How is the FIRE movement doing?

[chenda]

I feel like nobody realizes the wealth that's available to them! It's the tragedy of comparing yourself only to those around you. We still have access to unimaginable wealth by almost any geographic or historical standard.

Yes! I was having lunch with a friend a few months back. She earns £40k a year and still lives in a shitty place and is continually in debt and spent the whole time whining about how difficult life is now and everything is going to shit and whawhawha and I'm like 'No Amy, life is ultra easy right now - you suck!'

But I've been telling her this for almost 20 years and she's only got fatter. What can a girl do ?

[7Wannabe5]

Yeah, most people are kind the aging female contestants on "The Golden Bachelor." Getting all dressed up in fancy clothes and competing in order to win or sorrowfully lose something you can easily get for free.

Meanwhile, here's another grandmother supporting herself and 6 children and grandchildren on less than $2/day, and she is happy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70BWP2k ... e=youtu.be

Of course, it's difficult to figure out whether being happy because you have 6 grandchildren who love you or being unhappy because some old guy didn't pick you as prettiest postmenopausal princess is more likely to contribute to the collapse of the planetary resource base.

[chenda]

Of course, it's difficult to figure out whether being happy because you have 6 grandchildren who love you or being unhappy because some old guy didn't pick you as prettiest postmenopausal princess is more likely to contribute to the collapse of the planetary resource base.

I just saw a documentary about an 80 year old women who lives alone in a remote off grid house in Donegal. She seemed happy enough and said her sex life had peaked post-menopause as there was no risk of pregnancy. When her husband died she just buried him in the back garden.

[Jean]

there is more goods, but real estate, is more expensive, and i think it is a key to happiness and thrust in the future for many people.

[jacob]

Yes! I was having lunch with a friend a few months back. She earns £40k a year and still lives in a shitty place and is continually in debt and spent the whole time whining about how difficult life is now and everything is going to shit and whawhawha and I'm like 'No Amy, life is ultra easy right now - you suck!'

Everything has become simpler (and cheaper) but that doesn't necessarily mean they have become easier. Simple, but not easy. One problem is the "anti-knowledge" I talked about above. It is simpler to find all kinds of financial information online on how budget, save, and invest compared to twenty years ago. It is, however, also simpler---even simpler---to find all kinds of information on instasnapfacetok about how you should spend all your money on "stuff you deserve". Choosing between knowledge and anti-knowledge is not easy.

I'm also tempted to claim that things have become less easy or at least we're less inclined to appreciate it because we don't have a frame of reference of how hard things can be. DIYing any project is a quick way to learn how simple it is just to buy it. It is really complicated (the opposite of simple) to make a toaster from scratch. A few weeks ago I stumbled into some HS math problems. One problem concerned doing a regression analysis on an exponential function (along with the usual whining about math being hard and wah wah tough teacher who actually make the students work for their grades"). My first thought was "holy shit, you're right, this problem is freshman university level in a quantitative field" (and grad school at the psych-department). However, scrolling down, it became clear that the HS students were simply supposed to plug the numbers into some software and press a button to get the magic result. The next few comments about how "they never bothered to learn the multiplication table because it was on the calculator" were surprising and depressing (to me). We're talking high school students who can now find the result of a nonlinear regression because calculators have made it simple but not know what 7*5 is because learning that by rote is still hard. So ... and here's my conclusion. If I tell such a student that "I spend $7000 per year and I have 150ish years of spending saved up", knowing my NW from this simple information is too hard a problem without "calculating" it. This explains why randos keep asking what my NW is. "All the information is there, but you don't see it".

I think a lot of Amys are like that. I think a lot of Amys also just like to complain. Complaining about money is socially sanctioned. Complaining about all the stuff you don't have and vacations you don't take is anti-sanctioned. Really not much different that how "not being good at math" is cool (we talked about cool) while "not being able to read" is shameful (although that's probably changing too with all the audiobooks).

*END old man rant before J+G hashtags me with an #IRP thus completing the circle of life.

[chenda]

there is more goods, but real estate, is more expensive, and i think it is a key to happiness and thrust in the future for many people.

In historical terms it's probably cheaper, inasmuch mass home ownership was a late 20th century phenomena, for better or worse.

@Jacob - very true. You wonder if Amy would benefit from living in a third world slum for a year or so. I don't mean poverty tourism, I mean actually living like the locals. Making 2 litres of water last all day and having to reuse old rags as sanitary towels. Amy's first hot shower back home would feel like an absurd luxury. I'm half joking of course but I think occasionally resetting the living standard datum level would be beneficial.

