) above is the only one unlikely to be able to take advantage of your plan, Scott 2.

AND, category (2) not coincidentally is also the least likely one to care about not being able to take advantage of Scott's plan. Seat-of-pants-scrappy fragal doesn't magically transform into security-oriented over-killer frugal as she gets older. In fact, I just started researching the possibility of doing away with my dependency on my expensive Crohn's disease treatment by substituting medical marijuana in non-inhaled form. I could even grow it myself! I had a brain-flash after I typed "old person with young person disease' in which I realized that I probably didn't get it in full-blown form in my late 20s (usual age of onset) even though I had some incipient symtoms (such as emergency acute appendicitis when 6 months pregnant-still have the Frankenstein scar). because I altered my immune system by exclusively breast-feeding my daughter to 30 lbs of barely walking chubster. Medical marijuana has largely the pretty much same chemical structure/effect as prolactin, the breast-feeding hormone! That is why it makes humans so chill. Apparently it worked pretty well for one of the SNL stars Pete Davidson.

https://www.ibdassist.com/blogs/news/in ... ith-crohns

Crosspost:

((chenda)) So sorry about your Mum. Take very good care of yourself too.

[Ego]

What does ERE or Semi-ERE look like during one's last 2-3 decades? When the gradual decline of aging sets in?

1. Do everything possible to square the healthspan curve and shorten the gradual decline. Steep decline for the win.



2. Most abilities are at least somewhat use-it-or-lose-it. We never intend to fully retire. The hope is that we will never completely lose-it. Hah! I've mentioned before a Navy Seal friend who came back from Mountain Warfare training and shared one lesson, "It is easier to stay warm than to get warm." Along those same lines, it is easier to continuing to work than is to go back to work. It is easier to continue living below means than it is to get spending under control. It is easier to stay health than it is to get healthy. It is easier to maintain good habits than it is to start good habits. It is easier to keep friends than to make them. It is easier to remain active than it is to get active.

3. We plan to keep looking ahead and optimizing whatever systems are in place. Maintain access to multiple systems.

4. Arbitrage

[Scott 2]

@chenda - Wishing you strength for what lies ahead.



@J_ Your strategy looks smart. Highly enviable. Thanks for sharing it.



@mathiverse - Your categories center the discussion upon financial capital. They appeal to my bias, but might not translate well to ERE outcomes. As I'm learning on this thread, results depend on the retiree's full capital portfolio. Each capital class has a draw down curve to consider.

I too have observed most FI on 2 or more Jacobs. I think 7 figures is common, especially in the age group I'm considering. If that's the plan, let's say so. There's a trajectory to monitor.

For what it's worth, I believe another path is feasible. Most retirees have much less. But to cheer others that way, while coaxing my own SWR as low as possible, feels questionable. I'd much rather have lived examples to reference.



@Jin+Guice - I agree with your criticism of my capital assumptions. Implicit in the question, is the financial bias of my Wheaton level. That's an important point.

Hitting 70 with $250k and minimal social security, does look intimidating to me. My housing costs more than that. The concerns are also medical and long term care related. Higher tiers might extend both lifespan and healthspan. Maybe it's a fear of death, but that chance appeals to me.

When posting in @7Wannabe5's journal, I started trying to answer the OP question. I began offering her suggestions, before realizing I don't have the perspective. My strategies do not translate to her values.

That's why the journal appeals to me. She holds an entirely different mindset. It highlights my blind spots.



@guitarplayer - As a peak oil remedy, avoiding expensive elder care makes great sense. It may not align with the individual's incentives though. I agree on the need to face death and make peace with its inevitability. I see an exercise like this as part of that process.



@AxelHeyst - One thing I'm enjoying about this thread, is different visions of the ERE elder. Yours is closer to an idealized version of the renaissance man. I view @7Wannabe5 as deep into ERE, but centered on non-financial capital.

I also assume (likely incorrectly!) that once adversity appears, everyone will fail over to financial capital. Hence my bias error.


@urgud - I don't think it's possible to discuss US elders without considering healthcare costs. They are an unbounded financial risk. One can be bankrupted, without ever having the option to decline care.



@7Wannabe5 - Your non-linear path is what I envision from a freedom to lifestyle. While I can see "winning" ERE by maxing all forms of capital, that misses the point. Us INTJ's escape Plato's cave, only to find someone like you wandering, having never set foot inside.

As to the cannabis - why not both? Pick up some decriminalized mushrooms while you're at it. Solve the fear of death problem.



@Ego - Thanks, I appreciate the plan. I expect you'll find a run-away growth trajectory.

[Western Red Cedar]

Good topic @Scott2 and interesting ensuing discussion.

