Pandemic, Protests/Riots and the Stock Market

[Nomad]

The US is the main economic power in the world in terms of the market capitalisation of companies listed on its various stock markets.
Recently, the COVID pandemic has closed down many workplaces and this week there have been protests about police brutality that have escalated into full scale riots in many cities.

However, the stock markets are still up on where they were a month ago - and seem to defy gravity.
Is there going to be an almighty drop some time soon?
What is going on here...

[jacob]

This: viewtopic.php?p=217110#p217110

[Alphaville]

this is pre-riots, but...

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/ ... al-economy

[TimeTravel]

The stock market has a life of it's own. That's why time and time again folks have failed trying to time the market.

[IlliniDave]

From a layman's perspective it is counterintuitive and a little unsettling. Coincidentally it also means I'm closing in on the point where it will be time to lower my equity exposure, so my process somewhat aligns with my instincts which isn't always the case. There does seem to be a dichotomy that isn't explained solely by optimism the economy will bounce all the way back quickly/soon. From a "Main St." level I don't think I've heard anyone express that view. There is concern about the short/medium term future of the social structure all across the spectrum. I've heard it from deeply left talking heads and deeply right ones. Agreement about anything across that span is rare these days in my anecdotal experience. Could be some of the structural things mentioned, I'm not in a position to comment. I tend to look to human behavior (inherently a blend of rational and irrational) for explanations about price movements that aren't tied to obvious news/events. That approach doesn't immediately provide any insight into the subject dynamic.

[nomadscientist]

I think we're seeing left equivalent of lockdown protests here, for the most part, and the acceptance and success reflects the left's much greater social power in US society. Although a few locals at the very start may have rioted to assert their own strength, and therefore reduce the risk of future attacks on them by police, it quickly became a distant/white/activist-dominated activity. Reasons:

1. "I wanna haircut!" - attending protests about vague and distant causes is a social activity rather than directly functional one; the point is to get out of the house and meet people. Urbanite left was going stir crazy the same as flyover right.

2. "I wanna go to church!" - political activism has replaced Abrahamic religions for the left in its functions of providing group identity, charismatic mass gathering opportunities, and an unshakeble moral dogma. Denying church attendance "just" because people are dying is a denial of the religion itself: it denies the central claim of any religion which is that its importance transcends mere death of individual believers let alone infidels. So denying flyover the right to go to church is the state saying the Christian god is false. Denying urbanite the right to go to a progressive demonstration is saying progressivism is false.

The left has functionally opened up America, at least from where I am standing. Early last week the streets were empty as the exercising-because-bored crowd has clearly found less exerting ways to pass the time. Today, looked back to normal apart from the masks. Unless there is a big spike in the next days, it will become impossible politically to resist the pressure to reopen.

[Mister Imperceptible]

[George the original one]

The left has functionally opened up America, at least from where I am standing. Early last week the streets were empty as the exercising-because-bored crowd has clearly found less exerting ways to pass the time. Today, looked back to normal apart from the masks. Unless there is a big spike in the next days, it will become impossible politically to resist the pressure to reopen.

Oh, come on. The shutdown was never a full shutdown. There is no right-left dichotomy as far as actual re-opening activities. Highway traffic here has been steadily increasing for a month. My county has been in phase 1 of re-opening for nearly 2 weeks and is moving to phase 2 on Saturday.

Many states are not so fortunate. Here on the West Coast, for instance, California, Utah, and especially Arizona have continued to have increasing rates of infections since the national peak back in early April. California's new cases seem to be the result of expanded testing because deaths are not correspondingly increasing, but I seriously doubt that's true in Utah and Arizona.

[7Wannabe5]

The oligarchy is fully global.

[Alphaville]

this morning’s federal unemployment (who measures these things?*) shows up at 13.3%, which is back from 14.7% and thus lower than expected?

*rhetorical question, bureau of labor statistics

[jacob]

Yes, 2.5 million payrolls were added in May vs an expected loss of 8.3 million jobs. => Stocks are up ~3% this morning.

[Freedom_2018]

From my limited experience, I have never been able to make money by guessing what the market will do or trying to find an explanation for its behavior. Only made money by focusing on my own valuation criteria and then rebalancing if needed. Mostly it has been to do nothing.