Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

[Jean]

Drones dépendant on a computer to fly. Computer are very cheap today, but very hard to produce from scratch. Thé actual shortage in computer parts could be a sign that supply chain for cheap computer parts aren't very robust.
On the other hand, i was able to build a radio from résistord and capacitors as an eigth years old following a plan.
Maybe stockpilling basic electronic parts and hundreds of raspberry pi in an oil jar is a good Idea?

[classical_Liberal]

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[white belt]

This doesn't need to be done in advance, hence wasting energy/money in a redundancy and maybe picking the wrong geographic place/ideology.

All you have to do, is have valuable skills that will create a magnetic pull for you towards wherever is doing the best. Do you think doctors and nurses had a hard time traveling because of COVID, or maybe even easier than normal? Pick a skill you need anyway, one that a haven in collapse would need badly, and become competent in a way that's recognized by others who are competent.

This makes the mobility option, far and away, the most successful option. With that skill base, some real assets to grease the wheels, the borders suddenly become porous.

I'd say it depends on the speed of the crisis/collapse we're talking about. If you have the flexibility and foresight to move in the early stages of crisis then you may be able to escape without foreign citizenship. But if you do not get ahead of the masses, you're going to have trouble when everyone has the same idea about migration and countries close borders, as they have done in virtually every immigration crisis throughout history.

I agree skills will always trump assets, but of course the ideal system is to have both. I know of a girl who escaped Venezuela prior to total collapse, I believe because she had some kind of wealthy relative connection in the USA that allowed her to get a visa. She was a dentist in Venezuela but was unable to find similar employment in the USA without attending dental school again.

[jacob]

She was a dentist in Venezuela but was unable to find similar employment in the USA without attending dental school again.

This is a standard lament among ME refugees in Scandinavia (possibly also the rest of the EU) with medical doctors ending up as janitors because they don't have the required local certification regardless of whether they have the skills. Even if the skills are otherwise in demand, it's no bueno without the cert. They definitely did not make it across the border because of their degree. Rather the money/educated foresight allowed them to buy transport in good time before the masses decided to move.

[classical_Liberal]

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[Jean]

Professional skills are way over rated. I was in the top of my class from a top uni in a stem field, and couldn't integrate in the work force in m'y own country, so i Can imagine that in an other culture, it would have been even harder, and useless.

[jacob]

@jacob
Your PhD in physics had nothing to do with your ability to move to and work in the USA? or was it the primary mover?

Only indirectly in the sense that it was a required but not sufficient condition to get a research job offer from a university. After I accepted the job, they sponsored a time-limited non-immigrant visa contingent on my continued working for them. You don't get a general work or entry permit to the US just for holding a phd.

[classical_Liberal]

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[jacob]

@cL - Ueberspecialization allows you to pass the high bar of "only insofar the job can't be filled by a native" which these visas require. This means that both you AND the particular job need to be so specialized that no qualified Americans were available at the time. Hence "required but not sufficient". Again, these arrangements are for non-immigrant visas. Think of them as a glorified tourist visa that allows you to work one specific job position for 1-2 years. I've seen a few people being able to do these for years as visiting research professors around the world, but it's a very precarious lifestyle.

They're really like a student visa but working a job instead of going to school. So time-limited, requires being admitted to the school/job, maintaining good standing, not allowed to study/work on anything beyond the stipulated [study/job] description, ...

In short, not a good strategy against collapse. Indeed, I would almost say it's the opposite in that it only works when the world is relatively stable. For example, some researchers got screwed during TravelBan1 as their visas were surprise-cancelled while they were sitting in the plane midair. That's after having quit their previous job, put their stuff in storage, cancelled their lease, etc.

[classical_Liberal]

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[unemployable]

I'm finding more and more, on this forum and other places, inflexibility is the Achilles heal for many of us (me included). It's almost the same as hyper-specialization in skills, but rather this is in ideas. Things like this thread, always focusing on certain ideas, predictions, models, to the exclusion of others. A lack of confidence (need a better word) that we can deal with anything that's thrown our way. Given how capable and intelligent most forumites are, I'm really surprised to see this lack of faith in abilities here. Not that we shouldn't be critical of ourselves, but not to the extent that we lose confidence in our abilities and agency.

