The collapse

[Michael_00005]

So you made it to FIRE, but where is the country headed? Talking about a failed government and economic crash from powerful countries probably sounds extreme, but it has happened over and over throughout history. These events are rare, but we can review the history of a country like the Roman Empire and see patterns and then compare them to what is happening today. It would be interesting to run a poll and get actual numbers to see where people stand on the idea, and to what degree people see in a potential fall-out. Larger numbers of the population are starting to acquire a prepper type attitude and it’s becoming more & more obvious with time. The question is, do we ignore the possibly? Fear is never the proper way to address difficulties or the unknown; it’s preparation before the event, or seeking ways to mitigate adverse effects before a full on crisis.

Can the U.S. economy continue its current path without “drastic” changes for another 50 years? Drastic, meaning some or all is torn down and rebuilt anew. Corruption within leadership to the point of breakdown is human nature, the question isn’t so much “if”, but how long before it happens. In schools we prepare for earthquakes and tornados, why not be practical and discuss or even prepare for a breakdown in the system?

When we fail to look at what is really important for a community we eventually get off track. Currently the priority is on money, power and wealth, over that of the community. The public does not seem to know what a healthy diet is, but the science is very clear and has been for a long time. We fail to teach the truth, so large corporation can sell their unhealthy products. Commercials and advertising are filled with garbage food that promote every major chronic disease known to man. Or trying to sell new cars to people who can’t afford them, the list goes on and on. And our country has always maintained the belief in free speech, but NOT when it’s detrimental to the general public. Every decade we move further from our safety nets of protecting the public from a media that has become detrimental to the mental wellbeing of society. TV is not just bad, it’s toxic. If we could only take a good long look at the character of the TV and movie-makers in Hollywood, and ask ourselves: should they be guiding the public and our children! A media left unchecked has enormous influence – whether we know it or not it’s filled with hidden propaganda. It would be surprising if even 1 in a 1,000 realized homosexuality is and has been promoted though the media… it’s not an accident the media includes this lifestyle in almost every movie or tv series, and has been since the late 1990’s. What’s troublesome about this, and many other things happening in our country, is that no one seems to realize how powerful people in the media industry are pushing their agendas. Even leaders in government take their cues from the media, and pass laws accordingly. How many realize the extent of influence of the media? TV and movies were vastly different in the 1950-60s, there used to censorship but every year safety and restrictions fall away. When you show endless programming of people having affairs, violent crimes, or other crimes against humanity we are setting the stage for how we live and think, our expectations. It’s impossible to watch hour after hour of this type of programming and not be fundamental affected at our very core. As a simple example, people will watch violence or crimes on the news and then be afraid to go outdoors, to talk and be friendly with neighbors or strangers. That is the erosion of community!

Some people think things are getting better and they often call themselves optimists. OK fine, let’s be practical then, and look at the fundamentals of community. It is possible to create a “Country Health Index”, if it’s not already created. Maybe someone will even become popular inventing it. Here’s one way it might work, we look at the foundation blocks of community and country, and we give each a scale factor and then an overall rating or score. To answer the question, “are we getting better or worse”, and then compile the results yearly.

The fundamentals:
1. Health of the population - here we look at chronic diseases, obesity, etc.
2. Education
3. Mental health (depression, anxiety)
4. Middle class (growing or shrinking – studies show happiness increases until a person reaches middle class ($70K U.S, after that money does not contribute to happiness)
5. Availably of healthcare for all
6. Stress (this could be tied to infrastructure, commute traffic, etc.), very important but almost always ignored
7. Family & community: can people find a marriage partner, divorce, loneliness
8. Percentages of people using: drugs, alcohol consumption or pharmaceutical drugs
9. Public safety: crime rates, prison, etc.
10. Ability to find a fulfilling career, quality jobs, unemployment rates.
11. Children are the future of the country, so polls in our schools rating their ability to find friends, safety, and happiness
12. National debt

Major environmental disasters are becoming more and more common; which one will finally push the economy over the edge? Some ideas come to mind, when it comes to being prepared. A failed system often brings about crime, so the most important factor could be community and being surrounded by people of sound mind, and wholesome values. After that: self-sufficiency (or ability to live off-grid), location, space, water and land, food/gardening and being able to provide the basics.

