Western Red Cedar's Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
Scott 2
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Scott 2 »

guitarplayer wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 9:39 am
@Scott2 this was a good post; could you give a quick example of ‘physical closure required for mental stressors’?
Something that tells our caveman brain danger passed. Exercise. Sex. Creating - food, music, art. Group activity - dancing, sports.

Emily Nagoski covers the idea well in her book Burnout, though it is not unique to her. Modern stress opens primitive responses, but fails to close them.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

Thanks everyone for the encouraging words!
MBBboy wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:30 am
DW has been trying to get us to vacation there for as long as we've been together, and I've always refused. Perhaps a glowing report from you will make me reconsider!
I'm a big fan of Mexico and have taken two separate, month-long solo trips there. I think it is an amazing country with kind people, stunning landscapes, exciting cities, great art, delicious food and good deals. I highly recommend it. I haven't really done a resort style trip, and I imagine that has quite a different flavor than some of the independent travel I did a decade ago. Even though we are heading to more touristy destinations this summer, we'll be staying in AirBnB's and designing our own itinerary.
Frugalchicos wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 6:45 am
Also, the mexico trip and the concerts you mentioned upthread sound amazing. Part of the ERE process in my case is also learning that is ok and healthy to spend some money in things or experiences you want.
I think this is really important and something I've thought a lot about. Glad to see you picked up a new longboard. That is the kind of purchase that will keep giving back - with good memories and time in nature. The trip to Seattle was a bit of a test as it seemed like every meal out was at least $50, but we were guests all week and I didn't want to feel cheap.

I don't want to adopt a YOLO mentality, and I know that in many cases a more creative solution is superior to spending money, but I also don't want to be a miser who lets life pass him by.

Ironically, I think you encouraged me to take more vacations a while back to help balance work out, so I basically took your advice. :D
mountainFrugal wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:20 pm
Have a great time at the cabin and post a picture or two of the rainy scenes.
Ask and ye shall receive:

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We pulled up to the cabin around 5:30 and I saw this guy hanging out in the old orchard. This is the main spot that Morels pop up in year after year. I thought it was a good omen. It wasn't raining out so DW and I decided to head out and start foraging before we started a fire or unpacked.

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This is the cherry tree that just keeps giving. I have fond memories of gorging myself on cherries as a kid, and eating them frozen into the fall. Years later it helps support a healthy Morel crop every year in early May:

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We spent a few hours near the cabin looking in the two main spots. These were the two largest mushrooms we found, though we initially walked right by them.

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The next day we hiked up to a forested wetland that our family refers to as the beaver ponds, which is on our neighbors property. We didn't have much luck, but found a patch on the hike back down. We also saw a lot of wildlife near the pond, which is pretty typical. A couple deer, pheasants, geese and goslings (which was DW's favorite), and some wild turkeys. Plus a whole lot of birds that I couldn't identify.

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DW and I made a Shepherds Pie with a side of Morels cooked in a large portion of butter and garlic. Very tasty.

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Frugalchicos
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Frugalchicos »

Ironically, I think you encouraged me to take more vacations a while back to help balance work out, so I basically took your advice. :D
Hey,

I’m glad I served as an inspiration. I see money as a tool to do/live I want. I am aware certain things are expensive and need to spend the money we hardly saved. As you said, I don’t want all this money game to make me a cheap miser. Sometimes it just a fine line between being cheap and frugal.

Also, for traveling, you can get amazing deals some travel hacking with CCs - All the Chase cards are amazing for it

theanimal
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by theanimal »

Great photos, thanks for sharing! Looks like the perfect conditions for hiking around. What's the normal snowpack duration in that area? I'm assuming it's continuous for at least a few months?

Those are some massive morels! Towards the end of next month will be the season up here depending on if we get any rain. There was a fire kinda close to town so it'll be easy access. That has me curious that you are able to find them so reliably there. Up here they are really only present after fires, with maybe the occasional rare one outside a burn area.

