Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

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fireeu
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Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by fireeu »

Hey folks! I am from Germany (wife is Canadian) and we are thinking already for a few years now to leave Germany and look for something else. As its more and more clear, Germany is at the brink of loosing its economic power, with dire consequences for the population. I want to make a move before that happens and currently evaluating countries.

The United States is (probably next to China and other eastern countries) the only one on the list which I wouldn't move. Did somebody here already make a list of countries they would consider or considering moving to?

I could think of:

- Canada
- Switzerland
- New Zealand
-...

Any feedback is appreciated!

theanimal
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by theanimal »

I would be curious to hear why you wouldn't consider a move to the US. Arguably the US is one of the most resilient nations going forward for many of the same reasons that led it to be a global superpower.

-Favorable demographics: Well balanced age brackets with lots of young people.
-Most navigable waterways in the world
-Available natural resources
-Separated from most countries by 2 major oceans and very unlikely to encounter war with neighboring countries
- Lots of arable land
-Varied temperate climate. Possible to live in areas that don't require much heating or cooling. Even accounting for possible changes going forward.
-Economic opportunity in a very large variety of fields

Much of this I am kind of parroting from Peter Zeihan's work. You may find his books of interest. He talks about how geography and demographics play a large role in shaping the path and outcome of countries.

fireeu
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by fireeu »

I agree! One important aspect: I have kids. School shootings, shootings in general, falling live expectancy. You might have to carve your own way of life, and that‘s fine! I am not so sure how resilient the inner workings of the US society are! There is much said to the failing US empire. Every empire falls, it might not fall deep, that‘s true.

I would rather move to Canada than the US. But looking for working societies with public health care, no gun culture.

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Ego
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Ego »

Canada makes the most sense because you have a way in and maybe some connections. The people are nice. The schools are good and safe. Quality of life is excellent. Seems like a no brainer.

The other places would be more challenging. Do you have a way to get permission to live in Switzerland or New Zealand?

Truth told, all of them are bland to me but perfect places to rear a family.

Regarding the U.S., we certainly have a lot of problems, but those problems - like many things here - are not evenly distributed.

ertyu
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by ertyu »

Where to move to was also one of the first thoughts that passed through my mind when the current geopolitical shit began. Sadly, it seems to me this might be knee-jerk thinking. It's the "bargaining" phase, if you will: I will find somewhere to move and I will be fine, it will be fine. Life will be safe and normal. But it's started to dawn on me that during collapse, life isn't safe and normal, for anyone, anywhere. There is no such thing as "safe."

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Seppia
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Seppia »

Canada would make a lot of sense.
The problem I would see with NZ is that it’s so damn far from everything and everyone. I wouldn’t like to move there since I’m not from there.
There’s many countries that are unlikely to be touched by conflicts/climate change/etc: I would look into the “irrelevant” nations with good climate and stable governments.
Why would someone try too hard to conquer Portugal? Or Costa Rica?
From this point of view, Switzerland is also ok. But while beautiful, it’s also expensive and boring in my opinion.

I agree with Ego and theanimal that you may be discounting the USA.
But it’s clearly easier for you to move to Canada which is a slightly safer, worse climate diversity alternative.

Dream of Freedom
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Dream of Freedom »

fireeu wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:11 pm
The United States is (probably next to China and other eastern countries) the only one on the list which I wouldn't move.
Your instincts are right about coming to the US. There is a lot of nastiness brewing under the surface.

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Jean
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

as a german, he can move freely to switzerland.

in the us, i'de avoid every area for long term except the northern half of midwest and new england. Drought are a threat everywere else.

in the end, i'de keep two criterion, water, and people that wouldn't kill me.

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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by jacob »

There aren't that many countries with better economic prospects than Germany. If you can stand the conformity and never truly fitting in, Scandinavia is a very good bet and available via your EU passport. This also avoids dealing with immigration issues which become a liability and a point of stress when a country is under pressure.

