guitar player's journal

[guitarplayer]

Thanks @DutchGirl, very interesting to read that it is about the clock! There wouldn’t be a problem just turning the whole thing off when not in use, we have this very cool Swiss mechanical socket plug timer (I posted a photo in something from nothin log) that I actually use as a time teller as it has a wee mechanical clock as part of the mechanism.

Once we find one on offer I will likely look up its manual to check as well.

To add to my update: it is a sunny 20ish degree Celsius day in Glasgow and I am basking on the east facing balcony the whole morning reading Economics. I missed such a spot to bask in the sun a lot!

ETA: We got a free microwave. It is an ASDA (cheap supermarket chain) brand and towards the lower end of efficiency with output/input power ratio being around 60% - I read the average is around 71%. It is smaller than our previous one but we just about (with some fiddling) manage to fit in out ovenproof dish for cooking veggies. The max power is 700W.

The bonus is this: since the microwave has a mechanical timer (that you turn to set to x minutes and get it working), I can couple it with my plug-in socket timer, set for say 15min and at the same time set the plug-in timer for 6 am. Then whatever I cook is warm and ready for when I wake up, at the same time using cheap electricity. Would not be able to pull this off with a more modern microwave where timers and all setup are electronic, because we would not be able to set the cooking time without the microwave switched on.

[Western Red Cedar]

I've been enjoying the outdoors and away from the forum at times over the summer. Somehow I missed that you purchased a flat. Congratulations!

What are your impressions of Glasgow in comparison to other cities you've lived in? How would you describe the character, spirit, and aesthetic of the city? I remember Bourdain saying it was one of his favorite cities in the world.

[guitarplayer]

Thanks @WRC, it feels good to have it done as I have been looking for one for a long time and it was taking quite some of my time on occasions. Though in a sense, it is not much different from purchasing a bicycle or a fridge, other than the fact that flats have not entered the waste stream the same way bicycles or fridges did! Otherwise we would be looking for one for free The one we have we could have purchased outright which makes me comfortable enough.

After nearly a year in Glasgow, and most of it in the central commercial area - it seems a massively mixed city. Certainly the most diverse place in Scotland in terms of population. Architecturally, Victorian buildings sometimes face modern highways and it often does not look pretty. At the same the city holds lots of beauty if you look close. It really is a mixed bag.

It feels decadent. You have Glasgow near the bottom in terms of healthy / disability free life expectancy (around 56yo at birth for 2018-2020) and the life expectancy in the UK at / near the bottom (2013-2015 data) with 73.4 / 78.8 male/female split. It has been dubbed 'the sick man of Europe'. Perhaps for partly for this reason (and other reasons in the past), a left leaning city.

It also feels like it's being massively gentrified. I cycle around all the time picking up free stuff and meet lots of people of various ages and backgrounds. All say they love it here, from students to retired folk. People on benefits, retired priests and doctors, immigrants. There are large city improvement schemes and we now live in the midst of one. There are at least two tool sharing schemes where I plan to sign up for one - they have all sorts of tools for $40/year, from hammers to circular saws by DeWalt. Very green, many people are into gardening. After recent appearance on the forum I checked and turns out we have a hacker space as well. All these other reasons for the left leaning tendencies.

Glaswegians have dry and dark humor, it being the case arguably in the UK generally but more so here I think.

But I am still discovering the place. Also, painting the place with my own lens (as always if asked for impressions). Give me a shout if you're ever around!

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2023 update 35/52

Job

048/156 weeks in (ca. 30.8%).

Turns out I am heading out for an international statistical conference next week. Also, launched my journey to becoming a chartered statistician in a few years if I stick about, though I scratch my head asking what's in it over and above status.

I will be migrating some work from SAS to R I have decided, should be worth it in terms of coherence.

Thinking, it is two conferences in less than a year for an entry level position. It truly is the case that 'ask, and it shall be given you' in this instance and I am grateful for it. I reciprocate and am there when any short notice high profile work needs done and I can do it etc. Also, grateful to some ERE forumites who one way or another gave me initial steer for going about things.

Investment Curriculum and Maths

In the context of the work I am doing now, I should be marrying the Investment Curriculum knowledge to the lived experience. Still refreshing the first 8 chapters.