Also, a belated congrats on the job and avoiding complacency!

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

@Frugalchicos - I'm definitely into travel hacking. Though I'm not as active as I could be. I don't really like to have more than three cards at the same time, but will open a new account every 12-18 months when I know we have a big purchase coming up so I don't have to worry about hitting the minimum spend on the new card. I used the Alaska companion pass for our airline tickets to Mexico.

@theanimal - Thanks! We were talking about complacency and slacking at our last mastermind session. There is a legitimate risk of having that mentality drift into other areas of life in my opinion.

The snowpack up there typically lasts around five months, sometimes a little longer.

The Morels definitely grow under the same couple of trees year after year. My niece found another patch by a creek yesterday, so that is exciting. I've heard from a lot of people that they grow near burns, but haven't actually found them near any old burns. We have some areas close to the old orchard where we burn and they've never popped up there.

It seems to me like the do well in areas with disturbed soil. They'll often grow on the edges of trails. Because they tend to be a little elusive, I've just settled on trying to find some hikes that I know I'll enjoy where conditions might be right. If I don't find any, I've at least had a nice hike in a beautiful spot. Good luck next month!

shaz
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by shaz »

Congratulations on the new job and the Mexico trip sounds fantastic. Can't wait to read the after trip report.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

June Update

Financial:

NW - 426,545 (Increase of 3,016). I was pleasantly surprised to see the markets bounced up near the end of May. I was anticipating another drop in our NW based on my casual observations throughout the month. Looking over the last six months of data it feels a bit like we are treading water. Nonetheless, we are slowing DCAing and sticking to the plan. I haven't pulled the trigger on I bonds yet.

Health:

I gained 3.7 pounds this month. I was definitely less strict with the diet, which led to gaining an inch on the waistline. I did 19 lifting sessions, and have taken a break from my long bike rides, switching that with walks on my lunch break. I've been more conscious about eating before a lifting session to fuel my workouts and help build muscle. Although I've gained weight, I'm noticing a change in my upper body and have more muscle definition. I look a bit like a middleweight boxer right now, but would like to drop some additional fat over the summer. I've been regularly hitting personal records in my lifting session. I've also started taking a notebook with me to better track my progress and keep pushing myself.

ERE Victories:

DW made a few hundred dollars this month selling her handmade earrings. She gave a few pairs away to coworkers and when people found out she made them, there was a strong demand. She was making special orders for a few folks as well. She's also had a lot of luck thrifting. Her sewing skills allow her to alter just about anything so it actually fits well. She picked up a nice Patagonia jacket at a thrift store this morning for $12 and is in the process of altering it.

I've been playing a lot more guitar lately. I had a random guy come up to me on my porch yesterday and told him that I made his evening with the music I was playing.

*ETA - I also added to my windowsill herb garden this month. My spicy oregano and a spearmint plant were the only two that had done well through the winter. I bought a few basil plants, and dug up some peppermint, lemon balm, and a couple other varieties of oregano. My dad recommended digging up some of the heartier herbs in his garden. I also picked up some raspberry bushes, strawberry plants, squash and basil for my dad. His garden is always impressive and I fortunately get to reap the rewards later in the year. I've been eating through heap of lovage from his garden this month, and need to do some baking with rhubarb he gave us.

Professional:

Work stress has started popping up a bit more. I've got some big deadlines coming up and need to travel out of town for a couple days for a meeting. I'll need to crank on Monday and Tuesday. I had a chance to attend a conference for two and a half days at a beautiful mountain resort. I learned a lot and had a good time reconnecting with professional colleagues in my field. It made me realize I've been isolating a bit too much and need to put more energy into connecting with others.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

July Update

Financial

NW 407,132 (decrease of 19,413). Looking back over my spreadsheets I realized that we are slightly worse off financially than we were at this point last year. It doesn't feel great honestly, but I was probably getting a bit overenthusiastic about a potential departure date.