What are your thoughts: ignore it, it’s never going to happen – it might happen, but not in my lifetime – prepare for it, it’s going to happen – maybe it happens but there’s nothing you can do about it, so it’s best not to talk about it – who cares, grab as much as you can while you can… enjoy now, pay later! The last does not sound very FIRE-like to me

[white belt]

There have been many threads about this topic before:

viewtopic.php?f=13&t=11742
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11213
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=8515

[Michael_00005]

Thanks for sharing those links, it's interesting how this topic is gaining momentum... I'll take a look at them now. I wonder if the idea of a "Country Health Index" has come up (where the health of community is indexed and measured), if so I'd love to see a link to it.

In my thinking the collapse of community, precedes collapse of country more so then environmental disasters, loss of top soil etc. In fact the only reason we get to the point of environmental disaster is because first there is a breakdown in community. Would a unified community allow it's water supplies to be poisoned, or it's top soil to become depleted? Would a strong community allow the media to sell, promote, and even educate our children and inspire them to eat foods that will make them fat and sick (not just physically, but also being of sound mind)?

With community family is the foundation, then the neighborhood / schools, the city, country and finally the world.

[white belt]

Well I’m not so sure the topic of collapse is gaining much momentum on these forums because it’s already been widely discussed for the past 5+ years here. There was probably a bump in interest on here during the early COVID lockdowns in 2020, but as a community this group has been closely following climate change and related collapse issues for many years. That’s one thing that makes ERE quite different from traditional FIRE.

[Hristo Botev]

Perhaps also search the forums for references to John Michael Greer and Charles Hugh Smith (and there are so many others).

But given that the ERE thing started, in part (as I understand it), from @Jacob going down the Peak Oil rabbit hole, seems like it's safe to say that "collapse" is, at least at some level, part of the background noise of the ERE thing.

That said:

TV is not just bad, it’s toxic.

Ted Lasso is pretty good--but that's about it. (Still won't let my kids watch it, though; given the language and the sexual innuendo.) Sports is even becoming unbearable, given the politicization. But, no skin off my back; gives me more of an opportunity to play with my kids, talk with my wife, and read.

What are your thoughts: ignore it, it’s never going to happen – it might happen, but not in my lifetime – prepare for it, it’s going to happen – maybe it happens but there’s nothing you can do about it, so it’s best not to talk about it – who cares, grab as much as you can while you can… enjoy now, pay later! The last does not sound very FIRE-like to me

My thoughts: ground yourself in something permanent and seek out the true, the good, and the beautiful.

[jacob]

But given that the ERE thing started, in part (as I understand it), from @Jacob going down the Peak Oil rabbit hole, seems like it's safe to say that "collapse" is, at least at some level, part of the background noise of the ERE thing.

Indeed, ...
https://earlyretirementextreme.com/the- ... treme.html
https://earlyretirementextreme.com/myth ... uture.html
from 10 years ago.

Conversely, as the FIRE movement became increasingly popular, it became increasingly more techno-optimistic as it moved closer and closer to mainstream high-income consumer culture until the chain finally reconnected with BAU ("earn more, invest in index funds, become a millionaire"). This was a form of memetic drafting.

[Hristo Botev]

Indeed, ...

I've mentioned this elsewhere on the forum previously, but it still amazes me that way back in 2000 I had an "environmental psychology" professor who left his successful career as an engineer because he was sick of figuring out ways to just keep making the pipes bigger to meet bigger demand for water, with no one talking about perhaps figuring out ways to reduce (or at least stabilize) the demand for water. And so he went back to grad school to study, teach, research, and write about environmental psychology (at least half the kids in my class were education majors who signed up for the class accidentally, thinking it had something to do with desk placement in classrooms, etc.). And as clever as that guy was, you know what our first assigned reading was? It was Your Money or Your Life.

Smart, very smart.