On a general or philosophical note, I've attempted to accept that there is a lot I can't control when it comes to planning for health care in my last decade or two of life. Aside from major structural changes to the health care system or medicare policies in the US, there are simply a lot of unknowns when it comes to personal or familial health in one's 70's and beyond. My parents and friends' parents are all at that stage. It appears that once major health issues emerge or serious physical/mental decline takes place, there is only so much that finances and the health care system can do.

I think a lot of the FIRE discussions on this topic and plans for long-term care or advanced medical planning is a manifestation of controlling or planning for something over which we have little control (though things like good sleep, movement, resistance training, and nutrition are all great areas to optimize and focus on at any stage).

I was recently watching the mad fientist discuss this with some of the Bogleheads: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vd4V-XuXgOM

Near the end of the interview, a Boglehead asked about his plan for long-term care. He briefly talked about the difference between the UK and US health care systems, but didn't get into details about his plans and acknowledged that it was an important variable to consider. What struck me is the lengths to which that community would go to mitigate that risk.

I've mentioned elsewhere that I tend to subscribe to @BSOG's perspective in terms of thinking more in a medium-term timeframe when it comes to finances, and I think that probably applies to health as well: viewtopic.php?p=194073#p194073

It is probably better to focus on what's in front of me, and adapt as problems or circumstances emerge.

So the FIRE path merges into the traditional retirement path. A couple decades of freedom to, at no real cost to the retiree. If anything - the FIRE boards are filled with seniors sitting on run-away wealth. Selection bias sure, but it is a very likely path.


On the ERE, and especially Semi-ERE path, things look different. There's a large amount of physical, social and skill based capital one relies upon. Much of that, while it can defer the aging process, eventually diminishes. What's the plan? My instinct is to maximize the social safety nets, essentially forcing a shift into the traditional path.

As others have noted, the ERE or SemiERE path will probably merge into the traditional retirement path as well if you just focus on finances.

In terms of my personal nuts and bolts, I'm guessing I'll be better off than the average retiree as I'm kind of in the LeanFire or CoastFire camp. It is likely DW and I will have 30-40K coming in from pensions and social security, along with whatever is left in the portfolio. I'm guessing that will healthy considering DW wants to work again at some point, and the slow travel/SemiERE/rising equity glide path plan seems like it will work out. This doesn't include any potential inheritance.

We are both open to medical tourism as well, and I don't have any ethical concerns about that strategy. It is basically just paying for a similar service without the extra, bloated costs added to American health care bills. That might be somewhere like Mexico with a home-base in the US, or it might be somewhere like SE Asia or Europe with a permanent base there.

The biggest concern I have is cognitive decline from something like dementia or alzheimers. That would create a lot of problems in terms of managing the portfolio and navigating the health care system. I'm not sure how financial capital adequately mitigates that.

What the last month on the road has taught me, along with a couple of the unfortunate medical circumstances of forum members here, is that I should live my best life now while I am still relatively young and healthy. While I'm still in my "go-go" years. I already notice a difference in how I feel traveling at 40 vs. traveling at 25 (cranky back, sore feet, less tolerance for long bus trips, etc...), so I'm glad I'm doing this now rather than working longer to pad the stash.

[Scott 2]

@wrc - I think an important distinction for the bogleheads, is they tend to be on a multi-millionaire trajectory. Planning an obscene amount of money for something like long term care, is attainable. If you've already got the cash, it's much less of an incremental commitment.

Your plan, like mine, is sensitive to long term care risk. That's by far the most expensive risk to financially mitigate. I agree the trade is worth it, recapturing freedom during our healthiest years.



That hints at a fundamental disconnect in this thread. Coming from a FIRE perspective, I always considered "enough" as the core component. Enough work. Enough money. Enough status. Paring back wants to enjoy values. A rejection of Western materialism, instead of transferring it - say to travel or spirituality.

So I extend this assumption to ERE. The renaissance man exploits capital diversification, reducing the required amount of any form. Slight investments in non-financial capital dramatically reduce the required financial capital. Since he demands only small amounts in each form of capital, accumulating enough becomes dramatically easier. He plays far from the point of diminishing returns.

But then what? In my mind, the striving stops. Just like with traditional FIRE, you have enough, so you wander. That's why I see @7Wannabe5 as ERE. She's applied the capital diversification hack and escaped western materialism. That's also where my concern for the perils of aging comes from. Small capital pools ARE sensitive to small declines.

Others here - they've displaced that materialism. The plan is to continue accumulating capital. The only difference, is with freedom to, they apply that growth mindset to the entire pool. Similar to when an animal has displaced aggression. The striving takes a different form, but it does not cease.