DW and I talked quite a bit about finances over the last few days, and refined our approach to finances. She wants to commit to a low-buy/no-buy period. She also created a budget for herself with a fixed amount per month (130-150) for personal expenses.This typically includes things like ballet classes, meals or coffee with friends, or random skin care/health/beauty purchases. All of this came without any pressure from me, and it was a good opportunity to talk about shared financial goals and power imbalances in our relationship due to how we approach finances.

Health

DW and I got Covid halfway through the month. It was worse than I expected and knocked me out for about a week, with a couple days that were pretty bad. I lost my sense of taste for a few days, and was really happy when it returned. It was probably the sickest I've been in the last ten years. Mostly back to normal though.

I lost 2.5 pounds this month, and unfortunately probably lost some muscle as a result of being sick and not eating much. My waste is the same size, but my thighs lost a half inch. I'm back to my regularly lifting routine though, and enjoy my sessions as a break from work and an opportunity to get out of my head. At the end of May I started bringing a notebook with me and tracking my lifts/reps. In early to mid June I was regularly hitting PRs for many of my lifts. Having data to reflect on meant that I wasn't just relying on memory, and encouraged me to push myself a bit more. I want to be careful that I'm not sacrificing form for weight though.

Professional

I'm shifting well into my new role, and continue to enjoy working from home. I had a chance to see a bunch of old colleagues, and meet new ones, for the first time since Covid at a staff retreat. I'm following the advice of other forumites and using a lot of vacation time this summer. Taking quite a bit of time off in July for camping and lake trips, as well as the first three weeks of August. All of the time off has made it challenging to pick up some of my new responsibilities at work, but my management team is supportive of that.

Musings:

I shifted a bit from my literature focus on health, and read a couple biographies/autobiographies in June. I read Trevor Noah's Born a Crime and Kansas City Lightning, which is about Charlie Parker. It's always fascinating, and often inspiring, to read about the lives of others. The Trevor Noah book, in particular, made me extremely grateful to be living where I am, with the opportunities that I have. I'm currently in the middle of Joan Didion's Slouching Towards Bethlehem.

Unfortunately, due to Covid, I had to bail on a trip to see my brother and go on our first backpacking excursion in 15 years. We had our sights on the North Cascades, but it wasn't meant to be. Probably for the best that I didn't push it, because a couple days before I was supposed to leave I took a walk by the river and got really winded after a few miles in the sun. I don't think I would have done well with a 25-30 pound pack at elevation. Fortunately, DW and I decided to do an impromptu backpacking trip at the end of the month, and had the whole site on a beautiful lake to ourselves. The mosquitos were brutal, and we got eaten alive, but the views were lovely. I also got to use my new ultralight tent for the first time.

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This is the site of an old trapper's cabin that probably dates back to the 20's. It is pretty amazing to read about the local history, and imagine the living conditions 100+ years ago. The lake served as a major hub of transport between various homesteaders and small settlements.

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I also had a chance to check out Palouse Falls while on a road trip before getting Covid. It had been on my bucket list for a long time:

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Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

Mastermind Follow-Up:

I opted to focus my mastermind deep dive on finding purpose after a traditional career last month. I was working from a general framework that purpose stems from family, friendship, meaningful work, and faith/philosophy. That the basic elements of happiness stem from enjoyment, satisfaction, and meaning. I believe his comes from Arthur C. Clarke, but not certain. I'm not strongly tied to this framework, but it seemed a good foundation to think about purpose and meaning outside of a career. I'm fortunate to work on interesting problems at work, and to be a part of something that is bigger than myself.

A few insights from the MM feedback:

-I tend to shift back and forth between a purpose and mission orientation, and a "living well" orientation. I would do well to continue trying to find balance between the two. A well-constructed system will likely take me there.

-I can work more on accepting who I am. Self-improvement can be part of a well-balanced life, but it can also take on a life of its own. Beware the traps of hyper-productivity.

-I should consider exploring intrinsic motivation and structured motivation. After a career I can structure my life as I want.

