Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

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flying_pan
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by flying_pan »

As somebody who lived in Europe and now lives in the US (and I am getting the citizenship: my home country, Russia, is completely off the rails, so basically anything developed is better) I think US is very homogeneous, and Europe is more culturally diverse. E.g. my small town in Oregon is not very different in mindset from a small town somewhere in Michigan, these people grew up with similar textbooks, on the same movies and TV shows, same books. I know it is common to say it's very different, but then people bring some small town in Texas vs Portland, Oregon; while you can do the same in every other country with small town/big city comparison.

But anyway, I agree that staying in Germany or moving to Canada are probably the least disruptive options.

macg
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by macg »

chenda wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 6:59 am
The loss of reproductive rights is a very real delineation. As it is in Poland and Ireland.
Agreed on this. Fundamental changes in people's rights like the overturning of RvW is a very real delineation, and would certainly make some US states more/less desirable to live in.

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Jean
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

i would like this topic to survive, please stay out of topic suppression territory.

chenda
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

flying_pan wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:13 am
my small town in Oregon
I have never been to Oregon but it looks nice. I know someone who lives in Eugene and speaks highly of it.

prudentelo
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by prudentelo »

I will go far to say no one knows a country they didnt live in as an ordinary person for at least a couple (more than one) years

Few Europeans really know anything about USA. Vice-versa in so far as EUrope is even a country (it is not).

US political segregation is at the most local level. State differences are overblown but it would be hard to survive in a workplace where you are the only Red/Blue. This does not happen in, say, Netherlands, maybe unless you support a far right party.

But USA is actually one of the most centralized IMO above this local informal level. States have little real meaning. Which of course is why it is possible to easily move between them to take advantage of small life optimizations they do allow

To return to first point: you dont really know if you will fit somewhere you never lived. If you are 20, can explore. If you are 40, kind of big risk. Even just to try it. Also often no longer possible (no more working holiday visa, graduate study, teach English, and other "easy in").

So, fleeing country should be considered some desperate act responding to imminent need. Guessing that German economy will be better or worse than New Zelana din 20 years is more like taking your money to Monaco and putting on black

chenda
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

The nice thing about FI is you can try out different countries and see if they suit you or not. Try it out for a few months or even a few years. Or do seasonal migration. It also makes issues of integration much less important as you are not having to earn money or any of that nonsense.

flying_pan
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by flying_pan »

prudentelo wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:48 pm
I will go far to say no one knows a country they didnt live in as an ordinary person for at least a couple (more than one) years

To return to first point: you dont really know if you will fit somewhere you never lived. If you are 20, can explore. If you are 40, kind of big risk. Even just to try it. Also often no longer possible (no more working holiday visa, graduate study, teach English, and other "easy in").

So, fleeing country should be considered some desperate act responding to imminent need. Guessing that German economy will be better or worse than New Zelana din 20 years is more like taking your money to Monaco and putting on black
This is a really great reply. As somebody who lived in several countries, I'd also add that for some people integration can be real hard. It seems that the author won't have issues with languages, but even without that problem, it can be hard to adjust to local culture. In that regard USA shines in my experience (Canada should probably be similar), as people are used to see new faces from all over the world and don't bother you too much because of that, so integration seems to be easy. Most of them are also okay with you voicing your concerns/local ideas.

Getting second passport is a good resilient strategy in itself (there is a thread about it: viewtopic.php?t=2497), so if you have an opportunity and willing to do so (because all the visa forms, moving your stuff, rent locally, deal with local government can be quite stressful), then I don't see any harm in trying to do so. Moving to a place where one spouse knows a lot (Canada for the author) reduces stress and efforts significantly.

chenda
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

Sri Lanka is providing us with a real time case study in what happens when a country fails. People are queuing up outside passport offices to get their passports renewed so they can flee the country. Always keep your passport renewal up to date.

WFJ
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by WFJ »

This might devolve into a "My favorite ice cream flavor is the best" type discussion. YMMV and reminds me of an old story.

New resident comes to town and stops at the diner at the edge of city limits and asks a long time local "What's it like here?" Old timer responds, "What was life like where you are from?" New resident respond "People were terrible, dishonest, life was hard and frustrating". Old timer "It's the same here. Another new resident come to the diner asks, "What is life like here?", old timer, "What was life like where you are from". Response "People were great, we had good neighbors, a pleasant life, good social life and a healthy life" Old timer, "It's the same here".

Seraph
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Seraph »

I moved to Germany (Berlin) a bit over a year ago from Romania (Bucharest). Granted I was betting on Nord Stream 2 being opened and for CDU/ CSU to win the chancellor elections shortly after my move, but even in the light of more recent events I do not believe the German economy will decline so drastically over the mid-term. My opinion is the next 1-3 years will be difficult in different measures for the entire "western" world, including Germany which has its own set of challenges to overcome.

