I guess the opportunity would be in a long-short portfolio where you could be long a stock that is also trending up, is also profitable with earnings growth, and is also in the leisure industry. A quick screen presents me with JOUT (Johnson Outdoors) with P/E of 19 and P/S of 1.7...
Since original post 12/20:
PTON: +1.1%
JOUT: +7.6%
Or since 12/22 after the "sell the news" event of PTON buying Precor:
PTON: -9.5%
JOUT: +3.1%
50/50 short/long: +6.3% vs. +0.4% for S&P500
I know, it's too short of a time frame / too small of a sample size to mean anything, but it's hard to resist posting about a good bet even if you didn't take it.
class action lawsuits aside, this exercise fad was crazy overvalued by the stimmy trade and pandemic blineers. but the timing--the timing is all. yes it was coming, "when" is always the problem.
My current "fantasy short" right now is lumber futures but I believe just a single contract right now would represent about $137k, so that one little bet would easily swing $5-10k per day. I am able to trade futures but haven't traded any commodities futures before. Probably a very bad idea to do so... if I sold a contract 3 days ago when it started to dip, I'd be down about $10k as it is now back up to new highs.
Still, it is crazy parabolic and seems it shouldn't last much longer. Lumber looks like oil in 2008, except taking just one year to run up instead of about 5 for oil.
Hindsight is 20/20. Many a short has been blown up by the market before they had the chance to remain solvent and be profitable. I seem to recall many Tesla shorts getting destroyed for the past 1.5 years when they were convinced it was overvalued.
Up 50% in the past 5 days....So tempting to put a $40 strike put for a year out and just sell when the inevitable rug gets pulled. But I would be worried about an IV crush.