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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 11:33 am
by 7Wannabe5
Yeah, I grok that. What I am saying is that even though I went this entire summer without air conditioning in an attic apartment, I am still too slacker to work-for-money enough to afford 10x increase in electric bill. I will just do whatever else I have to do to make my bill even lower* before I will accumulate the 10x comfort margin reserve. IOW, the size of reserve is arbitrary and has something to do with personality/psychology.

Anyways, veering too far off topic. I will address further in my own journal.

*For instance, instead of staying flopped on my mattress reading library books during the hot part of the day, I will go down to the beach and intermittently immerse myself/seek shade and read library books during the hot part of the day. Or trade the pleasure of my company for the air conditioning available in some CalorieKing’s domicile during the hottest days of the month. Or read library books in the air conditioned public library. Etc etc etc

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 11:49 am
by mathiverse
@7W5 One way of handling a 10x increase would be to have reserves that can cover it as you say.

Another way would be to be able to increase income enough to cover it. For the $50 vs $150 dollar situations, scrambling to get an extra $450 a month is easier than scrambling for an extra $1350.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:33 pm
by 7Wannabe5
@mathiverse:

True, but that brings us back round to wondering what in the hell is likely to be happening in the financial or employment markets if/when energy is at 10x current prices.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 1:02 pm
by mathiverse
And *that* brings us back round to the idea that getting income to cover a 2x, 3x, 4x increase in electricity is also easier with a low starting point as we make our way to 10x. :)

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 1:12 pm
by M
7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Sep 05, 2022 11:33 am
Yeah, I grok that. What I am saying is that even though I went this entire summer without air conditioning in an attic apartment, I am still too slacker to work-for-money enough to afford 10x increase in electric bill. I will just do whatever else I have to do to make my bill even lower* before I will accumulate the 10x comfort margin reserve. IOW, the size of reserve is arbitrary and has something to do with personality/psychology.

Anyways, veering too far off topic. I will address further in my own journal.

*For instance, instead of staying flopped on my mattress reading library books during the hot part of the day, I will go down to the beach and intermittently immerse myself/seek shade and read library books during the hot part of the day. Or trade the pleasure of my company for the air conditioning available in some CalorieKing’s domicile during the hottest days of the month. Or read library books in the air conditioned public library. Etc etc etc
A few more ideas for handling no AC situation:

At my old house we had no AC and did similar things like go to the library, go visit other people when it got to hot. Some days we would stay home though. We had no AC but we had blackout curtains so pre kids we would fill the tub with cold water and walk around naked all day. When we got too hot we would just jump in the tub for a few minutes then towel off. This + fans worked surprisingly well. We had no basement there.

At my current house we have a full finished basement which IMO is the best solution to avoiding heat that requires no electricity. One year we lost AC and simply spent the summer in the basement. The basement always stayed in the 70s, regardless of outside or upstairs temperature. This was surprisingly easy to do, even with kids.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 2:07 pm
by chenda
Its probably a good idea not to live anywhere where you can't live without air conditioning.

I can still remember circa 1992 when a friends dad bought a car with air conditioning and it was thought to be the height of luxury and extravagance. Fathers congregated around to admire the little buttons.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 3:06 pm
by WFJ
Someone posed this question 20+ years ago in a desert that is flush with water due to a dam that is subject to significant volatility of supply, "Should water be provided to urban tourist areas with $250/round golf course that generates millions in tax revenues (who also donate to political campaigns) or provided to rural areas with low-skilled labor and strawberry farms that generate almost no tax revenues?" Nobody is resilient to water scarcity in any desert and always subject to a 10X+ spike in costs. Many parts of Europe are facing this choice today, provide nat gas to heat homes in developing Europe or provide nat gas to developed market production facilities. The easy answer is provide it to save life, but the areas do not generate enough revenue to support the system. Provide it to productive industrial purposes will generate revenues to sustain the system but result in pitchfork episodes.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:30 pm
by theanimal
M wrote:
Sun Sep 04, 2022 6:00 pm
This is one reason why I like the idea of an electric car. If we have hit some sort of peak fossil fuel scenario and prices start spiking for gasoline and electric it's much easier to buy solar panels to produce one's own electricity to charge a car than to build an oil refinery. The sun will keep shining regardless of what the stock market or inflation is doing.
A Tesla Model 3 battery has 53.6 kWh capacity. If you were to charge your batteries multiple times a week, you would likely need at a minimum some 25 kW worth of panels (presuming that you are in an area where solar is even feasible). This accounts for cloudy days and hours when the sun is up and not providing full energy. This would be for the car alone and not account for any other capacity. Photovoltaic cells for panels are still getting denser each year and the panels are getting cheaper. Nonetheless, you'd be paying at current prices near $25,000 for panels. A ~400 W panel will be roughly 4 ft x 7 ft so it'd require 1,750 ft of space for the panels :shock: . If you are off grid, you will have to account for batteries if you want to be able to charge when the sun isn't shining. This setup would need a tremendous amount of batteries and again at current prices would be tens of thousands of dollars. Back of the envelope map suggests ~$30,000. I'm not familiar with inverter capacity on the higher end, but that would be an additional cost and likely at lower power than on the grid. Of course, it may be possible to devise a way to charge the EV batteries directly negating some of the costs.

