Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

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ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

WFJ wrote:
Mon Feb 20, 2023 10:42 pm
EV's will never replace more than 2% f ICE cars without massive government subsidies and taxes, allowing only the wealthy to drive cars.
20% of new car sales in the UK are EV's and we have removed most subsidies.

You might not like the future but it is coming anyway.

WFJ
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by WFJ »

Citation please?

"20% of EV comments are 100% false".

Since plastic is used to make up a massive proportion of EV vehicles, Big Oil will make $$$$ converting natural gas into plastic and selling EV which last less than five years in hot climates. If you read the articles, Big Oil is struggling to use all the natural gas (can't give it away in some locations), plastic EVs are a perfect place to waste this energy.

Big oil will be making sooooooo much money on plastic EV's they can pump gas for free at gas stations all over the US for hundreds of years. XOM/Aramco/Chenier have nearly $50 billion in plants that convert natural gas into plastic within 2 hours of Tesla's new Austin factory for scale on the "clean energy" EV revolution and how it will enrich big oil (it's also where they make wind turbines, but that is another boom for big oil). Plastic does not grow on trees planted by Bill Gates, Al Gore and Greta Thunberg.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/29/how-the ... orld-.html
https://thisisplastics.com/plastics-101 ... 20polymers.

chenda
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by chenda »

WFJ wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:06 am
How does any of that undermine the transition to EV ?

See government stats here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ember-2022

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grundomatic
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by grundomatic »

WFJ wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:06 am
...Big Oil is struggling to use all the natural gas (can't give it away in some locations)...
I had a friend that used to manage a plastics plant. He told me once that sometimes his COGS was negative.

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Seppia
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Seppia »

Why don’t we put our money where our mouth is?
The thread was started august 2021
Anybody willing to make a long term bet?
My money is with gas stations being alive and well in 2036.
I think there are sites like long bets that will allow us to stay true to our commitments.

Tangent: it is incredible how people’s convictions can change when money is at play. I was once arguing with a clown who insisted Musk would colonize Mars “no later than 2028”
The eventual bet was so incredibly one sided that I offered to put up any sum of his/her liking, up to $10k, not more because I would not want to ruin people.
The guy/gal vanished forever

This bet’s outcome isn’t nearly as clear to me, but it would be interesting to see how people with convictions react (and if they do so differently) with money being at stake.

loutfard
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by loutfard »

Off topic: Money at stake will filter some poor people from prediction markets. Look at how that worked for plural voting in the past. That's not to say there aren't lots of idiotic big mouth pea brains around with oozes of time to spend. I just like to speculate about more effective ways of avoiding those. Avoiding social media looks like a winner there...

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

Seppia wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:56 pm
My money is with gas stations being alive and well in 2036.
That's an easy bet, even if everybody was onboard on EV's there is no way that transition can happen in a quick enough timeframe to obsolete gas stations by then. There are ICE cars rolling off the production line right now that will still be driving around in twenty years or more.

A more interesting question is will we still be making ICE cars in 2036. I'm not so sure about that, at least in terms of volume manufacturing.

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Seppia
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Seppia »

loutfard wrote:
Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:33 am
Off topic: Money at stake will filter some poor people from prediction markets. Look at how that worked for plural voting in the past. That's not to say there aren't lots of idiotic big mouth pea brains around with oozes of time to spend. I just like to speculate about more effective ways of avoiding those. Avoiding social media looks like a winner there...
Disagree: one can bet a sum of money that is meaningful enough to care about the outcome but not big enough to create stress if lost.
To me that may be $5 and to someone else $1 million or $1
ducknald_don wrote:
Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:53 am
A more interesting question is will we still be making ICE cars in 2036. I'm not so sure about that, at least in terms of volume manufacturing.
I'm taking that bet too: >50% of cars produced in 2036 will have some form of gas/diesel powered engine in them (that includes PHEV).
Also willing to be a smaller amount of money on >50% straight up ICE.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Published Jan. 20, 2023

General Motors Co. announced Jan. 20 plans to invest $918 million in four U.S. manufacturing sites, including $854 million to prepare these facilities to produce the company’s sixth generation Small Block V-8 engine and an additional $64 million in Rochester, NY, and Defiance, OH, for castings and components to support EV production.

chenda
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by chenda »

I've linked to this before but I find the argument persuasive. https://shift.newco.co/2017/05/25/this- ... -will-die/
The total cost of owning an electric vehicle is, over its entire life, roughly 1/4 to 1/3 the cost of a gasoline-powered vehicle.

Of course, with a 500,000 mile life a car will last 40–50 years. And it seems absurd to expect a single person to own just one car in her life.

