Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Simple living, extreme early retirement, becoming and being wealthy, wisdom, praxis, personal growth,...
User avatar
Jean
Posts: 1886
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 8:49 am
Location: Switzterland

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

i'll try to get some hookers for our president then.

prudentelo
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:55 am

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by prudentelo »

Germany is great place to be 55 or 60 today*.

All other trends, demographic, energy policy, security, not looking so good.

Very "generous" welfare insurances paid by current worker to current retiree. Demographic perfect storm combines with energy and seucirty problems destroying budget surplus and disposable income. Good place to be 35?

Of course, nice place now and "lot of ruin in a nation"




*edit: only if you participate in their government retirement program (which exclude ERE even for citizens, to my understanding)

WFJ
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:32 am

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by WFJ »

fireeu wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:11 pm
Hey folks! I am from Germany (wife is Canadian) and we are thinking already for a few years now to leave Germany and look for something else. As its more and more clear, Germany is at the brink of loosing its economic power, with dire consequences for the population. I want to make a move before that happens and currently evaluating countries.

The United States is (probably next to China and other eastern countries) the only one on the list which I wouldn't move. Did somebody here already make a list of countries they would consider or considering moving to?

I could think of:

- Canada
- Switzerland
- New Zealand
-...

Any feedback is appreciated!
I would suggest reading "The Logic of Failure" (ironically written by a German Professor) as you are falling for many biases with your decision process. Practically speaking and in general, if female SO other wants to move back to their home country/city, do it or find a good divorce attorney.

US will be the last developed nation standing. Despite its vast size and amazing diversity of living conditions (Nor Cal to rural MS), it might take someone 20 tries before they find a good location fit in the US (or Canada-Toronto-Vancouver-Montreal-Calgary). Generalizing the US is like generalizing Asia; "China, HK, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea must be similar because they are neighbors". States are this different in the US.

User avatar
Seppia
Posts: 2009
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Seppia »

WFJ wrote:
Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:11 pm
Generalizing the US is like generalizing Asia; "China, HK, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea must be similar because they are neighbors". States are this different in the US.
I very much disagree with that statement.
The USA is much more homogeneous than “Asia” or “Europe”.
It’s actually one of its key advantages geopolitically.
Sure Texas is in a way very different than Northern California or NYC, but there are a million more things in common relative to, say, Vietnam and South Korea, or Portugal and Serbia.

User avatar
Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1669
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@Seppia

Maybe so but the increasing balkanization of the states is real. The amount of belligerence I have been on the receiving end of in blue states has palpably increased in the last 6 years and especially the last 2-3. You can see it in huge numbers of people migrating from blue to red states, and no it is not all attributable to remote work.

Kimber Manufacturing left NY for Alabama. Smith and Wesson is leaving Massachusetts for Tennessee, etc etc. And the people in the blue states watching people leave for red states are gleefully shrieking “good we do not need you!” even despite contrary evidence indicating that many of the people leaving are in fact very much needed, but that is how intense their ideology has become. Anyone familiar with me knows I am no fan of Citadel but Ken Griffin packed up for Florida and left Chicago. What was their mayor’s reaction? “Good we do not need you!”

What European countries seem to have in common if not languages is a commitment to complete centralized control. I would even say the blue states in the USA have more in common with Europe/Canada/Australia/New Zealand than they do with USA red states.

zbigi
Posts: 968
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by zbigi »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:49 pm

What European countries seem to have in common if not languages is a commitment to complete centralized control. I would even say the blue states in the USA have more in common with Europe/Canada/Australia/New Zealand than they do with USA red states.
That may be true for this on specific dimension you focus on. But there are many others, which make lumping up 30+ European countries into one "Europe" a non-sequitur, such as:
- willingness to work hard
- respect for the law (in some places it's top notch, in others it's on the level of the third-world countries)
- respect for government institutions (same as above)
- models of government (parliamentary vs president, monarchy or no monarchy)
- strength of family ties (from murders to avenge family in Albania to super-weak ties in Sweden)
- hierarchy of values in general, mostly individualism/materialism vs family-based collectivism
- attitutes toward military and military service
- levels of entrepreneurship
- attitudes towards science, engineering, philosophy (e.g. worshipped in France and Germany, while seen as something for losers in the UK)
- levels of materialism
- levels of cultural penetration by US corporations and people's attitudes towards them (e.g. McDonalds and Starbuckses everywhere in Poland vs much less of them in Italy, France or Czech Republic)
- willingness to relax and take life easy ("what will be will be") vs being serious and responsible most of of the time
- attitudes towards religions (these also differ a lot between US states)
- fatalism or optimism when thinking about the future
- levels of guilt (off the charts in Germany, non-existent in many other countries)
- levels of resentment caused by history (high in formerly opressed countries, low in former opressors or countries which had it relatively easy)
Last edited by zbigi on Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:06 am, edited 2 times in total.

ducknald_don
Posts: 320
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by ducknald_don »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:49 pm
What European countries seem to have in common if not languages is a commitment to complete centralized control.
I don't think so.

