Based on this, even the concept of FIRE itself is highly modernistic and thus is something of an obstacle to ERE2 if pursued too strongly. This is why, in my opinion, the MMM project, while being wildly successful in spreading the idea of frugality, has morphed into something of a FatFIRE project - because the focus has generally been on achieving the "success" of becoming an early retiree.
Eventually, when the crisis of modernity arrives, when FIRE is increasingly out of reach for most people, these values will no longer function.
Tangentially, I wanted to ask those, who are paying attention to the FIRE movement at large, how it is doing these days? I largely ignore it, but I have noticed that interest in the ERE blog/book has dropped off since the market started trending sideways around 2021Q1. Before that it had gone sufficiently mainstream that many newcomers just saw it as the go-to place to learn how to get rich by investing in a somewhat more mature fashion than fractional shares of game stonks. Basically, "how to become FI" replaced "how to become a millionaire". No interest in the RE part and of course the idea of "saving more", when one could just "work harder and invest smarter", had been dropped.
So what's going on with the FIRE movement these days? Still strong?
MMM was in a Netflix documentary last year, so it's definitely still got some momentum.
I do think remote work has shifted the equation a lot. The option makes achieving some freedom while working much more realistic.
Anecdotally - the combination of inflation, rising interest rates, and poor market returns has been financially discouraging. I find myself with increased loss aversion, even hanging onto worthless possessions.
Though I have enough, I "know" I used to have so much more. It feels like bullshit, a forced wealth transfer from me to someone else. I could see finding that especially discouraging while still working.
I feel like a lot of my friends who used to be interested in FIRE are now interested in Ramit Sethi. His philosophy is a lot less frugal and much more about orienting your life and spending towards your priorities. I think in the mindset of some being set back from FIRE through the heavy inflation and lifestyle changes (a bunch of us hitting our 30s, having kids, etc), his stuff scratches an itch around “be happy with the life that you have” versus “get out of the corporate grind” that may at least feel less feasible given recent market action.
I agree with Scott that remote work has been a huge game changer for many in my social circle. Also, at least in my neck of the woods, the labor market in general has gained a lot of power since the lock-down, so other options and opportunities beyond remote work are being created, sometimes by the workers themselves, who now more fully realize that "At will" employment is a two-way contract. Also, in the 13 years since "ERE" was published, the youngest Baby Boomers have aged from 46 to 59, thereby rendering many activiities stereotypically associated with retirement completely uncool. Some arguably valuable to society, relatively low-paying jobs, like mine tutoring disadvantaged children, will not be filled in the current market except by otherwise motivated semi-volunteers. So, in a way, due to some not entirely unrelated trends beyond FIRE, it kind of seems like the question "What if everybody did it?" might have to be answered somewhat sooner than later.
OTOH, my quick book-dealer's skim of the market would indicate that your top professional (very Modern/Orange) direct competitor in many categories would be Rob Berger and his "Retire Before Mom and Dad: The Simple Numbers Behind Financial Freedom." which is doing quite well numbers-wise.
workers themselves, who now more fully realize that "At will" employment is a two-way contract.
Also, in the 13 years since "ERE" was published, the youngest Baby Boomers have aged from 46 to 59, thereby rendering many activities stereotypically associated with retirement completely uncool.
OTOH, my quick book-dealer's skim of the market would indicate that your top professional (very Modern/Orange) direct competitor in many categories would be Rob Berger and his "Retire Before Mom and Dad: The Simple Numbers Behind Financial Freedom." which is doing quite well numbers-wise.
Quote 1: Good point, traditional employment involved surrendering agency in trade for protection. The two-way contract seems more like a self-employed lense.
Quote 2: I’d argue that some of the self-centered, emotionally regressive distractions of Boomers (and some Silents) never held appeal. Comparisons to others and being seen as having “made it to the good life” were the major carrot.
Quote 3: Seems like the Boomer strategy is being recycled and repurposed.
