Mosquito borne diseases

[jacob]

Heads up for those with long term plans for southern Europe.

As the subtropical bands expand, vector diseases move increasingly northwards. Here are some European maps.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-even ... es-species

The eastern US much of it being formerly swampy has all windows covered with screens + general advice not to leave standing water outside (breeding grounds). This is coming to southern Europe soon enough. In terms of quality of life, window screens make houses less drafty and harder to air out during heat waves.

Aedes skeeters are about 1.5cm long and have white/black (zebra) stripes. The Aegypti variant famously carries malaria.

[Ego]

There is a reason why we do not see major long-term outbreaks of the various flaviviruses in the developed world. For an aedes mosquito to become infected with dengue, zika, yellow fever or chikungunya it must first gorge on a blood meal from a previously infected human. It then must feed on the uninfected person to infect them. The same is true of the anopheles mosquito that spreads the parasite that causes malaria.

We live 15 miles from the busiest border crossing in the world and many who live south of the border come from areas where the various flaviviruses are endemic. Individual mosquitos only range a few hundred feet from their breeding ground so we don't have to worry about swarms of infected mosquitos crossing the border but we do have 70,000 northbound vehicles and 20,000 northbound pedestrians crossing everyday from the largest of the three crossings. So it is fairly likely that some of those people will be infected and yet we don't have outbreaks because our county Public Health and Vector Control departments work. I suspect the same is true (likely better) in Europe.

[jacob]

These are good points. The existence of a vector, whether it's mosquitos or water droplets from breathing in the company of others, doesn't create the disease. It merely makes it possible to spread it. As long as infected people are isolated and treated before they can infect >1 other, everything is under control.

My main concern is that these diseases are novel to people's current habits. For example, there someone around 0-2 cases of plague (yes, actual plague) in the US every year. However, since it's relatively rare/unfamiliar, it doesn't easily gets diagnosed. Other diseases are confused with allergies and the common cold. Given recent experience, my faith in the institutional technology we've created to deal with these issues isn't very high.

Anyhow... here's malaria making its entrance: https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 023-06-27/

[chenda]

My understanding is Malaria was once just as common in temperate climates as tropical climates. Siberia had the worse recorded outbreak of Malaria in the 1930s. However successful eradication programmes in cooler climates led it to be associated as a tropical disease. (Oddly, colder countries tend to be richer than hotter ones)

[IlliniDave]

My understanding is Malaria was once just as common in temperate climates as tropical climates.

That's true, at least in N America--basically the entire US east of the Rockies up into Canada was native habitat for malaria well into the 19th century. It was finally eradicated sometime after WWII, unfortunately I believe through widespread use of DDT and other pesticides.

https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/histo ... on_us.html

[jacob]

Recall that the US is actually quite a bit more southern than Europe. The US/Canada border is at the same latitude as Paris, France. It's only 50 years since Italy was declared malaria free. But it's coming back there too: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/mala ... er-n798671

[Ego]

My main concern is that these diseases are novel to people's current habits. ....

Given recent experience, my faith in the institutional technology we've created to deal with these issues isn't very high.

Understood. Given recent experience, the likelihood of extreme overreaction is far greater than underreaction. Also, given the fact that the national NPR is running a long story about these five cases, every hour on the hour, tells me that the stoking of fear is an important element here.

There are very effective treatments for Malaria. Bill & Melinda will be given journalistic ovations for distributing the drugs for free to the developing world and will perhaps short circuit criticism for other things.

And my germ phobic perma-masking tenants now have an new thing to obsess/compulse about.

[chenda]

@Ego - We should hope that it's resurgence in the west will rekindle efforts to eradicate it globally, which could have been done decades ago like smallpox.

[Ego]

@chenda, having spent a lot of time in malarial zones I am highly doubtful of a public health solution. I believe vector control will eventually solve it. Trouble is, lately that process is one step forward, two steps back.

[chenda]

@chenda, having spent a lot of time in malarial zones I am highly doubtful of a public health solution. I believe vector control will eventually solve it. Trouble is, lately that process is one step forward, two steps back.

Vaccines seem a promising route.

https://www.who.int/initiatives/malaria ... d%20Malawi.

[icefish]

This really is a thing to consider for many places. I live in the driest state in the driest (inhabited) continent. Mosquito-borne diseases aren't much of a problem here! But last year we had Japanese encephalitis appear for the first time on record, and it's been spreading. Vaccination for it is shifting from being purely a preventative measure for travellers heading overseas, to being a standard vaccination for locals, with resulting supply issues.