-I tend to waver back and forth between a desire for the city and the country - for deep space or deep time.

-I got support for focusing on an active transition after work (long-term slow travel). Passive transitions (freedom from rather than freedom to) run the risk of lacking purpose.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

September Update

I think this was the first time missing a monthly update. I was busy over the last couple months and more social than I've been since early 2020. Out enjoying the beautiful summer and abroad for a few weeks on holiday.

Financial:

We saw a nice increase of 23,244 in July and then a drop of 2,517 in August. I updated my spreadsheets after getting back from our trip around August 20th, then watched our accounts lose 15k+ over the next ten days to end up down for the month. Spending has been higher over the last two months as a result of the vacation and more social activities, but most of the expenses were planned out or in line with my values.

Reading:

Books Finished-

Slouching Towards Bethlehem - Joan Didion
Hail Mary - Andy Weir
Pachinko - Min Jin Lee
The Moneyless Manifesto - Mark Boyle

Currently Reading-

The Moneyless Man - Mark Boyle
Hold the Enlightenment - Tim Cahill

Gratitude:

It took me around 5 years to finish my first gratitude journal after DW gave one to me for Christmas a while back. The journal should have taken 6 months if I was actually doing it daily. Well....I finally established a morning and evening gratitude habit last fall as part of my ERE mastermind group. I finished my current notebook in 7 months. It is such a simple but valuable practice to reframe how I look at the world. It is a bit like exercise or nutrition, in that it takes prolonged habits and routine to begin to see results.

Social Activities and Travel:

July and August were packed full of activities and travel. Shortly after my last update I went to Montana for an annual camping trip with a bunch of old friends for five days. We were on the Clark Fork river again this year, but didn't have to deal with wildfire smoke. The vegetation was lush after several months of above-average precipitation. Lots of fun swimming, cooking, playing horseshoes/cornhole/can-jam, and hanging out by the fire. Bald eagles would fly back and forth along the river, occasionally swooping down to catch some fish.

This guy found a nice spot to perch above my tent:

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DW spent quite a bit of time hanging out by the local river this summer. It isn't ideal for swimming in but is a great spot to cool off. I'd usually bring my guitar and a couple beers, or we'd bring some books and enjoy the sun and scenery. We also met up with old friends visiting town, and went out to a couple different lake cabins for barbecues and swimming.

Our preferred spot to cool off by the river this summer:

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Mexico was the big highlight of the summer. We spent 20 days there, and scheduled a four day stopover in Seattle to see friends and family. Overall, the trip went really well without any major hiccups. At this point in our lives we prefer to travel a little more slowly and try to limit the amount of time we need to spend in trains/planes/buses. We spent the first week in Playa Del Carmen and celebrated our ninth anniversary there. Then went down to Tulum, back up to Cozumel, and back to Playa Del Carmen. I was initially disappointed with my Spanish, but after the first day or two, I gained some confidence and felt much more comfortable conversationally. One evening at our first AirBnb I hung out on the rooftop pool for a couple hours and had a 60 minute conversation with a couple from Mexico City. That felt pretty amazing and inspired me to keep learning on the trip, and after my return.

We spent about 2k for 24 days of travel - just over 3k with airfare. I could have used points to lower some of those costs, but was saving them for some domestic travel. We also had the regular carrying costs (apartment, internet, car insurance, etc) back home. It was definitely a bougie trip but that is basically what we wanted. Infinity pools, one or two meals out per day, and a few adventures like cenotes, ruins, and snorkeling. Even with the luxury, we still flexed our frugality muscles with local buses, rented bicycles, keeping groceries on hand for breakfast and snacks, and going to the best value restaurants for meals out. The food was amazing and very affordable. Cochinita Pibil is a specialty in the region and I got a little obsessed about sampling it from different places. Cozumel was a good change of pace because we stayed in a condo in the hotel zone, stocked up on groceries, cooked all our own meals and snorkeled and read all day.