I am on a waiting list for the Python-driven module at my Uni. The employer is fine to pay for it, just that the uni is looking for tutors. Hope I will get it, I generally don't rely on tutors much anyway.

Flat

We have met all but two neighbours, all seem nice and like peace and quiet. Excellent. I fixed an issue with the water tank upstairs. We managed to scavenge a perfectly working (though a slight bit rusty) microwave with an output/input power ratio of around 60% which is rather poor but I'll take it for now and it was free. We also managed to find a free slow cooker as the 'high setting' in the old one stopped working. The new free slow cooker is better quality than the old one, and the bonus is that the old stoneware dish fits the new one as well. We will try to fix the old one - there is actually a repair cafe nearby, something similar to the place @mF does shifts at pouring beer and fixing bikes.

We also got 10 nice looking plants from a girl who is moving to France to teach.

2025

I will try to build some identity based goals based around (to be progressed)

- Becoming a master statistician / data scientist
-- be a statistician / data scientist who...
- Reduce (further) stuff and stick to the simple, relatively meaningful and mostly happy life we lead
-- be an owner who...
- Mastering waste streams, close the loops, de-prioritize the use of money further
-- be a designer who...

[guitarplayer]

2023 update 36/52

Job

049/156 weeks in.

Spent the last week at a conference, spoke to a few people in various fields.

Further on the migration work, I will be setting up things in Quarto (i.e. in R) - there are echos of 'setting up a website ERE style' in it as well as some takeaways from the conference. I see it as a conjunction of my experience with LaTeX and more recent experience with programming.

I participated in a workshop on debugging and unit testing which I aim to incorporate in the analysis.

@J&G's remarks about people in the music industry (musicians) wanting money like no other - this I feel sometimes applies to academia as well. This is nothing new, we have academics on the forum saying the same.

Nearly a year in, I notice first signs of the honeymoon period perhaps fading somewhat.

Investment Curriculum and Maths

I am now doing the Python-driven module at my Uni. This applied computational mathematics.

I went through flashcards of 'Economics in Context' that I had made in 2020 for my OU course.

Flat

I had someone come over to take the old entrance door that was sitting in our storage room - left by the previous owner. The person who came to collect it is a DIY person building some sort of structure in their back garden and using doors as walls. I will get a photo once ready. They also have a nice refurbished delivery van converted into a world tourer that I visited with clever sleeping solutions and generally very pretty. I now have a contact from whom I can borrow electric plane - which is good as I need to trim doors in the flat's bedroom (they are too low for the fitted carpet).

2025

The structure for identity based goals now is:

- Becoming a master statistician / data scientist
-- be a statistician / data scientist who...
- Reduce (further) stuff and stick to the simple, relatively meaningful and mostly happy life we lead
-- be an owner who...
- Mastering waste streams, close the loops, de-prioritize the use of money further
-- be a designer who...

But goals are static and recently inspired by @Basuragomi's entry about web of flows I have been thinking about web of flows, web of skills, web of skill sets. Go over and above goals as goals change. Skill sets seem more generalizable, maybe.

This is also another way of saying that I have been overtly interacting with the ERE book and ideas the past week.

[ertyu]

Another thing that gives me the heebie-jeebies about identity based goals is, say i fail at a goal, do i feel like a failed person now? or am i left without an identity? i tend to ground mine in values, though I am aware this too is not a perfect solution as the only thing one needs to act against one's values is circumstances that suck enough (e.g. being in a war or in a concentration camp)

[guitarplayer]

Yeah I see what you mean @ertyu, though you can just take that goals are there as an aim. Like in @mF's illustrations where you have the archer aiming. Or Victor Frankl talks about the value of idealism in this sense.

Stoically, one could have the four goals of justice, courage, temperance and wisdom, though that's pretty general.

================================================================================

I read / skimmed through C40's journal and feel inspired (by the way @2B1S if you are reading this, post a travel update!)

So, riding the inspiration wave, I feel like setting out some aspects of the ERE1 journey that would use development. I think I will backtrack and look at the FI aspect of ERE1 first. Things to do here would be:

* put together a true monthly spending.