It doesn't help to compare life in Germany 20-30 years ago to how it is today either, it is what it is, for better or worse. Germany is also large enough to maybe try another Bundesland or city, either closer to France (for electricity) or to Austria, like Bavaria (for gas- even though that might fall off what with all the bickering about the storage facility in Haidach). Or Hamburg / Bremen if they will actually build those LNG terminals anytime soon, I just can't stand the weather there but that's another story.

As German speakers, me and my SO considered Zurich / Berlin / Munich / Vienna and decided on Berlin as Zurich provides more limited professional opportunities (as a Software Developer not really keen on working in the banking sector)- also too expensive for what it provides in our opinion-- and Vienna, while a nice city, provides with lower salaries on average in my field than Berlin for example. I won't start on Munich and Bavarians in general, let's just say we wouldn't have adapted culturally over there :mrgreen: In short, we are very happy with the decision we made, and we were pretty much integrated before moving in anyway (so many years behind us of speaking the language, working with Germany, dozens of trips all over, many acquaintances in various areas). It also helps that Berlin is such a multicultural city and quite welcoming to expats.

Most Germans I've met who wanted to move were either in the USA or the Netherlands / Denmark camp. A country is at the end of the day made up of people, and the majority of Germans are too self-deprecating for their own good. "Jammern auf hohem Niveau" is really a lifestyle here I've only ever encountered maybe in the UK ;) . Having a bit more faith in the potential of the country and its people (politicians will always be politicians, nobody who has lived long enough has any faith or confidence in them anyway) might make you think twice about moving out for good.

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unemployable
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by unemployable »

Betting against the US is on a 246-year losing streak now

Campitor
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Campitor »

The US will be the #1 most resilient country in the near future. The Geography, resources, talent pool, economics, and military provides a giant hedge against most issues. Canada and Mexico will share in the benefits provided by their US neighbor.

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Jean
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

us has everything domesticaly on short term, and easy expansion possibilities in canada for when global warmings consequences get too anoying.
As an imfividual, i'de just avoid buying real estate in places that will suffer from gw during my life.

chenda
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

Campitor wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:09 pm
Canada and Mexico will share in the benefits provided by their US neighbor.
I'm not sure Mexico will benefit. Aside from all its other problems it's running out of water, like much of the US south west. The Colorado River is drying up which provides water and power to both countries. Ground water is heavily depleted. Much of Mexico is in drought with water being rationed.

Meanwhile a devastating crisis has begun in South Asia. Sri Lanka was the canary in the coal mine. India and Pakistan have started to face serious droughts and heatwaves, with harvest failures becoming more common. 1.5 Billion people with no where to relocate to. China too is been hammered.

Its hard to be positive about the future. Its more of a case of looking for the least worse areas.

@jean agreed. If you want to live in a vulnerable area rent don't buy let someone else carry the risk.

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Ego
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Ego »

chenda wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:02 pm
I'm not sure Mexico will benefit.
I wonder which characteristics will prove to be more valuable in the future. Will robust economies with strong militaries but incredibly fragile people do better or worse that corrupt economies with weak militaries but resilient people who are accustomed to hardship, disruption and challenges?

Mexico certainly has its share of problems, but the people are not fragile.

sky
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by sky »

It is unfortunate that there is a wall between the US and Mexico. Imagine a North American Union similar to the European Union. That would boost the economies of all countries involved.

ralfy
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by ralfy »

"DRIVING GLOBAL GROWTH: Key industries in emerging markets by 2050"

https://impact.economist.com/perspectiv ... vfinal.pdf

Other examples are CIVETS, EAGLE, MINT, and other configurations that are part of BRICS and emerging markets.

chenda
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

@ego thats a good question.

I think Jacob's rule-of-thumb advice was to live at least 45 degrees north. And I suppose 45 south although that excludes everything in the southern hemisphere except New Zealand and Patagonia. Tasmania might be close enough.

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Seppia
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Seppia »

Ego wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:27 pm
I wonder which characteristics will prove to be more valuable in the future. Will robust economies with strong militaries but incredibly fragile people do better or worse that corrupt economies with weak militaries but resilient people who are accustomed to hardship, disruption and challenges?

Mexico certainly has its share of problems, but the people are not fragile.
My 2c:
One of the superpowers of humans is adaptability.
I would bet it would take less time for spoiled westerners to get used to hardship than for Mexico to build a good economy and/or a credible military.

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Jean
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

I agree with seppia.
Even Pigs turn back to boars in a matter of month if they have to live like boars.
Some might not have the potential, butbi think most does.

I'de rather be stuck in a desert island with spoiled midwesterners than hardship trained middle eastern.

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