Of course Europe has the EU but not every European country is a member of the EU. Not every member of the EU is using the Euro. There seems to be little appetite for further political integration, that trend seems to have stalled. Germany's response to Ukraine has been quite different to the United Kingdom for instance.

Compare that to the United States where you have a political and economic union. The same currency across all states. The same dominant corporations across the country. Only two political parties to vote for.

IlliniDave
Posts: 3837
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by IlliniDave »

I'm sort of old which influences things. US native/resident. The only place I'd consider moving outside the US is Canada. And there are parts of the US I would not move to. The reasons are relative abundance of energy, abundance of water, and ease of travel to family (though covid put a damper on that for two years, so there are no guarantees).

I admit to not knowing a lot of the details about Europe as a whole or its specific constituents. But from what I do know, and if I were younger and had a different family situation there are a handful of countries there that seem worth considering for me (whether I could immigrate to any of them is another matter). Generally in the northwest and off the top of my head Germany would be one of them (high marks from everyone I know who has visited or lived there). So it seems you have good choices with both your birthplaces. Maybe find a way to spend 6 mos to a year in Canada and and see how it compares.

I sort of left out concerns of governments shooting their respective countries in the foot because it seems to be happening everywhere in the "west" and so far is relatively mild compared to some of what has gone on historically.

horsewoman
Posts: 659
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:11 am

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by horsewoman »

guitarplayer wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:25 pm
@horsewoman, would you be in a position to compare Bavaria and Austria? I had spent a year in Salzkammergut once and had the time of my life. Still miss the Alps even though it was many years ago, would see myself in that part of the world again.
Since I live close to the Austrian boarder, I suppose I am! If you liked the area around Salzburg, you would probably enjoy the part of Bavaria that boarders right on it, what we call "Alpenvorland". Places like Berchtesgaden, Bad Reichenhall, Ruhpolding, Tegernsee.
The rest of Bavaria is not so"alpine" in character.
In general, alpine regions are HCOL areas, no matter if they are in Germany or Austria. Loads of rich people have second homes there, which drives real estate prices up and the natives out, because regular people can't afford to stay there any longer.

To a foreigner, Austrians and Bavarians would be pretty indistinguishable, I guess - most northern Germans are not able to keep us apart. To me the differences in language and mindset are very pronounced, but I suppose Bavarians have more in common with Austrians than with people from Hamburg or Berlin. I would not want to live in Austria because I feel they have an even bigger xenophobia problem than we do.

Another beautiful part (and less expensive) is the "Bayerische Wald" in Lower Bavaria. It's a huge primeval forest, with mountains and many wild animals. Not as dramatic as the alps, but still very beautiful.

Personally, I can't understand why anyone would want to leave here. I consider it a jackpot in the lottery of life to be born in Germany (with all it's real downsides), but that's subjective, of course.

User avatar
Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1669
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@zbigi
@dd

I would not say I am lumping all of Europe together. This is coming from someone who always wanted to make a Grand Tour to the land of his forebears. Rather I am focusing on the one issue, which for me makes the other differences irrelevant when push comes to shove.

I was working with Germans and Swiss recently, and on a conference call one of the Americans had to explain to the Germans and Swiss why so many Americans would refuse to comply with government vaccine mandates, and how this was causing logistical problems. The Germans and Swiss were baffled. Why would anyone disobey a government mandate? The Americans speaking were of course in agreement with the Germans and the Swiss. I sat there like Ethan Hawke in Gattaca and did not say anything, because the penalty for disagreement is dismissal.

I see the Dutch farmers causing problems at the moment but I am waiting (and hoping) to see more sparks of life. I want to be wrong. I would rather there be a future where there are other places I can go.

Your points on a USA political and currency union are taken but it feels about as cohesive here as pre-WW1 Austria-Hungary.

prudentelo
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:55 am

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by prudentelo »

That's German outlook not 'European' (though Germans known to use these words interchangeably)

Ask those same Germans if they think all Poles took vaccines. Or Romanian

Ask them why


Correct analyses for USA iss Byzantium

Euro has older/other fractures, more unified within each 'fragment', but also taking on US aspects too (mostly from Blue Team)

horsewoman
Posts: 659
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:11 am

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by horsewoman »

@Mister Imperceptible - I think you vastly underestimate the effect of the different languages and cultures in Europe. The only people I understand in the whole of Europe (as a German) are Austrians and Swiss. Hungarians, Czechs, Poles, Frenchmen, Belgians, Spaniards - all of those people might live "near" me (by US standards) but the differences in culture and language are staggering. I do not feel in any kind united with or connected to people in other European countries (and I consider myself a pro-EU person), apart from the fact that I can pay with EURO when shopping in Austria.
Also, European legislation feels not so important in our day-to-day politics, which might be of course coloured in my view by the fact that Germany is a driving force in the EU (German views shape EU legislation a lot, one might say). It might feel different for citizens in other EU countries.