I do hear many of the early FIRE people, and some new people, get a podium for saving a bit less and spending a bit more - with some intention behind it. You hear some of the early people who worked very hard, spent very little, then reached retirement and quit their job state things like: "I wish I had gone slower" or "I wish I had known that I would still make some money in retirement, then I could have quit the bad corporate job a little earlier". So I feel when previously FIRE was about working very very hard until you hit your full and completely secure FI number, now there are more people who are calling attention to creating a better life for yourself before you're FI and also thinking about what life you will want once you're FI - or considering slowing down at some point on your path to FI.
But... if you keep softening the message you'll end with the awesome idea to create the life you want now, live a little, put aside 10% of your money for retirement and who knows, maybe around age 60 (with some luck) to 75 (with some bad luck) you'll be able to retire!
And maybe then somebody called Jake Lind Fisher will come along and talk about going all in and getting your freedom much, much sooner. And some guy called Mr Money Muscle will encourage people to use the car less often and spend less money on stupid shit.
Could the less spectacular returns and the 10%+ inflation in the EU of 2022 have shaken a lot of chaff out of FIRE? Maybe some people thought they could have their cake and eat it? With spectacular stock market gains like most of 2009 - 2021, that actually worked for quite a few.
I notice a few things observing a local FIRE forum:
- more defeatist younger people
- more of a willingness to invest in bonds instead of equity
- very little room for frugality, growing hostility even to the idea with some. Some in this FIRE forum even go as far as complaining, and I quote, "What I find depressing is thinking about all the nice stuff these people deny themselves during the best years of their lives to save half of their mediocre salaries".
Now with lots of people discovering ERE through FIRE, FIRE losing mindshare is certainly not a good thing for ERE.
Yeah, it does feel like the sentiment around FIRE has changed quite a bit. Here are a few theories:
1. Google made a major algorithm change in 2019 that prioritized "Expertise, Authoritativeness and Trustworthiness" (EAT) and specifically targeted sites that talk about things that can impact "Your Money or Your Life". No, not the book. But topics like current events, medicine, and finance that it felt could have a high real-world impact on searchers. I know that my traffic immediately fell and that other far more prominent finance-oriented blogs like Monevator experienced the same as Google decided to push people towards mainstream sources like Morningstar and Fidelity for investing information. The end result is that any ideas outside of the mainstream were penalized in search, and it would not surprise me at all if the same thing happened with retirement/FI information. Long story short, many of the most insightful FI sources are likely being throttled in the name of "safety".
2. For better or worse, it feels like FI doesn't really have a leader at the moment. I got on board right about the time that Jacob was handing the baton to MMM for the everyday writing. But now that MMM has shifted from talking about saving and biking and building your own stuff to living in planned communities with a luxury SUV, I would argue he is no longer in touch with the mass FI market. The MMM forum has noticeably shifted to a smaller FatFIRE group, which anecdotally points to a clear shift in his audience from broad appeal to something more niche. Of course, MMM is free to live his life in any way that makes him happy! But I think having someone for the average person to look up to would help, and there's room for someone new to step up.
3. The economy is no longer in easy growth mode, which affects things in two ways. First, when you're struggling to pay rent and feed your family, luxury ideas like financial independence are the first to go. And second, I think even among the self-motivated and successful FIRE crowd, a lot of them got lazy with the default "VTI and Chill" idea and never really learned about proper risk management. So when a real market downswing finally arrived, they weren't prepared and are more likely to just keep working and view FI as unrealistic right now.
4. Related to 3, I think the over-simplified financialization of FI probably hurt its resilience in the long run. When the larger FI message shifted away from "don't be so dependent on income" to "put your faith in taking 4% out of VTI every year", I think the concept got a little too watered down. It reached more people, but it didn't necessarily teach them all they need to confidently retire when markets aren't booming.
5. I also think there are some generational things going on. FI took off when the corporate/career/pension mindset shifted to the idea of independently financing your own freedom. But young people today are raised in a much more victim-oriented culture, which naturally makes them more likely to reject any self-empowerment pitch out of hand. It may take new approaches to reconnect with different generations.
