5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
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5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
Where do you see the economy, and state of affairs in 5 years, and then 10 years from now? Do you think there is anything special that you can do to prepare for the coming changes?
Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
State of affairs - poorly.
Economic wise - will keep chugging along. Probably stagflation in the near-term but should start seeing some recovery 10 years from now when the changing world order makes some adjustments.
I don't know if I can do anything special - pessimistically; collapse happens slowly. As for preparations, just reassess in a system like manner. My pessimistic nature about the world order and state of affairs is what it is - I find it makes me steadily contended though because I get bouts of pleasantly becoming surprised when good things happen.
Just make sure you're not the boiling frog.
Economic wise - will keep chugging along. Probably stagflation in the near-term but should start seeing some recovery 10 years from now when the changing world order makes some adjustments.
I don't know if I can do anything special - pessimistically; collapse happens slowly. As for preparations, just reassess in a system like manner. My pessimistic nature about the world order and state of affairs is what it is - I find it makes me steadily contended though because I get bouts of pleasantly becoming surprised when good things happen.
Just make sure you're not the boiling frog.
Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
I don't think the economy is the big geopolitical issue right now. I think it's more China, Russia & America and how they continue to interact with the world.Michael_00005 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:36 amWhere do you see the economy, and state of affairs in 5 years, and then 10 years from now? Do you think there is anything special that you can do to prepare for the coming changes?
My take is Russia is a spent force and they are going to be worse off in 5 and 10 years time unless they have massive changes.
China is definitely not a spent force. Do they invade Taiwan for instance ? Do they close their economy off and become isolated ?
Will America go down the path of an autocratic government with high levels of protectionism and crony capitalism.
I'm hopeful that none of this happens.
I think all you can do is save your pennies and invest them wisely.
Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
Don't waste your time predicting 5-10 years in the future, unless you can predict events 5-10 days (5-10 hours) in the future. If you can even predict events 5-10 days in the future, even if just interest rates, let me know, we will be trillionaires in a few months.
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Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
I’ve heard Jeff Gundlach say in interviews that 2-5 years is best window to allocate for in terms of big ideas.
Less than 2 years and especially 6 months, it may not be enough time for the thesis to play out, and you’re up against all the short term and high frequency traders.
Longer than that gets murky and ideally you are correct enough on a 2-5 year basis that you can re-assess and re-allocate from a higher base.
Having myself been investing 3-3.5 years since developing my first major thesis, and having experienced “being right” for 1.5-2 years and “being wrong” for almost 2 years, this seems like a good framework.
Less than 2 years and especially 6 months, it may not be enough time for the thesis to play out, and you’re up against all the short term and high frequency traders.
Longer than that gets murky and ideally you are correct enough on a 2-5 year basis that you can re-assess and re-allocate from a higher base.
Having myself been investing 3-3.5 years since developing my first major thesis, and having experienced “being right” for 1.5-2 years and “being wrong” for almost 2 years, this seems like a good framework.
Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
recent interview w druckenmiller: he said his window is 18 months
Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
my windows is 100 years: i'll be dead.
Re: 5 and 10 years from now - 2027, 2032
I pledge to be carbon neutral in 100 years.