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One aspect of everything that was a bit hard to swallow was being in the middle of so much consumption. It started with the large international airports, and just seeing the masses of people flying everywhere, thinking about how that is happening every day. Tulum, in particular, was a challenge for me because it seemed to be developing so quickly without very good infrastructure, and expanding outward into the jungle. So much plastic everywhere due to the lack of potable water. Reading The Moneyless Manifesto while I was there probably didn't help. DW was a good sport about discussing some of this stuff, but I also tried to curb these thoughts so I wasn't being too much of a downer. The experience had me reflecting on how I might handle long-term slow travel as a transition into non-traditional/FI lifestyle. I experienced a lot of these dynamics and observations while traveling in my 20's, but I think I've been subconsciously ignoring them while remembering the highlights of those trips.

It was great connecting with friends and family in Seattle. We got out to explore some parks and trails that I hadn't seen before. The costs were a bit of a shock after getting back from Mexico. I covered a meal for three that was basically the same price as a week worth of eating out in Mexico. Returning home and getting back to my regular routines has been really nice as well. I've hung out a lot with friends and family, and managed to head out for a quick, overnight backpacking trip on the edge of the bitterroot mountains.

New trails and parks in Seattle:

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Wind, clouds, and peaceful evenings up in the mountains:

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guitarplayer
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by guitarplayer »

Western Red Cedar wrote:
Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:40 pm

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Wow, magnificent.
Western Red Cedar wrote:
Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:40 pm
Even with the luxury, we still flexed our frugality muscles with local buses, rented bicycles, keeping groceries on hand for breakfast and snacks, and going to the best value restaurants for meals out.
Good stuff. I suppose at some point this just becomes a deeply ingrained habit, doing otherwise might sometimes not even occur. And it makes sense in that it is in complete control how to move about, what to eat etc. E.g. the rent that has to be paid anyway even if someone is out on a holiday is much less in control, because part of a bigger complex system aka living arrangements.
Western Red Cedar wrote:
Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:40 pm
and snorkeled and read all day.
Nice! I have some good snorkeling experiences too.

Otherwise, happy for you that you had a good time off with DW. The photos look great, the US is really quite a place if it comes to nature.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

@gp - thank you! I'm certainly blessed in terms of proximity and access to beautiful natural areas.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

I had an opportunity to catch up with an old friend from graduate school recently. He had transitioned from the public sector to a consulting firm, so it offered a good opportunity to pick his brain about the pros and cons of consulting work in my field. I've known this guy for more than twenty years, and he and his wife lived in Japan teaching English for a couple years, so we have a lot in common. I told him about my early retirement plans five or six years ago, when I had looser lips about that stuff shortly after discovering FIRE.

The good new is he thinks I would be highly competitive in consulting, and could probably charge a large billable rate based on my professional experience. Part time is a potential option, and he's working PT since he has a new baby. But...when I pressed him he said there was quite a bit of pressure to hit certain targets for billable hours each month. At his current firm, he said it was like 85% target, but they weren't too anal about it. The engineers and attorneys I work with tell me that the pressure to hit billable targets can be pretty stressful, so it isn't something I would seriously consider right now.

It does open up some other possibilities down the road if I want to take the extended sabbatical, Semi-ERE route. Another option is to open a 1-person consulting shop, and just pick up projects that I want to work on. I've known a few people that went this route, but it was usually after working for a larger consulting firm.

This would allow me to avoid working with clients, or on projects, that don't fit into my ethical framework. It would also allow me set my own schedule. But, from what I can tell there is a lot of hustling and self-promotion with this type of setup. Maybe that isn't the case if I'm only trying to make $20k per year as a side income though.