Otherwise, a quick way is to look at this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ment_Index ... and cross out countries in tropical and subtropical areas (heatwave, weather, fire, and food risks) and countries in arctic and subarctic areas (fuel shortages and food risks). Also low-lying areas (hurricanes, storm surges) e.g. Florida, Netherlands, Denmark, ... in case there's no desire to experience the aftermath of a Katrina-like event. Note that these events don't have to hit directly to affect them. For example northern Florida is reasonably resilient but is tied politically and economically to southern Florida which is fragile.

TL;DR - Germany would actually be pretty high on my list.

zbigi
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by zbigi »

Seppia wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:48 am

Why would someone try too hard to conquer Portugal? Or Costa Rica?
Soviet's policy in late 1940s was pretty explicitly "Jewropa nasza" ("Europe is ours"). There were openly talking about a large Soviet empire from Kamczatka to Lisbon.

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Jean
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Jean »

@Seppia
some people manage to live there as on less than a jafi, so it's not that expensive. services are expensives, but they are easy to go without. i don't know what you mean by boring. i rarely get bored in switzerland.

prudentelo
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by prudentelo »

It's like asking what asset will do best in years to come. How long do you have? Can you take volatility?

Be careful making life changing decision for "long term security" that may really by emotional overreaction to 1-3 year scale events

horsewoman
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by horsewoman »

Funny how different perceptions are. There are some serious problems in Germany, of course, but I feel very safe here. Inflation and energy scarcity will hit all western economies, there is no escaping that thanks to globalisation. There are some concerns because of the war in Ukraine, but I really don't think Putin would attack a NATO member. So I'm not really apprehensive about war coming to Germany.

I would hesitate to move out of my very stable country at a time like this. We only "immigrated" from upper Bavaria to lower Bavaria and even that has been a tiny culture shock.
I guess as an actual foreigner you will always face some amount of not fitting in, and with tensions high (and resources perceived as low) it might be even more difficult to integrate in a new culture.

In the op's case I would only consider Canada due to the spouse, but Canada is in my eyes rather similar to Germany, only with worse winters (and racoons).

sky
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by sky »

Canada is a good choice. It is generally welcoming to immigrants, at least on a government level. Prices tend to be quite high, I always feel like I am being ripped off when I buy anything there. Housing is expensive compared to across the border. My experience is comparing Michigan, where I live, with northern Ontario, where I used to vacation before the pandemic. I would be quite happy living anywhere between Sault Ste Marie and North Bay. Probably many other areas are also nice, I have not seen all of Canada, it is a very large country.

I am curious why you think the future is not good for Germany.

fireeu
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by fireeu »

sky wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:48 am
I am curious why you think the future is not good for Germany.

Basically energy miss-management (many large exporters rely on Russian gas). Higher energy costs == less life. Less production, higher unemployment, more social costs etc.

The US and Nato forced us to take a stand against the Russian/Chinese/Indian empire, but it would be better to be friendly to both sides.

I just see a new „war“ (however this plays out, not necesserially with guns) between the States/UK and Russia/India/China. And I don‘t see our politicans taking the steps needed to distance ourselves from both sides and play in the middle, like Merkel and all the others did so well for the past years.

Maybe a bit bleak but questioning if I should a country with a more prosper future than a falling, once prosperus country

sky
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by sky »

Every immigrant has many reasons to move to a new place: personal, political, economic, some just need adventure. Try taking a long vacation and renting a room for a month or two in a potential location, it will help you in making your decision.

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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by jacob »

fireeu wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:55 am
Basically energy miss-management (many large exporters rely on Russian gas). Higher energy costs == less life. Less production, higher unemployment, more social costs etc.

The US and Nato forced us to take a stand against the Russian/Chinese/Indian empire, but it would be better to be friendly to both sides.
This has been a problem since the North Sea production went into decline 10-20 years ago. It pertains to all of Europe. On the flip side, Europe is generally very energy efficient, 2x+ compared to the US. Distances are short (bicycle friendly). Countries have prepared the infrastructure since the 1970s. The workforce is highly educated and flexible and doesn't rely on heavy industry or a debt-fueled service industry.