Bike is looking more an more like the better option. 8-)

I live off grid with solar panels as the primary energy source. So speaking from experience it is far, far easier to maintain my low electricity needs with a small setup/low electricity requirements and use an efficient ICE car than to scale my electrical setup for "lower" carbon emitting vehicles/products.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:19 pm
by theanimal
theanimal wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 6:10 pm
Beware of conflating policy (real or desired) with technological reality.
"California Ratchets Up Grid Emergency as Blackouts Loom"
What happens with further increases in electrical loads in a world where scenarios like this seem to happen with more regularity? How do people with EVs in 2035 react to being told they can't drive on certain days or at all?

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 11:04 pm
by M
theanimal wrote:
Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:30 pm
A Tesla Model 3 battery has 53.6 kWh capacity. If you were to charge your batteries multiple times a week, you would likely need at a minimum some 25 kW worth of panels (presuming that you are in an area where solar is even feasible). This accounts for cloudy days and hours when the sun is up and not providing full energy. This would be for the car alone and not account for any other capacity. Photovoltaic cells for panels are still getting denser each year and the panels are getting cheaper. Nonetheless, you'd be paying at current prices near $25,000 for panels. A ~400 W panel will be roughly 4 ft x 7 ft so it'd require 1,750 ft of space for the panels :shock: . If you are off grid, you will have to account for batteries if you want to be able to charge when the sun isn't shining. This setup would need a tremendous amount of batteries and again at current prices would be tens of thousands of dollars. Back of the envelope map suggests ~$30,000. I'm not familiar with inverter capacity on the higher end, but that would be an additional cost and likely at lower power than on the grid. Of course, it may be possible to devise a way to charge the EV batteries directly negating some of the costs.

Bike is looking more an more like the better option. 8-)

I live off grid with solar panels as the primary energy source. So speaking from experience it is far, far easier to maintain my low electricity needs with a small setup/low electricity requirements and use an efficient ICE car than to scale my electrical setup for "lower" carbon emitting vehicles/products.
I can't go into too much detail about location and whatnot but - my roof is well over 2,500 square feet and ... perfectly south facing. An electric car would be charged twice a month, or about 120 kwh per month in my case. I drive about 6,000 miles per year. I am on grid and would certainly not be buying batteries.

Unfortunately bicycle is not an option due to active family of six and the nearest grocery store being 30 miles away or so. I can barely fit the groceries in my current car. I envy the people who can haul 150 lbs of groceries 30 miles on a bike trailer through heavy traffic but I don't have that kind of stamina currently. I also need to haul six people to various places.

I have 1.5 million net worth and I'm still working so 30k is certainly possible.

I have thought about this before but the ROI on solar panels was so low I didn't pull the trigger. These days though, with all the tax credits on solar panels and electric vehicles, and more importantly the lack of decent and secure investment alternatives, I have been thinking about it again. I have enough in I-bonds to pay for the panels that I wouldn't need to touch my actual investments.

And - to be frank - given my situation in life and knowledge of climate change I increasingly wonder if I don't have some morale duty to actually do something about my carbon footprint/energy consumption instead of continuing to dump 100k+ every year into VTI while watching the world burn down around me, partially due to my own actions.

Also - I would never buy a tesla. I'm thinking more like a used Chevy bolt (15k or so) after my current gas burner dies. Or whatever cheap used ev exists when my gas car dies. This could be 10 years from now though, it's hard to say.

