@Ego: O.k. I didn't know that. Looks like I need to take my rage posting down a notch because this is not the grotesque abuse of mathematification that I thought it was.
From the Imperial College report: "The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the
second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times
greater than the maximum supply in both countries.
Whoops, looks like the Imperial College acknowledges that their own "worst case scenario" doesn't account for something they predict to happen. Assuming I have the right paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf
), their central point is not to present a worst case scenario, but to outline strategies that would not overwhelm ICU capacity in the U.S. and U.K. I admit that I thought Kennon made up the numbers based on his own model without stating assumptions, which is why I was so mad. He instead abuses other peoples numbers, the advantage here is that assumptions can be examined.
The point of Kennon's article is that we need to look at the trade off between the economic costs and loss of life. These are big decisions and brashley making comparisons based on incorrect assumptions and incomplete models is not doing anyone any favors nor does it help us examine trade offs.
@Augustus: Thanks for the compliment, but don't confuse the fact that I work in a hospital with me having actual medical training. I was trained solely for my job and honestly being an audio technician for years prepared me more for my specific job than any of the shallow medical knowledge I acquired during "training." My job has nothing to do with the part of medicine that's important for this pandemic. I am actually out of work because surgeries are largely cancelled and my skills are non-transferable. Even trained medical professionals such as doctors or nurses, who have a depth of general medical knowledge (which again, I do not), are still highly specialized. As usual, the crowd here is different and I think the medical professionals here have made conservative and accurate statements where they acknowledge their level of expertise and how it relates to this issue.