2024 market predictions

[giskard]

I will kick us off with 2024 market predictions:

1. Fed cuts rates 3+ times.
2. Housing market picks up a bit w/ mortgage rates going down
3. Generally speaking economy is soft
4. Markets go up, not quite as good as 2023 because they front-ran Powell but they go up
5. Everyone anticipates a new crypto bubble developing but it is much more muted than people expect (and disappointing overall).
6. Gold & silver finally break out of their trading range.
7. The dollar continues to weaken.
8. AI stocks continue to fly as the public is amazing with terrifyingly good AI Products

More wild predictions (which may influence markets)

1. Feds legalize marijuana nationally right before the election (I will NOT be betting on MSOs)
2. Something happens with student loan forgiveness right before the election
3. States & feds head for a showdown over the Trump ballot question
4. Several big 2024 election surprises / last minute shake ups in terms of candidates
5. New AI models are released and open sourced which yield insanely good deep fakes disrupting political discourse & the feds freak out and do something quite reactive (in terms of legislation).
6. A large scale cyber attack occurs adding to the general informational warfare / chaos.

[thedollar]

1. Q1 earnings will not be as good as anticipated (for big tech, consumer, etc., except banks) causing a 5-10% drop in stocks
2. Fed cuts rates after summer (total of 2 cuts)
3. S&P 500 will end above 5,000 and the market will return around 10%
4. Brent crude will end at $60-65
5. House prices will stabilize as the market anticipates lower rates
6. BTC will hit ATH above $60,000
7. NVIDIA and AI bubble pops, with NVIDIA staying below $500
8. Tesla stock will see most volatile year ever going below $150 and above $350 as the market continues having trouble pricing it correctly
9. US elections will be insane either electing Biden or Trump?!

[Seppia]

Market crashes are usually coming when nobody is expecting them, so I think 2024 could be one of those years - we think we are in the clear since everybody was predicting hell for 2023 and it didn’t happen.

I think we had so much time (especially in Europe) with little to no inflation and, as a consequence, very stagnant wages*, that 2023 was a product of the west being subject to a collective case of money illusion.

2024 could be the year where people wake up to it (or not).

There is usually a low chance of a recession in any given year, but I think in 2024 it could be higher than usual.

Trump wins the election, and contrary to what the losing party always says, nothing really changes dramatically in the USA

*the first salary of a college graduate in economics in 2022 was the same, in Italy, that I started with back in 2004

[frugaldoc]

I predict that whatever I predict will prove incorrect. For example, while I think the VIX will hover at <15 for most of the year, that means that it will hit 40+ at some point.

[Henry]

1. The Magnificent 7 will continue to play out their game of thrones. They really don't care who wins this particular year as long as the show is not cancelled. Personally, I will not be buying NVDA, AAPL, META. On the fence of MSFT. Will add to GOOGL, TSLA, AMZN.

2. TSLA will have a 2006 APPL year. People don't want EV's. They want Teslas. And with Trump coming back to Grover Cleveland the world, Elon will lose his claim to craziest man on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

(3) Housing will remain FUBAR. People have kicked home ownership to the curb. Buy real estate stocks/Reits related to entertainment such as casinos;

[ether]

you can see the futures market for short term rates here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/intere ... -tool.html
-market is pricing in 7 cuts to 3.5% from 5.25%
-I think CPI will stay at 3%
-equities will go up 10% and long term rates will continue to fall
-the best case soft landing has occurred

[giskard]

1. The Magnificent 7 will continue to play out their game of thrones. They really don't care who wins this particular year as long as the show is not cancelled. Personally, I will not be buying NVDA, AAPL, META. On the fence of MSFT. Will add to GOOGL, TSLA, AMZN.

2. TSLA will have a 2006 APPL year. People don't want EV's. They want Teslas. And with Trump coming back to Grover Cleveland the world, Elon will lose his claim to craziest man on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

I also think chances are good TSLA catches up w/ rest of the leaders. Buying dips to get in position.

[ducknald_don]

-I think CPI will stay at 3%

That seems likely to me as well. We had a long period of very low inflation at least partly thanks to cheap imports from Asia. That could never go on forever, it has probably bottomed out now and may even reverse a little.

[giskard]

That seems likely to me as well. We had a long period of very low inflation at least partly thanks to cheap imports from Asia. That could never go on forever, it has probably bottomed out now and may even reverse a little.

It's starting to look like that might optimistic thinking now that the Red Sea is blocked for transit.

Idk though, may not matter much to US markets, its more of an issue for Europe.

[chenda]

It's starting to look like that might optimistic thinking now that the Red Sea is blocked for transit.

I was wondering if it's worth stocking up on certain things.

Although most of the essential, hard-to-substitute products I personally use (supplements and skin care) appear to be manufactured in Europe or North America.

[jacob]

I was wondering if it's worth stocking up on certain things.

This is always worth it.

[Henry]

It's only two weeks in, but I've started to frame my acceptance speech in anticipation of my TSLA take becoming an unanimous first ballot entry into the What On God's Green Earth Were They Fucking Possibly Thinking Hall of Fame. My plaque will hang amidst all the people who boarded the Oceangate and/or banged a Kardashian.

[chenda]

I think Boeing has finally reached rock bottom, and just needs to appoint a young, dynamic leader who can restore investor confidence and return the company to its once great heights.

Like Elon Musk perhaps.

[suomalainen]

I thought you said you were sober

[Henry]

The DT's must be posting.

[chenda]

I thought you said you were sober

[Slevin]

2. TSLA will have a 2006 APPL year. People don't want EV's. They want Teslas.

Yeah TSLA getting wrecked this year.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/sp ... uspension/

Hard to buy a vehicle which is known to be incredibly unreliable and which has a history of telling customers with brand new cars (owned less than a day) that known defective parts that break are not covered due to “previous damage”.

Repair costs are also 2-3x any other manufacturer. I’m baffled why anybody would buy one of these things (from the actual product perspective). The supercharger network is great, but now going to be unlocked, so not a clear winner there either.

Hertz also dropped them for the above reasons, also because nobody on vacation wants to deal with the hell that is EV charging in an unknown city (failed / broken / won’t take payment chargers everywhere that all have proprietary apps, and you can’t know if they will work or not before testing them out).

At least Tesla consistent that if you’re interacting with Tesla on any level (worker, consumer, etc), you know you are going to be treated like the garbage they think you are.

[Henry]

Personally, I will not be buying NVDA,

NVDA up 10% this year, adding $130 billion in market cap. Looks like 2024 is shaping up to be the year of The Fuckhenry.

[chenda]

This is always worth it.

The Panama canal has now started to dry up thanks to a drought, so both the world's shipping shortcuts are now being choked off.

[okumurahata]

@slevin, these kinds of comments about Tesla remind me of 2007 when the iPhone was released, and people complained about the buggy OS, expensive price, and insisted that a touchscreen would never replace the physical buttons of their BlackBerry, etc.

Maybe I’m wrong, and this post ages badly, but in my opinion, Tesla is heading to have a monopoly in charging EVs, software that is ahead of other manufacturers, and a rate of iteration far superior than traditional brands (e.g. materials that are improving as they go; the Model 3 in 2024 is not the same as the first one launched more than 5 years ago). I would treat it more like a tech company than a normal EV manufacturer.

Having said that, in my opinion, it is overpriced now, but it has a lot of room to grow if they do the right things. An inflection point would be if they launch a ~25k EUR car.