Sometimes I get tunnel vision based on my current circumstances and goals. It is valuable for me to have these kinds of discussions to open up my perspective on potential possibilities.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

October Update:

Financial

NW - 402,008 (decrease of 25,851). Another rough month in the markets, though I consider myself fortunate that I'm still working. I don't think I would be as calm about the volatility if I was actively drawing down from the stash, which indicates that I may want to slowly transition to a more conservative allocation once I walk away from a steady income source. Part of my MM project for the new phase is to refine my financial plan and dig a little deeper into the numbers. Right now I'm thinking about my margin of safety, and how I want to actually draw down the stash to fund expenses. I'm currently leaning toward a rising equity glide path, with approximately 3-4 years in a combination of cash, i bonds, and some sort of cd ladder. This would fit well with a lean FI or SemiERE approach as I would have some flexibility to return to work if the markets remain bearish for an unusually long time. I'm still working through all of this and will likely continue to refine the strategy.

I finally pulled the trigger on 10k in I bonds this week. I was sitting on a lot of cash as I stopped contributing to non-retirement accounts during the market run up in 2021. I held off on purchasing the i bonds because I still had an inkling of a desire to buy a house over the summer as prices have started declining (from ridiculously high initial asking prices). DW and I went and looked at a couple houses with my parents in September. It was in one of the nicest neighborhoods, and they were 375k and 425k. I quickly realized walking into them that they would represent a major expense beyond the asking price. It would also lock us into a lifestyle that would limit opportunities for adventure.

As part of the MM project, I also created a SS account to look at my benefit estimate, and looked at some alternative scenarios for my pension. I was operating with a rough idea that SS and my pension would provide a decent income after turning 65. Now I have some hard data on what I could expect. That has led me to thinking about FI in a two phase approach, and makes me feel a little more secure with the SemiERE strategy.

Professional

I had my yearly evaluation and received some of the highest ratings in my career - mostly exceeds or substantially exceeds expectations. This was a little surprising because I haven't felt particularly productive since returning from Mexico. It was nice to get positive feedback on aspects of my job that I don't really even think about as work. I usually go out of my way to spend a lot of time with new team members, and try to make their onboarding experience as pleasant as possible. I think this is particularly important when most of us are working remotely. I'm also usually pretty active in our staff meetings and try to support a lot of the newer staff with their projects. It doesn't take a lot of my time, but often helps them out significantly. I also realized during the evaluation how valuable it is for my supervisor not to need to worry about any of my projects, and trusting that I'm on top of stuff and getting things done.

While the evaluation was a bright spot, I've still felt like work has been a grind since I got back from vacation. I've really needed to turn my monkey brain off and keep my tablet and phone in another room so I'm not breaking my concentration and ability to engage in deep work. Occasionally I'll get in these funks at work where I'm procrastinating on a big project and don't make a lot of progress over a few weeks. I plan to turn a page this month and get cranking. I'd really like to wrap up my big project by the end of the year so I can focus on some other stuff.

Reading

I finished The Moneyless Man by Mark Boyle and The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel. I enjoyed them both, and preferred The Moneyless Man over the Moneyless Manifesto. The Psychology of Money is a quick and easy read. I think it has the most value for a low WL individual, but I also think there are some important lessons for those at higher levels. I'm quite interested in psychological responses to investing/spending/saving/market volatility. Based on what I've seen with friends and family, the psychology is more powerful than the math.

Life

DW will be taking medical leave from work. This could last for 2-3 months and will likely require relocating to another city for 4-6 weeks. This was a bit of a shock to both of us, but we are grateful that our insurance should cover the majority of the costs. Her work is flexible and supportive, and we found out she qualifies for FMLA. Stoicism has helped me keep things in perspective. I'm hopeful that all of her challenges over the last couple of years will make both of us better and stronger as individuals and a couple.

I plan on heading up to the Shire tomorrow. I've only been up there once this year as I've been busy with other adventures and the cabin has been in high demand from different parts of the family this year. I haven't looked for Chanterelles up there, but they should be out so I plan on doing some exploring/foraging. While I was out on my bike today on my lunch break I thought quite a bit about the documentary on the homestead and my parent's story. I think editing a documentary would be a perfect activity to pair with slow travel. I just need to commit to laying the groundwork and filming some interviews.