In our previous rural setting this was not needed because of our arrangement where lots of stuff was deducted from pre-tax salaries. Now our outgoings are not that significant either, but for example we have a mortgage on a flat and obviously pay various bills so track this.

* decide how to build the FI system.

There are a few things to consider here.

First, DW and I are accruing national insurance contribution years through working. Having 35 years of these contributions (and it is possible to buy these voluntarily for not that much in not in employment or abroad) gives DW and I about £10,300/annum income each from 35/32 years into the future. To what extent these will still be around in more than three decades? £20,600/annum is more than we have ever spent in a single year, and maybe about amount for the year when we went for a month trip to South America. Not long ago it occurred to me that there is this heap of money waiting for us a while from now and that, well, it sort of solves the old-age-money equation via the other ERE facets (low outgoings etc). If it stays as is. In fact, if it stays as is then I would worry not to over save for old age so as not to cross the income tax threshold which is now at £12,570 (so just over £2,000 from full state pension - but this will probably happen anyway). I sort of feel since we are contributing to the national insurance there is a certain entitlement to drawing it. In the UK FIRE scene most if not all seem to take state pension for granted and not as going away.

Second, I am currently accruing a CPI linked defined benefit pension. There is now about £1,400/annum in it that I will start receiving in 32 years, it grows by about £700-£1000 per year. I can also voluntarily buy more if it and I see that at my age it costs about £680/month for a year to accrue an extra £1324/annum. To what extent this is a bullet proof pension and what is the chance of this defaulting? I think the chance is very small. But then this in conjunction with the full state pension would imply paying income tax. Unless the state pension erodes somehow maybe. Guess it is difficult to know about these things so far ahead! It is possible to take out some lump sum from the defined benefit pension, and also to start drawing early thus reducing the annual amount.

Third, there is the Defined Contribution pension of DW (5% of gross salary + 10% from employer) and potentially the Self Investment Pension Plan (SIPP) which is somewhat similar to 401(k) I think (but employer does not contribute here, it is just tax advantages). Funds from this can be drawn from 55 years of age (raising to 58), so could work as a bridge between 55/58 and 68.

Fourth, there is the ISAs. We have been mostly investing in these so far (which I guess was not the smartest idea but well everyone has to start somewhere). I need to get way smarter with investing in ISAs as my choices so far were arguably average / poor and timing was definitely terrible with a load of stocks bought literally a week or so before the start of the pandemic and another batch a couple of weeks before the start of Russia-Ukraine war. These would be the retirement accounts between whenever we retire and the SIPP age of 55/58, so need to put these investments in order. At the moment we hold mostly UK stocks and the question is to what extent invest in global market.

Fifth, We have recently bought a flat at 5.49% over 5 years with 2 years fixed interest and the question is if it is a good idea to pay it off after 2 years of fixed interest fee. At the moment I think it is a good idea, the total interest would cost around £5,500 this way.

Overall, at the moment I feel like the task is basically plugging a hole between now and some time when we are in our 50s/60s. the 'Runaway mode' seems much less significant and I am keen to operate at the +5% SWR from ISAs (i.e. the accounts that can be accessed at any time).

I might come up with some figures and maybe take a few charts from @C40 and adopt them. Though given the above, I think I would need to adjust them quite a bit.

[basuragomi]

The big issue I had with a web of goals is that goals are highly reducible to values, such that any one action fulfills multiple goals. If you weren't facing some fundamental incompatibility or keeping your goals highly specific, a web-of-goals quickly collapses into a completely connected graph which isn't helpful. I can see a web of skills having the same issue, where a hierarchy of skills makes drawing a line between a skill to a given action really complex to show on paper. Mapping some permutation of skills:values::flows:goals might give some insight though?

[guitarplayer]

This is some graduate level ERE thinking @basuragomi!

P.S. my ambition for chart building is slowly fizzling out.. thought I will still attempt it even if for personal guidance.

It is tricky to fit in all that I would like to talk or write about in a post. Maybe I should change the format again and move from weekly to bi-weekly or monthly.