[7Wannabe5]

@chenda: "We Made a Garden" by Margery Fish, the memoir of her late mid-life marriage to a grouchy old man with whom she created a garden, and their constant squabbles over whether the paving should be completely cleared of vegetation or casually draped with flowering herbs, should be read by all women before entering into late mid-life marriage.

@Jean:

There are currently approximately 2 arable acres (.8 hectares) and $50,000 capital/wealth (inclusive of public/state assets) and 8.5 years (by adulthood )of education per human on the planet. IOW, this is approximately what you would give to each player at the beginning of a new equitable round of Monopoly (although, obviously, still putting aside other discriminatory factors such as IQ, beauty, caste, vigor, etc.)

An acre (unstacked as just one floor in a building) in Manhattan is currently priced at around $57.5 million (down 7% from last year) while an average acre of farmland in the U.S. is currently priced at around $4000 (up 7% from last year.) All other things being equal, the return on any kind of trade is well-correlated with number of electrical outlets per acre. IOW, your best bet for winning the game of Monopoly is to head for the city acreage.

Wall Street is located in Manhattan. Therefore, even if you are currently rough camping for free in the Hiawatha National Forest and gnawing on solar-dried venison and berries for your lunch, if you have $50,000 or more invested in the U.S. stock market, you are still de facto trading in the bright lights of the big city at maybe 1 degree of separation from best rate of return, and generating an income above the global median. This is the genius of ERE.

The question at hand, I believe, is whether the recently accelerated due to Covid pandemic distribution of functional "electrical outlets" to beaches, farm houses, and mountainsides all over the planet has significantly altered this correlation. For instance, if 40 hours/week working in an office with 45 minute communte is a big stick, but 20 hours/week working on the beach is a significantly smaller stick, AND working remotely also still provides "direct line to Manhattan" at lower degree of separation than passive investment, where might new break-even rate of return be found?

As somebody who is currently part-time employed at the task of educating disadvantaged children in basic mathematics, I do think depreciation of educational assets does come into play at some juncture, even though we tend to dismiss it in alignment with highly valuing individual liberty. This is the tension at Wheaton Level 5 which is magnified by the new plethora of WFH, gig, contract, etc. opportunities. A Bachelor's Degree is equivalent to 7.5 extra years over the current global median education or approximately 7.5 X $16,000 = $120,000 at minimum in the U.S. (not including loss of income due to time invested in studying, which would make this number much larger.) So, maybe you have $200,000 you saved invested in the stock market, and another $200,000 worth of education/training which you are depreciating due to early retirement; the new reality makes it very tempting to just plug your educational assets back in to "the city" for however many hours or however many pieces of work still seem interesting, enjoyable, or of value to general society.

We're talking high school students who can now find the result of a nonlinear regression because calculators have made it simple but not know what 7*5 is because learning that by rote is still hard.

Yeah, don't even get me started on this one. Just last week, I helped my disadvantaged students make personalized packs of flash cards using blank index cards and markers. Some of my affluent private high school students still use their fingers to add positive numbers, and adding negative numbers to positive numbers is the ultimate conceptual barrier which makes them auto-grab their calculators. Watch out folks if you're hoping a human without the aid of an AI will be able to successfully double your morphine dose when you find yourself in hospice nursing home in 2053.

It is really complicated (the opposite of simple) to make a toaster from scratch.

My sister and her study partner made a (very dangerous!!) toaster from scratch in the 6th grade. I did genetic experiments breeding mice. This was alternative education in the late 1970s, which allowed for students to design much of their own curriculum/projects.

[ffj]

@chenda

"You wonder if Amy would benefit from living in a third world slum for a year or so. I don't mean poverty tourism, I mean actually living like the locals. Making 2 litres of water last all day and having to reuse old rags as sanitary towels. Amy's first hot shower back home would feel like an absurd luxury. I'm half joking of course but I think occasionally resetting the living standard datum level would be beneficial."

It wouldn't take a year or two, more like a few weeks. It would stop* these nonsensical, first world fat people with iPhones, multiple changes of clothing, access to a roof over their head and clean water at the touch of a tap from complaining that they are poor and disadvantaged. The scale of what is considered "poor" over the range of almost 200 countries is staggering. Just having a proper context would help a lot.