This gives rise to a nice, succinct definition of collapse: It's only a collapse if I can't deal with it.

I stand by my statement there won't be a collapse in my lifetime.

[Alphaville]

This gives rise to a nice, succinct definition of collapse: It's only a collapse if I can't deal with it.

I stand by my statement there won't be a collapse in my lifetime.

counterpoint: structures and systems are collapsing all the time, all around us and within us, whether we notice them or not.

most of those we deal with, until eventually one day we don't. then we recover, and go on, repeat the process, until eventually we don't.

everything is collapsing all the time, sometimes so fast that it surprises us, sometimes too slow to notice.

[unemployable]

Yeah, but that's not COLLAPSE collapse. Maybe I've watched too many post-apocalyptic movies. Like I can just move somewhere else? So what?

[Jean]

@C_L
Have you ever looked at immigration procedure in an other country?
I'm not under the impression that the US are much harder than any other country.
Moving within Europe was very easy before covid, but that is the exception. I checked for most western nation, south america, a few african country, and it's not easy at all.
I think the US only get a bad rep because it's a wall a lot of people throw themselves at, but I don't think it's the hardest one.
But as said before, betting on a skill now to have options later is very precarious, because unless you're very specialized on a very usefull skill (like, you're one of the few person in the world who have experience building rockets in 1945), there will be ten of thousand of people with similar skillsets. When you will see for sure that you should move and where, it will be to late, because it will be clear for everyone else too.
Of course, more skill means more option, but it means more option now, in a relatively stable world, and if you think you might have to leave the US at some point, you should assess your options now.
For example, I think the last good time to leave France was 1 year ago, and now, while the door to eastern europe isn't closed, it's getting harder, because it's getting clearer that it's better to leave. Will it become the same for germany or switzerland, i don't know.

[ertyu]

This doesn't need to be done in advance, hence wasting energy/money in a redundancy and maybe picking the wrong geographic place/ideology.

All you have to do, is have valuable skills that will create a magnetic pull for you towards wherever is doing the best. Do you think doctors and nurses had a hard time traveling because of COVID, or maybe even easier than normal? Pick a skill you need anyway, one that a haven in collapse would need badly, and become competent in a way that's recognized by others who are competent.

This makes the mobility option, far and away, the most successful option. With that skill base, some real assets to grease the wheels, the borders suddenly become porous.

lol you figured you would explain this to the forum's career gastarbeiter. i edited out the rest of what i had to say about this but the gist of it was, "omfg can you believe this guy"

fact remains: americans, and in general westerners, often have a blind spot when it comes to the realities of how politics and regulation - and the military - can be used to limit labor mobility, and think themselves exempt. i hope that the arrogance rooted in exceptionalism doesn't come back to bite you in the ass -- i hope that all of us will pass away before shit properly hits the fan. but the fact remains: somehow, humanity needs to drastically reduce its numbers. just like many found their illusions crushed when their ideas of how their gvt would react to a pandemic met reality, many would find their illusions crushed when it comes to their own gvt's willingness to respect their humanity in the face of climate collapse.

[chenda]

For example, I think the last good time to leave France was 1 year ago, and now, while the door to eastern europe isn't closed, it's getting harder, because it's getting clearer that it's better to leave. Will it become the same for germany or switzerland, i don't know.

You mean people leaving eastern Europe to move to France ?

[Jean]

I mean leaving France to go to eastern Europe.

[chenda]

I mean leaving France to go to eastern Europe.

Why ? I think lots more eastern Europeans have moved to France and western Europe..

[Jean]

The country isn't safe now. Imagine how it will be when the CAF stops paying handout. Effective tax rate is arount 70%. You can go to prison for writing books or commenting on the internet. A huge part of the youth wants to apply Sharia Law.
OTOH in eastern Europe, you can walk home at night as a women nearly anywhere (so you're not affraid about what might happen to your wife or children), taxes are reasonable, you can create a company and make a living.
It's not big like the US, you can't really escape it by moving to another part of the country, so many french are enjoying the freedom of move that that EU allows, and move to estonia, or romania.
edit: I'm not even including the way France reacted to Covid, but that was a trigger for many, some literally filled their car and drove overnight to Prag without a complete plan.

[classical_Liberal]

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