Running with scissors

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Sclass
Posts: 2808
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Running with scissors

Post by Sclass »

jacob wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 3:53 pm
If you're an experienced investor who is not in index funds, the constant barrage of "nobody can beat the market", "if anyone claims... they were lucky/they didn't adjust for risk/haven't proven themselves for enough time", "Nobel prize winners have statistically proven", "All you need is DCA into VTASX",... are let go without comment as well for the same reasons.

There's basically zero upside to engaging with it.
This! Thank you @jacob. 8-)

I find it easier (less pushback) to discuss sewing or soldering here. I don’t get paid to fight about how I can or cannot make money on Wall Street. Most of the banter is based on statistical averages and don’t really apply to me though I tend to take it personally when I read it. I am most certainly an outlier in a number of ways.

I came here after I made my FI. I was really interested in living efficiently and people here seem have that down. I like that and I like those members. It never made much sense to talk about how to make money since my methods probably won’t work for anyone else.

Back to the OP, think about it. Jacob is most certainly B2 > B1.

clark
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Mar 25, 2022 6:30 pm

Re: Running with scissors

Post by clark »

I think candide hit the nail on the head. From what I've observed, people interested in ERE tend to be somewhat anti-establishmentarian to begin with (I certainly have that streak in me). So we are naturally skeptical when all of society says "this is the answer," or put another way, we don't like trendy things. We are also more capable than the average person of seeing some of the major errors that society as a whole is making (rampant consumerism, environmental and climate destruction, etc.). This perspective (and the relative pessimism of ERE types) makes us even more reluctant to just dive into the "mainstream" investing option. Personally, I have gone from all cash, to 30/70 (stock/bonds and cash), to Permanent Portfolio, and only now, after almost a decade of investing, am I tracking fairly closely with Vanguard's recommendation for my age. And I do so with a readiness to switch to something else if I see evidence that I should.

But anti-establishmentarianism has, in my opinion, one major flaw: when you reject a flawed mainstream choice, you often end up making an even worse choice (or at least an unnecessarily complicated one; look for instance, at the byzantine treatment plans anti-vax people resort to in order to get over COVID). And many grifters in the gold and crypto investing worlds prey on these tendencies, warning of impending dollar hyperinflation, US debt default, and so on. (not saying those won't happen at some point but this is a common scare tactic) I was quite scared of US collapse for many years until I began wondering if I had been played by doomsday types looking to promote themselves or sell something.

I am now learning that knee-jerk anti-establishmentarianism, while very healthy in moderation, can be highly detrimental if I lean into it too much, and so I'm turning towards viewing indexing as the B+ solution that I should stick with for the time being.

However, I am now also actively reading investment fundamentals so as to be able to better judge these things myself, instead of swinging back and forth based on what someone else may or may not say. In this sense, I truly appreciate this forum for promoting this active-learning, constantly-questioning style. But as alternative-lifestyle types, we do have to be wary of people who try to take advantage of our tendencies to promote sketchy investment strategies.

prudentelo
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:55 am

Re: Running with scissors

Post by prudentelo »

It predates my investment career but many people I heard predicted the 2007 crash.

I believe bond yields exceeded CAEY at that time so not a hard "prediction". Win even if you are wrong

Currently situation is more weird.

chenda
Posts: 3303
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Running with scissors

Post by chenda »

clark wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 4:30 pm
This is an excellent point which I believe also applies to many things outside of investment strategies.

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