@WRC, about the attitude in Glasgow, was waiting at a street crossing for the red light to turn green with a bunch of folk when a Glaswegian (I assume) on a wheelchair carrying a dog saw no point of both pedestrians and cars both waiting for the light to change and promptly went on to run the red light at a pace of about 3km/h. Made my afternoon.

[avalok]

Glad to hear you're settling into your flat and that neighbours are friendly.

How are you finding the Brue-McConnell Economics book so far? I noticed you had put some thoughts on the relevant threads elsewhere and thought I'd pick it up as well.

FWIW I would consider defined benefit pension schemes in the UK to be very safe: depending on the fund size (in terms of members), they are almost guaranteed to be bailed out by the govt in the case of failure, because the alternative would be political suicide. That they are protected from catastrophic failure doesn't prevent the terms of the benefit from degrading though: previous generations had final salary schemes, but these are rare to find now.

[guitarplayer]

Thanks for the input @avalok!

Re Brue-McConnell Economics, I wrote some thoughts in the relevant threads but I am not sure if this is the best format for me to go through the material. Maybe it would have been easier to read those books before some extensive ERE dives and participating in the forum, ha! What I mean is that few if any things in there are new to me (and probably you). But I still see value in reading it in terms of learning the lingo, the framework. A realisation of some more general principles, if you will. Lots of people speak this language so it might be good to become more fluent to easily get what they are saying and to relate better.

That said, my reading of it stalled round about chapter 9 I think, right after the 'Behavioural Economics' Chapter. But it is good you are mentioning it, I should get on with it. Do you have any ideas about how to go through the material in a constructive way, also for other forum participants?

I think I stopped reading it as now I need to do a bit of Boydian OODA (observe-orient-decide-act) loops. I fell out of rhythm with the house move. But now I realise, actually it is almost 'our 5 minutes' in terms of building a conventional FIRE since both DW and I have conventional jobs that pay relatively well and that, surprisingly, we are comfortable and happy with for now! So I better get on with learning economics, investing, diversifying and refraining from buying stocks just before crashes before our total cash invested in stocks crosses 6 figures which it is just about almost there already.

Re the DB pension, yeah I think I need to put some more faith in the UK political system, it's been through a lot, heaps of experience there. Part of me wants to load wheelbarrows of money into this DB scheme as it has many nice properties in terms of flexibility. Defined benefit for life from the state pension age, but can be drawn 10 years earlier with an actuarial reduction. Then can be further reduced by taking out a 25% lump sum. So these account for if the State Pension is doing well as I'd like to optimise for tax past the state pension age. Conversely, if the State Pension does not fare well (erodes), it is also possible to buy out the actuarial reduction with cash and start drawing the full amount from 58-60 years old (I assume state pension age will move to 70 in 3-4 decades).

But then you sort of question the whole exercise as it seems so easy and perhaps almost too easy to be true. Then maybe it is a sort of riding the system and having an easy ride. Like mentioned above, I had a read through @C40's journal and I felt similar with the van and motorcycle adventures where one could say it was riding the whole oil fueled transportation system and one could do adventures of the sort cycling or walking (I'd do that, @theanimal does something like it). Which would have been harder in a similar way to how investing in individual dividend paying stocks is harder compared to dumping wheelbarrow loads of cash on a DB pension scheme

Anyway, was gonna write something in your journal a while back but forgot so will do that now. [EDIT: not true, I have actually written there what I wanted!)

[avalok]

Re Brue-McConnell Economics ... Do you have any ideas about how to go through the material in a constructive way, also for other forum participants?

Yeah, the book has been only covering familiar ground so far. No doubt I will need to slow down, but a lot of the first three chapters (where I am up to) could be skim-read.

I must admit figuring out how to work with the material is something I have struggled with on the Bodie Investments book as well. Merely reading is insufficient for one to solidify their understanding, but I find making notes is best suited to exams, not learning for life. I have thought before that a sandbox environment where the ideas could be played out would really help increase understanding, as it would feedback on what does [not] work and why.

Now I realise, actually it is almost 'our 5 minutes' in terms of building a conventional FIRE since both DW and I have conventional jobs that pay relatively well and that, surprisingly, we are comfortable and happy with for now! So I better get on with learning economics, investing, diversifying

Yeah, the more we accumulate, the more I realise the responsibility for stewardship of our capital. Especially so once a mortgage is paid off, which strong investing can easily take a back seat to. It's a nice problem to have, but not an easy one to answer.