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mountainFrugal
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by mountainFrugal »

Western Red Cedar wrote:
Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:36 pm
Occasionally I'll get in these funks at work where I'm procrastinating on a big project and don't make a lot of progress over a few weeks. I plan to turn a page this month and get cranking. I'd really like to wrap up my big project by the end of the year so I can focus on some other stuff.
Based on your review (congrats!) it seems like you might be making more progress then you are letting on. Procrastinating by not putting fingers to keyboard for projects (or equivalent in your case if it is different?) can still lead to progress. Procrastinating something still means it is on your mind even if you are not necessarily focused on it. Not that I am advocating for more procrastination, just that thinking about things in the background over a longer period of time can lead to more insight as everything comes together for a deadline.

mooretrees
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by mooretrees »

Western Red Cedar wrote:
Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:36 pm
October Update:


DW will be taking medical leave from work. This could last for 2-3 months and will likely require relocating to another city for 4-6 weeks. This was a bit of a shock to both of us, but we are grateful that our insurance should cover the majority of the costs. Her work is flexible and supportive, and we found out she qualifies for FMLA. Stoicism has helped me keep things in perspective. I'm hopeful that all of her challenges over the last couple of years will make both of us better and stronger as individuals and a couple.
i hope so too! Best wished to your DW, I hope she gets the care she needs. Other than that bit of news, what a great update! It's fun watching as you get deeper into your post-work money life, I feel like I'm learning alongside you. Do you think ERN is worth the time for someone interested in semi-ERE?

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

Thanks @MF. I tend to have high expectations for myself so I know when I can be working at a higher level even when it isn't completely apparent to an outside observer. I'm wrapping up a 2+ year project and just need to finish strong over the next couple of months.
mooretrees wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:29 pm
It's fun watching as you get deeper into your post-work money life, I feel like I'm learning alongside you. Do you think ERN is worth the time for someone interested in semi-ERE?
Thanks @mt. There are many different flavors of SemiERE. I think the ERN SWR series ( https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-wit ... te-series/) is certainly worth exploring for those who plan to rely heavily on financial assets to fund their post-career lifestyle. It is also really helpful to explore assumptions about the 4% rule of thumb and how different assumptions affect a SWR. The point he made that initially caught my attention was that investing and accumulating is fairly straight-forward, but withdrawal can be much more complicated and one benefits by thinking about strategies before they are close to leaving their career/job. You don't necessarily have to go through each of the posts. You can just look at the areas of interest based on where you are at, and start there.

Looking at the retirement goal on the WL chart, Big ERN's work seems to fill that gap between WL 5-6. It is hard to walk away from reading it feeling comfortable with a 4% SWR unless you have access to a pension, real estate income, etc...

If your SemiERE philosophy includes regular income from side hustles or intermittent work, along with ERE expense levels, then you may be at a WL 7-8 stage and a complicated investing strategy may be less relevant. (SWR is just a backup income and NW is in runaway mode, or NW is irrelevant and $ is "on tap" when needed, limited by skills and access.)

https://earlyretirementextreme.com/wp-c ... evels2.jpg

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

We have extremely similar approach to WR% and drawdown strategy.....maybe because I've read every post in that series, at least 2-3 times.

Is that a combined HH net worth? How many years of expenses does it currently represent?

I recently modeled a scenario where we continue sliding downward in equities and other risk assets then have a typical (average) recovery time from peak, to trough, to inflation adjusted peak. The rising equity glidepath and starting with several years in cash/cash equivalents definitely smoothed things out bigtime. The biggest risk to that strategy is continued high (5-6%+) inflation for another decade. The best hedge against this is even the most part time of jobs, which should theoretically improve the numbers for anyone even in the 1-3X JAFI spending levels.

Western Red Cedar
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by Western Red Cedar »

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:01 pm
We have extremely similar approach to WR% and drawdown strategy.....maybe because I've read every post in that series, at least 2-3 times.