For me - the entire point of retirement was to escape that striving (freedom from). So it's natural I assume the same of our freedom to friends. But for them - the striving is the point. That's what they are living for. Only it is diversified, for even greater resilience.

[jacob]

Hitting 70 with $250k and minimal social security, does look intimidating to me.

The median American's savings are much smaller than that. A lot depend entirely on SS which is $1800/month/person on average. IIRC, people get ~45% of their previous earnings in SS, because they're somewhere between the first and second breakpoint. Those who didn't save enough to fill the gap will suddenly experience a radical change in lifestyle. This is likely where all the "woe is me" is comming from. They'll spend their 60-70s downsizing from consumerism, literally trying to fit their accumulated garage-junk into the 2bd apartment and learning how to cook lest they spend the rest of their life eating rotisserie chicken from Walmart because they can no longer afford to eat out all the time. They'll be going from driving a $35,000 sedan to likely waiting for the senior bus to carry them down for basket weaving classes at the senior center because recreational shopping is too expensive and they never had time to develop a hobby. It's not that this life is horrible. It's that the transition is hard. This is compounded by the change being forced. From a perspective of consumerism, it's a huge step down.

From the perspective of ERE, simple living, BNY, voluntary simplicity, non-consumerist hobbies and activities, ... these guys are already living that lifestyle. For them---us---the change is minimal. There's no struggle or fear of the transition. It's what we've been doing all along. Ironically beginning SS payouts will likely lead to a substantial raise in monthly income. I for one don't even know where to start in terms of burning all that extra money.

I think the concern very much comes down to whether $1800/month (21,600/year/person) is seen as less or more according to one's frame of reference. From a [semi-]ERE perspective, it's a lot more being ~3jacobs. That's a very generous raise.

[guitarplayer]

Wow I just ran a few scenarios in the US SS website quick calculator, that social security is very generous. Makes me want to move and work in the US for some years.

[candide]

Others here - they've displaced that materialism. The plan is to continue accumulating capital. The only difference, is with freedom to, they apply that growth mindset to the entire pool. Similar to when an animal has displaced aggression. The striving takes a different form, but it does not cease.

For me - the entire point of retirement was to escape that striving (freedom from). So it's natural I assume the same of our freedom to friends. But for them - the striving is the point. That's what they are living for. Only it is diversified, for even greater resilience.

To an introverted person, getting to run-away social capital would very much be a job. And in the social media era it is much, much harder in that 1) it spins out a lot of fool's gold for the would-be capital builder 2) this evil time trains people you would like to network with to filter (ie swipe ... whichever direction, thank god I never had to) and "ghost." I have two cousins who grew up a block away from me (until I was about 10) and have made every reasonable effort to be part of their life. Shared holidays broke up with all of the family deaths and then there was Covid. Since then, the only replies I have received to anything I have sent were the day of my daughter's birth. I have been ghosted with everything since then. I gave up.

Also, I share your view that sufficientism seems like the point, or it could be, and your foregrounding of the issue really unlocks a lot of things I want to write... but I must go pick up my daughter, who has sent the night at the her grandmas. And I'll point out that's the only social capital I know how to the build. It is horrifically expensive in terms of time and very much a "egg in one basket" deal.

I owe the forum a post.

(Wife just walked in "are you gonna start getting ready?")

It may be a while, though.

[Lemur]

Grandfather at 91 - Still chopping his own wood
Grandfather at 92 - Can barely walk

My Grandfather was fortunate enough to be healthy in his old ages - he is a tough SOB. Navy veteran silent-generation type. He overcame 2 heart attacks in his early 60s. Quit smoking after the second one. The fact that he was able to turn that around has always been an inspirational point to me that the body is quiet resilient and can reverse damage with proper treatment. His decline was very sudden with a fall that hurt his hip last year. That is all it took and he hasn't fully recovered and probably never will at this point.

He never did anything special regarding health like dieting strategies - his secret was too be active and stay active. Mostly through lots of yard work. And a beer afterwards that he swore by lol. No savings whatsoever - he has been doing just fine on social security and Medicare. Having a paid off home is key. He regrets having a home with a stair/basement. He broke his glasses once and fixed it up with glue and tape...he rarely buys anything. Depression era parents were a big influence on him.

My grandfather has pretty strong social capital from decades of going to the local church. He gets calls and visitors quite often who bring him things. It helps that he can tell really good stories. He hates politics especially because it has unfortunately destroyed the social fabric at his local church so he stopped going around 2016. Still has plenty of friends though.

[ffj]

First of all, condolences to Chenda. Been there, done that and it still affects me today. Hoping the best for you.