In any case, my own FIRE is going fine. I'm always thankful for Jacob and the group here for helping to point me in the right direction. So even as things change around us, keep doing what you're doing. It really does make a difference.
+1 to the observation that Ramit Sethi and WFH have changed the landscape. I basically never hear about frugality now. It's more about making a lot of money to just go buy whatever your priorities are. I think it's the fact frugality doesn't sell nearly as well in the new, image-drive social media landscape as does sitting on the beach in Tropical Country X and drinking some form of alcohol. Plus, if you don't have kids and have a high paying WFH job, it basically cuts one's obligations in half anyway, so the dominant paradigm is that you now might as well be rich and buy a Tesla.
In other words, opportunity cost is higher because WFH is a better deal. Frugality doesn't further your social standing, so it's seen as an outdated life strategy/just missing out on opportunities. I also think this is why FIRE people sometimes heavily invest in other markers of wealth (high levels of fitness, travel, etc, all ways to broadcast you have money).
Some great ideas above. Only thing I'd add is that I wonder if one of the pitfalls of traditional FIRE is the fixation on "freedom-from". Even some of the popular bloggers appeared to fixate on "freedom-from" and then ran into "now what?" I have gone through a similar mental exercise. You can't plan your life (or politically, your nation) around a negative definition. "I'm not [a corporate slave]" only excludes one possible choice, but in order to do something, you have to make a positive choice to fill the void. So, when those (many) of us without a "freedom to" drive find out that FIRE doesn't solve the real problem of "what do you want to do", they go back to work or do some other choose-your-own-adventure from a more traditional menu.
I would say that most of my older colleagues with whom I've had the "why don't you retire already" conversation have responded with "what would I do all day?" "Anything you want" doesn't resonate with them. I used to think they suffered from institutionalization or a lack of imagination. Maybe it's generational, I dunno, but I see it in the younger bloggers and commenters as well. Perhaps religion plays a part in this as well, either by elites controlling the masses for their own economic benefit or by inspiring meaning and community, whatever your priors. So in a more secular society, jobs may provide those community ties that may otherwise be lacking.
To echo the comments of others, I'd argue that the period from COVID until now has been pretty much the best time to be a full time white collar employee in recent memory. Keep in mind that the stereotypical FIRE adherent is a knowledge worker and many of the MMM followers worked in careers with higher than median salaries like tech, finance, business, etc. Many now work from home, work a lot less hours than they used to, and in some cases get paid even more! They've had the flexibility to do all of the traveling they dreamed of in "retirement". Some of them realized that this traveling gets boring after a while, so they decide to just stick to buying nicer things and climbing the career ladder. Others like the balance and flexibility of WFH, so they are just going to continue along the same path. Unemployment has remained low which has given workers the most bargaining power in ~40 years. Why make the "sacrifice" for an early retirement when the current lifestyle is so great?
One more thing: we might also be losing sight of the younger generation as they flock to errrrrr.... TikTok and other social media that most of us (?) hardly look at. Blogs and forums may be too old-fashioned and maybe too slow? So there could be something happening there and it would take a while for "the rest of the world" to notice.
One more thing: we might also be losing sight of the younger generation as they flock to errrrrr.... TikTok and other social media that most of us (?) hardly look at. Blogs and forums may be too old-fashioned and maybe too slow? So there could be something happening there and it would take a while for "the rest of the world" to notice.
Most of the Gen Z/Millenial platforms don't lend themselves very well to communicating information with any amount of depth or accuracy. TikTok, Snapchat, and Instagram are terrible. YouTube can be ok because it allows long form, but usually shorter videos are what get the most $$$. X/Twitter is also kinda terrible but I've found it really depends on what niche you're in, so I have no idea what the personal finance niche is like these days. Forums have largely been displaced by Discord, which means discussions are happening behind closed doors. Blogging has been replaced by posting content on social media platforms. I will note that there are a few personal finance content creators I think are half decent at recommending frugality, in particular you can check out The Graham Stephan Show and Caleb Hammer on YouTube. Both shows tend to roast younger people for their stupid spending, which I think is the contemporary equivalent of when MMM used to come up with things like "car clown" and "complainypants" on his blog. I see clips from these shows showing up on short form platforms like TikTok and Snapchat, which means they are reaching younger viewers.