My point is, there is no comparing the EU to the US in terms of cohesion/uniformity/centralized control. The US could be more or less re-arranged into two countries (red/blue) and everyone would be happy (a little flippant maybe, but that's how it seems to me). The EU literally IS a bunch of countries with very different cultures, laws and customs.

User avatar
Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1669
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@hw

I think I made a statement that was too broad for my intention, and in particular it has offended the Europeans. The differences between Europeans is acknowledged and appreciated. Europe is not a monolith. This coming from an Italian-Sicilian-Québécois-Polish-Lithuanian-American.

Let me rephrase:

I see red state USA as the only people in the entire western developed world who will resist centralized control.

And I want that statement to be wrong.

chenda
Posts: 3281
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:49 pm
What European countries seem to have in common if not languages is a commitment to complete centralized control. I would even say the blue states in the USA have more in common with Europe/Canada/Australia/New Zealand than they do with USA red states.
I agree with you. Its because these countries are generally much more urbanised and densely populated than much of the US. Jacob noted some time ago that red/blue team adherence is the US strongly correlates with population density. Europe does not have a vaste rural hinterland like the midwest, hence attitudes to government mandates tend to reflect blue state attitudes. If you look at a map of the earth at night the difference is quite noticeable. Australia is vaste but its mostly desert and so almost everyone lives in coastal cities, hence they think like New Yorkers or Californians. Of course people still divide on things but there isnt that underlaying cultural division, at least not to the same degree.

But returning to the OP question, I do agree that Germany is a good long term bet. So if you want to move abroad do so for positive reasons, not because you are on a sinking ship.

@Horsewomen Its funny because I increasingly do feel very European, at least when I'm anywhere in western Europe. There are lots of differences of course as you say, but I feel there is a growing commonality. Although maybe its just me reacting against Brexit :lol:

sky
Posts: 1726
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:20 am

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by sky »

Blue states want to be like Europe, red states want to be like South America. It has to do with their cultural background.

User avatar
Jean
Posts: 1886
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 8:49 am
Location: Switzterland

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

@mi
there are a lot of people in europe that think like what you call red states. probably in the same proportion but the press and academic are much more opressively blue there, and as most countrie are much more populated and demographicly diverse than most states, 42% red (guess, might be wrong, eu average) is much less likely to result in red being over 50% in one country (while us state are able to be red, because some are overwelmingly one kind of people) and because of the language and culture barrier, red people cannot move as easely to red country and get a local majority (and it usually takes year to get right of vote there anyway).

I think you can safely be reinsured that your statement is wrong. but you won't see people reinssuring you in a corporation present on two continents, were the culture is opressive enough for you to shut up.

chenda
Posts: 3281
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Jul 09, 2022 11:15 am
I see red state USA as the only people in the entire western developed world who will resist centralized control.
Probably. Maybe some South Africans, but as it would be difficult to find a country worse run than South Africa its perhaps not surprising.

macg
Posts: 173
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:48 pm
Location: USA-FL

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by macg »

In the US, I would argue that even now, most people don't truly care about red vs blue. Everyone's just trying to survive.

Sure, if you look at the "news" (which is just targeted entertainment now), or state politics, or social media, it seems like everyone is on a side and everyone cares. But they don't, not really, not when it comes down to it. Not the vast majority, they just are going through the grind and trying to eke out a life.

It's just this huge divide is good entertainment, and it makes it easy for those in power to control those not in power. So it seems like everything revolves around it...

If it matters, my opinion is based on a few decades of living in 5 states (both red and blue), as well as living in an RV for 5 years traveling through a couple of dozen more.

zbigi
Posts: 968
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by zbigi »

macg wrote:
Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:26 pm
I think that may be true, but only to a degree. There are plenty of liberal white-collar type of people who say they wouldn't move for a job offer to a red state because of politics (mostly, because they don't want to be surrounded by people they mostly deeply disagree with and have a low opinion of). Also, seemingly more and more rich people/entrepreneurs move to red states because "freedom" (although, in their case, the lower taxes may be as enticing).

I agree that it's mostly drama whipped up by media, but now it becomes real, because people start to think in terms that media serve them. I even saw that in Poland - there's a mostly rural region of Poland (podkarpackie) which media deemed as a bastion of "red". After I went there for vacation, I heard a lot of snickering comments back home about politics of that region - but, when I was there, politics was hardly visible (thank God for bumper stickers not catching up in Europe/Poland).

chenda
Posts: 3281
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by chenda »

The loss of reproductive rights is a very real delineation. As it is in Poland and Ireland.

@fireeu You mentioned New Zealand, which is sometimes touted as a safe haven in an unstable world. And too some extent it is. But its isolation is a double edged sword and the COL living is very high, its highly import dependant and the economy isn't the best. I'd be inclined to take it over Australia though, which faces major climate change issues and has been economically coasting on the resource boom for the last 30 years, selling coal and iron to China.

Post Reply