He also advocated: (a) not owning a car; (b) not eating meat; (c) wearing a "uniform" of sorts, so that you could re-wear the same shirt, etc. multiple days in a row with no one noticing (his was a blue OCBD shirt and khaki shorts in the summer, and khaki pants in the winter); (d) taking "camper" showers, and only showering when you really needed to; (e) creating your own entertainment (he was an avid ultimate frisbee player, as I recall); and (f) cooking simple and cheap tried-and-true recipes that can easily be jazzed up with whatever happens to be fresh (lots of rice and beans recipes, as I recall). Of course he was also a vocal anti-natalist--but I try not to hold that against him.

It's telling that, 21 years later, I still remember that class so well. He was spot on in so many ways; wish I'd put some of those ideas into practice much, much earlier.

[jacob]

Plus ca change.

[Hristo Botev]

Plus ca change.

Wow, that was a new one for me. From OED:

'The more things change, the more they stay the same’: used to suggest that human nature, institutions, etc., are always fundamentally the same, despite apparent changes.

[unemployable]

And I was proud of y'all; we had made it like a whole two months without a collapse thread.

[chenda]

Whilst it's clearly entirely Hollywood's fault I now prefer girl-on-girl, the zero risk of resulting pregnancy means my carbon legacy is substantially reduced. Always look on the bright side of life.

[Michael_00005]

And I was proud of y'all; we had made it like a whole two months without a collapse thread.

There was an interesting scene in the Titanic where the musicians kept playing even after learning the boat was going down. In many ways they were the sanest of all on board, it's certainly better than fighting with each other in the last moments of life.

Was thinking there was a different scene, but this will do:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uffHb6JgoiQ

[unemployable]

My opinion on collapsology is summarized in this post.

I think people here worry too much about global-scale apocalypses and not enough about the ones that may strike their own bodies.

[basuragomi]

"We can review the history of a country like the Roman Empire and see patterns and then compare them to what is happening today."

Let's see:
- A devastating plague is killing 20% of the population;
- Currency is being rapidly devalued, putting the gold standard at risk;
- The army is now composed almost entirely of conscripted Mexican citizens;
- Trump is building the wall, except it's around Mar-a-Lago;
- Pirates on the Missouri river are ransacking grain barges and causing famine;
- Driven from their homes by a polar bear invasion, a band of roving Canadians has just sacked Boston;
- General Mattis is marching on Washington DC with an army of disaffected vets to marry his daughter off to the Speaker of the House;
- Obama declared himself president-for-life and has started drone striking all the other senators; and
- Biden has just passed a law outlawing the wearing of pants.

Yup, exactly like the fall of Rome. Better start recruiting coloni.

[TopHatFox]

Potential for societal collapse perfect reason for having high-value skills + minimalism, a.k.a ERE.

One can slave away for 20 years to save 2 million, but currency can become worthless, or can die at year 17, or worse, get crippled. All the while, plans for world travel or hobbies went largely ignored.

Compare this to minimalist who’s primary skill is coding, but who can also do plethora of other skills. Can work part-time and travel world for 20 years full-time, and if collapse, can use all skills to earn bottle caps (or whatever new currency is).

In deathbed and day-to-day, option 2 superior. In unstable world, saving at sacrifice of everything else stupid.

[Lemur]

@chenda

lol

[sky]

My baseline is Gotham City (late 60s Grand Rapids and 80s Detroit). From my point of view things are going pretty well. I have not had to fire up the Batmobile for decades.

[AxelHeyst]

The world has already collapsed, it’s just not evenly distributed yet. (~”the apocalypse you are all worried about is the reality of the people who grow your coffee”, from some sustainability conference)

[Frita]

Question: Why is anyone else’s sexual preference (except my spouse as we agreed to be monogamous) my business? I grew up without TV and still eschew it, so I don’t know that media had a thing to do with influencing that. However, growing up on a farm taught me a few collapse-ready skills and demonstrated that mammals do display homosexual behaviors.

[7Wannabe5]

I am finding the trend of confounding eternal conservative take on cultural “collapse” (no shortage of books published in 1920 and 1950 on dangers of society to youth and American manhood) with systems level thinking on ecosystem collapse rather disturbing and much more “strange bedfellows” than friendly boot knocking with somebody with similar bits and pieces.

Seriously, if I’m going to be “naturally “ consigned to being the one baking the cornbread in the low tech energy balanced world of the future, I’m likely to jump ship on this solution set completely and start hanging out with the more moderate towards Yellow rational optimists.