What is everyone doing for ww3?

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Lemur
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Lemur »

It very well could be in future history books that WW3 began when "Russia invaded Ukraine" and subsequent events like NATO joining in or China finally attacking Taiwan while the U.S.A is in a cultural cold war...

Anyhow, nothing has changed for me living in the U.S.A.

@Clark

This post resonated with me. I've had these thoughts before. If things really got dire enough, our house would be targeted by roaming bands of starving Americans with guns looking for food. Should I take a step further and not only have several months supply of food but also food in a hidden spot? I'm not sure if that is necessary. The odds of this are .... very little perhaps. I'm reminded about day to day life in Lebanon or when Cuba was hit by the embargo and they had to transition to a low-energy economy. In short, people died, some chaos, but ultimately the populace adapted...the best / most prepared will survive?

jacob
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by jacob »

ertyu wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:42 am
@jacob, in the comments of the post referenced above, in addition to the three books recommended in the body of the post, you mention sthephen leeb as someone whose work contains "the best paper strategies for the bad outcome." Am now reading The Oil Factor, which is the only book of his I am able to access. What is your current thinking on his work?
I'd have to revisit his work. Interestingly, a JPM analyst recently suggested that oil may go to $350 insofar Russia decides to turn the sanctions back on the west by stopping all crude exports. (They're redirected exports to India and China and are currently making lots of money which might be preferable to causing recessions in the western economics. On the other hand ...)

FWIW, I don't think pursuing a pure paper strategy is very wise nor do I think concentrating bets on a singular outcome is very wise either.

take2
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by take2 »

jacob wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:26 pm
Interestingly, a JPM analyst recently suggested that oil may go to $350 insofar Russia decides to turn the sanctions back on the west by stopping all crude exports.
I think a Citi analyst said dropping to $65 the same day JPM came out with that. Crystal balls read quite differently depending on your O&G exposure…

jacob
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by jacob »

take2 wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:25 pm
I think a Citi analyst said dropping to $65 the same day JPM came out with that. Crystal balls read quite differently depending on your O&G exposure…
Yeah, exactly. Eggs. Basket.

WFJ
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by WFJ »

Probability of WWIII is lower today than at any time in the last 70 years.

My "WWIII" plan is to leave workforce, move to tropical island, watch less Western propaganda about what to panic about this week. There is more scientific evidence that a Sharknado will impact future plans than WWIII or other "science" based panic.

For those in your 20's-30's (accumulation phase), I would definitely suggest finding an economic resistant job (education/healthcare/pilot/CDL) while economy transitions from bubble to recession/reality.

Oil is not going to anything above $200/barrel as at this price the world economy will tank and more likely to result in return to -$30/barrel again.

ertyu
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ertyu »

WFJ wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:05 pm
Probability of WWIII is lower today than at any time in the last 70 years.
what makes you argue this is the case? in my opinion, it has began

zbigi
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by zbigi »

ertyu wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:04 am
what makes you argue this is the case? in my opinion, it has began
How is the invasion of Ukraine qualitatively different from the wars in Korea, Vietnam? They were much closer to "start of WWIII" than the current situation - for example, in Korea, there were actual Soviet soldiers (mostly pilots) fighting US soldiers.

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Jean
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Jean »

ukraine is the russia/nato border. vietnam, korea, and yugoslavia were at the time outer realms.

prudentelo
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by prudentelo »

Vietnam, korea, cuban crisis all were constrained by wide fear of nuclear war

Winning is good, but nuclear war is disaster (no win).

But with Ukraine, not much fear of nuclear war. More important to "win".

This is new.

ertyu
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ertyu »

Also new is the decisiveness of the west's response and the suddenness of the west's response--as well as the magnitude of the response. I don't delude myself I know more or better than the nato governments/militaries, but it seems to me that the west isn't reacting to this like it's peanuts and so I assume there are things happening I don't know about that are nonetheless significant enough.

I also believe the current events in the US and the zero covid policy in china are connected to all this. I do not have factual proof and I don't believe a muggle can have such proof. So I fully acknowledge I may be wrong. It would be great if I am wrong, as a matter of fact

sky
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by sky »

The war in Ukraine has some similarities to when Poland and Czechoslovakia freed themselves from Soviet rule. The main difference is that Russia considers the Ukraine to be part of Russia, so from Russian perspective it is a civil war. From Ukrainian perspective, it is a war of independence. It will become WWIII only if Russia lashes out at those countries supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

“Why are people in the CIA trying to stop us from saving the world?”

“Oh well they want the Big Gun. You see the UFOs have weapons too. They have a Big Gun that can blow a whole planet away. And there’s a faction in the agency that’s willing to trade for it.”

“Well if it can blow a whole planet away who are they going to use it on?”

“Who do you think Bob? The Russians.”

“W-Wait a minute, if it can blow away a planet that would kill us too, what about the end of the world?”

“That’s not their problem Bob. Their job is to protect the United States. Getting the Gun is their job.”