Nobody has really addressed QUALITY of long-term care here if you are unfortunate enough to require it. That requires assets beyond what a government-assisted facility can provide many times. Has anybody ever visited a state-run nursing home for example? You won't forget the smell and despair. And a lot of you don't have children that hypothetically would help take care of you in your own home. So you'll have to pay for a home-health nurse to care for you which is very expensive if you want to stay home, beyond what insurance would cover. I can't cover every scenario but I think it's short-sighted to assume that you can arbitrage your way out of very high costs for health-care if you are incapacitated because not all of us are going to be fortunate enough to die quickly. You can't assume because you are running lean and on all cylinders now in your prime that will be the case when you are old, and the only insurance that you won't end up in literal horrible living conditions at your most vulnerable is having enough assets to buy your way out of that situation. This is one of the reasons I support assisted suicide so one can clock out on their terms.

Before my Grandfather passed away, he was admitted to a private hospice care unit that was really expensive and out of pocket, but it was so nice and peaceful. And he was surrounded by loving family when he passed.

Contrast that with my past career of responding to some run-down nursing home that smells like piss where somebody has coded next to the other old person who they have to share a room with while the unconcerned, under-paid staff look on as we go to work. It's very sobering observing what end-of-life care is for state-subsidized folks.

[Jin+Guice]

Sorry to hear about your mom @Chenda!


It feels precarious for me to rely on public services that exist now in 40 years (or anything that exists now in 40 years), but ya.... social security is like an ERE lottery ticket. It's just so much damn money.


Financial capital is unique and odd. It's very good at what it does. Having financial as our primary exposure to capital makes talking about other forms of capital difficult though. It may not be useful to call them capital, as this to me is a financial term.

Imo financial capital leads towards a scarcity mindset. The myth of money is that you could some day have enough of it to be whole.

The stock/ flow/ maintenance analogy is better for other forms of capital. Also the web analogy.

Your stock of social capital is not like money, sitting in an unchanging and ever growing pile. Once a social network is built, it is very difficult to grow it past a certain point, but it should also have the web quality of being difficult to fully destroy all at once. In this way, it is more like your capacity to earn money (so called "personal capital") than your stock of money.

Unlike money, which has a finite and determinable flow (of goods and services), build a stock of social capital and things will start to flow unpredictably towards you. These things could be goods and services, they could be attention, they could be feelings, they could be relationships... The flow is less predictable and controllable.

Then there is maintenance. To maintain money, stuff it into a mattress or bank account and then stop people, businesses and governments from stealing it (I include inflation in this theft analogy). Maintenance of a social network is ensuring the relationships remain intact. Since a social network is more like a web than a pile, it is difficult to undo or steal all at once. If one pays no attention to maintenance, perhaps by becoming a shut-in or moving, their existing social capital will degrade slowly over time. If one actively works against their social networking, perhaps by becoming a complete bag of dicks, then much of it can be destroyed at once. Still destroying the entire web at once is quite difficult.

Since one can only grow their social network so big, eventually growing it in one direction necessitates shrinking it in another.

Since it is difficult to measure and thus difficult to quantify, social capital resists optimization.

If one brings the optimization/ consumer mindset to social capital, one could try to get more and more goods and services from people, discarding those who give them less. This strategy would lead me to question their existing stock/flow/maintenance of emotional capital.


I also think that maintaining all forms of capital into old age is the best form of insurance.

[7Wannabe5]

some run-down nursing home that smells like piss where somebody has coded next to the other old person who they have to share a room with while the unconcerned, under-paid staff look on as we go to work.

Yes, as I outlined in my journal, this is a valid risk. However, you are not proceeding rationally if you don't attempt to calculate the likelihood of this outcome vis-a-vis the trade-off in terms of either other ways to spend your money (maybe not cool due to eco-concerns) or your life-energy. For instance, given 50/50 odds, if I had to choose between spending the next 15 years working on a permaculture project and my last 2 years in a stinky state-sponsored nursing home vs. spending the next 15 year working full-time as a data scientist and my last 2 years in an upscale nursing facility, I would still choose the first option. It makes rational sense to plan for future you, but it does not make rational sense to plan only OR hugely weighting towards last 2 years of life you. Hopefully, even if you do end up in a stinky place for your last couple of years, your lifetime of experience towards perspective gained by taking on some level of risk will grant you a bit of philosophical acceptance. IOW, it's one thing if you wind up there suffering under the delusion that you were entitled to better, but it's another thing if you wind up there because "Oh well, rolled the dice and lost on that one. Hope there's pudding tonight."

[jacob]

Hope there's pudding tonight."

Only if you eat your meat.