I'm not sure if this actually makes sense or not though - this is just my current line of thinking. I'm still very much in the thinking this plan through stage. It's nice to hear from someone like yourself who has experience with this.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2022 11:32 pm
by M
theanimal wrote:
Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:19 pm
"California Ratchets Up Grid Emergency as Blackouts Loom"
What happens with further increases in electrical loads in a world where scenarios like this seem to happen with more regularity? How do people with EVs in 2035 react to being told they can't drive on certain days or at all?
Eh - I will have one gas car, and one electric car, and will drive whatever isn't hypothetically banned by the government that day. :lol:

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:59 am
by zbigi
jacob wrote:
Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:39 am
Let me rephrase this in another way. If you can't suffer a 10x price increase of X, you're too dependent on X, because you can be priced out of the economy. I don't think the solution is to accumulate more money. (...)
You can also just put your money into TIPS-like products. Then, the rising prices of staples do not concern you. The drawback is that TIPS don't have any real return, so you'd need much more money, compared to implementing some variant of the 4% rule.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 7:10 am
by Ego
A lot of really interesting real-time data on our grid, capacity, costs, and forecasts here.

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/index.html

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 7:55 am
by ducknald_don
@M you really need two of each with odd and even numbered number plates just in case your government implements one of those traffic reduction schemes as well.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:47 am
by M
ducknald_don wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 7:55 am
@M you really need two of each with odd and even numbered number plates just in case your government implements one of those traffic reduction schemes as well.
Haha hahaha :lol:

I have never heard of such a thing.

There is so much political hatred here of electric cars I could see them getting banned, thus I will keep a gas vehicle as well.

But - I doubt they will ban a gas vehicle here for traffic reasons. There are more guns and trucks than people here, our schools and infrastructure are failing and the local police don't have the funding or care to enforce the current laws anyway.

Also no one wants to live here, so the traffic is not horrible compared to other areas of the USA.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:04 am
by chenda
ducknald_don wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 7:55 am
@M you really need two of each with odd and even numbered number plates just in case your government implements one of those traffic reduction schemes as well.
Or alternatively:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/o-leary ... i-1.351217

Yes I think Singapore periodically bans certain car registration groupings to cut congestion.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:31 pm
by M
chenda wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:04 am
Or alternatively:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/o-leary ... i-1.351217

Yes I think Singapore periodically bans certain car registration groupings to cut congestion.
Oh - interesting. I suppose I could go back to the bicycle idea. I have ridden my bike about 20 miles before. I generally do ok until I hit steep hills. I need to get in better shape, physically.

I would need to upgrade my bike trailer to something that can hold at least 15 cubic feet of groceries and 150 lbs. My current bike trailer is too small with too low of weight limit. Groceries for six people for two weeks is a lot of food. All the bags of fruits and vegetables and four gallons of milk tend to weigh things down a lot.

I do have e-bikes as well, and scooters. Max range on the ebike though is about 15 miles. I wonder if they would let me charge my ebike at the grocery store - that would make things a lot easier. Or I could buy a second battery for the ebike.

Of course, I do live on the outskirts of a small rural town in one of the most Republican areas of one of the most Republican states in the USA...which is why I am so dependent on my vehicles to begin with. I'm just not sure if I should be trying to safeguard against government regulation in small town rural America. Many people got incredibly angry here when they passed a law banning people from parking their trucks on their lawn. They are currently trying to get that law overturned. I'm not sure what would happen if they also banned them from driving their trucks.

Also - the gas station is the second largest employer in the town. This would devastate the local economy. :lol:

And that brings me full circle. I'm pretty sure gas stations will still be here in 15 years, at least in small town rural America. Even if gas stations did start closing down, I would have years of notice, as they would likely start closing in several European countries first where petrol is expensive and where electric vehicles are far more popular and encouraged by their government. I will stop worrying about this now.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:13 pm
by chenda
M wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:31 pm
Groceries for six people for two weeks is a lot of food. All the bags of fruits and vegetables and four gallons of milk tend to weigh things down a lot.
Can you get home delivery?

Quite a few petrol stations around here have indeed closed down in recent years, although I think thats smaller independent ones loosing out to the bigger chains and supermarkets, rather than the impact of EV or more WFH.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:11 pm
by M
chenda wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:13 pm
Can you get home delivery?
Well...that was enlightening.

I did not think I could get groceries delivered this far from the store but I just checked and it turns out I can. I am constantly amazed at how convenient the modern age has become. The amount of things I can do just on my smartphone is mind boggling, and I didn't even have one of these things six years ago.

I still do not use an automatic can opener though...that just seems like convenience is being pushed too far.

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:48 pm
by chenda
@M Great! Yes I also draw the line at electronic kitchen gadgets :)