* It wouldn't stop, haha. But for some it would create a level of gratitude that would preclude any sort of complaining.

[7Wannabe5]

having to reuse old rags as sanitary towels.

BTDT. Of course, in first world environment one could always just make use of public bathroom toilet paper stock and basic origami skills.

It wouldn't take a year or two, more like a few weeks. It would stop* these nonsensical, first world fat people with iPhones, multiple changes of clothing, access to a roof over their head and clean water at the touch of a tap from complaining that they are poor and disadvantaged. The scale of what is considered "poor" over the range of almost 200 countries is staggering. Just having a proper context would help a lot.

* It wouldn't stop, haha. But for some it would create a level of gratitude that would preclude any sort of complaining.

True, but in my experience, there is some danger in engaging in such experiments. For instance, when I tried to live off of only food found for free at my first urban permaculture project, and then one of the men I was dating picked me up and took me out for pancakes, I bonded to him pretty hard at primitive level.

Also, to cut the Amys of the first world a bit of slack, I do find in my social circle (or even my own functioning over time) that there is some correlation between tendency to complain and tendency to take on real responsibility beyond authority/ability-to-easily-afford, for better or worse. For instance, "Amy" will often also be the human who is spending $500/month buying medical care for an aging rescue dog with diabetes or spending what should be his fun retirement years caring for a special-needs abandoned step-grandchild and 95 year old mother-in-law. OTOH, humans who exhibit authority/license/dominance well beyond the level of responsibility they take on are less likely to complain in such a manner. IOW, there is a spectrum from Martyr to Villain or a balance between Caretaker and Bandit. I mean, it's easy to pick on whiny people who are fat, but do we really admire somebody who spends all of their life energy on maximizing their own physical fitness and/or net-worth with no other interesting or meaningful activity?

[Jin+Guice]

I meant more like each of us is almost definitely blind to the wealth we have. Being cognizant of it is near impossible when we're born into a world where a great challenge is calorie restriction and not calorie acquisition. It's also difficult when we are raised in a world of massive excess wealth, yet taught the path to happiness is to squander that wealth at a rate that reduces us to the lifestyle of peasants. Despite our wealth still struggling to meet our basic economic needs while ignoring our other needs.

I think it's less an issue of complaining or lack of gratitude and more an issue of pre-birth hedonic adaptation of both material wealth and expectation of material wealth.

Personally I've come to believe that all complaining can be solved by focusing on your "circle of control." If you do not control outcome you are free of responsibility and if you control outcome and thus have responsibility... you have control, so any complaining must be caused by some internal dissonance.

My chief complaint in both realms is that applying this knowledge is not nearly as simple as possessing it....

[daylen]

Just a little curiosity and access to the internet is all that is required to get lured down rabbit holes into the lifestyles of the less fortunate. There are vloggers everywhere scrambling for shock factors to hook that curiosity. Want to meet the homeless in city X or see how people in slum Y survive? Just be curious enough in the local homelessness situation and social media will bait you into learning about situations around the world. Though, this is cheating since you started with social media! You may need to use your imagination to put yourself in the shoes of someone struggling for survival (beige), of someone in a tribe struggling for survival (purple), or someone in a multi-tribal battleground struggling for survival (red).

[chenda]

BTDT. Of course, in first world environment one could always just make use of public bathroom toilet paper stock and basic origami skills.

Yes poor menstrual hygiene is a often ignored public health issue in many countries.

There is a fine line between the ungrateful Amys and those who actually have legitimate grievances. In fact just sending Amy to a crack house on a nearby sink estate for a night might be enough to reset her datum.

I wonder if the trick to a happy life is to only take on responsibilities which are well below your means.

[7Wannabe5]

Personally I've come to believe that all complaining can be solved by focusing on your "circle of control." If you do not control outcome you are free of responsibility and if you control outcome and thus have responsibility... you have control, so any complaining must be caused by some internal dissonance.

Yes, I think first level recognition of this is key. However, I think it comes up again at another level. Let's say that Atlas is a human with maximized Competence, and Amy is a human with maximized Caring. Most of the whining I read coming from the man-o-sphere is because Atlas didn't expect Amy to shrug too. Like a George Clooney character who spends all his life energy flying around the world making bank, but then has a total melt-down because his Mom didn't make a turkey for Thanksgiving this year.

I wonder if the trick to a happy life is to only take on responsibilities which are well below your means.