Is that a combined HH net worth? How many years of expenses does it currently represent?
I'm guessing you may have planted some seeds in regards to the drawdown strategy. I spent a while looking through your journal in between sets at the gym last night but couldn't actually locate the discussion on your strategy. Lots of other good stuff in there though ;)

The NW is household. About 82% of that is "mine." It represents roughly 17.5 years of household expenses. 12.5% of that constitutes personal pension contributions. I still calculate that into my NW because I could access that if I wanted, but for SWR purposes I deduct that from my projections. If I quit today the pension would kick off about 1.5 JAFI per year at 65, and is adjusted for inflation when I access it. SS would kick in approximately 1.2 JAFI at 65 with no additional income. So, excluding the pension contributions, we currently could access 14k at 4% or 10.5k at 3% per year to lay the path for SemiERE vagabonding adventures. We'll see how the markets continue to perform, but those numbers will likely look better as we continue to save.

I'm still not regularly tracking expenses, but our lifestyle is pretty locked in and tends to average around 2k per month - possibly slightly higher now that rent has jumped up to 975 per month. Our grocery spending has been a bit higher lately too, but I've been less concerned about the money and more focused on higher quality food. The major expenses that bump our spending tend to be car maintenance and travel - both of which should be mitigated with a slow-travel transition. Medical expenses are also a bit of an unknown, but I know those tend to be quite low abroad.

I actually haven't made it all the way through Big ERN's series yet, but have read a lot of it and a few of the posts 3-4 times. He really caused me to think a lot more about sequence of returns risks, which led to the rising equity glide path strategy. I was previously thinking about keeping 2-3 years of cash on hand, but that isn't really necessary so I figure there are low-risk options to get a small return. I'll need to research more on a cd ladder vs a treasure ladder - viewtopic.php?t=12536 - and would be curious on your thoughts on that.

The drawdown strategy I laid out above seems to gel really well with a SemiERE approach because it provides one with a couple years of very minimal risk to test out a lifestyle without a traditional job. The resume gap isn't much of an impediment to returning to work after that period if SHTF and the markets perform poorly. There isn't significant risk to the portfolio because you haven't started selling equities. I think it would also allow a year or two of Roth conversions from my 457.

Honestly, the biggest risk I see is not wanting to return to an office/white collar environment. The professional inertia makes it pretty easy to go through the motions, but I think returning to that environment and the pressure would be quite challenging following a long period of freedom and adventure. Fortunately, there are plenty of other options for part-time (or even full-time) work. Some of those could fit in well with the WOG. It is just a little more complicated navigating those decisions when in a relationship, because both partners need to be on board.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Western Red Cedar's Journal

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Interestingly enough, we too were looking to purchase a home earlier in the year and held a large uninvested liquid position that's being dumped in slowly over the last/next few months. For identical reasons decided against a purchase, for now. Too much of a ball and chain for wanderlustin' vagabonders.

I stopped sharing/oversharing here a bit due to the exposed nature of the journals, so while I had posted drawdown strategy in detail, those posts have been long sanitized.

Our household is currently sitting right at 25-26 times our actual trailing expenses over the past year. Normally this would give me a little bit of pause to completely walk away from work, as I was always in the 30-33x camp. Then I realized a few things;

The markets are already down quite a bit from their highs
Our spending has quite a bit of fat in it, and will drop with slow travel and geo-arbitrage
We are completely open to serendipitous opportunities to make/save some capital while doing something interesting in the future.
A rising equity glidepath prevents us from having to dip into any shares for the next 5-7 years, the average bear market lasted 82 months from peak to trough to inflation adjusted new all time highs

We're starting with a 60/40 allocation and sliding to 95/5 over 10 years.

Right now you can buy treasuries paying more than CD's, a few years ago the opposite was true. I have a 5 year CD ladder that's been maturing and I'm not quite sure what to roll it in to. 12 month CD's paying 3.1-3.25% and Treasuries ~4%. CD's are just simpler for me based on where I hold those funds.

ERN just released another post yesterday, in the SWR series. The 4% rule is back ;)

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