The previous [EU] strategy was to become interdependent with Russia on the energy. At some point (10something years ago) there was even talk of Russia joining the EU. But that strategy is now bunk. Clearly it takes two to tango, so now EU is experiencing a wake-up call after pushing Russia's Monroe-doctrine equivalent a bit too far. I'm fairly confident there's enough energy-inefficiency in European consumer behavior to "fix" this within a few years. Much of the Great-Game politics in the near east (Syria, Qatar, ..) relates to where to run the new pipelines to replace the ones that currently go through Ukraine/Poland or the Baltic (Nordstream). This is also where the next wars will continue or ignite. It's all stupidly predictable.
fireeu wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:55 am
Maybe a bit bleak but questioning if I should a country with a more prosper future than a falling, once prosperus country
Maybe the question is rather whether one prefers to live in a rich country that's declining or a poor country that's rising. This has psychological implications. For example, the average American in 2050 will be about as rich in real terms as the average American is now, like +/- 20%. Whereas the average Chinese in 2050 will be doing much better in 2050 than now. OTOH, the average American is still richer than the average Chinese and will most likely continue to be so in 2050. However, this concerns averages. As such it's easier to make fortunes in China (and other emerging economies) because it's a relative positive-sum game with a huge variation. The US is a rich but declining zero/negative-sum game with a large variation, so one can still do well but it happens at the cost of the rural precariat. EU is also zero/negative-sum but the variation is much smaller. As such it's harder to become richer still, but it's also less likely that anyone in the EU will have to deal with open sewerage and crashing infrastructure.

A lot of the decision thus depends on temperament and risk tolerance. Keep in mind that personal happiness depends on a lot on local relative performance.

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Seppia
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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by Seppia »

zbigi wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:40 am
Soviet's policy in late 1940s was pretty explicitly "Jewropa nasza" ("Europe is ours"). There were openly talking about a large Soviet empire from Kamczatka to Lisbon.
Yet they didn’t manage to get further west than Germany.
You’re kinda proving my point about Portugal :)
Jean wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:49 am
@Seppia
some people manage to live there as on less than a jafi, so it's not that expensive. services are expensives, but they are easy to go without. i don't know what you mean by boring. i rarely get bored in switzerland.
Resourceful and dedicated people can do extraordinary things, but I think for the ordinary person Switzerland remains expensive relative to other countries.

I’m typing this from the Chantun Grischun and I am 100% in love with Switzerland, but as beautiful as it is, I wouldn’t call it an exciting place.
jacob wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:24 am
the average American in 2050 will be about as rich in real terms as the average American is now, like +/- 20%. Whereas the average Chinese in 2050 will be doing much better in 2050 than now. OTOH, the average American is still richer than the average Chinese and will most likely continue to be so in 2050. However, this concerns averages. As such it's easier to make fortunes in China (and other emerging economies) because it's a relative positive-sum game with a huge variation. The US is a rich but declining zero/negative-sum game with a large variation, so one can still do well but it happens at the cost of the rural precariat. EU is also zero/negative-sum but the variation is much smaller. As such it's harder to become richer still, but it's also less likely that anyone in the EU will have to deal with open sewerage and crashing infrastructure.

A lot of the decision thus depends on temperament and risk tolerance. Keep in mind that personal happiness depends on a lot on local relative performance.
I always admired your ability to distill facts/information.

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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by guitarplayer »

@horsewoman, would you be in a position to compare Bavaria and Austria? I had spent a year in Salzkammergut once and had the time of my life. Still miss the Alps even though it was many years ago, would see myself in that part of the world again.

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Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

Post by clark »

The main problem with Germany is that the German people are so relentlessly down on themselves. I know there are historical reasons for this self-critical attitude, but you don’t want to let it get in the way of sober analysis.

I would argue that Germany is the best country in the world to live in, both in terms of resilience and having a nice life right now. It’s big enough to be somewhat manufacturing-independent, the infrastructure is great, the climate is nice, the cost of living is fairly low, and the German people have such a great attention to detail and work ethic. Compared to many other European countries, it’s remarkable how everything just works there, from trains to toilets and on down. The main worry is lack of fossil fuels, but Germany seems to be doing its best to insulate itself from that.

I may be biased as a Germano-phile, but if I were you, I would just stay there and not worry too much about it.

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