I'm gonna say yes at some level, but if you go too low watch out here comes nihilistic depression. I mean every responsbiliity you take on can also be seen as a challenge to extend your personal authority through competence. Caveat being that I am somebody who has read far more rescue-via-good-housekeeping novels than the average human. I like a lifestyle where I sometimes find myself helping a 6 year old urchin wash the filth off his hands. It feels more like progress than successfully querying a database.

[Jin+Guice]

Let's say that Atlas is a human with maximized Competence, and Amy is a human with maximized Caring. Most of the whining I read coming from the man-o-sphere is because Atlas didn't expect Amy to shrug too. Like a George Clooney character who spends all his life energy flying around the world making bank, but then has a total melt-down because his Mom didn't make a turkey for Thanksgiving this year.

So Atlas has an expectation of Amy, who he does not control, and when she shrugs and does not meet that expectation, Atlas complains, revealing his internal dissonance.

Perhaps I should have added that the internal dissonance is often wishing for control of something beyond your realm.

And the solution is for George to examine why he had the meltdown. In my imagination of George he would emphasize the lack of turkey, but (also in my imagination) it is likely that he feels uncared for... more internal dissonance to resolve.

[7Wannabe5]

@Jin+Guice:

Yes, but what I am trying to get at in muddled fashion is that at every level of development our rejection of the previous level may also mask our hidden dependencies/expectations of that level. The example offered would be an example of Orange/Modern rejecting yet still holding expectations of Blue/Traditional. Green post-modern culture rejects yet clearly still holds expectations of Orange/Modern culture,as stereotyped by Bohemian hippie trust fund baby. So, how, in what ways, does Yellow/Post-post-modern culture/theory reject yet still hold expectations of its Mother which is Green/Post-Modern? Why is it the case that the best known advocates of FIRE/ERE were born in Canada and Denmark, but ended up in the U.S.?

[ffj]

@7

I remember once I was bragging to a co-worker about how I had reduced my back-pack weight down twenty pounds utilizing ultra-light products and homemade gear. He looked at me and asked why I just didn't lose twenty pounds of body weight since I had plenty extra. I laughed because it was both true and funny and it knocked me down off my high-horse. A trifecta. Beautifully done.

My point was for the Amy's of the world who wouldn't have laughed at that example.

We all know people that have blind spots as to why they don't have money. Doesn't mean I don't get tired of hearing the same complaints over and over knowing full well why they are in their situation. If people are going to self-sabotage then it does them no good to be purposefully made unaware of larger contexts.

[7Wannabe5]

My point was for the Amy's of the world who wouldn't have laughed at that example.

Gotcha.

It has not infrequently happened to me that when I am complaining about something like the city not letting me live in my dilapidated camper on a vacant lot, somebody will say something to me like, "Why don't you just get a better job and an apartment?" and I might laugh and/or give him my semi-grouchy, "Don't bother me with your practicality" hand gesture. My honest reply would be "Because that's not the problem I find interesting right now." And I think you likely could have honestly made that reply too.

Also, there are no humans named Amy who are going to respond well to being told they could stand to lose 20 lbs. Do not try that at home, kids.

[macg]

Personally I've come to believe that all complaining can be solved by focusing on your "circle of control." If you do not control outcome you are free of responsibility and if you control outcome and thus have responsibility... you have control, so any complaining must be caused by some internal dissonance.

I agree with this. In my experience, not many other people do, though, lol.

[Jean]

responsability without authority is hell.

@7
uprooting oneself is not a reasonable demand. It's not because a lot of people leave far from their family, that it's normal.

[7Wannabe5]

responsability without authority is hell.

Apparently, you also have had the experience of being a substitute teacher in a 7th grade classroom in a very rough neighborhood

As I noted above, I absolutely agree with this as First Order practice, but sometimes it is applied in a very passive manner. For instance, in the U.S. in some regions it is in violation of code (authority) to reroute gray water, and in other regions it is in violation of code (authority)to not reroute gray water (in new build.) Clearly, somebody could use their physical authority as an individual to take on the risk (fines, imprisonment) of violating the code in their own dwelling space or they could make use of their limited authority as a citizen in an attempt to push forward changes to the code. For instance, one thing I discovered when working on a similar issue related to one of my permaculture projects was that pretty much nobody ever attended the public meetings of the local water board.

Similarly, I could just give up on controlling a wild roomfull of 13 year olds, or I could learn and practice the skills that would increase my authority.