Last edited by white belt on Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I do think the impact of TikTok and other outlets is significant. Some of it is just a stage of life difference, but I have found the ERE/FIRE message feels out of touch for the younger generation. I think it's a mix of frugality just not selling well and the fact they have different priorities/a different social reality. It might change as this group ages and has kids, though.
What I've noticed from kids I know in high school/college is that their world is more complicated than when I was that age. When I was going to college, I worked through high school to save then just went to the local state school and called it even. Then when I graduated, I just went to whatever local software company to work.
The world is more networked now, so this means there's more competition for top slots at certain universities or jobs, especially for fields that are more competitive. You combine this with the World of Images that is the contemporary internet, and it becomes a mix of having to compete more, constantly see people who have more than you, and also be less happy with settling for whatever (possibly hollowed out) local options exist. This makes frugality/simple living an unappealing strategy due to the opportunity cost of potentially being a top winner as well as the fact the "average" slot has gotten worse.
I do think the impact of TikTok and other outlets is significant. Some of it is just a stage of life difference, but I have found the ERE/FIRE message feels out of touch for the younger generation. I think it's a mix of frugality just not selling well and the fact they have different priorities/a different social reality. It might change as this group ages and has kids, though.
What I've noticed from kids I know in high school/college is that their world is more complicated than when I was that age. When I was going to college, I worked through high school to save then just went to the local state school and called it even. Then when I graduated, I just went to whatever local software company to work.
I think that a lot of this is just the reality that younger generations as a whole are economically worse off than their parents generation. These in turn breeds a sense of apathy, hopelessness, perhaps even nihilism towards things like personal finance. Baby Boomers have basically shown an unwillingness to pass the baton so are quite literally still clogging up positions of power and influence as they claw every last bit of money/resources from the rest of society. In theory, all those resources should get passed down to future generations, in reality that just means the rich stay rich and the poor get poorer. People also live so long that it's not unusual to wait until your 60's to receive an inheritance from a passing parent.
ETA: Even if you do care about personal finance, why care about reducing debt when you know the government will either forgive it or just inflate it away?
As far as I can tell, the message that bloggers put out was "anyone can do this," but the message that people received was "a specific kind of highly compensated knowledge worker can do this."
I'd imagine that the next big frontier for FIRE is shifting from the salaried worker demographic to the millennials-inheriting-dead-boomer-hordes demographic.
I guess it depends on what one means by "how is it doing" but I think the FIRE movement successfully entered mainstream financial news and conversations. CNBC has a YouTube channel focused specifically on FIRE stories and FIRE has been featured on PBS Newshour multiple times, along with more attention from platforms like NETFLIX.
Someone like Paula Pant went from talking about FIRE with J Money on her early podcasts to interviewing guests like Dan Ariely, Bill Bengen, Daniel Pink and Arthur Brooks.
I'm surprised how often I hear it referenced in podcasts and conversations that don't focus specifically on financial content. I've been particularly interested in watching the intersection between FIRE and the personal development space. There seems to be overtones of SemiERE, or at least some flavor of it, with this overlap. Less of a focus on complete financial freedom, and more of a focus on developing a solid financial foundation in order to pursue opportunities for more meaningful work. In contrast to @AE, I've continued to observe quite a bit of focus on frugality in these conversations, with the notion that a lot of material pursuits won't bring happiness.
I am not sure the media outlets are reflecting the on the ground reality. I know more people doing the nomadic thing all the time. I think work from home and geo arbitrage has made it easier to back out of full time paid employment and into something else.
Also when traveling I notice that some people’s style is to go nuts for a week and splurge on everything. Other people just live about the same as they do at home just in a different place.
I’d argue that some of the self-centered, emotionally regressive distractions of Boomers (and some Silents) never held appeal. Comparisons to others and being seen as having “made it to the good life” were the major carrot.