“But doesn’t anyone think enough to take in the big picture?”

“I don’t know Bob that’s not my department.”

WFJ
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by WFJ »

ertyu wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:04 am
what makes you argue this is the case? in my opinion, it has began
Re-engagement of war usually follows a right-skew chi-squared distribution meaning the further from the previous engagement, the less likely a new engagement occurs. US/NATO and Russia have been at each other's throats since the end of WWII.

The probability of a Sharknado is higher than WWIII occurring in the next 50 years.

Stop watching MSM, pick up a history book on WWI and WWII and understand the there are no iron clad agreements between adversaries that once existed. NOBODY is sending troops into Russia, NOBODY. Solar powered tanks and windmill powered fighter jets are not going to invade Russia in the Fall, Winter or Spring. Even if US/NATO wanted to start WWIII with Russia, they won't have the energy (literally or figuratively) to make it one mile into the Russian border.

ertyu
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ertyu »

The Canadian outage is a very interesting development. Regardless of whether it was caused by a malicious actor or not (and whether the general public will ever be told if it was), at least for me it brings possibilities of what can happen if a malicious actor were to mount a successful attack on internet infrastructure from the abstract to the concrete. Again, if one already does ERE well - by which I mean one's survival strategies are well-diversified between paper (for growth) and physical assets and skills, one is already cushioned. Storing a lump sum of cash at home might also be a good idea.

A common piece of advice on social media was, withdraw cash from your bank, from a physical teller. In an attack comprehensive enough where the general public isn't so calm about the outage being a problem that will be fixed in a couple of days, this could lead to a run on the banks.

ducknald_don
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ducknald_don »

We have had ten years of Russia and China probing our networks with some success but when it came to it a head Russia hasn't been able to shut down the west. They haven't had much success infiltrating systems in Ukraine. My guess is all that past activity has helped organisations harden their systems. That and the media coverage of this stuff has been overblown.

ertyu
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ertyu »

On Nov 2nd, Ray Dalio came out with a LinkedIn post arguing that the world is moving towards a state of war (either civil war in the US or confrontation between the US and other up-and-comers internationally or both), with highest probability assigned to 2025. He of course states that this development isn't certain, but provides examples of past restrictions to capital mobility as well as closures of stock markets + the associated losses experienced by investors.

Whereas the prediction that we're headed towards war has been around for a while (e.g. Pippa Malmgren has argued this in late 2019, before the Russia/Ukraine conflict), and whereas Dalio's book on dealing with the changing international world order has been out for a while, something about him attaching what he considers to be a high-probability date to his prognosis has really framed the question in concrete terms for me.

What if we are indeed in a state of major international conflict in three years? Or in five? What is the most rational way to prepare? How do we prevent catastrophic capital loss? If catastrophic loss has a high chance of occurring anyway, is there a point in continued accumulation, or should we focus on enjoying the last of peace time? I'm interested to hear from anyone who's read the post -- what are your thoughts and opinions?

sky
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by sky »

The Ukranian War of Independence will be resolved within three to five years. Ukraine will survive as a nation. Russia will either turn into a closed economy similar to North Korea if nationalist militarists hold control of the government, or Russia will become a wealthy nation as part of the world economy. This could happen either by a popular uprising similar to those which occurred in the nations occupied by the Russians after WWII, or it could happen by a coup orchestrated by oligarchs who see the vast wealth opportunities of Russia.

The USA will not have a civil war. The issues of controversy are not that intense or important and many of the issues of controversy are contrived and not true. Americans will not leave their couches, bags of Cheetos and tv news to go outside and fight a war. The US corporate managed economy is extremely efficient and reacts quickly to new challenges and opportunities. All political parties in the US government support the corporate managed economy.

There probably will be wars and skirmishes on the edges of the Eurozone, and in Africa and Asia. There will be a lot of competition for resources, which might involve Eurozone players. The US will probably try to control resources and politics in the Caribbean and Central America, perhaps also in South America. China will probably fight with all of its neighbors, if China does not splinter into regional nations. The empires of the Babylonians, Assyrians, Parthians, Hittites and Egyptians will do what civilizations have always done, try to defeat and enslave the competing empires.

As an investor one should focus on opportunities that are available now. One should try to predict the future but most people will not be able to accurately predict future outcomes. My predictions are probably wrong. Either way, it is better to try to build wealth and learn how to live well on a small income.

ffj
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ffj »

Take out the outsized influence the news media has in the United States and one can see how ridiculous the thought of a civil war occurring in the U.S. What would we fight over? What is important enough that we would be willing to kill our own countrymen? Or to secede?

What is in everybody's best financial interest? That is what will set precedent, not whether you care about abortion or guns or are a Repub/Dem. All that stuff is downstream of financial security and wildly overinflated by the news orgs as entertainment.

chenda
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by chenda »

How do we profit ?

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unemployable
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by unemployable »

Web of goals, people. Whatever the output is from your ww3 strategy should serve as an input for ww4...

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