Re the DB pension ... Maybe it is a sort of riding the system and having an easy ride.

From an ERE perspective, it is about as fire-and-forget as they come, there isn't even the ability to choose from a limited selection of provider funds. Though I think riding the wave is true for pretty much any non-SIPP pension plan in the UK, whether DB or DC: you don't choose the providers, fund choice is very limited, the investment process is obfuscated behind a payslip. One crosses their fingers and hopes all will be well once the money becomes available.

Despite many DB schemes being too big to fail, it is definitely worthwhile questioning how much to put into it. The benefits could degrade over time such that the deal becomes pretty poor, and as this would likely happen over a period of years and governments, there is less likely to be backlash against it. I don't recall any noise over the end to final salary schemes in local government back in 2013.

[guitarplayer]

I have thought before that a sandbox environment where the ideas could be played out would really help increase understanding, as it would feedback on what does [not] work and why.

This is what I was hinting at when talking earlier up about learning the stuff in the context of life to kennen rather than wissen. @C40’s journal is good like that in that it motivates like so. Obviously a unique story in terms of timing and location.

I have been talking with DW about the 4 pot solution ISA->SIPP->DB pension -> state pension and that it is crucial we know crystal clear how our outgoings are. This is difficult already in a diad, to be 100% open about it. But we are aiming for it, if there is one great edge of us it is that we are two people pretty much aligned on quite a few things.

Was talking about it with DW and she said ‘yeah we should basically do it as if we run a company’. Sweet.

[sky]

Government attempts to mitigate various crises through subsidies generally lead to inflation. As the number and intensity of crises grows, it can be expected that inflation will grow. Inflation devalues the defined benefit pension and any annuity type payment that is not inflation adjusted.

If you believe that we are entering a period in history of various crises, then a defined benefit pension should not be your only source of income, particularly over the long term.

[guitarplayer]

Good point @sky, thanks; and the contrary argument can be made with regards to such inflation adjusted instruments.

[avalok]

I think I need to read C40's journal to understand what you mean. A good excuse because I think it has been mentioned as a really good read before.

Obviously a sandbox environment can be created by setting aside some capital for learning purposes. It is considered disposable so can be more comfortably used to try new approaches, asset classes etc. A couple of downsides are that feedback loops are slow; how long until you know your valuation was wrong? It could be years. The other is that a single, very important, lesson might preclude making any other progress by wiping out the sandboxed capital.

[guitarplayer]

Yeah basically if ere book is a textbook, that journal is a textbook example.

That is one example of a sandbox environment, but I for one am planing to take DW up on the idea of running the household like a business which gives a broader perspective to it. Couple this with sober realisation of decoupling of price and value, maybe we’ll get somewhere new.

[jacob]

I think I need to read C40's journal to understand what you mean. A good excuse because I think it has been mentioned as a really good read before.

It's sort of an unofficial rule of thumb that it takes 500 "replies" in a journal to hit the FIRE which it that starting line of the more interesting part of life. So go to viewforum.php?f=9 and read through the journals that have reached the 500+ level for even more examples.

(Goodhart's Law aside, 500 instances of "engagement" seems to cover the combination of focus and effort.)

[guitarplayer]

Yeah this journal is tinted by the Goodhart’s Law in this regard in that I’m half gaming it not to reach 500 too quickly but just now I’m doing myself a disfavour in my effort.maybe I’ll revert to posting monthly.

I never thought about filtering journals with the condition though that sounds good

[jacob]

I never thought about filtering journals with the condition though that sounds good

Goodhart's law strikes again

[avalok]

Sorry, I misunderstood what you were suggesting regarding the household-as-business plan; I thought it was specific to the pension.

I think I'm more with you now. Is this mostly about tracking household spending, budgeting explicitly, perhaps running inventories of stuff?

So go to viewforum.php?f=9 and read through the journals that have reached the 500+ level for even more examples.

Thanks. C40's is indeed a good read. I'm going to pencil in time to read others for inspiration.