Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

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Alphaville
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Alphaville »

Dream of Freedom wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:37 pm
I'm calling this a successful prediction.
that was a fast win for sure

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Bankai
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Bankai »

* US & UK economies will boom due to printing press, bounce off covid lows and massive household spending from pent-up demand
* indexes in both countries will outperform: FTSE due to reversion to the mean after 4.5 years of underperformance from Brexit & US simply because it has the best companies in the world (low double-digit return for both?)
* eurozone markets will continue to underperform
* there will be between 2-4 pullbacks over 5% and maybe 1-2 over 10% corrections
* high PE will become higher and low PE will stay low => growth will continue to outperform value
* some governments will wake up to growing inequality and start implementing more redistribution/equalization policies
* travel industries will continue to struggle
* technology stocks will continue higher, although different groups/themes will lead
* some of these themes will do well: gene editing / wider biotech / renewbles / cloud
* some "disruptors" without earnings will do well (the likes of PLTR, JMIA etc.)
* new boom market in commodities

white belt
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by white belt »

A few thoughts from my perspective:

-Oil squeeze will send prices through the roof. There’s been a lack of capital flowing into oil production and a lack of demand due to COVID. The green revolution will displace oil with alternative energies eventually, but it’s not going to happen overnight because building out infrastructure takes time. Once COVID restrictions are relaxed in the summer, demand will return.

-Copper will boom because it’s required for any type of alternative energy.

-Uranium will boom as nuclear power comes back in vogue to provide round the clock clean electricity when solar and wind can’t.

-BTC will be heavily regulated. I’m thinking the govt will say that it is not a currency or money, but just a commodity. Expect taxes on it and no your customer rules for using it to transact with any business or financial institution (especially after the government pushes the narrative that it’s being used by terrorists, criminals, etc).

-Populist uprisings across the USA will continue to increase volatility. There may be a few week long honeymoon period after covid restrictions are lifted, but eventually the dust will settle and people will realize they are in the same economic situation.

Dream of Freedom
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Dream of Freedom wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:32 pm
We have a nice sized melt-up.
Yep
Then a crash.
Not of the magnitude, I thought. No.
Oil will rise as fracking is banned.
Biden only banned it where there is actually oil. So technically no, but practically yes. I'm taking it as correct.
By the end of the year some of the shrewd ones will understand that what no fixed location really means is that their job is going to India.
No one mainstream is talking about this yet. No.
Political protests will increase in both size and intensity. People hope that the left will stop because Trump is gone. They'll be wrong.
Spot on.

3 out of 5

ducknald_don
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by ducknald_don »

Bankai wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:37 am
* US & UK economies will boom due to printing press, bounce off covid lows and massive household spending from pent-up demand
I don't know about the US but the UK is looking rather unhealthy at the moment. I don't know how much is Covid and how much is Brexit.

It's hard to find accurate figures because for some strange reason the government doesn't collect the stats but it looks like between 500,000 and 1.3 million EU nationals left the UK for good. That is a big chunk of the productive population to lose and I can't see how it won't have an affect on the size of the economy.

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Seppia
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Seppia »

Lots of great takes.
Unemployable nailed almost everything. Congrats.

Married2aSwabian
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Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:45 pm

Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by Married2aSwabian »

jacob wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm
Try going back to 2017 :mrgreen: viewtopic.php?p=146650#p146650 (pay particular attention to item #2)

I generally don't dabble in timing with these things nor in investing matters. "What" is a lot easier than "When" with the tools I have, so I'd rather set up for what's going to happen and wait for conditions to evolve towards my position than trying to catch a situation as it's unfolding or about to unfold. I try to read predictions accordingly (like scenarios) and for the same reason I'm not "timing" my own.
This is quite remarkable: other than the high mortality rate, you completely nailed it.

thedollar
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Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021

Post by thedollar »

A look at my predictions...

2021 Predictions
  • Cash is trash will continue to rule in 2021. Lots of cash currently on the sideline as well as huge stimulus will continue to inflate assets.
  • BTC will hit $100,000 - Peaked at $67,xxx
  • Gold hits $2,000 - Did not materialize
  • S&P500 hits $4,000 for the first time ever! - Currently at 4,789 - wow!
  • TSLA hits $1,000 - Yes yes yes! multiple times
  • Value stocks will see increase as they are considered a new type of bond like investment. The increase will be modest due to their carbon intensive nature. - Did not materialize
  • Tech and green/ethical equity will once again see the larges gains as growth in their revenue/profits are not directly linked to carbon emissions. - Did not materialize

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