But of course a person won’t own just one car. The most likely scenario is that, thanks to software, a person won’t own any.

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Seppia
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Seppia »

@chenda
The premise of the article seems absurd:


But in 2025, no one wants the oil.


I am willing to take the bet that in 2025 global oil consumption will be above 2020 levels.
Max bet $5k

To add: very interesting that with costs being so low VS ICE Bangladesh India Indonesia etc don’t see EVs taking 100% market share of new auto sales.

chenda
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by chenda »

@Seppia - I think the oil consumption is secondary to the technical changes EV will bring.

Asia is heavily promoting the use of EV.

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Seppia
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Seppia »

Wanna bet? :)

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

Seppia wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:23 pm
Wanna bet? :)
That's getting a bit tiring now.

zbigi
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by zbigi »

ducknald_don wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:23 am
That's getting a bit tiring now.
Perhaps, but it's a perfect way to verify if someone really believes in what they're saying. If they do, they should get out of their way to take the bet, as they're basically being offered free money.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I am willing to bet $5 that at some juncture prior to 2038 we will see dogs riding solo through affluent neighborhoods in self-driving EVs on their way to grooming appointments.

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Seppia
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Seppia »

ducknald_don wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:23 am
That's getting a bit tiring now.
It is a great way to separate wishful thinking from real conviction.
I am a staunch proponent of emissions reduction because I generally hate waste, but believe most policies enacted today are either unrealistic or straight up counterproductive. If feels at times that green movement is either trying to fight physics (historical success rate: 0%) or are anti-human
The obsession for EVs or wind farms are two of them that have alternative solutions that are both more effective AND more realistically implementable (push people to buy smaller cars* and massive development of nuclear powered plants)

*This can be done in a variety of ways: tax on a global scale bigger/more powerful engines even more than we already do in Europe is a good example. A 3cyl Panda is significantly better for the environment than a Plaid Tesla or the new absurd Electric Trucks coming on the market in the USA (F-150, Hummer etc)
Last edited by Seppia on Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

As somebody who drives a very small Smart car in the U.S., I must note that I sometimes think this was an idiotic choice given the current road and weather conditions which may further deteriorate in the future. Very small cars are great for driving in an affluent city with well-maintained infrastructure, and pleasant, predictable weather. Not so much in my neck-of-the-woods where I'm likely to hit a giant pothole or a patch of black ice very frequently.

chenda
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by chenda »

@7w5 - I believe Mercedes have discontinued sales in the US so you'll probably find a ready buyer.

I remember those really shitty Yugos and other eastern block cars were still quite common here in the 1990s. Though they were probably quite good value for occasional use.

WFJ
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by WFJ »

chenda wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:13 pm
How does any of that undermine the transition to EV ?

See government stats here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ember-2022
I'll commit $1,000,000 to anyone that gas stations will be around long before everyone on this forum becomes completely carbon neutral (100+ years).

If Exxon, Aramco, Cheniere, etc find enough natural gas to produce 50X plastic EV's in the next 500 years, they will find X times more oil, making it free for anyone willing to use it. Natural gas produces will need 50X more qualified people to explore, finance and work in the fields, not URM minority Biden hires, but qualified people (there's a major shortage right now, so problem 1 is find 50X more petroleum engineers and roughnecks to work the fields).

Assuming someone finds, trains and manages these new workers (most American teens are too dumb and fat to make it into basic training, can't work in the oil fields), the natural gas finds usually "dwarf" (below) the oil deposits found in the same locations, so if 50x more natural gas is found, this means (dwarf X 50 current natural gas) will be how much oil will be found, enough to provide free gasoline for thousands of years. Will anyone buy a plastic EV that lasts 1/3 as long anywhere that has a summer (anywhere 50 or more miles East of the Pacific Ocean in the US) when gasoline is free? This is ignoring the more complex problem of rare earth mining, plastic EV disposal and battery disposal, which are far more complex and less likely to be solved with chanting slogans and repeating Al Gore, Bill Gates and Greta Thunberg sound bites.

This means 50x Keystone pipelines, 50X Nord Streams, so every time someone is dumb enough to stop the development of natural gas and oil delivery systems (Keystone) or blows up the most efficient means of transporting natural gas from one of the largest producers (Russia) to one of the most efficient users (Germany), they are setting back EV evolution by decades if not centuries.

https://education.nationalgeographic.or ... tural-gas/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas%2Foil_ratio

50x is conservative as there are 1.5 billion cars and 10 million EVs, so more like 150X, so 3x more difficult than above estimates.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=total+num ... cc=0&ghpl=

https://www.bing.com/search?q=total+num ... cc=0&ghpl=

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